“Hey Rock, wanna see me pull a rabbit outta my hat?”
Everything you need to know about finance today from an ancient but very adult cartoon series. Even had a Fearless Leader in it…and a socialist at that.
The Battle to Save America is not over yet, I’m pleased to report. Although a modest rally in stocks today ain’t even the tip of the iceberg.
Why is there reason for optimism until sometime in 2017 and maybe into 2018?
I’d like to thank George Noory for asking the fine questions last night.
In terms of optimism – and why I expect the market to rally nicely to new highs into late summer – the reasons are pretty clear if you know where to look.
For one, the Fed has been goosing the M1 – and we will be anxious to see if the annualized rate of increase basis the three month rolling average tops 12% when the data comes out after the close. Simply: When Fed policy is “loose” some of the money is bound to end up chasing stock prices.
Second reason, then?
Well, when the long-term decline in bond yield (which began in 1985 or so) is over, rising bond rates will decrease the net present value of the underlying. The hot money will become less interested in stodgy old bonds, but on the flip side, stocks which are somewhat akin to hard assets (they represent some assets as shares of a company, eh?) will begin to look more attractive and up will go stocks.
Maybe not as high as when the Fed raised three times ahead of the 1929 market blow off. It should be clear the Fed is trying to pass through the next three to five years in a more even state of affairs. Still, a blow off up in stocks is a possibility.
When you step back from the white board a ways (and stop sniffing the marker, please…my turn…) what comes into focus is that stocks look pretty good compared to real estate and other competing asset classes, too.
Reason being? Liquidity. When I am at my wild-eyed best in stock trading, I am never more than 3- days (to settlement) from being able to get my money out of harms way. Not so in other assets. Few nibbles on our airplane ad, even though the price is down, so consumers are not flush with cash or willing to take on big personal debt for much. There’s still a good bit of sitting on the wallet..and when this changes, look out above (not below).
Sure, look at politics.
Ask any Hillary backer and they will assure you she is the cat’s meow and the vote is a formality. Bernie supporters and also confident the convention can be opened. And Trump supporters? Well, they just KNOW the Donald will be the next president.
Eric Hofer, a longshoreman/philosopher from years back wrote a dandy little book called “The True Believer.”
One of his best quotes in the book went to the idea “Show me a true Nazi and I will show you a true Communist.”
People are like that – facts be danged – they want to be True Believers.
That’s why you can talk to a Cruz supporter. Its why the term “climate denier” was invented, that and social(ist) media. It’s all a control trip, it’s all a popularity contest, because the power aggregating freaks in office live and breathe this power stuff and the way to get more is to drum up more believers and followers.
In case you haven’t noticed, we don’t do much following around here. Whether that’s good, bad, or unAmerican, I suppose could be argued. But an open mind and underwear do have something in common: It’s good to change both, once in a while, as the facts change.
This morning, the market looks to bump up 50, or so, at the open, but we still half expect a decline to the bottom of the trend channel – but more for our www.peoplenomics.com subscribers tomorrow.
At some point in here, we will agree that the large wave III (from the 2011-12 lows) ended and we are finishing off IV, and that should pave the way to short-term Nirvana. But it will be like a cheap drug high.
Come the 2017-2018 area the reality of our world will come into view.
Cell phones are replacing who rooms in homes. Who even needs a television, if you have a streaming account? No den for reading, that’s what the Kindle apps are for. No sound room for the audiophiles. MP3s and ear buds.
All of which is why my son, who in addition to being an HIV/AIDS researcher at the big university in Seattle, loves the new apartment complex he’s the resident manager for in Seattle: The world has changed. If you can’t live in 400 square feet, you haven’t moved into the new world.
Still, while the housing footprints will shrink, so will reserves of pension funds. The Robots are coming to take all our jobs. And as one article noted recently, the scifi crowd though AI would make computers really smart and they would be the threat. Yet as I explained earlier this week, you just need an addictive time-wasting database (social media) and the crack-headed monkeys will press buttons all day and will be the zombies the comics warned us about.
Seriously (from the I shit you not department) Go out to any good foody joint this weekend and watch people sitting across the table from one another texting instead of being present in the here and now.
Those, dear reader, are the Zombies. They are here and they support all three major OS’s.
And they all have FB accounts.
Very short term: a week or three, maybe into June Fed and ECB decisions, we waffle. Then a summer into fall rally.
But look at how past first years have looked for other presidents.
Bush the second came in January of 2001 and made it to September 11 before the crap hit the fan.
Ditto Obama coming in during 2009: Markets were in freefall for a couple of more months.
Is there any reason to expect a different play this time around? Depends if you’ve been a a whipping cream party already, this morning. (Kiddy note: Look at the propellant in canned whipping cream sometime and think nitrous, right?)
So enjoy “Blessed Friday.”
As those of us with real plans for Life would explain, except most of the planet is Social Zombified: Friday means only two more working days until Monday.
And yes, we are soooo screwed.
Let’s party like it’s 1929, shall we?
The News that Isn’t
We are sad to report the EgyptAir plane has not mysteriously popped back onto radar.
Yes, Gravity has not been repealed, but does the idiotic mainstream have to keep rerunning the same search footage… me? I’ll be down the hall puking, thanks.
Feds and Fetuses
Now that Oklahoma Legislature passes bill criminalizing abortion, we will be counting the seconds until the runaway central government decides that it’s not a State issue and the Feds will rule.
With Scalia gone from the bench, who’s to stop ‘em?
The Blame Game
You can see how the Social Media Anarchy, digital game of thrones version, is played if you follow this one:
Check it, Charlie: Black Kids Matter, right yo?
Surprise, surprise…it maybe wasn’t about race, after all. Maybe it was just about acting badly…but we will keep an eye on this and see what the facts offer.
Conservative Trolls are a fact of hyperspace. Cops? A fact of pimping.
But hey, never let a chance to be divisive go by, I always say. Hand me another linguistic Mollytov, wouldja?
I repeat for the hard of thinking: Most of the shit that keeps us from being the United States of America comes from social(ist) media. Mostly the twits don’t grok it. But they weren’t grok-it scientists in the first place.
Well, enough of this common sensical moderate fact-oriented, poll reading logical stuff. I have to rest up for next week’s housing data and another eye appointment Monday.
Have a fine weekend and enjoy all the features of Gomorrah. Plumbing checks optional. Watch that pillar of salt on the way out.