Out-trading algorithms and studying  SiM (Sell-in-May) theory is on the docket here for the next coupe of weeks.   We’ll get to the Chicago Fed outlook in a minute, but let me ramble for a bit… What makes this a “nice” time to visit the casino (stock market) is it’s like walking in at 3 … Read More

Two big stories this week frame a change in how the US Economy works.  The CDC reported the American birth rate is now down to the lowest level in 32-years.  At the same time, claimed president Trump Thursday, smuggled children constituted almost 65% per illegal border crossers this year. Here’s the problem: We have a … Read More

Introduction: By day, that is, when awake, I’m a pretty normal 70-year old male.  Writer, beautiful wife, and semi-retired on 29-acres of state park-like land among the towering pines of East Texas.  By night, however…well, let’s just say things change.  I’m a oneironaut; one who  has lucid dreams, many of which are remembered upon return … Read More

We  hold to the simplistic idea that markets are honest as much as the next guy. But, when you look at the market action of Thursday and what’s on tap for tyhis morning, you just shake your head, sometimes. Here’s the “logical choicing” problem in a nutshell. Case 1:  The markets are honest and the … Read More

Since our “market darts” have already told us where things should go when markets open today (down until around lunch-time, then a strong rally into Friday…but this is just the darts, lol) we can sit back, watch the dough pile up and try to sort out the question of how social media is used to … Read More

Time for a rethink of social programs?  A chance discussion this week got me to thinking about how the world really needs a way to “recapture waste people.” Who??? There’s no one who is “waste” per se, but circumstances in life often result in a lot of people ending up in hopeless, dead-ends, that seem … Read More

Although Elaine and I are planning to sell our “state park-like” setting in the woods and move back to the Big City – wherever that is – we have also considered staying out here in the woods and wait for [whatever] here.  Along the way, we have been adding lots of small “tweaks” to the home … Read More

Are you “ahead of the news” or are you “behind it?” On trade, there are always Alt-Sources of supply…so why is the media getting yet-another story wrong?  China is convenient but not irreplaceable.  Think Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Myanmar, India, Brazil…cheap labor is everywhere! It’s not a trivial question.  There’s a tremendous sense of confusion … Read More

MOAC:  Mother of All Crashes Sorry if you are not a subscriber to our Peoplenomics.com website, otherwise, this morning’s missive might make a lot more sense. But even here in the cheap seats, I’ve been telling you for nearly a year that we could experience a major Double-Top in this market.  To remind you, click … Read More

Humans are binary animals. It’s built in to how we think because of our “wetware” – which means neurons only have two states:  fired or not. This has tremendous implications for how we arrange nested decisions and how we “bias ourselves” in certain directions.  Yet little of this is out in front of the public … Read More

Been a while since we’ve had the morning cuppa Joe and just “went over a few things…” The Best Anti-Aging Medicine:   It may be your self-image.  Elaine and I don’t spend much time with people our age.  With a few notable exceptions, when most people hit their 70’s they “couch out” and turn into … Read More

“Buy the freakin’ dips” or hide in cash? Hell of a tough investment decision to make if you manage your own trades.  Let’s toll through some things to consider.  Trump on Trade Talks, Fed money supply data, and fresh CPI figures just out… First, we had a series of Tweets by the president this morning … Read More

“Nested Bayesian Investment Analysis” is our upcoming Peoplenomics.com report for this weekend and I wanted to mention how it arose since how an “old man in the woods” can come up with new ideas may be of interest. As I have explained previously, I have designed and use something I call a light crown.  It … Read More