Well, well, well… We’re about ready to make a sizeable bet on the S&P 500 busting or – under – the 3,000 level before the election. Because as of this morning’s future’s pricing, looks to me like we MAY be about to start another wave down.
Let’s Chart This Out…
(This is the kind of stuff we delve into on the Peoplenomics.com subscriber side – so if you know a subscriber, you owe them a beer, right?)
This will require you to engage some brain cells. You need a brain in order to make money in stocks. Especially when the markets are so crazy. This is only an IDEA NOT TRADING ADVICE. With that agreed, you may continue to this morning’s studcy material which is explained point by point in the discussion below this chart:
Refer to the above and the following remarks:
- This is the upper trend channel. When markets are moving, they tend to remain within a 2 standard deviation trend channel. Refer to Raff’s book for advice and concepts.
- This is the lower bound of the regression channel, as I view it. This channel will at times exceed the 2 STDv range because I use an Aggregated view of markets, not a single index. Sub indices, like the NASDAQ, will vary outside my expectations because of manias such as the FAANG phenomenon.
- This is a possible top in the market recorded September 2, 2020 at Aggregate level 32,253.34.
- This is a potential bottom for Wave 1 down. 29,672.58 marked Sept. 8, 2020.
- Is the possible bounce high of a B wave ( or 2 down, depending how it works out). This MAY have been 30,415 on Sept. 15th.
A. IF this is a 1 down, then we can infer the size of a pending…
B. Wave down as these are often in the vicinity of at least 100% the size of the A (or first wave) in a directional change. And they can go more than 200%. Most normals are 150% to 180% of the A wave with some real affinity for Fibonacci 161.8% levels.
Some index options expire at the close today. As a result, we might see a decline since the Aggregate at the August index point was 30396.45. With the futures down going into the open this morning, we would price at about 29811.24 if we were to close at future’s levels.
In other words, people who bought in August on blind hopium would loser their assiums.
There was a decent rally last index expiry into the equities expiration the next day – but this is only something to noodle on. The Monday following the last options week was up a couple of hundred points in the aggregate. May not mean anything now in any of these, since the trend channel was busted to the downside.
Balls-of-steel helps. Or the dueling trend lines which saving my bacon and “bought the Dom” for us this week.
Sinking in today: Disappointing “Retail Fails.” That and the Fed decision to announce effective lower bound outlook through 2023. Which – when you get down to it is tantamount to saying “We’re going to keep making up money, buying up mortgages and bonds and all kinds of other shit to keep this turd afloat.”
Which would (in more testosterous times) cause non-consensus real corporate leaders to scramble and bail. Although we do see some layoffs beginning to swirl about. Over the past week, you may have noticed…
- In Los Angeles Mayor Garcetti tells managers to begin preparing for a ‘potential layoff scenario’.
- Forbes rather hintingly advising You Should Never Wait For A Layoff To Prepare For Your Job Search.
- When tasks are done, the ax falleth, learn Census people as Census layoff plans moving forward despite court order: report.
- And if you have a job – well, the topic of Peoplenomics Wednesday was “Down-Conditioning” — our poster-child for that is? “United ALPA Leaders Back No-Layoff Deal That Reduces Some Pilots’ Hours And Promises Future Pay Raise.”
All of this is laid out as foreplay for what?
The Weekly Job Data
Tends to be a somewhat “noisy” data set, but check this out:
“In the week ending September 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 860,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 9,000 from 884,000 to 893,000. The 4-week moving average was 912,000, a decrease of 61,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,250 from 970,750 to 973,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.6 percent for the week ending September 5, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 9.2 to 9.3 percent.”
More up and down in this series than a porn movie, swear to God.
We will see how the market digests this and other data.
“Other Data? Like What?”
Oh, like this-here Housing report just out:
“Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,470,000. This is 0.9 percent (±1.4 percent)* below the revised July rate of 1,483,000 and is 0.1 percent (±1.5 percent)* below the August 2019 rate of 1,471,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 1,036,000; this is 6.0 percent (±1.3 percent) above the revised July figure of 977,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 381,000 in August.
Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,416,000. This is 5.1 percent (±9.6 percent)* below the revised July estimate of 1,492,000, but is 2.8 percent (±10.3 percent)* above the August 2019 rate of 1,377,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 1,021,000; this is 4.1 percent (±8.7 percent)* above the revised July figure of 981,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 375,000.
Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,233,000. This is 7.5 percent (±14.2 percent)* below the revised July estimate of 1,333,000 and is 2.4 percent (±11.9 percent)* below the August 2019 rate of 1,263,000. Single-family housing completions in August were at a rate of 912,000; this is 4.4 percent (±19.1 percent)* below the revised July rate of 954,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 312,000.
Price of 2-by-4’s, it’s no wonder, huh?
And, of course, don’t miss the weekly Feral Reserve Making Up Money Confessional (FRMuMC) after the close today.
Philly Fed, Too
You ought to be able to sort this one out without help:
After all these numbers, Dow futures still down 280 and S&P down 45 and change. McDuck suit time…though it looks silly, I’ll admit.
Son G II is back at his home fire department in Washington State after 24 nights of sleeping in an aid buggy after working fires in two states. People don’t think much about the firefighters go through. When was the last time you showered and washed your underwear, T-shirt, and socks in the shower?
I can tell you from experience (Pappy Ure was a firefighter) that now matter how many showers and changes of clothing firefighters go through, you can still smell smoke of a firefighter after 2-days, or so.
Fires drag on, regardless. In California:
The big Beachie Fire in Oregon was 20% contained as of last night. But the one G II just came off – the Lionshead fire east and north of the Beachie was still only 5% contained.
We’re figuring the fires will be bad at least into early October, and already, looks like some won’t be completely out for a month.
And to reiterate – when you talk to people in fire command positions, it’s more about the weather, lack of controlled burns to keep down the fuel loads and plain bad luck. No, not climate change. But it gives media who don’t actually work sources something to me-too on…
Speaking of fires: Here’s CBS giving climate the hard sell again in “Wildfires and weather extremes: It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change.” You know, if you talk to partisans 47-days before a presidential
coup election you’re not reporting news…
Do ANY reporters alive ever talk to the crews or fire ops out West with an open ear and no bias and bullshit political bleed-through? FMTT.
One of these days we’re going to wake up and there will be nothing left to blame Trump for. And then we’ll have to revisit Nasty and Shifty and the Penny wise and pound stupid people on the Hill who misallocate the dough.
But, not until after the
coup election, right?
Other End of the Spectrum
Puddle time in the South as the leftovers of Sally continue poundind the central gulf coast states with rain.
Sally leftovers are swelling the Alabama-Georgia border areas today (with some extension down into the Florida Panhandle.
Here’s what’s inbound right now:
That red “X” lower right is “Depression 1” (kinda ironic, eh?) and the latest recon says its upper level winds are conducive to development. Which translates to expect it to become a named tropical storm by as early as tomorrow.
Put in Your Pipe to Smoke:
We are huge fans of supplements in lieu of medications for many things. So we noticed Why GNC filed for bankruptcy protection despite vitamin sales boom.
And as we watch the march of socialism here, didja see where ‘Socialist Symbols Wanted’: U.S. Artist Wants Lenin Corpse in D.C.
Great! Another one for my “things to boycot list.” Where I reduced all the leagues to “sports” for the sake of brevity…
More on the ‘morrow and write when you get rich,