Ah, time of the year when the really important stuff goes on the menu: Remember to pick up the catered turkey dinner. Thaw out the monster Prime Rib in time for Thursday (doing turkey Wednesday). And then? Big decisions, too: Glenfiddich or Glenlivet? See why my head hurts? What trip to Texas for our consigliere would … Read More
Disaster at the docks is our urgent concern because “me-too financial media” doesn’t have Clue #1 about economics. While the government offers lots of “Offishul figgers” we like to run parallel private indicators. So this morning, a quick glance over in that direction as we spool up toward holiday madness. With less than a week … Read More
Early market futures were up over a hundred on the Dow and the look of the S&P was (*early) positive, as well. Looks like carryover hype. The real story will be along after Europe closes and most of the remaining options start falling out, for it is that day of the month. We are not especially … Read More
Welcome to Happy-Talk Overshoot Territory! Maybe you didn’t notice over the past week, or two, but seems to us that when we look at one particular way to roll up a comparison of 1929 and present market conditions, there’s a whiff of “passing happy-talk peak.” Let me show you what I mean: See what’s missing??? … Read More
Since both of our reports next week will deal with charts only (holiday), I wanted to share some research that you’ll find very interesting. It’s all arisen out of my latest novel (about 50-pages into the writing part – but life intrudes – often!) “Ancient Children” is its title. The plot involves an exceptional aging … Read More
If you read the Monday column here, you should be impressed. When posted (ungodly early) I made a ridiculous forecast for the closing S&P Monday: “Although, if we could jump in a time machine and pop right to the close today, a 37-point decline in the S&P 500 would be a marvelous dart toss.” … Read More
Peering ahead at the day, we see that Gold is down about $16 bucks going into the U.S. open (no, not of golf!). This will place gold at $1,754.70 according to the Kitco charts. Let us do the math for you on how Ure’s Crazy Values Theory says things might work out today: The starting price … Read More
Some time back, I told you I was going on a buying binge for inexpensive Chinese “parking heaters.” These are similar to the Webasto and Espar units that have kept truckers warm for decades. Thing is, these are about 1/1oth the price. In fact, since my shop is part hardware store, off a compact enough shop to make … Read More
Can charts tell us what to expect this coming week? In several areas – cryptos, bonds, inflation, and war – we have concerns about what charts are telling us about the future. An odd mix of regression channels, understanding how to apply the logistic function and implications of Elliott wave developments matter now. This morning, … Read More
I lost money in a short position Thursday. My loss? $14. How disaster was avoided was the diligent use of stops. Usually of the “on quote” variety. The core idea being every trade starts off being about a 50-50 proposition. (See Burton Malkiel et. al A Random Walk Down Wall Street). Based on work by … Read More
I suppose we should begin this morning’s roll by unveiling the new Consumer Price report just out from Labor: “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last … Read More
Election Day-After Limbo is a dandy time for this topic; voters have spoken and will change follow? (No) The general topic around here this week has been “How many people” are really needed in a company? There are several ways to approach the problem: Big picture, sampling of various companies by sector, and even building up … Read More
This being Election Day, we’re taking the unusual move of not talking about anything on the ballot – of is pretended to be so damn urgent that you have to vote for one clown, or another, who can’t change the Law of the Land single-handed, anyway. Have fun with that. We don’t know which one … Read More