You DID Pay Attention, Right?
It seems to happen every month, but on which day is only semi-predictable. And the amount of month-end sell-off is uneven, as well…
Still, as we have advised Peoplenomics.com subscribers, there is usually a day toward the end of the month when Big Money squares up with Banks (and whoever). Seems to be based on an almost mechanistic requirement, but we get a Big Drop. That was yesterday.
This morning, we get the “after-drop rally.” The Futures are showing +310 so a blow off of 400 or more is possible today, or this week. We continue sitting on the sidelines. Cash in a bank trumps trash in a tank. Helps us sleep better knowing we’re three clicks from parking in USTreasuries in the event the final high comes in early.
We don’t expect that: In fact, a couple of months into the New Year, seems more likely.
Sound economic reasoning? Sure – goes like this:
We know that May 29, 1929, the market put in its trading low prior to the final run up to the Sep. 3, 1929 high. We ran out the number of trading days on the Peoplenomics side. Because they had things like Saturday sessions back then.
At any rate, we have a target for an all-time high next year predicated on this flimsiest of logic.
Interventions Muck Shit Up, Though
Truth be told, though, there are really two aspects of the 1929 Replay rolling out, right now. Not sure which one will hold. Here’s Case #1:
- The first argues that the legit all-time high was back in February of this year. While the market may kiss 30,000 on the Dow this week, it’s a “phony rally” in the sense that it’s all based on huge amounts of “made-up money” (MUM). The effect of this has been to press the “after legit high” bounce to an even higher level and extend it to what would now be May of 1930.
The question here is: “How much different would be Great Depression have been if the Fed had thrown (variously reported as) $4-trillion to $7-trillion in both direct printing of M1 &M2 (call that $3.8-trillion).
But then (thanks Covid!) tossing in uncountable trillions in “such a deals” attempting to lure hedge funds, banks, and whoever else could roll some spendable jack, into the marketplace.
Congress had a strong hand in the (so far, one-time) Covid stimulus. So, all of this would merely be a matter of “waiting for shoes to drop” except there is a competing scenario that we’re also diligently tracking… We call this?
This scenario posits we are going higher – a lot higher – because when we line up the 2009 major market bottom and the 1920-2921 lows, the resulting chart offers an alignment where we have just been through the “red arrow” area in the chart below. From here, we could rally up to the “green arrow area” and then collapse from there.
There is also a third scenario. In this case, we get a bastardized hybrid of the events of both 1929 athan where rational markets and price discovery sans intervention would otherwise drive.
Bar talk: A Good 5? Joint
Since trying to scam a living – ahead of 7.7-billion other irrational upright apes who can also press apps – is enough to drive us all to drink, let’s consider the problem of “Where to get buzzed?”
We can knock one whole country off pub-crawl planning: UK bars, cinemas may require proof of COVID-19 vaccination to visit. And those are where? Carry what risk? And cost how much?
We had the good sense to stock the cellar in advance in the East Texas Outback, figuring trouble would be along. Sure enough, North Texas bars face closures as COVID-19 hospitalizations exceed Gov. Abbott’s limit. We’re too old for bar-hopping. Besides, drinking and driving is stupid (unless you own both an insurance company and a law firm).
We’ve been waiting for this to climb into “news rotations” ever since Slate chanted three weeks ago “Shut Down and Bail Out the Bars. Shut Down and Bail Out the Bars.”
The problem with money for the “liquid part” of the Hospitality Industry, is how would you feel – say after rehab and 10-years of meetings, higher insurance payments due to a DUI – to find government even considering paying to keep bars open? Not like it couldn’t happen, either: Long Beach City Council to consider $5 million ‘resiliency fund’ for restaurants, bars. BARS? WTF? With tax money?
In Idaho, drinks at home loom large: Central District Health warns four Treasure Valley bars of violations against public health . Out West (and south a bit) San Diego Parents Debate Fauci’s Guidance to Close Bars but Keep Schools Open.
None of this is making much sense.
The core issue is America Loves to Buzz. Caffeine for the morning upper and something for a late in the day chill pill. With oxy’s costing an arm and leg now, and with Mexican dirt weed still overpriced, the “liver damage option” is still out there.
But, seriously: If the Buy-em/Kamunist government wants to cheer up America, what about a good five-cent joint? Or, as least some cheaper THC gummies?
“What this country needs is a good five-cent cigar” was popularized by Thomas Riley Marshall, vice under Woodrow Wilson.”
Yo! Kamunist! How’zabout it? “What this country needs if a good five-cent joint”? Come on baby! Light up our lives a bit!
Asthma Suffering Pays!
Did you see the report, by the way, that asthma sufferers have a 30% lower chance of contracting the dreaded ‘rona?
With 72 fast-approaching, I really miss the good-old days. When Contact still had some belladonna in it. Fabulous for what ails me. Albuterol works, sure. But, where’s the fun in that?
Why do we make things that work illegal? That bothers me sometimes.
Is Regulation and Enforcement the real “Biggest Business in America?”
Funny How Big Data Works
Dug into another marvelous book on the Kindle last night. “It’s Kind of a Cute Story” where Walt Disney Imagineer Rolly Crump lays out his history. Hell of a fine ride, too. From joining the Imagineers, says in Wikipedia, Crump…
“… became a designer of some of Disneyland‘s attractions and shops, including The Haunted Mansion, Enchanted Tiki Room and Adventureland Bazaar. As well as his work at Disney, he designed innovative and satirical psychedelic posters in the early and mid 1960s, including several for the West Coast Pop Art Experimental Band as well as logos for the band’s singer Bob Markley. He also designed guitar string packaging for Ernie Ball.”
Yep, bot some of them Ball strings in the studio as spares.
Here’s what struck me: I mean since we live in the world of Big Data now.
What are the odds that one R. Crump would do Haunted Mansion while one letter away there was this other genius America art/cartoonist fellow I also enjoy: R. Crumb.
Robert Crumb was the guy behind those “stepping out” figures from the “Keep on Truckin” slogans, cartoons, T-shirts and more. Besides “Fritz the Cat” (which Zeus studies intently for human behavior clues) R. Crumb created Mr. Natural, Angelfood McSpade, and the Snoid.
Tough call: Haunted Mansion or Snoid…hmm…
Thought we’d point it out as an odd cluster in the Dataverse that I happened to be noticing last night. R. Crump and R. Crumb. (Hand me ‘nother one of them “five-cent gummies” would yah?)
Credit Card Burn
So – with the market rallying like mad this morning – how much did we collectively piss away on MUS (More Useless Shit) on Black Friday and Hyper’s Monday? Amazon says sellers racked up $4.8 billion in global sales over holiday weekend.
Elsewhere, noticed the Forbes crews have been at the adding machines all night, too: Black Friday Online Sales Were $9 Billion, While In-Store Traffic Was Down.
Whether we meet expectations (which were high, in case you missed Cyber Monday will be the biggest online shopping day in US history and sales could reach $12.7 billion, analysts say) may not be known for another few days.
I find that a nice pure vanilla extract, poured liberally on burns (such as credit-card burned fingers) is just what the doctor ordered.
Next year, I’m getting me a liquid cooled mouse! Yeah, baby!
Real News Tomorrow
ADP jobs, Fed boss Powell speaks. We’ve been trying to sort of which nickname to pin on him. Choices include Jerry, Romey, Jay, Jeronimo, jeje, Romeo, says “nicknamefinder.com.”
Beige Book tomorrow afternoon. But they really gotta get some spray paint in their lives and kick it up a bit. Beige? (Blah!!!)
Scare the Herd!
Hmm… let’s see if anything in the morning news rotation is scary enough to hoax us into giving our consent to be governed, and over-taxed, shall we?
Good reporting by ABC on MSN (no idea how that happens, computers, I ‘spose): In the story Cold blast all the way to the Gulf Coast, snow continues for Eastern Lakes, there wasn’t a single use of the hackneyed phrase “climate change.” Hell, I thought it was a law in corporate-owned media that whenever weather was mentioned, it had to be blamed on climate change. Well, isn’t this refreshing? Hype on vacation, fellers?
Who’s afraid of the Big Bad NorK? North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, family given experimental coronavirus vaccine from China, analyst says.
And speaking of China, which has a decent down payment on America going: Asia stocks rise as private survey shows China’s factory activity growth hit 10-year high.
Nope, not much there that compels me to throw 20% (OK, more then) of our income to the FedGov.
Ham and scalloped potatoes with a couple of eggs over-easy. Yum.
Which would be a waistline concern, except that it’s cold out here in the sticks: 24F outside and 29F in the shop this morning. 64 in the office…
Mornings like this I remind myself for next year not to give myself a late-fall buzz cut. The old #2 guide on the clippers shortened the survivors a bit too much in early October. A thicker mane of “grow-it-Ureself-insulation” would be useful today.
Zeus the Cat is curled up around the heater in the office.
November is special for Zeus. He gets a pass on rodent patrol on cold mornings like this. Because all the rats have now been elected to office.
Zeus politely waits for them to be seated. Refuses to read POTUS tweets now.
Has Joephoria jumped species now?
Everything’s a Business Model, right Hunter? Inquiring minds want to know: What channel is Sanity on?
Write when it warms up, thaws out, or offers a rebate,