Hard Week for the “War Party”?

There is a (sick) high art in Politics, American style.  Non-Solution. Issues come up, are cast about as “major campaign issues” – planks in party platforms – and despite being there (in the case of abortion rights) for more than half a century, they just never seem to get solved. Mind you, I’m not the … Read More

ShopTalk Sunday: Stair Repair Saturday

A month or two back, Elaine mentioned that a couple of the stair treads on the short stairs (from the BBQ deck down to the shop walkway) were cracked and looking sketchy. This whole BBQ deck was a one-day build 10+ years ago.  And those stairs were built with two risers, not three.  So, maybe … Read More

“Crashlection” Week Outlook

When there is a “known” event of major magnitude on the way, markets often hint in advance what to expect.  This is most often done with price changes.  Markets running up ahead of an event are called “Buy the rumor” and the decline following is often labeled the “Sell the news” aspect. With (at best) … Read More

Job Numbers, Optional Rally, and a Side of Woo-Woo

Much to cover before “off to the Courthouse” to pay our 2023 Property Taxes after a busy Thursday. Let’s begin by inspecting the Employment Situation Report (EmpSit) just out from Labor, shall we? “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor … Read More

1929 and 2008? Nightmare on Wall Street III

Braced for a Crash-lection?  Might consider it! The early futures were telling us little that we didn’t know after the market fell on its nose more than 500 Dow points Wednesday.  As the Fed not only raised 3/4 percent but said another 1/2 percent was baked in the cake – and they will entertain ideas … Read More

Industrial Rev #3

If the first Industrial Revolution was water and steam power, while the second has been electricity and network-pushed, what will NEXT look like?  It’s not a silly question, at all.  And since the World may fall apart based on global economic consequences of War, Sanctions, Asset-Stripped Money, and  little side issues like a die-off and … Read More

Boolean Fed Watch

There is a really neat way of apprehending the nuances of futuring (watching for Observer expectations) that we kicked around Monday. It involves using a basic Boolean “truth table” to figure out where the odds are. If you want to skip this part, the bottom line (as of futures prices at 4:35 AM) looked like … Read More

Righty-Tighty, Lefty-Luca, Lobbying the Fed

Brevity makes another failed comeback attempt. As we are now in the best “working weather” of the year in East Texas.  With the opening of the deer season just ahead, a week of fence line work, posting “No Hunting” signs and purple no-hunting paint looms.  Fortunately, today and tomorrow look to be almost “economic news-free” … Read More

ShopTalk Sunday: A 3D Workflow Example

I thought it would be fun to roll through an example of how a simple workflow process can be used to tackle almost any home handy-bastard project. Project Planning A number of projects were underway here this week, but they all have something in common:  They each went through a planning process where as much … Read More

The Electric Future Quandary

Just 10-days to Elections and 26-days until the other turkeys show up.  And while we enter the solar shortage period of winter in the northern hemisphere, it’s a dandy time to look at energy prospects. You see, a reader did some quickie calculations – that I haven’t been able to fault – which looks at … Read More

Think it’s a “Real Rally”? Fed Dumps in Trillions

Like the NY Fed pumping 2.183 TRILLION in Repos out the door today to 99 bigger than little people players? I don’t expect honesty or a refund on short losses. But enforcement against trading firms that show inconsistent quotes to retail traders would be nice. How much will they dump in Monday when this POS … Read More

Wave 3(2) Over? Personal Income and ECI

While the Dow was up to the task of pimping out the “Hyperinflation vs. the Fed” narrative Thursday, the remainder of the market is less so. Consider – at the outset our view that since the November 8, 2021 high, the market did a major (1) down and more recently (costing me thousands) we had the … Read More

GDP and the Bidenvilles (Democrat Homeless Camps

Two stories have our eye as the sun makes another rerun.  One is the Gross Domestic Product.  And since we have had two consecutive quarters of declines, we’re in a Recession.  Which the National Bureau of Economic Research doesn’t want to admit to, since they argue the metric is wrong.   (“When you don’t like the … Read More