I was pleased to read the note from reader Andy in the comment section about how the planet has been granted another year before things really begin to fall apart.

While democrats are spreading the word of imminent decline, no doubt to set up a ghost’s chance in hell of winning the WH in 2020 (since in the latest, Bumbling Joe now was a bleeding eye problem), there were some hints that may explain what Andy’s turn to optimism may be based on.

For example, earlier this week a little-noticed report came out from the Labor Department that forecast more than 8-million jobs would be created in the next 10-years.  Here’s how it went:

“Employment is projected to grow by 8.4 million jobs to 169.4 million jobs over the 2018–28 decade, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. This expansion reflects an annual growth rate of 0.5 percent,
which is slower than the 2008–18 annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. An aging population and labor force will
contribute to changes expected over the coming decade including a continued decline in the labor force
participation rate and continued growth in employment in healthcare and related industries and occupations.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow at much the same rate from 2018 to 2028 as it did in the previous decade; labor productivity is projected to accelerate slightly from the previous decade to an annual rate of 1.6 percent, higher than the previous decade’s annual rate of 1.3 percent. “

Such forecasts don’t usually “stick” in people’s heads, because of the odd way we think (or don’t…).  But, could it be that Andy senses such things and they are somehow “translated” into an interaction with an ethereal ‘third-party’?  Who’s to say.

GCCD – The Mechanics of a Blow-Off

GCCD is short around our house for “Global Competitive Currency Devaluation.”  It’s only just-now in the opening phases.  You can see the “evidence” of it trickling in if you know where to look.

Take the recent move of precious metals, for example.  Until this morning, the price of silver was quickly closing-in on $20 and while gold is down a bit today, the “experts” appearing on the gold-selling sites (like Kitco) who’ve been forecasting a “strong move, well over $2,000” may turn out to be right.  Depending on how much of a Bubble, perhaps even $5,000 or $8,000 – who knows?

Main thing to wrap your head-around is the notion of values of competing money.  Elucidate? Sure…

Let’s say I owe you $100-bucks.  Suddenly, some shirt tail relative leaves me $10-million.  See how paying you back the hunsky becomes trivial?  “Here’s you money plus $15 for a latte at Starbucks…”

Except, in international finance, especially with Made Up Economics (pioneered by Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and blessed by valueless/clueless academics as Modern Monetary Theory) governments simply print on demand.  It’s a delightful scam that accomplishes all kinds of “economic miracles.”  Examples?

  • Anything of “real value” goes up in price.  (Remember, price is just a measure of “how many pieces of paper” – value is the utility, keeps-the-rain-off, or food value of a physical “thing.”
  • Anything of notional value will go up as well.  Driven by the increase in the number of hundred-dollar bills being printed.  Bitcoin is back to $10,570 today.  See?
  • Some of the biggest “structural concerns” – like America’s National Debt – will become less important, too, under GCCD since once we start making up money faster than the prevailing interest rates (driven by lower for longer (L4L) protocol prescribed by former Fed boss, and more importantly superb Depression scholar, Ben Bernanke and colleagues over at Brookings), well, if you “make up dead relatives leaving you money” every month, you can owe everyone in town $100-bucks and still have enough left-over for a Gulfstream and a small island like Epstein’s…

A key part of GCCD is keeping the illusion out of the public eye.  Sure, you may notice prices are going up.

In fact, reader Mike, up in New Mexico, noticed that many “deals” at Harbor Freight have gone up 10% in the past year, or less.

The illusory part of a GCCD is we can look at the hardware, tool, and equipment prices all day long, but it’s like looking at a mirage. Why did prices go up?

Were the prices up because of Trump’s Tariffs?  Were they up because of strong consumer demand? Low stock on hand? Or, were they up because the suppliers (many of whom are in China) are having to pass on higher-costs as China’s labor prices are going up.  Or, is some of it due to depletion of resources, and the fact that oil has stabilized giving the prospect of higher global petrochemical prices from which all those delightful environment-wrecking plastics are made?

There’s one more possibility:  Sampling error.  You see, like Mike, there are many items in the new Harbor Freight catalog I would love to own.  BUT I have documented a statistical fact I call “The Parking Lot Effect.”   I live in an aberrant world.

Know how when you go to the store, you want a spot to open up right by the front door?  The more you want it, the further from the door you will end up.  How many times, right?

Applied to Harbor Freight, if I WANT one of those 60″ long hardwood work benches (with four drawers, since the one I have now has zero drawers) it will NEVER go on sale.  Until, that is, I make-up the desired drawers, install them and then?  Magic! There will be $99-dollar deals (marked-down from $229) all over the place on the unit I wanted!

(In my original formulation of The Parking Lot Effect, this was proven by field research:  Virtually all the parking by the front door of the supermarket OPENED between when I went through the checkout line and drove out…  It’s an astounding fact.

All of which circles back to employment, but before we get into the two reports just released this morning (ADP and Challenger) one more word about employment:  You will notice the Labor Department doesn’t talk much about Population.

Since they don’t, we have no idea whether anyone is projecting the eventual closing of the US-Mexico border

Our latest crack-head theory is that the US is really in the process of becoming a State of Mexico’s.

The more I listen to the Four Witches of Appocalyse (AoC et al) the more convinced I’ve become that as bad as Mexico’s government is, the American Left believes Mexican “best practices” (or those of Somalia) should be implemented here.

That’s what the Left is selling, and the American public, sucking down vapes and looking for legalizing anything that clouds thinking, is buying.  Which is why all the dems in the 2020 run want to give free healthcare to Mexican, but not Americans.

Whew… long discussion, but very much foreplay ahead of the two numbers that matter most:    (Insert drum roll and, uh, flugelhorn, please…we get to the point at last!)

Challenger Job Cuts

Hot off the press release:

The August total is 39% higher than the 38,472 cuts announced in August 2018. So far this year, employers have announced plans to cut 423,312 jobs from their payrolls, up 36.2% from the 310,773 cuts in the first eight months of 2018. It is the highest eight-month total since 2015, when 434,554 cuts were announced.
“Employers are beginning to feel the effects of the trade war and imposed tariffs by the U.S. and China. In fact, trade difficulties were cited as the reason for over 10,000 job cuts in August,” said Andrew Challenger, Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
“We are continuing to see investor concerns shaking confidence in the market, and employers appear to be cutting workers in response to a slowdown in demand for their products and services,” he added.

The ADP Numbers

Here’s how the drill-down looked:

And yes, the Dow looks to open up 250’ish – which ought to put us on the “blow-off side” of the 50-day moving average.

If that sticks, and we close the week higher, then could we have a 90-day wonder to the upside?

Maybe, just maybe, the “weather in the markets” is like how the weather  outside (commonly confused with climate) works.

This year, we’ve had an extremely late summer arriving in Texas.  Now, with temps hitting nearly 100 every day this week (and with low humidity around 35% making the shop swamp cooler a great decision) we might make it to November with daily high temps in the 80’s.  Just no telling when “summer is late.”

Our Blow-Off Top in our 1929 Replay Work is late, too.

Using Ure’s Extensible Templatizing,  (UET) we can see the annual fall collapse may be late this year – and maybe not even show up until 2020.  We did have a time-slip last week, remember?

It’s all going to come down to how many “long-lost relatives” the Fed is willing to kill, to fund things.

In the Bored Room

Ok, take two groups of idiots (Idiots 1 and Idiots 2) and put them on an island.  Make kneel and talk funny.  What happens? Johnson’s Brexit drama grips European press.  Ding!  Next.

Didn’t make sense?  Ok, try this: India Looks Toward Russian Arctic for Energy Development. (I’m gulping down WTF pills fast furious now…)

Bernie Sanders, prince of giving away your money, can’t find enough ways to spend in America, so he’s come up with what now? Bernie Sanders says he’d back US funding for Third World abortions, birth control as part of climate plan.  Instead of the White House, can we vote him into rehab?

CBS reports on “Bashing”! Hurricane Dorian bashes the South Carolina coast. Oh…that kind of bashing…

Next little wtf – The NY Times sounds sounds to us like they are championing “social justice in shipping” as a new “cause” for the left. Read: The Human Cost of Amazon’s Fast, Free Shipping.  Hey, Jeff!  Let’s bump up Prime for NY’ers up to $500 a year!

Speaking of people who “don’t get it” try this one on: Activists demand facial recognition ban for law enforcement in major new pushSo, let’s see:  A cop can “see” a crime, but a “camera” can’t?  WhoTF are these people and why didn’t they fight traffic red-light cameras when we warned of RoboCopping years back?  Fashionably late or stupid is the question.

Small business? Tyson Foods invests in plant-based shrimp company…  Oh…decapod not market cap…I get it!

On that note, I’m going to go wet my pants now…

Write when you get rich…no more coffee today.

george@ure.net

Jobs Data, Virtues of Unit/Price Thinking
Fed Beige Book Highlights