Fall Shocks Ahead?

This being a non-work day around here, well except for getting up at 3 AM and writing  Peoplenomics for Wednesday because my brain was on fire, we’ve got a few mental “processor-clicks” that can be devoted to Big Picturing.

One thing nagging is the after-effects of the Friday afternoon  Time Shift (see previous article) and what that may have foreshadowed.

One thing we know is that  Dorian began a shift that is now holding the storm off president Trump’s Mar a Lago  golf resort.  Sorry, but a direct “hit on Trump” there would  have to be taken as a substantive “coincidence” that Trump’s being “messaged.”  And it would tell us that whoever is driving the “Deep State” has thrown in with  aliens who really can twist and warp reality, this way and that.

Or not.  (We didn’t have  that much to drink this weekend, lol…)

The week ahead ought to be interesting.

Early futures today have been running between 70 and 120 points down.  Europe is open, Asia was down last night but it’s a long while until the bell on Wall St. tomorrow.

Tuesday’s big “news” will be the PMI flash (purchasing manager outlooks which are useful) but the fireworks ought to come later in the week.  Wednesday isn’t too hot, what with International Trade in the morning and the Fed Beige Book in the afternoon.

Thursday, though…oh yeah.

Both Challenger and ADP will be out with early employment data.  This cycle, I think I’ll go with Challenger being the most interesting because if there’s a downturn ahead, we typically would start to see an uptick in layoffs in advance.  ADP?  Well, a guide to what happens Friday which is?

The Employment Situation Report.  Again, I have to caution you, despite all the hype, the Current Employment Situation is little more than a series of estimated guesses.  While markets will move if there’s a twitch in the Labor Participation Rate, what really matters to our broader way of thinking is the total number of people working.  If that wavers, then time to “shorten sail.”

J, Powell of the Fed will be speaking Friday afternoon.  We haven’t been too thrilled with the Fed lowering, but if the employment looks to be sagging and if the markets begin to fall – which wouldn’t surprise us since we’ve just passed the window for the “average annual high date” – we would expect Power to begin hinting at another rate cut.

If he makes a comment like that it could be very bad for the markets.  From our all-time highs, we have had a nice bounce singe the Christmas Washout (slaughterer of the elves) last year.  But the Fed is likely to see the hand-writing on the wall and attempt to hold back the economic cycle.

Foolishly, we think.  2008-2010 was bad, but the longer the cycles in the economy are denied, the worse it ends up…or, should we say down?

On other items, gun control will be the new “news drone” in the wake of the tragedy out in Odessa, Texas.  Significantly, we think, there didn’t appear to be any “warning signs” that something might happen.  Which means the Left will push harder than ever for no guns and the middle-ground will be abandoned by both parties, once again.

Getting to be an American habit, when we sit back and chill:  Seeing all the political hype and yet there’s not a single candidate that has delivered much more than words and promises.

Some, Bernie like Sanders, have only achieved excellence as a Teflon orator for socialism.  To think someone could turn a history of radical (marginal communist) sit-ins at the University of Chicago into a 40-year run at the public trough is an embarrassment to the country.  Ahead to  Venezuela, Bernie?

I could go on, but no use.  The dozen, or so, remaining rational Americans find themselves in an asylum where phone-faced apes lass out “likes” and call that “social credit.”

Bitcoin was at $9,830 when I looked, so no worries about rationality breaking-out before tomorrow’s column.

A relaxing day ahead here…hope you have one, as well.  Drive safely, sanely, and soberly.

OH…

And if youy’re a phone-ape?

Kansas University faculty wants Chick-fil-A banned from campus for fears of ‘safety,’ ‘mental well being’.  Does this hint that communism is alive on campuses even today?

Might we suggest How to Manage Your Mental Illness at Work.

Beermakers Are Experimenting With New—and Sustainable—Six-Pack Designs, if that doesn’t work.

More usefully What’s Open (and Closed) on Labor Day 2019? Although, if don’t know by now, consider wrapping your head in Charmin  next year.

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

17 thoughts on “Fall Shocks Ahead?”

  1. Just a strike slip, not the Big Subduction: (Pac NW had their ‘clock’ cleaned/and/or nerves rattled) Aug 29th (thursday)
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2019/08/29/earthquake-rattles-oregon-coast-what-you-need-to-know/#668c19b77bdehttps://

    (any readers reporting on their quake experience?)

    Why Trump wants Powell to cut rates:
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/08/report-trumps-businesses-could-save-millions-if-fed-cuts-interest-rates/

    • DONT say business could save money,,,,,,, just put a lefty slant on it and say Trump in front of the headline and make it bad (orange man bad syndrome)
      I get tired of people who want to drag America down to 3rd world standards
      the Fed is the enemy of a constitutional United States of America
      Ya ,I am of the John Birch type mentality
      yup motherjones is a ______ fill in the blank to your own personal view

      • Dear Mr. Ure,

        Please do have faith in the Great Gazoo’s ministrations for the incumbent at the Southern White House. Perhaps Fred and Barney would testify to the effect that powerful 2005 Hurricane Wilma resulted in an insurance payout of some $17 million for unknown property damage, as described in Wikipedia, to the now-President’s Mar-A-Lago. One looks forward to reviewing a potential 2019 Dorian award for the property?

        Yabba, dabba, doo!

  2. I wonder if Chick-Fil-A sells something like the Colonel’s “bucket o’ chicken?” I’m not going to Lawrence this week, but might get there by the 20th and, would ABSOLUTELY buy something large from Chick-Fil-A and display it’s container as I cruised campus.

    “The culture of Chick-fil-A fosters hate and discrimination on multiple levels,” the Sexuality & Gender Diversity Faculty and Staff Council wrote in a two-page letter, accusing university leaders of being “more concerned about money and corporate sponsorship than the physical, emotional, and mental well being of marginalized and LGBTQ people.”

    The culture of supporting marginalized (whatever they are) and homosexual people fosters hate and discrimination on multiple levels. People who support marginalized and homosexual people should be eliminated from campus because they create a bastion of bigotry within the campus.

    (See, Useful Idiots, it doesn’t sound quite so pretty when I use exactly the same language as you, yet I use it to identify the 95.8% of Americans (according to Gallup) who are not homosexual as the ones who’re being offended, which is probably much more accurate than your Marxist spew…)

  3. Oh, and my apologies for stating the other day that there were 47 genders.

    Last night on the radio, some guy read the list of

    ALL 122 CURRENT GENDERS,

    complete with definitions.

      • He was from one of the many “Ask Dude” sites that’ve sprung up from the metrosexual crowd. I didn’t (and still don’t) care to note which one.

        ‘Sorry, “gender” is easy: Is it an “innie” or an “outie?” This is an empirical statement (disguised as a rhetorical question), for which there are one of three possible concrete replies (someone can be an hermaphrodite, either by birth or in the midst of an addadicktome or whackadickfromme operation, hence the third possibility…)

        Yet even that is TMI. I don’t care whether a person is hetero or homo, or male or female, or somewhere in-between, but unless we’re dating, I don’t have a need to know. If you are so narcissistic that you feel you MUST foist that information on me, then you have disqualified yourself from my circle of friends — not because of your gender or mating preference, but because of your attitude and personality.

      • Of of which h would be perfectly true, bother Ray, but what part of “We’re monetizing SEX because if a resource crashing world, there’s only sex and weather (ne Climate) now left?
        EVERYTHING IS A BUSINESS MODEL!!!
        The only major variable is the payoff currency or value-chain.

      • Pish, the monetization of sex is an incidental, added bonus. The objective is to screw up society as much as possible, on as many levels as are reachable, so John and Jane Q. will BEG the government to solve the multitude of simultaneous crises.

        We’re in the midst of cultural genocide, as we self-destruct to fulfill Alexander Tyler’s postulate.

        What I find interesting is that our own government, through graft, inaction, and inappropriate action, is the principal source of our undoing. Lenin couldn’t do it, so his contemporaries got us to do it to ourselves…

    • “the Left will push harder than ever for no guns”

      When I was growing UK p everyone had their guns.. pickups had the gun rack in the back window.. I say you get a plane ticket , you get a gun, a bus ticket you get a gun, when you stop to get off you turn it back in.. bad guys will think twice if everyone is loaded.. it grandma knitting her Afghan that gets startled and drops a stitch that will end the mess.. take guns away from the good guys and the only ones with guns will be the bad guys ..
      I’m lucky and live in an area where everyone owns a gun.

    • I’m so glad that I only pay attention to sex and not “gender”. In my lifetime, I’ve only known of two. I also know which one I desire. There’s no such thing as “preference” for most of us.

  4. Ya, I know, it sucks when we post Uboob links, but not all of us have a good looking sweetheart at home to tell us what is going on out there, so this young lady gets my ear. But it is more than her looks or accent,,it is her reporting that keeps me returning to the latest vids
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMXXYwjGGGc
    China does not like our President Trump
    they(China) say “,it is not permssible for Trump to win 2020.”
    all the more reason to vote for him…for US

    • I could certainly live happily with Gina for the rest of my life, even if she was a lefty. That said, she does have really good info and presents well. My ears are adapting quickly to and enjoying her accent.

      I have nothing against the Chinese people. They work hard and love their country – as it should be. We need to come to a balance where both countries respect the legitimacy of each, and conduct relations honestly and in their mutual best interest.

      China could not believe how easy it was to do business on their own terms with the USA back in the ’90’s and 2000’s. Now it’s a different game and their government doesn’t like it. We need to find a way to agree on low/no tariffs and honest trade both ways before we can reduce animosity. This is unlikely as long as China thinks there’s a possibility of a new US president in 2020. I do hope and pray that President Trump has a few more rabbits to pull out of his hat before then.

      War with China would be a disaster for the entire world.

  5. > The dozen, or so, remaining rational Americans find themselves in an asylum…

    “The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” — Marcus Aurelius

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