Peoplenomics “Book of Larger Contexts”

We stray from our usual track this morning  to lay out a kind of “Here’s How It All Works” report that’s some 7,000 words in length.

Lots of charts, too.

We cover everything from the immigration debate – and explain how it’s really a fundamental economic issue.  In addition, we walk-through why a Trump Tax Cut is a horrible idea and could easily backfire.

And all, when you think about it – which we do this morning – then leads to the even-larger context of governments repudiating fixed convertibility for money.

What frightens us most is that governments worldwide are moving to simply “make up” valuations of fiat money on the weak argument that terrorism could be fostered by cash.

That’s not a lie, per se.  More like an incredible stretch of the truth.  Which in turn begs the question whether tax cuts beget cashless, cashless begets floating scrip, and in the end panic as paper money heads for the scrap heap.

Definitely a “three-cupper” of a report.

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Peoplenomics “Book of Larger Contexts” — 24 Comments

  1. G: I question your assumption that the rise in LGBT movement is some how lowering childbirth rates…Are you saying that all the gay/lesb/whatevers would be somehow reproducing ala Leave it to Beaver times( leaving out the numbers for lesb insemination and gays renting wombs, which would only skew the numbers further not in favor of your argument) if this movement did not go mainstream….Think not, they just would have mostly live closeted childless lives like their predecessors ..Ok maybe a small percentile would have married and done a minor amount of reproducing..Lets call that even with the artf insem etc numbers currently……..Or are you saying there are more LGBT’S now v.s previous generations….Most studies I have read show the number pretty much constant over long stretches of time….I also call BS on you tax jazz..I don’t know where you shop, but most things I shop for have risen over the last decade…esp based in declining dollar values( inflation)…Tax cuts are more needed now…. Screw the def. numbers…Do really think it ever has been paid off ?…. NEVER, since 1776….Not kidding…

      • As George has defended his position on the increase of lgbt, I better understand his observation. I too challenged it upon my first reading.

        I think what he’s saying is the social taboos that once caused people to not come out or stay closeted are now allowing more people to identify something less than totally straight. Many are choosing not to procreate till maybe later in life if at all. Not saying nobody is making babies though as the bldg I live in has seen a boom in newborns.

        I think Facebook has over 50 sexual identities now. Gender fluid seems to be the increasingly new normal .

        Something else I’ve ve noticed that tends to go along with these rebellious child protesters who cant seem to express why their protesting is many adult young people are shaving their body hair. As though they are trying to prevent an adult appearance. I think that also goes hand in hand with the fact many of todays young adults seem insensed when the world their helicopter parents protected them from shows the realities of being an independent adult. They dont seem to have the skills to deal with adversity except to protest and throw tantrums. Hence the terms micro- aggressions, and the need for safe rooms-spaces for example.

        I was reading where law students at Harvard have to have trigger warnings now from the professor when words like violate are spoken. They cant even discuss how to prosecute a rape case without being offended at something the teacher is trying to teach them.

        I think many cause and effects have created a generation that finds black and white decision making and duscussions of differing views intolerable because theyve never been allowed as children to settle anything on their own. Their parents were there to mediate everything.

      • That gets closer to it. I haven’t gone deeply into the psychological shift of the generation-replacement process (no money in it, lol) but it’s clear that the old pressures to remain “in closet” are gone and in their place? Many reasons to actually pick the LBGTQ lifestyle in lieu of straight..ergo, the BLGTQ fraction will grow and fewer what I think of a “sham marriages” will result. It will be hard to find enough LG couples of make up for the declines here, but that’s something for demographers to argue.
        My point was that without immigration and baby-making, we are facing the same kind of demographic bomb that has gone off in Russia. It’s been going off for 10-years now and can be traced back to articles like http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/drunken-nation-russia%E2%80%99s-depopulation-bomb
        Which then gets me to the basis of the big overview article this weekend: Where will growth come from?
        You can’t have falling birth rates, strengthen dollars, and hope for a better balance of trade and deficit reduction for long…something’ll have to give.

      • Still BS …the numbers remain relatively constant…Just cause it is more”acceptable” to be gay/ whatever now does not mean less births from THAT GROUP…prior to todays acceptance the gays etc would have been priests ,nuns, crazy old maids, batchelor uncles, etc AND still not have added to the birth count of those prev generations. It is the vast group of straights that are not reproducing because they CAN’T AFFORD TO…Will DEF check back with you in Dec…Jobs and Tax cuts and term limits like NOW!!!!…..No comment on how the def has never been paid off going back to 1776?…Funny…..

      • Come on Ned,
        Just because you don’t like data doesn’t invalidate it. There is a HUGE marketing effort of LBG underway. Trust me, I’m not thrilled with it. But it is real and here are some additional coincidental facts:
        1. Marketing of alt-sex-persuasion is going on in classrooms/curriculum in red many states.
        2. Pew Research data LBG% 2008 was total of 2.7%, same source says 2014 tge % was up to 4.3% (60% AGR in 5 is meaningful to me) You can’t use individual reports…when you look at year on year comparisons they have to be from the same source and Pew meets this test of data integrity.
        3. NBER says LGB pop is seriously under-estimated as are anti-gay groups http://www.nber.org/papers/w19508
        Now, on the budget we need to be clear: The US nave never been really “out of debt” What has changed is the size of the deficit from year to year.
        The US gov after ran at a profit (meaning the deficit was actually reduced) from 1998 to 2001. Deficit was actually reduced… Supporting data here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD/ It was the payoff of the internet bubble.
        I have never said that the budget would ever be paid off and I’ve written extensively that’s why we have had four changes in our “funny money” paper in 250 years. Our paper is not durable. Try buying something with a Greenback, lol./
        Like I said I don’t like the data…but it does have implications.
        And one of the implicates of a Trump tax cut (in a rising rates environment) is that it will set off inflation big-time and there are enough of us who will have to wait more than a year for a COLA to mil pensions of Social Sec that we’ll be screwed.
        Trump might be able to make the case if the Fed would freeze rates and if congress would put money into job creation but with the Ryan clown posse, I just don’t see how this ends happily which is why our longer-term outlook is less than chipper.
        Hand me another Prozac, wouldja?

    • As in the days of Noah, shall the end times be. George is right, these things must increase as we get closer to the end of this age.

  2. Yes, you should worry about the hit to our Social Security pensions if we lose illegals’ contribution to it:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/undocumented-immigrants-and-taxes/499604/

    George, could you spare us the hand wringing whine about how the birth rate (that would be necessary to keep Soc Sec solvent)and Lefties will collapse the economy. Your arguments are all frame, no picture. Also that tearjerker about not being in the 7 figures…and now you realize that your real estate is not affordable to most Americans (Bernie’s theme that Trump stole), so mark your price down if necessary.. Yes, the stock market could stay on helium for apprx 10 mos, but the luxury real estate market is starting to crack:
    http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-residential-luxury-apartment-year-end-report-olshan-2016-12

    BTW, Trump took credit for the stock mkt going up, according to a Brookings Institution advisor, “don’t take credit for the mkt going up, because you’re setting yourself up to take the blame when the mkt goes down”
    (above paragraph only)quoted from Elliot Wave Financial Forecast 2/3/2017

    • Well since Geo took off the reply tab on his last rant I will respond here … No doubt MSM and our fascist educationistas are pumping the LGBT whatever agenda very hard, but if you think that is enough to turn a significant number of straight persons to the other side then we have WAY bigger problems than you not getting your cola…guess you will have to work harder on your investments, clicks on these websites ,and ebooks…Think you need some cheese with that whine Geo….

  3. Amos 8 oh ye that swallow up the needy and make the poor of the land to fail. Falsifying the balances by deceit

    • The more complete KJV quote would be:

      Hear this, O ye that swallow up the needy, even to make the poor of the land to fail,
      5
      Saying, When will the new moon be gone, that we may sell corn? and the sabbath, that we may set forth wheat, making the ephah small, and the shekel great, and falsifying the balances by deceit?
      6
      That we may buy the poor for silver, and the needy for a pair of shoes; yea, and sell the refuse of the wheat?
      7
      The LORD hath sworn by the excellency of Jacob, Surely I will never forget any of their works.
      8
      Shall not the land tremble for this, and every one mourn that dwelleth therein? and it shall rise up wholly as a flood; and it shall be cast out and drowned, as by the flood of Egypt.
      9
      And it shall come to pass in that day, saith the Lord GOD, that I will cause the sun to go down at noon, and I will darken the earth in the clear day:
      10
      And I will turn your feasts into mourning, and all your songs into lamentation; and I will bring up sackcloth upon all loins, and baldness upon every head; and I will make it as the mourning of an only son, and the end thereof as a bitter day.

      (You always need to look a few verses either side to get context methinks)
      The bald heads and the sackcloth makes me think in post-nuclear terms…just saying.

      • Matthew 24:37-39 For just as the days of Noah were, so the presence of the Son of man will be.38 For as they were in those days before the Flood, eating and drinking, men marrying and women being given in marriage, until the day that Noah entered into the ark,39 and they took no note until the Flood came and swept them all away, so the presence of the Son of man will be

  4. Intelligence is all that is required to see where overpopulation is taking us. I propose that people of color have little awareness of that issue while whites do.

    • I’m not certain it is a racial realization – equal or greater chance it relates to educational attainment levels. While these do vary by race, the DNA is less suspect than the education levels. And, there are some religions that market reproduction while middle America moved on when the birth control pill came along…

  5. Interesting George when you read post containing liberals the left progressives etc LGBT and according to them all the evils of our society, yet lack the knowledge or simply forget that it was a conservative heading the high court who ushered it all in, and that was the arch conservative Sandra Day O’Conner Reagans pick to head the high court, and her statement “we the high court are determined to bring this country into the 21st century” then attacked religion so they could bring in the LGBT movement lol you just have to love them..

  6. I also want to add, I know of several retail outlets that sell furniture. January was a horrible month and the two months prior also were iffy at best, but the last week of those months did bring the month in, close to normal sales levels for said time of year but still down from past years.

    There is a distinct difference between one of the stores vs the other. The store that caters in higher end name brand furnishings is doing more business than the other store, that is situated in a much more democratic/liberal neighborhood/section of town, that has more medium to lower priced items.

    I think republicans are spending money more freely and democrats are being more cautious. Both stores are seeing reduced sales in general, though. It appears the people are spooked a little with the current political situation. I have no other explanation other than we did have some bad weather in January, but people didn’t go out afterwards and make up for it by purchasing more when the weather let up. Sales are still weak. I think its an indicator that people perceive potential hard times ahead. That reduction in spending may have already started.

    • Yeah, by golly, I think you’re getting onto it here.
      When you talk about the reduction in spending happening, it’s why in the report I mention that a concerted anti-Trump “stop shopping” movement could bring on immediate collapse. Otherwise, it will be a slowly snowballing effect as the negativistic media ‘sells us into Depression” and once their, a new New world Order will be rolled out – and we are in war by 2024.

  7. George, you mentioned that the declining birth rate is in some part caused by the political endorsement of the LGBT movement. What I find at fault with that statement is, Lesbians and gay males are raising more children (both conceived and adopted) now and openly, than any time I can think of. If anything, LG people are helping with adding population, not its decline.

    The decline in population, especially the white population, is that much of the people of color have religious affiliations that promote births and are not real supportive of the LGBT community. Maybe this is why? Because a sense of strength in numbers goes along with having high birth rates and LGBT don’t normally reproduce. I’ve always thought thats why most religions frowned upon homosexuality. Because it didn’t produce more followers to be inducted into their ranks, not to mention money to be gained by tithing.

    The bigger question is why are white people not reproducing as quickly as people of color? Is it because the church doesn’t have as much of a hold on whites anymore?

    One thing that also puzzles me is how liberals are protesting over Trump’s ban, which impacts Muslims mostly. Muslims don’t approve of abortion, gay marriage/equality/ female equality, but the liberal progressives will riot over any perceived ban on them. Muslim thinking is more in line with republicans. This is why I think many Muslims, especially those in leadership positions, see the left and those who protest in their support, as useful idiots. Just thinking out loud.

    PS – Im not a religious person myself, although I was raised in the Catholic faith.

    • We disagree on this. (I just added a couple of charts – fam ily formation and crude birth rate) so you can see the longer picture. What’s interesting/anecdotal is that the bump back up in the crude birth rate in the 1990-1991 period (befrore it resumed its decline) was this was the period when the AIDS/HIV scare was ramping up.
      When you say “What I find at fault with that statement is, Lesbians and gay males are raising more children (both conceived and adopted) now and openly, than any time I can think of. If anything, LG people are helping with adding population, not its decline. ”
      I look at this as a “parenting SHIFT, not something that will spur NEW POPULATION GROWTH. In terms of economic stimulus the two are distinctly different.
      Nice that the LG community is raising more children, but that is unlikely to staunch the declining crude birth rate.
      Remember, we live in an economic system that only does one thing well: Produce to excess. We have no mechanisms for controlled descent. Instead we have periodical crashes. This is the demographic point I was getting to in the discussion.
      LG family rearing just rearranges the occupants of the deck chairs on the Titanic. It doesn’t weld the below waterline rip.

      • The biggest influencer is the culture combined with the knock out punch of a taken over dumbed down education system combined with an attack on morals, values, and principles. Look at the sickening vile, demonic, disgusting, vulgar, pornagraphic and violent flood of sickness that is called entertainment. Just those messages alone repeated in every sphere everyday defies the goodness imbedded in the spirit of life. When one adds in the globalist takeover of the USA which has taken us into 10 illegal wars in 24 years, you see that this evil is everywhere. The treasure of the USA has been expended to destroy itself from within. A shell of a country that has been carved out to hasten it’s defeat to pit brother against brother, sister against sister, Parents against children, children against parents, and all manner of in betweens. As they set us on fire and pit race against race and women against men and men against women and sex designations against traditional roles. As the governments and corporations set up to rule over us, we can be free in knowing who the eternal slaveholders and traders are and who the eternal slaves are as it has been and ever more shall be until the end of the age. Edgar Cayce said the half times are at an end and we are living in the end of the age. As for me, I will serve the living God. Will you join me?