While the Dow was up to the task of pimping out the “Hyperinflation vs. the Fed” narrative Thursday, the remainder of the market is less so.
Consider – at the outset our view that since the November 8, 2021 high, the market did a major (1) down and more recently (costing me thousands) we had the Wave 3 (2) up. Which means the worst of the really badass decline is just ahead leading into elections.
Something like this, as our future models see it:
Ure’s Personal Trading Myopia
This is the part where I tell you “Never trade like me” – which is a whole separate discussion from getting the “Big Picture” right. As I’ve told you again and again (repeatedly and repeatedly) I am a great “big picture due” but a terrible day trader. I’ve made more in position trading, but it is mind-numbingly boring.
While this is never financial advice, consider our long-term targets.
And R.N. Elliott correctly observed: The markets will always “make their waves” but it is the task of the trader to figure out which wave we are in.
So, in the red circle the top of the (larger degree – corresponding to large yellow in the chart above) is rock solid. Since we are now in Wave 3 (in the extension on our way to the “half off markets by Christmas” prediction, we know that Yes! The third wave will also make “its waves.”
Since we suspise that we are in Wave 3, where we have the (1) and the (2) up may be toast, it is then simple to take our BrainAmp.xls spreadsheet from the Peoplenomics site and plug in the top of 2 to the bottom of 3(1) which is all we need to estimate where we go from here.
We’ll lay all that out on the Peoplenomics subscriber side tomorrow. People keep telling us that it’s wildly underpriced at $40 a year but get it while you can – inflation like the tide waits for no one, Canute.
My ability is to look into the future with the low-wattage brain for a flashlight. There are several “things of interest” to focus that under-powered beam on – and since I’m ADHD, I can only handle one at a time.
So, our “news beams” around here focus on “the market” along with “use of nukes to come” along with “global famine” and its sidekick “global financial collapse” which gets us to “global anarchy” and its playmate “Marxist stooges” moving that agenda forward. If a few kids get sex sliced along the way, seems no one cares.
If we occasionally hit our “bright light of focus” on the right one of these illumination targets when the Illuminati have their lap dog press focused, that’s a statistical coincidence. There are at least six major elements of Future we flit between, one after another.
It’s just hard to know in advance when each specific one is going to happen, since we don’t “get the memo” from those who control media, sorry to report. Too old to spend that much money, anyway, I suppose.
On to the Numbers
Fact or Fairytale? Hmm.
Let’s roll with the Employment Cost Index, first, since it’s a little more factually based:
“Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 1.3 percent and benefit costs increased 1.0 percent from June 2022.
Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2022 and increased 3.7 percent in September 2021. Wages and salaries increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2022 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2021. Benefit costs increased 4.9 percent over the year and increased 2.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2021.”
If you’re in the “show me a picture, my brain ain’t that big” mode:
“Wait, Ure: So they show higher costs but on a real dollar basis costs are down???”
Er…something like that. You aren’t surprised more people are “going Anasazi” and walking out on the system, are you? Come on! Keep up with class, here! Inflation 9 percent, wages up 5?
Point is current dollar (floating craps game scrip) costs are up 5 percent while a constant dollar costs are down 2.9 percent.
What part of “democrat war party crooked accounting to take the spread between constant dollar and current dollar and call it a win” are you not tracking, here?
Then there’s the Fairytale – which is the Personal Income and Expenditures report which invariably says (singing along with Stalin, here) “Everything is always getting better, Comrades!”
Which ignores our mathematical proof that with enough inflation, you can never have a recession, let alone a Depression. I mean, seriously: The Weimar Republic debacle following World War 1 was never a “technical depression” based on quarters of real marks GDP, lol.
They had their versions of Bidenvilles, the built-back-better Hoovervilles, and it laid the groundwork for Hitler which some TDS victims swear is channeled by Donald Trump.
Er…back to point.
Which is (strike up that chorus, Stalinites!) Everything IS better! Says so, right in the gov’t report:
I don’t have the heart to tell you this is more constant dollar bullshit. But I would say if you believe this is tightly-tied to reality, you qualify for the Edward Everett Horton chair in economics at the nearest K-12 brainwashing center, near you.
We assume you have the whiskey out of reach, still?
We’re going to open the envelope together today. The Annual Ure Property Taxes came in today and here’s how it rolled out:
- 12.82 acres, Double-wide trailer, 40×40 shop, storage building: Property tax for the year $237.41
- 14.85 acres (tree farm, $47,000 timber value): $172.88
- 1.15 acres ($4,382 of timber): $4.93.
Grand total Property taxes for 2023? $415.22. Last year? $600.87. Part of the secret is the mobile home/trailer (built in 1989) is about depreciated out leaving most of the $43,000 of improvements in the shop/office building. Since it’s pole barn construction, ultra-cheap.
Elaine and I would like to thank you for staying in the large Marxist ridden big cities of America.
We are planning on applying the savings from our monthly $34.61 property tax budget to higher food and energy costs.
There are just some things you can’t hide from, I guess.
Point of sharing all this is to make the point that by deliberately structuring our “downscaling” from 2003, we have saved a minimum of (in current dollars) $7,000 a year in property taxes. What does $7-thousand times 20-years pencil in (before opportunity costs)?
The difference between “rich and poor” is whether you have anything left the day before payday. We encourage people to apply their brains to actually building a bulletproof future for themselves and stop wasting mental resource on communist brainwashing agenda items.
If there’s a climate change, we can plant even more trees. Famine means farmin’. We’ll let you figure out what the drones and the 100-meter & 10-meter ranges out back hedge against.
Plus, it rains enough today to fill up the back-up water catchment systems. Thanks, God.
On the Radar
While most of America lives out the movie “Escape from New York” the breadbasket armed reactionaries (like us) found these highlights of game play useful:
Elon’s the new sheriff in town: Elon Musk set to welcome Trump back to Twitter as he axes top execs. Maybe they can find CCP jobs? Trump likely to be welcomed back to Twitter. Could a genuinely progressive pro-America online social emerge now?
Dem’s October Surprise? Nancy Pelosi says husband Paul was violently ASSAULTED by attacker. When I see caps, I think “manipulation nearby!”
Home for a weekend of treatments or to work the Hunter problem? Biden hunkers down for a long weekend in Delaware while Jill, Obama hit campaign trail.
Tell us they’re not going to non-gender it! Thai tycoon Jakapong Jakrajutatip (a trans advocate) buys Miss Universe pageant for $20M.
More reaction to North Korea missile advances: Japan in late-stage talks with US to buy Tomahawk missile: Report
Vladimir wants to know: Putin Denies Plans To Use Nuclear Weapons; Biden Asks Why ‘Keep Talking About It’. Well, you see, Vlad, that’s so when the false flag drops, it will fall on the ears of a pre-conditioned public to just assume it was Russian. Kinda like 9/11 and building Seven, right?
Bag man notes: Reading Premarket stocks: The Fed is killing the housing market | CNN Business gets us thinking maybe the war party wants to lose the House so the red state gang will hold bag in the Second Depression. Maybe?
Down from here for marketsAs goes the markets (and cryptos) so go markets.
Since the highs this week futures price the Dow down 62 but the techs down 532 since they peaked.
Pot Roast and Hecklefish on the dinner (and TV) menu tonight. Ah, ranch life!
I you get rich,