Will the Market Forecast the Fed? Many ATR Notes

Feel like you need a dose of Breaking News? The latest new unemployment claims chart will have to hold you. That and a reminder the early futures were pointing to a solidly higher open. RSS as Modern Tea Leaves Wondering what the Fed decision will be – and more importantly how it will be received by … Read More

Thinking Over “Detirement”

This is really a report on faddish Accounting, because it drives so much else. Including retirement. Or, given there is a shortage of workers in the country, de-retirement. Jacob Soll’s book The Reckoning: Financial Accountability and the Rise and Fall of Nations provided some of the impetus for the ideas herein. Soll’s  next book, Free … Read More

Riding the “Right Wave” – Int’l Trade Figs

A fellow seeker of the “right path” took me to task overnight for the Monday column opening.  Where I wrote “There’s not a hell of a lot to yammer about this morning….” In which he pointed out that Evil is everywhere these days, a Drooler is coming for our guns (and seems fixated on 9 … Read More

Next Week the Fed – Heat’s on – Lost Tool Quest

There’s not a hell of a lot to yammer about this morning.  So let’s! We could talk about real estate changing hands in eastern Ukraine I suppose: Russia-Ukraine war: Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk being ‘levelled’, says Luhansk governor, as Russian shelling intensifies.  Real estate values seem to be dropping? Or, we could talk about the Israelis … Read More

ShopTalk Sunday: Second Depression Fix-It Shops?

Play before Work, I always say. (But never actually do.) Where is the Welder Review??? There’s a “dog ate my welder” story in here… Today was scheduled to be a review of that Chineseum knock-off of the Smith Little Torch.  That one retails on the Zon for (take a look).  While the Chineseum was under $25-bucks – … Read More

Advice from Captain Gooding

Two parts to this morning’s report.  First, the non-mathematical reason why economic depression is semi-inevitable.  Stay tuned. It follows-on from wild price appreciation coming to virtually everything this fall. After the “theory class” we hear from a long-time source – who has taken on a new nom de plume (moniker) although at the same rank).  … Read More

Biden’s Three-War Monte, Side of Guns, Drought, Collapse

Let’s see how well we can summarize what has been an ugly political opera this week remembering that old Joe South song from my rock ‘n roll pass: Games People Play. Three-War Monte is the aware person’s war metaphor for the old carnie game: “…also known as Find the Lady and Three-card Trick – is a confidence game in which the victims, … Read More

Job Numbers Roll, Jamie Diamond Warns

Before we get into the nuts and bolts of this morning’s two job reports (ADP and Challenger), I think there’s some dandy prepping advice to be had in a read of Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war. This entire attempt – at skipping a Depression – … Read More

Mapping the Second Depression Ahead

Ever since December 2021, when we began advising it was time to learn gardening, conditions have been building toward Depression before 2023.  Even our moderate case for economic calamity, though, has gained strength as the modern Fed – while avoiding the same mistake of the 1929 Fed – has also mis-stepped and made up new … Read More

About that Housing Peak

We have the latest Case Shiller/S&P/CoreLogic housing data just out:  Headline is a 20.6 percent annual home price gain which is super inflationary: YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 20.6% annual gain in March, up from 20.0% in the previous month. The … Read More

2 Weeks to Fed, Awaiting Markets, Shop Talk Monday

[Exceptionally long (for the free side).  But go ahead, take some time and relax with it… Holiday, and all.] Today’s coffee klatch of day-traders and tool sluts is now in order! Our usual dose of news, but then back out to our shop as the weekend enters its final hours.  (Gimme a chorus of “Damn!) … Read More

ShopTalk Sunday: eBaying into Vintage Tools

Since this is a holiday weekend, and except for go-fast cars and boozing it up a bit, and not much else going on, I thought we could spend today on Tool Slut Education. So, people new to (pissing away ungodly amounts of money on) vintage tools will get to know some of the makers and … Read More