A lot is breaking at once now — markets, war risk, politics, and the simple matter of staying alive long enough to profit from being right. This weekend I step back and use one of my favorite lenses: the world as a casino, with two broad classes of bettors forming around the Middle East. One … Read More
Updated: 840 AM Central 10-minutes into trading, the market is emphasizing the importance of asking the right question, again. With the Dow down more than 800, compare the chart here with the one earlier this morning. Noitce how the 200 DMA looms nearby? Now on with the Regular Column… People unable to learn — or … Read More
8:50 AM Update If you have been following the (few but pesistent) online predictors and seers who have been mentioning a major spring EQ in the nation’s midsection (New Madrid replay, anyone?), this caught our eye. 4.9 magnitude in upper Lousiana: M 4.9 – 10 km W of Edgefield, Louisiana Can you spell p-r-e-q-u-e-l? 8:15 … Read More
ADP’s jobs number hit this morning, but the bigger tell isn’t the headline — it’s what breaks next. With Friday’s federal report likely tangled up by the partial shutdown, we’re left reading the “second-order” signals: where the economy is softening, where it’s holding, and what markets are assuming will be true a month from now. … Read More
Simply too busy. As you know, I’ve been deep into the new book, Co-telligence, which explores structured human–AI partnerships. My earlier book, Mind Amplifiers, was a stepping stone into this territory. Today I’m finishing up something that can’t wait: the Provisional Patent Application that bubbled out of it. It will be outlined tomorrow on Peoplenomics. … Read More
We wrote on the Peoplenomics side Saturday about the “Warm-Up War” and this week we are moving into the War Ripples chapter. On the Tracking Board Near as we can figure, the “warm-up” was the part when Iran’s leader was killed. Which led to the additional Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Refer to Israel … Read More
Old age is coming for us all, just as sure as pigs come for slop. But up here on Level 77 (which is a personal odometer reading), we strive to out-think the pigs and keep moving on with life. So, listen up. I promise this won’t be “all sermon” but if you missed church today, this … Read More
War rarely begins with trumpets. More often, it starts with something small — a sanction, a strike, a “limited” operation with a tidy name. In the Cold War, superpowers perfected the art of brushfire and proxy conflicts: calibrated moves designed to test defenses, send signals, and preserve plausible deniability before anyone reached for the nuclear … Read More
Part of my 2026 Goal Package is to write less, stimulate more, and get my Morse back to 40 words a minute. Today in the digital dojo, flips, forecasts, Friday and fun for Skimmer Nation. Markets: Long Views First Pop over and see The Economic Fractalist’s discussion of where we are in long-term cycles. Then look at … Read More
“We gonna have us a MIT session, he-ah…” (Hopefully, you can still sub-vocalize while reading. Because there’s a certain loss in Hunter S. Thompson-like material when speed-reading. Loses some flavoring that only an overacted lingo-lango regionalisms can provide…) Yes kids, time for the Old Man to huff the whiteboard marker and explain: Market Informatics is science … Read More
A few ideas on “How Forecast Reliability Decays — and How to Use It to Your Advantage.” In the world of investing, we all want to know: how far into the future can we trust our forecasts? Whether it’s market movements, volatility, or macroeconomic predictions, the ability to foresee what’s coming is a valuable tool … Read More
Just out – today’s financial Biggie: Case Shiiller Housing. Data through December 2025 reveals the following: Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions,reported a 1.3% annual gain in December, in line with the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.9%, down … Read More
This is a two-parter today. Here, I spill my guts about markets and (living in the) woods life. Then, across the top of the hour, the Case-Shiller Housing data rolls, so y’all come back, here? First, congrats to The Economic Fractalist for calling the break well. I think he’s posting on Thursdays, so be sure to … Read More