Is Bitcoin Back from the Dead? A Technical Note

There’s a Lazarus story to be told in the charts this morning, and since other media are reactive (not proactive) here we go again looking into the future ahead of the pack.

Yes, I am still a skeptic.  But an honest one at that, and we can see in the latest chart I’ve drawn up for you to look at, how the Bitcoin revolution could be back – with a vengeance and new highs – over the balance of summer.

But it’s not a sure thing, by any stretch, because we don’t yet know whether the decline from all-times highs was impulsive or corrective, in nature.

What I will mention is that Bitcoins are now closing in on the $600 (dollar) range again, and a break out over the $700 area will likely mean a fresh run of Bitcoins to the $1,700 to $2,100 area.  For those who have been patient, this gets to be pretty nice prospects.

However, the cautionary note is that it could still collapse before the $700 level and go down to fresh lows…it all depends on how the markets work out.

Let me run through the chart I’ve cobbled up – based on a chart from www.bitcoincharts.com which is a fine source for the underlying data.

First, a discussion about how I draw charts.  It’s my own kluge of a system, but it works well for me.

You begin with a major decline and draw a line ‘a’ down the successive tops on the way down.

Next, you copy this line and slide it down to the bottom of the first major spike down.  This is labeled line ‘b’ in my chart.

The next step is to use a graphs tool to draw a line indicating the distance from line ‘a’ to line ‘b’ and we call this line ‘c’.

Now, you copy line ‘c’ and place it above line ‘a’ so that you can then copy line ‘a’ and place the copy (line ‘e’) equidistant from the ‘a’ line.

In other words, you have ‘b’ the same distance down as ‘e’ is on the upper side.

This defines a price channel.

No, it is not as mathematically precise as crunching the 2-standard deviation trend channel, but it’s easy as pi and it’s easily shown to the visually oriented learner.

You will see that I have also labeled an Elliott wave 1 down, a 2 up, and 3 down on the chart.

The impulsive/corrective question devolves to estimating whether this is a wave 4, which implies a 5 (and new all-time lows) or whether it is a major fresh move.

A more aggressive way to draw the chart suggests that the breakout is already in play and took place around the $525 area.  But that doesn’t end the daunting problem of the Elliott wave 2 peak which will define the current move as a wave 4 (with 5 down to come) or a new C move to the higher highs.

There are two “deal points” implied by the charts.

First is that either the $700 range will be critical or the breakout is well underway already, depending on how you draw charts.

The reason is simple:  A move above $700 will infer that the price of Bitcoins is “going out of channel” to the upside and that may be time to climb aboard.  Or, the move over $525 or so, was the breakout and it’s now game on.

There’s time to be thoughtful.  Remember in Elliott wave theory, the new highs (that $1,700 to $2,100 kind of range) is not entirely “in the bag” until the old decline peak (2) has been exceeded.  That would be in the $920 area, approximately. 

If Bitcoins break above this level, then it becomes a (relatively) lower risk to acquire some and settle in for what could be a 3-6 month ride to new all-time highs.

No, I’m not a buyer of Bitcoins yet, but I’m watching.

Also, don’t forget that according to IRS, in an advisory published in March, Bitcoin “profits” are taxable:

IR-2014-36, March. 25, 2014

WASHINGTON — The Internal Revenue Service today issued a notice providing answers to frequently asked questions (FAQs) on virtual currency, such as bitcoin. These FAQs provide basic information on the U.S. federal tax implications of transactions in, or transactions that use, virtual currency.

In some environments, virtual currency operates like “real” currency — i.e., the coin and paper money of the United States or of any other country that is designated as legal tender, circulates, and is customarily used and accepted as a medium of exchange in the country of issuance — but it does not have legal tender status in any jurisdiction.

The notice provides that virtual currency is treated as property for U.S. federal tax purposes.  General tax principles that apply to property transactions apply to transactions using virtual currency.  Among other things, this means that:

  • Wages paid to employees using virtual currency are taxable to the employee, must be reported by an employer on a Form W-2, and are subject to federal income tax withholding and payroll taxes.
  • Payments using virtual currency made to independent contractors and other service providers are taxable and self-employment tax rules generally apply.  Normally, payers must issue Form 1099.
  • The character of gain or loss from the sale or exchange of virtual currency depends on whether the virtual currency is a capital asset in the hands of the taxpayer.
  • A payment made using virtual currency is subject to information reporting to the same extent as any other payment made in property.

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Peoplenomics: A Few Memorial Day Socioeconomic Notes

Markets being closed for the holiday, our comments today will be brief as we’ll be considering the key metric that any customer of any organization gets to ask – any time and anywhere. Sure, we pour untold billions into defense, and yeah – maybe you can’t put a dollar value on it – but this being Memorial Day, we ask anyway: Are we getting our monies worth? I think I can show you convincingly that military might doesn’t come from the checkbook. It comes from what’s between our ears.

Fine Line for Preppers: When Does It Become Hoarding?

I don’t often mention my little sister who retired from Boeing HR a few years ago, but she’s got an absolutely fascinating job in her “semi-retired” state working with people who have serious hoarding issues. This week, we had a discussion of what makes a hoarder, and what does not, and we’ll discuss the economics of it and outlook this morning. While it’s true that “not everyone has to be a Minimalist” hoarding dysfunction comes in all kinds of flavors and with it (and here’s where it gets interesting) comes the question about where prepping fits. So pull up some coffee (and your breakfast MRE) and sitcherbuttdown. Gonna do us some housekeeping between the ears.

A World Changing Weekend Ahead?

This morning it’s a little hard to call….we don’t know how it will work out.

But the election this weekend in Ukraine could set all kinds of balls in motion (or under the chopping block) depending on how orderly, believable, and acceptable to all parties the results of the Sunday polling turn out.

The rebel government in Kiev (the Western media won’t call it that, but it was a coup, let’s at least be honest, shall we?) attacked the OTHER rebels (those in the eastern part of the country who want nothing to do with Maidan and who are closer to the Russians than they are the European Union.

Since peacefully settling things is not happening (yet), the answer is gunfire and at least two died in overnight fighting in the Donetsk region this morning.

But a few dead bodies about may be the least of the world’s problems.

Prince Charles recently likened Vlad Putin to Hitler, and mentioning the Germans when the Russians lost something like 20-million in World War Two (going from memory, fact check that) is not what you do if you’re trying to build bridges and friendship.

So it’s not surprising that the Russians are demanding an explanation for what the Kremlin is calling outrageous remarks.

The West is doing its best to do a replay of Ted Mack’s  The Original Amateur Hour with the Russians so far pivoting on Ukraine and signing a nearly half-trillion dollar gas pipeline deal with China.

And, as if that’s not enough, the End Timers will be running to Scripture to see how Russia and China holding naval warfare drills this week might fit into where the world is going…beyond to hell in a handbasket.

Not to give any hints, but Isaiah 11:6  (KJV) goes something like “The wolf also shall dwell with the lamb, and the leopard shall lie down with the kid; and the calf and the young lion and the fatling together; and a little child shall lead them.” But it doesn’t mention naval exercises.

What’s more, many of the End Timers refer to “lion laying down with the lamb” as a major marker of [whatever] but that phrase doesn’t appear in the Bible.  Just so’s you know…just a marketing deal, near as I can figure it, but it stuck.  Like “…things go better with…” or “Quality is job…”  Positioning, marketing, sticky words for soft minds.  “Oh, oh, oh, what a feeling…” and so it goes.

Back to point ( I know…do we have to? Yes, I need breakfast at some point.)…

Besides Ukraine, the other biggie the market is trying to overlook is the existing home sales were still lower than year ago numbers and we may see that in the Tuesday report next week from Case Shiller/S&P (etc.) on 20 city home prices.

Why, I can hardly wait, for these things to work out.  It’s the same kind of “can’t hardly wait to see how this ends” that went through my head as a kid when I was racing on my bike, hit some gravel and was falling, falling, falling toward the ground wonder “Gee, I wonder how this ends?”

We should get some answers next week, but the markets so far this week seem to be hitting the holiday sauce a little ahead of schedule.

We usually get a run-up into major holidays, but this is nuts.  Therefore, I’ll go out on a limb and predict new highs in at least the S&P before Memorial Day.

Any forecast I make is sure to drive a silver stake into the market, so plan on down a hundred by the close.

Maybe.

Speaking of this Ad

I don’t usually comment on ads, but just so you know, tomorrow wraps up National Dog Bite Prevention Week.

And I’m proud to report that I have made it through another year without biting a dog.

Hagel Said WHAT?

“21st Century World Order” being built.   On The Pentagon Channel:

May be a bit slow due to millions of pings on the site…

Playing Your “Hot Buttons”

It’s what sells ad space, after all, so let’s see what gives this morning:

On the other hand, and to re-center a bit:  We note that Boulder, CO has moved a rubber duck race Monday to an inflatable pool.  This is fallout from those record rains last fall up there.  Somehow, won’t be the same….

Auuummmmm…….

Iran:  Defending or Warmongering?

We have to wonder when “Iran publicly boars of attack plan against the US Navy…”

And this comes amidst this other “don’t miss” report.

Russians may be additional (8) nuclear reactors for Iran.

Interesting discussion of the Saudi role in what’s going on may be found over here.

Driving: US Crazy

With the arrival of the summer driving season next week we are seeing a lot of headlines about trends in the auto world, and this year’s crop of pre-summer reports is less than encouraging.

Detroit, for example has become CarsJack City, says a report over here.

And if the carjackers don’t get you, gas prices might:  They’re at their longest stretch ever at over $3 a gallon.

I used to be really pissy about gasoline prices, blaming the oil industry for the holdup.  But then I got to looking at the tax load placed on gasoline.

California and New York are both in the 50-cent range with state taxes alone.  Hawaii is about 47-cents.  Here in Texas, it’s 20 cents a gallon of state tax.  Look up your state on the Tax Foundation website over here.

And then you read how the governor of South Dakota is looking at this goldmine of government tax money.  South Dakota is presently ranked 28th in gas taxes (24 cents a gallon) but political types just can’t keep their hand out of your pocket, can they?

When you toss in the 18.4 cents of federal tax on gasoline (24.4 cents on diesel) you can quickly see how the first 25 to 70-cents a gallon of gas price is really taxes.

Most people bitch about the price, but 20% of price is tax, darned near (depending on state).

Where There Is Growth

Three of the top 10 fastest growing spots in the country are in this here state:  Texas.  Also, Houston is now about 938,000 bigger than Dallas.  But Dallasonians can count Fort Worth, so the battle over who is biggest in Texas will continue.  San Antonio (1.4 mil) is bigger than Dallas, too, but don’t tell J.R. that.

Jobs:  Helps to be a Foreigner

You can’t make up things like this from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The unemployment rate for the foreign born in the United States was 6.9 percent in 2013, down from 8.1 percent in 2012, the U.S.

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Coping: “Automatic Writing” in the WoWW

World of Woo-Woo time, again.  So gather round the coffee cup and follow this morning’s adventure into places people don’t go…

I mentioned in Thursday’s column that I was planning to conduct a little experiment with “automatic writing” and we talked a bit about what that is (psychography).  One of my undisclosed (until now) motivation was that occasionally when I am writing (which I do a fair amount of) I occasionally “connect with my Muse…” 

Turns out there is more than one Muse to connect with, because when you Wiki Muse, you find this:

The Muses, the personification of knowledge and the arts, especially literature, dance and music, are the nine daughters [2] of Zeus and Mnemosyne [3] (who was memory personified). Sometimes they are referred to as water nymphs, associated with the springs of Helicon and with Pieris. According to Pausanias in the later 2nd century AD,[4] there were three original Muses [5] , worshiped on Mount Helicon in Boeotia. In later tradition, four Muses were recognised: Thelxinoë, Aoed?, Arche, and Melet?, said to be daughters of Zeus and Plusia or of Uranus. In Renaissance and Neoclassical art, the dissemination of emblem books such as Cesare Ripa‘s Iconologia (1593 and many further editions) helped standardize the depiction of the Muses in sculpture and painting.

Which one of the “nine daughters” I connect with (now and then) would be interesting. 

Still, it gets to the idea that writers (after a long stretch of writing) may be more inclined to “tap” automatic writing.

When my “Muse”  shows up, words appear in my head that lead writing off in one direction, or another, often in directions that I hadn’t expected to go.  But until Thursday afternoon, I hadn’t really tried to hold a “session” with these words.

The process is simple enough:  There’s a kind of dark gray LCD “screen” in my mind’s eye and all I need to do in order to tap into new thoughts and ideas is glance at it once in a while.  That’s it.  Mind’s eye, gray screen, black letters in no particular kind of font, and words appear.  Odd?  Sure.  Useful?  Well, I never run out of words to write, if that’s the question.

But what would happen if I just shut down the rational side of brain for a while and wrote the words that flowed onto this “screen””?”  Would they make any sense?  My conscious words (self-directed) are contained in brackets.  The responses from “the screen” are in italics.  Here’s what happened….

[ So write something for me…]

This automatic empirical contact within the topic hangover ordinarily shuts down conversation. Whenever you’ll find truculent happiness, and lust, overhaul your thinking.

Potatoes carrots and beets gardened in season in order for truffles to grow persist, emulation of humanity flourishes.

Hundspine overflows archetypically within/between the world, spiraling through the cosmos.

[Hundspine? Who is Hundspine?]

Hundspine is overlord of this planet and he is Gettysburg. Resourceful convincing and oppulent his savings are resources shared among peoples of Earth.

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Thai’ing One on: Now it’s a Coup

There’s a battle on for your mind, and you’re losing.

That’s OK.  If you’re married, in a relationship, or been there, done that, you’ve already lost your mind, anyway, but this morning’s headlines remind us of just how powerful little words are.

Take “coup” for example.

When the mobgov, with US and EU backing staged a coup in Ukraine it was called a “change of government.”

When the government went from democratic to taken over by the military in Thailand, well now we haul out the words military coup.

It isn’t funny how this stuff works.  It’s BS.

Meantime, if you’re following the Ukraine lingo-jingo, you’ll find headlines like “Ukraine rebels attack soldiers as Russia says troops withdrawing.”

Fine, except what’s not explicitly defined is that the “soldiers” being attacked are (themselves) rebels who seized power in the Western-backed coup.

I don’t mind people in Ukraine having a vote this weekend.  But what I do mind is when “computational statecraft” dictates that our tax dollars get committed to keeping the gas flowing to Ukraine. 

Big Trouble in China

How to you say “Regional insurrection in China?”

Well, you don’t.  If you’re western media, you paper this one over and chalk it up to terrorists because to do anything else would hint that the worker’s paradise ain’t such a happy place, after all..  Can’t have that.

The pot simmers, but none dare point it out because you know who buys our bonds and keeps us afloat.  Yep, thems must be terrorists, indeedy.

Happy Talk Rallies Markets

OK, so the Russians may not have left their border areas completely, just yet.  Still, the very prospect of such has buoyed markets.

Yesterdays bear-side fleecer-gasser was a 158 point gain in the Dow.  But today the markets are about flat, awaiting things like elections this weekend in Ukraine and the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) which we chuckle about, knowing it’s an anagram.

The Reasonable Fed Guy

A serious economist, Stanley Fischer is about to sail into the Vice-Chair slot at the Fed after the requisite rigmarole in Washington.

The reason I call him the “reasonable Fed guy” is he’s one of the few who sees the xx trillion of excess liquidity that’s sloshing around the banking system and worries about it turning into ‘snap inflation’ when demand picks up.  Or if rates turn too fast.

He may have missed my notes on how robotics, 3D printing, and business process computers are likely to wreck any recovery before it really gets started.  Or the ones where I’ve explained how the impact of the LBGT movement is to seriously reduce housing demand by making “shared space” a lot broader than it used to be…

Still, he’s as reasonable a fellow as you’ll find in DC, here lately…

Commie or Context?

Here’s a fine puzzler for your second cup today:  What exactly did a democratic congressoid mean when he said “We’ve proved that communism works?”

NextWar: Electronic Pearl Harbor

Note from warhammer this morning is thought-provoking:

George,

Of late we’ve been privy to some information people ‘in the know’ have understood to be reality for quite some time – China is comprehensively engaged in industrial espionage against the U.S., among other nations.

What has been made very clear is the scope of China’s cyber sleuthing, and this is the information that should send a shiver down John and Jane Q. Sixpack’s chubby little spines.  The limited data released regarding key targets of Chinese cyber espionage, most of them aimed at U.S. nuclear power, heavy industry, solar, communications and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) dedicated companies.

The short of it is this:  China is deeply embedded in many of our critical national infrastructure supporting companies.  Most of the American public has no idea of the breadth of Chinese hacking.  We worry about the NSA having our personal information, yet the chances are very good that the Chinese military knows far more about any one particular U.S. citizen than Uncle Sam does.

Several news outlets nailed it, especially the Wall Street Journal, when they called the Chinese actions out for what they really are, “a state-sponsored act of aggression.”   

I call it “prepping the battlefield.”  The critical infrastructures and supporting corporations compromised by the Chinese are vital to keeping information and services flowing throughout the nation and among and between our top government, industry and military leadership.  In a time of war, compromising these data and services pipelines would give any opponent a serious edge, a “cyber-Pearl Harbor” if you will. 

For years, those who were warning of a cyber-Pearl Harbor were chided as modern day Chicken Littles, guilty of making self-fulfilling prophecies and turning China into the enemy that they did not really intend to be.  Regardless of the how and why, the China news is a calculated news release of what would surely be classified data, done to prep the public at large that the fox is in the hen house and nothing good can come of it.

This situation bears watching.  Indeed, the news could be a tactic strategically employed by the U.S. political leadership to defuse the damage caused by the Snowden leaks and justify a continued domestic cyber-vigilance on the part of the U.S. of A.  But several well placed independent organizations and other national governments have publicly reached the same conclusions in the past several years.  

My question is: “why did the U.S.

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Coping: The “Vacation Home Alternative”

Elaine and I had been kicking around the idea of moving.  Back to the Pacific Northwest to be closer to the kids.  Yet our home here in Texas has become more of an anchor than we thought it would ever be, thanks to the huge remodeling and “fun” we’ve put into the house.

Sure, it’d be nice to be near the kids and all, but  buying 30-acres of heavily treed land in  the Northwest would involve more bank robberies than we could fit on our schedule for the next 30 years. 

Worse, vacation homes are a financial  nightmare.  Having a place in the Northwest for 3-4 months (which it’s hottest in Texas) is something only the financially overweight can contemplate.  Washington state doesn’t have a state income tax, so they make up for it with property tax highwaymen.

Oh, and the property here is free & clear and we haven’t heard a peep from the seismic survey guys since the lawyerly fellow sent them a 6-page “Here’s how blasting caps might be set off my Mr. Ure’s ham radio if he doesn’t know you’re lurking about” letter.

Luckily, we found what looks like a dandy answer using www.airbnb.com.  This a a marvelous online service that lets people who have a room, level of their home, or detached property (the mother in law apartment kind of thing) and rent it out.

In our case, we found a one-bedroom condo unit which comes with wifi, cable TV, all utilities, a kitchen, queen bed, has its own private entrance, BBQ and more and all for $1330 a month.  There’s also a shared washer and dryer, it’s close to the kids (20 minute drive,k 7 minutes from friends) and it will give Panama (the brother in law) some peace and quiet around the ranch here.

He’s back to his ornery/spunky self… a good thing, indeed.

Second homes do have their place, I suppose.  But they are also god-awful expensive.  I’ve run the numbers and they just plain suck.  Worse, there’s the crime and squatter angle.

Hotels are nice, but our favorite haunt on the Tacoma waterfront is $200/night which means given the same amount of money the choice comes down to seven nights within walking distance of the best fish and chips in the Northwest, or 30 nights and a 20-minute drive.

The hotel, admittedly has a workout room, but besides the weight machine, about all it has is a treadmill, and that’s why God created shopping malls.  I figure Elaine will remain perfectly fit by going to South Center, Auburn, Tacoma, and Silverdale malls.  I expect to see weekly circuit training between ‘em all. 

Like anything else, you’ll need to p[ick up some of your own supplies.  TP, Kleenex, and such.  Maybe a small jug of Dawn for the dishes and some olive oil, butter, milk…you know that one. 

The Air BNB site has a number of filters, depending on your budget.  You can pick up a shared room (pass, but cheap), a private room (no thanks, but if you’re on a fixed income and still have some wanderlust and don’t mind a shared bathroom…) or you can get the “entire place.”

It seems to work even in resort areas.  Branson, Missouri has a couple of listings for $100 a night.  Hotels in season up there run more.  Again, it helps to study the pictures closely and shop a good bit.  Also, seasons matter but if you’re beyond kid-dragging, it’s worth exploring.

If you don’t have a lot of money to play with, and you want to fix some of your own meals, most of the units come with coffee makers, microwaves, basic stoves, utensils, and so forth.

No points or free air travel miles, but I sure like recycling money to regular folks instead of shareholders.  So thought I’d mention it. 

Between the discount cruise tips from Gaye over at www.backdoorsurvival.com, and this AirBnB thing, plus finally getting “this old house” near the finish line, there might just be a few years of grown-up fun left before the Big Sleep.

It’s almost too good to be true…so I expect someone will find a way to tax it away from us, yet.

Automatic Writing Project in the WoWW

We do lots of crazy stuff around here:  Chase the market (which often turns and chases us), play with ham radio, airplanes, gardening (but not this year – – yet – another story for another day) and lots of other fun, adventurous stuff including the odd vivid dream to report.

Oh, and let’s not leave out looking for the Bigger Contexts of life – those megatrends that are coming along which will toss us all about like unemployed ships in the storm of life.  3D printing, business process re-engineering, and all that.  Like yesterday’s report on “computational statecraft.”

Still, life doesn’t allow us enough time for all possible avenues of research that catch our eye.

The latest sparkler that’s calling to me is something called “automatic writing.”

Not too much is “hot” on the web around it right now, but automatic writing has a long and interesting history:  A bit from Wikipedia to set the stage:

Automatic writing or psychography is an alleged psychic ability allowing a person to produce written words without physically writing. The words are claimed to arise from a subconscious, spiritual or supernatural source

Once you read that article (interesting stuff here) you run into another idea which has been largely debunked by psychology of the respectable (or at least peer-reviewed sort): Ideometry:

The ideomotor effect is a psychological phenomenon wherein a subject makes motions unconsciously; for example, the body produces tears in response to powerful emotions, without the person consciously deciding to cry.

The experiment is simple:  Just sit down in front of a keyboard and start typing.  But now something coming out of your mind (leastwise, directly):  Just let characters flow and see what comes out of it.

Some would argue that it’s a gateway to evil spirits, while others claim that there’s only subconscious trash to be taken out this way.  Yet, I can’t help but wonder if automatic writing has, chosen a very few to bless with knowledge of the future.

Another way to considered it is that ideas come out of your higher self and automatic writing simply reduces these to comprehensible content suitable for consumption by others.  Charity, chastity and oblong boxes of content come through, report some.

For now, it’s just a concept, something of a refreshing break from computational madness that seems to be overtaken society.  Let me know if you try it…and I’ll do likewise. 

I know the saying about a thousand monkeys with typewriters ought to be able to turn out  the works of Shakespeare over time.  But we don’t care about that.  Just a few good stock tips and lotto or Powerball numbers would be fine.

WoWW 2: Vortex in the Mower Shed?

Reader Warren (disappearing measuring tape and perpetual self-filling lawnmower) updates us on some lingering questions:

Yes, the mower lives just a few feet from the shelf where the tape measure lives. Not enough room for a cot, tho’. It’s a small shed, about 10′ x 10′ sitting on a concrete slab. I’ll start paying attention and see if I notice any ‘vortexes’ or electromagnetic effects and whatnot. 

Aside: One way to identify ‘vortexes’ and ‘grid points’ on ley lines is to see if any nearby bushes trees or saplings have trunks or limbs that are twisted in a spiral. Some dowsers look for the same things in their work. Apparently, they use this visual guide to help find underground streams or water sources.

This is an older house. At least several years older than either of us.

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The Quiet World-Changer: Computational Statecraft

A couple of really neat ideas – concepts at this stage – to kick around. But they may be very useful thought tools in the future. And they lead us to an evolving area of research that will likely lead the world in some unexpected directions, or the sort falling out of headlines even today. It’s the hidden dynamic of corporate computational feudalism. This “world-changer” came to light from studying the problem of “making money” and how almost everyone on the planet has been harnessed, one way or the other, into a global financial system.

Boring Markets: Hand Me a Scapegoat, Please?

Depends who you ask, of course. But my friend Robin Landry who manages somewhere north of $100-million, is just marking time. His proprietary trading indicator hints that any upside will be very limited, for now anyway, and despite the recent surge, the market in the past week has given up on one blast-off attempt. The Nikkei overnight bounced a tad from the 14,000 level, and China was up a bit as well. But in Europe this morning, there’s a modest pullback, and it is almost as though the world is marking time for this weekend when “official” elections come up in Ukraine.

Coping: The Matter of Predictions and “Slop” (CalQuake)

When one makes “predictions” about the future, the reader or analyst is faced with a terrible statistical problem.

While a perfect “hit” would be an event – exactly as described –  there is the matter of “effective fulfillment” of a prediction.

When on pokes around the Internet, for example, and  offers various insights into future events, there is often (accompanying) a kind of disclaimer.  It says, in effect, that because the net is so large and impacting on mass consciousness, the ACTUAL fulfillment may not occur but a QUASI fulfillment would have to be counted.

When, for example, one writes about “massive flooding” to come, it is argued that “flooding” anywhere – even if just in headlines – would constitute fulfillment of a prediction.

But here’s the problem with that:  Flooding goes on regularly (and worldwide) every year.  So I can make a prediction of “flooding” and it’s bound to come true.

In eastern Europe, Serbia in particular at the moment, there is a worry that more flooding will come.   No doubt, somewhere on the net – in various dream, prediction, and channeling sites – someone will in the past month have mentioned a prediction of “floods.”

Yet, here we are this morning, with flooding persisting in Serbia, and now it’s even threatening a power plant that serves about half the region’s electrical needs, says the NY Times.

Now comes the problem of  whether “headlines” about a story qualify as fulfillment?

This is a long conversation that Chris McCleary at www.nationaldreamcenter.com and I will be having one of these days – as schedules permit – because we’re both finance guys (at least to the MBA level) and thus, both victims of statistics.

There’s no doubt that N (the number of data points) isn’t huge in any of this stuff, but the problem  which we might call Anti-N is hard as hell to track for comparison purposes.

So yes, if you find 3 predictions and one of them “hits” it might look like a very good success rate.

Suppose, however, that the number of predictions was much higher – and you took into account the totality of all predictions – not just those having to do with floods.  Then what?

CalQuake

This problem is far from theoretical.  And I mention is this morning reference my “CalQuake” dream that I wrote up in yesterday’s column in (amazing, even for my iMax-like  dream detail level).

Here the are on Monday and out comes the heading that says the SF Bay Area is due for a huge release of energy.  But will it come as one mega quake, or will it be a series?  The article “Bay Area’s future earthquakes: Knockout blow, or combination punch?” begins to ask the question and sketch out answers.

You see the problem, right?

The dream was of a much higher level of specificity and yet – by the very definition of some who make outrageous claims about predictive ability – my Monday morning post, followed some 10-hours later by huge headlines about involving exactly the area (the high tech hub) and earthquake risks, would have to be scored as a “hit.”

It’s an odd problem, for sure, but I’m not sure that the pseudo-hit is really legit. 

Remember, in the case of the plane/emergency landing dream, we had a “near hit” within a day of the dream posting.  Yet the actual (and rather precise “fill” didn’t happen for fully 10-days.

So while it’s interesting that the report came out, I’m skeptical, even though by past metrics I might have counted it as a hit.

Instead, I’m looking further out for a real big quake.  And let’s toss in the report of more than 70,000 fish dying in Marine Del Rey.  There are times when fish die-offs precede quakes.

About the only thing missing now would be a few dead oarfish this weekend off of Monterey and the stage would be perfectly set.

We shall see.,..but the problem of N and anti-N is a vexing one.  And it gets to the core of discernment or mental “slop.”  The poet in me says score it.  The numbers guy says nope, not enough data because anti-N hasn’t been calculated.

Twofer Tuesday in the WoWW

A couple of dandy reports on the ongoing trouble with reality becoming Swiss-cheesy of late.  Think of it as a Tuesday Twofer from the World of Woo-Woo (WoWW).

Remember a week or three back, we had a report about the woman who heard a mysterious female voice while taking a shower?  Well, she’s got a friend, apparently:

Hi George!

I wrote a couple of weeks back about hearing a female voice requesting she come into my bathroom while I was in the shower – and no-one there, of course.

Well, last week while at home alone, I heard a male voice (not a basso, but a deeper-pitched voice), briefly say “Hi, I…” and the transmission was interrupted by traffic noise from outside.

Since then, my husband and I have been hearing loud bangs around the house, and when we investigate nothing seems to be out of place. In fact on Friday night after I had gone to bed (I was still awake) there was an outrageous bang and a the sound of the table leaf hitting the table outside the bedroom door.

I have four cats so I suspected their involvement, but, no sign of anything out of place or cats in contest. I said out loud “ For heaven’s sake, I’m tired and trying to sleep. Just cut it out!” and since then it’s been quiet. Guess I opened a portal when I invited the female in, but it has seemed to have settled down since Friday night.

Keep up the good work, love what you are doing!

Somewhere in here, you might want to be nailing crucifixes up over all the exterior doors of your house, call Dial-An-Exorcism, have the rugs cleaned with holy water, run a few censors of incense through the place with all the doors open while chanting “I renounce the devil and all his works and all his ways”  and other commands to get out.

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Can the World Afford “Peace?”

The Russia stock market is zooming ahead this morning on news that the Russians will be pulling their troops back from the Ukraine border area.

But the US futures were a lot more measured about it, down about 30-points and no sign of rapture in the Church of the Almighty Dollar just yet.

Google Trends, when you look at the data, shows a long-term decline in the use of the word “war.”

This may not be a good thing.  The reason being that industry is sort of running out of “new things to sell” and short of a batch of 4K TVs and (yet another zero down) new car, what exactly is it people are supposed to be buying?

Food?  Sure, but with the natural food movement, there has been an increase in food at home and processes foods are not the hot ticket they once were.

What’s more, real estate has changed.  The New Minimalists don’t need 500 square feet in their homes for a bookcase:  Everything they need is in software and that ruins the tree-killing and it’s certainly had an impact on the pulp and paper folks.

Used to be when you needed something, you’d print off a copy of the email, or whatever, but now you can just drag it to your phone…

So the coming problem (*other than an iPhone 6) is figuring out what the next Big Thing will be.

It’s more than a rhetorical question:  Robotics and 3D printing are coming to get another 20-million jobs and hot on their heels will be a further 10-million as self-driving cars and trucks come along.

Against this background, other than lots of jobs and PRE (people replacement engineers) what’s left.

If you see a growth industry that’s in the “gotta have” category, please send it along.  We’re always on the lookout for hot new growth prospects, but organic growth and fundamental breakthroughs that become consumer must-haves seem to be in short supply here lately.

Which is why I’m aghast are big business stories like this one:

Let’s Make a Deal

We’ll be doing a quick IQ check of AT&T later today, since plans were announced to acquire DirecTV for almost $50-billion.

If they were a little closer, I’d might consider parading around with a simple placard that might read:

“Fiber?”

As the NY Times Dealbook report points out (after you read who’s got their hand in the deal-cookie jar) this may be more of a “marriage of convenience” than something which makes sense in light of where the future is going.

“Fiber?

Veterans a Potential Terror Threat?

You have got to be kidding me:  Here we have the most loyal group of Americans you’d ever want to see and the gubmint is talking about US military Veterans as a threat.  Who are these policy wonks, anyway?

Contributor warhammer is equally appalled:

George,

First this report the local police are preparing for armed conflict against returning veterans.

I’d place this in the “self fulfilling prophecy” column. As the article notes, our military is trained to recognized a authoritarian banana republic when they see one. The U.S. Government trained them to fight and decapitate such atrocities.

Between the shoddy medical care for returning vets and the decaying principles of democracy they come home to, these heroes know ‘Merica ain’t living up to its historic standards. They are the quite possibly last line of defense for the Constitution as handed down from the Founders if John Q. Public continues to fall into a trance every time the current administration preaches condescendingly from the mountaintop, throws handouts their way and twirls shiny trinkets before their dazzled eyes.

Next, former VP, Darth Vader, er, Dick Cheney stated the obvious when he stated President O has demonstrated a consistent ability to be pushed around on the international stage.

IMO, it all started with inaction in Syria after the ‘red line’ was crossed when chem weapons were undeniably used by the Assad regime.

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Coping: With the WoWW & Another One of “Those” Dreams

No, I have no idea how all this “dream stuff” works, but for sure – as soon as I get the usual load of crap done around here this morning – I’ll be uploading this one to the www.nationaldreamcenter.com site.  Definitely a case of the world of woo-woo (*WoWW.)

It’s another one of those dreams that has the same “syrupy reality” feel to it that other dreams (with some precognitive content to them) have had.

And, what makes this one so interesting is that the amount of detail in the dream is very high.

Let me run through it, and then you can decide what to make of it:

I was not “George” but rather a younger version of “me” although a different personality, completely.  And, I was seeing the dream through the eyes of someone employed in a high tech firm which was doing something at the intersection of artificial intelligence, the web, and maybe (this is the weakest impression) something with remote (and possibly 3D) printing.

The day was going along fine, although time was not too clear.  The company was in a building which had previously been occupied by another high tech firm and it was a big building.  Lots of dark glass.

The building was also tall – got the impression that it was a high-rise of some sort, but couldn’t be sure.

About the company:  It had been in the software/business/invention area for a long time and a while back (5-years?) had a pretty good hit with on e of its products.  Everyone knew, however, that the money made in that success would run out at some point, so there was a major press on to finish the new project.

The company also had a “sister company” which was located in the Los Angeles area, and the direction from the company where the “dreamer” was located was “south”.  Which means the company I was dreaming about what up the coast a good ways, either Bay area or Seattle.

The reason for “knowing this” was really odd, too.  I was talking to someone in human resources (a female who was with a colleague of hers) and I was complaining about the lousy piped in music.

Specifically, there were four channels from which office workers could select and they were all universally bad.  Oh, and loud, too.

“Do you have anything more relaxing?  I mean like soft jazz, or something?  I can’t get my work done under conditions like this….” I complained to the “boss lady from HR.”

The answer was quite surprising:  “No, we used to get a feed from our company in Los Angeles because we had some leased data lines, but since they were acquired, that feed has gone offline.  Besides, we needed the data lines for the project.”

Hmmm…feeling slightly frustrated, I wandered off to my workspace which (oddly) had a strange printer with it that was capable of being used online.  Although it didn’t make sense in the dream, upon waking I figured out it was likely a 3D printer as it was that size and I was making adjustments to it.  In fact, I was only pretending to work because the HR ladies were still around and I needed to look busy.

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Financial Prepping, 3-Hour Finale

Over the past couple of weeks we’ve been working around to some of the deep, dark secrets of how the economy really works.  The stuff that doesn’t make it into the 5-o’clock news shows.  The one that explains how, rather simply, the Fed can print money like a house afire, and still not have inflation running through the roof.   All fine theory, of course.  But what’s the point, right?

This morning you’re going to learn to think in an unconventional way about what I call “The America Platform.”  Just like major software management tools, we can look at our own future, and that of “The America Platform,” with the same mindset as a software implementation team on a BPR project (business process re-engineering).  In this sense, “financial prepping” is a series of “use cases” in software design.  Or, you could considers it a personal financial stress test.

After some coffee, we’ll wrap it all up and make soup of it.  Included is a PowerPoint that you can share with your spouse and family members, too, if you’re so inclined.

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