This being a non-work day around here, well except for getting up at 3 AM and writing Peoplenomics for Wednesday because my brain was on fire, we’ve got a few mental “processor-clicks” that can be devoted to Big Picturing.
One thing nagging is the after-effects of the Friday afternoon Time Shift (see previous article) and what that may have foreshadowed.
One thing we know is that Dorian began a shift that is now holding the storm off president Trump’s Mar a Lago golf resort. Sorry, but a direct “hit on Trump” there would have to be taken as a substantive “coincidence” that Trump’s being “messaged.” And it would tell us that whoever is driving the “Deep State” has thrown in with aliens who really can twist and warp reality, this way and that.
Or not. (We didn’t have that much to drink this weekend, lol…)
The week ahead ought to be interesting.
Early futures today have been running between 70 and 120 points down. Europe is open, Asia was down last night but it’s a long while until the bell on Wall St. tomorrow.
Tuesday’s big “news” will be the PMI flash (purchasing manager outlooks which are useful) but the fireworks ought to come later in the week. Wednesday isn’t too hot, what with International Trade in the morning and the Fed Beige Book in the afternoon.
Thursday, though…oh yeah.
Both Challenger and ADP will be out with early employment data. This cycle, I think I’ll go with Challenger being the most interesting because if there’s a downturn ahead, we typically would start to see an uptick in layoffs in advance. ADP? Well, a guide to what happens Friday which is?
The Employment Situation Report. Again, I have to caution you, despite all the hype, the Current Employment Situation is little more than a series of estimated guesses. While markets will move if there’s a twitch in the Labor Participation Rate, what really matters to our broader way of thinking is the total number of people working. If that wavers, then time to “shorten sail.”
J, Powell of the Fed will be speaking Friday afternoon. We haven’t been too thrilled with the Fed lowering, but if the employment looks to be sagging and if the markets begin to fall – which wouldn’t surprise us since we’ve just passed the window for the “average annual high date” – we would expect Power to begin hinting at another rate cut.
If he makes a comment like that it could be very bad for the markets. From our all-time highs, we have had a nice bounce singe the Christmas Washout (slaughterer of the elves) last year. But the Fed is likely to see the hand-writing on the wall and attempt to hold back the economic cycle.
Foolishly, we think. 2008-2010 was bad, but the longer the cycles in the economy are denied, the worse it ends up…or, should we say down?
On other items, gun control will be the new “news drone” in the wake of the tragedy out in Odessa, Texas. Significantly, we think, there didn’t appear to be any “warning signs” that something might happen. Which means the Left will push harder than ever for no guns and the middle-ground will be abandoned by both parties, once again.
Getting to be an American habit, when we sit back and chill: Seeing all the political hype and yet there’s not a single candidate that has delivered much more than words and promises.
Some, Bernie like Sanders, have only achieved excellence as a Teflon orator for socialism. To think someone could turn a history of radical (marginal communist) sit-ins at the University of Chicago into a 40-year run at the public trough is an embarrassment to the country. Ahead to Venezuela, Bernie?
I could go on, but no use. The dozen, or so, remaining rational Americans find themselves in an asylum where phone-faced apes lass out “likes” and call that “social credit.”
Bitcoin was at $9,830 when I looked, so no worries about rationality breaking-out before tomorrow’s column.
A relaxing day ahead here…hope you have one, as well. Drive safely, sanely, and soberly.
And if youy’re a phone-ape?
Kansas University faculty wants Chick-fil-A banned from campus for fears of ‘safety,’ ‘mental well being’. Does this hint that communism is alive on campuses even today?
Might we suggest How to Manage Your Mental Illness at Work.
Beermakers Are Experimenting With New—and Sustainable—Six-Pack Designs, if that doesn’t work.
More usefully What’s Open (and Closed) on Labor Day 2019? Although, if don’t know by now, consider wrapping your head in Charmin next year.
Write when you get rich,