Phone rang at 6:37 AM. My consigliere was on the horn. He got up early to run the numbers:
“Latest rate-of-rise calculations I’ve run for the Oroville dam is that it is likely pass capacity before dinnertime tonight in California. 12 to 14 hours from now. Looks like the emergency spillway will be eaten-back, too…because the downhill slope is not covered with anything. Just bare soil, so when the emergency spillway fails, it will eat down to bedrock and work back toward the lake.”
“Flip over to the San Jose Mercury News and look at the water being dumped.”
The second picture shows the downhill side of the emergency spillway.
This morning’s hydrology lesson is simple when we checked out California Water Resource photogs:
This much water:
Now picture twice as much water flowing in desperate efforts to lower the lake. Simple enough, then. And, by our back-of-the-envelope, there will be more breaking this afternoon’ish.
Downstream prepping has been ongoing. The Sacramento Weir was opened Wednesday and such.
Once it lets loose, officials will have only a four day break before more rain shows up. And additional 2 and 2/3’rds inches of rain is due by a week from Sunday.
This could be a real mess and after the dam is damaged, the MSM will probably give us nearly a week of mass hysteria ahead of coming rains.
Sequence of events? Dam is topped tonight, emergency spillway use begins and then we see how far and fast the earth erosion back toward the dam is.
“Weather News” – The Trade in Trite Tripe
Another “snowpocalype” (Snowsteria) is passing into the history books.
As I sat down at the keyboard, and since I was talking to a fellow up in North Dakota yesterday, I decided that people in the Northeast should now feel so “special” when it comes to weather.
So I set about a reality check. New York City will almost thaw at 30°F. Boston will warm to 21°F today and Philly? Damn near tropical at 33°F this afternoon.
Tomorrow night, West Yellowstone, Montana will hit 0°F.
Yes, it snowed. Yes it caused problems for the Northeast. No, it’s not the end of the world. It continues, however, to be winter.
Trump Bash du Jour
So many choices….hmmm….Let’s roll with the Washington Post’s “Travel ban ruling: In court as on Twitter, Trump confronts evidence gap.”
As to the court ruling from the 9th Circus? Always been one of the most liberal of the courts since it dispenses to the left coast.
But wait: Couldn’t Trump simply withdraw and write a “court-proof” E.O. and end run that way? I mean there is NO LIMIT ON E.O.s that I’ve ever heard of, is there?
Wait…if that’s the case, while does it take a nutter in the Outback to figure this stuff out? Clear air and strong coffee of Texas, perhaps.
Interesting note over here by Pat Buchanan who figures a clipping of the court’s wings is long overdue.
You mean they shouldn’t be allowed to “legislate from the bench?” Amen, brother. Laws get passed by the legislative branch. “Judging the application of the law” isn’t about (in effect) re-writing them.
‘Course the open border/pro invasion supporters will scream to get this to the SupCo before Gorsuch becomes a potential swing judge on the matter… so goes life in the blender.
Hey…speaking of open borders are bad for you, try this one on:
Another Terror Plot in France
So much for the innocent women and children, huh? (Yeah, yeah, don’t confuse the open borders/invasion discourse with facts…no one references them anymore…’Specially not here on Social Media Crazed Subjecto Planet.)
Yeah….speaking of planets, we come around to UFO’s. Big international UFO conference will be going on today through Sunday in Scottsdale, AZ.
A couple of highlights: One is the future of alien abduction research…been a hole there since the death of Bud Hopkins in 2011 and Dr. John E. Mack in 2004. Also on tap is a new Jamie Fox film on the Phoenix Lights case 20-years on. Meanwhile, Back On Earth…
Gas Prices to Rise
Pronto, too. You can see it in this morning’s report of Import Prices:
All Imports: Import prices increased 0.4 percent in January following a 0.5-percent advance in December.
The price index for overall imports has trended up since March 2016 and rose 3.7 percent over the past year.
The advance between January 2016 and January 2017 was the largest 12-month rise since the index increased 5.1 percent in February 2012.
Fuel Imports: Prices for import fuel rose 5.8 percent in January following an increase of 6.6 percent in
December. In January, higher prices for both petroleum and natural gas contributed to the overall rise in fuel prices. Petroleum prices rose 5.2 percent and natural gas prices increased 12.2 percent in January, after both indexes advanced in the previous month.
Import fuel prices increased 57.6 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year rise since the index advanced 61.7 percent in March 2010. Petroleum prices rose 60.9 percent for the year ended in January and natural gas prices advanced 45.0 percent over the same period.
All Exports: Export prices ticked up 0.1 percent in January, following a 0.4-percent increase in December.
Rising prices for nonagricultural exports more than offset falling agricultural prices in each of the 2 months.
With the exception of a 0.8-percent drop in August 2016, export prices have trended up since April 2016 and rose 2.3 percent for the year ended in January. The 2.3-percent rise was the largest 12-month advance since the index increased 2.6 percent between January 2011 and January 2012.”
I assume you know when gas prices go up, they will trigger a big hike in consumer price index numbers and the bond market will fall, stocks will do a last gap splurge and then we’ll been in the poo?
Other than that, market futures up about 30 on the Dow. The real test will be seeing if the S&P 500 can hold above the 2,300 mark for the week.
Gold has waivered a bit and BTCs down to $975…which could be tough because if they don’t make a NEW HIGH, it will be “lights out for BTC’s within 4-years, or so.
Coming up in our Peoplenomics report Saturday: Why the Trump Tax Cuts are a BAD, BAD Idea.
Ya’ll come back Monday, ya’hear?