2 Depression Friday: Opening of “Crash Window”?

Two Depressions to track:  One is a Tropical Depression that will be headed up into Texas next week.  And we worry about what looms for 2021 in personal finance.  We’ll begin with this latter (depressing topic) first.

Crash Window?

Somewhere in the Peoplenomics subscriber Master Index page there is a nifty tool I developed a few years back.  Subscribers can download and tinker with it.  Essentially, if you enter two data points you think define the first move of a newly emerging Elliott Wave count.  Then the spreadsheet projects certain probabilities.  Going up, or down with target levels.

One drawback to Elliott, here lately, is it has a terrible time with short-term MASSIVE injections of money.  So me researchers claim that the expectation of additional money (inflation) is already “baked in the cake.”

In my view, it is not. Not at uber-extremes, anyway.

You can, for example, see a large part of the economic “Trump Bump” in the economy when the onshoring tax rules went into effect a couple of years back.

We’re thinking that when expectations change, trading algo assumption tables change, too. And that makes market analysis confusing in non-rational times.

Sloshing the Money!

Tons, gobs, and oodles of it.  Take a look at the latest H.6 Money Stocks report out last night after the close:

In other words, since the massive decline in markets (in March) became evident, the amount of M2 has screamed up 38.2% annualized.

In my work, confessing to be something of a monetarist:  Money Supply Matters.  And when we back-out the money supply change, we have not-yet  really come back to February’s (somewhat more honest) nominal all-time highs:

In short, while the jam-up in money stocks makes it  LOOK like good times are on a roll now, when you back out frantic back-room printing and mortgage panic-buying at the Fed, we can make out a pretty-normal 80% retracement from the March lows of this year.  If you back out the money slop.

Not saying this is “bad” per se.  I mean, with due respect, the Fed has pulled off the biggest “wool-over-eyes” in history.  They have taken the beginnings of a Real Collapse and papered it over such that average people believe the economy is doing OK.  Will they be right in the longer-term, though?

We label this as an element of “down-conditioning.”  As laid out in Wednesday’s  Peoplenomics report.  Because even though markets are up,  your specific lifestyle is likely in decline.  Higher prices, fewer jobs, more limited consumer choice.

To the Feds credit (and bankers do love to be creditors!) they have pushed the recognition of a pending Greater Depression out to what is (as of this morning) about the equivalent to March 15, 1930.  (A round of applause is in order, while recognizing that not only the actors but the audience too is certifiably insane, right?)

Why a Crash Window Opens

Tisk, tisk.  Surely you can see the Elliott of this, right?

I want you to meet two pals of mine.  I.D. – blue arrows signifying “initial decline” (nominally an Elliott Wave 1 or A down).  G.D. (the red arrows) are the “general (or greater) decline” which often (but not always) shows up after the I.D. wave 2 (or B) wave is done.

If 2 or B is done (as a pop higher to the Europe close might be an interesting place to consider shorting from if we rally this morning, and if you like playing with nuclear fuel rods (short positions), then the right-hand down arrow MAY become useful next week.  OR NOT.  This is NOT TRADING ADVICE.

Early futures this morning were sitting on the 50-day moving average of our Aggregate index, so we shall keep our eyes open over the next couple of weeks.

Jiggering the Money

One other item because we go reading up on U.S. budget issues:  We couldn’t help but notice that M1 declined in the latest confessional.

Since we cannot be certain which one of these really drives under current conditions (M1 or M2), we can only generalize that M1 was down 6.65% in the Thursday Fed report while M2 was only up 3/4th’s of one percent.  So we (blithely or stupidly) think of this as the  Fed taking a few “lines” (of credit crack) off the coffee table.

Current Accounts

Which sort of rolls naturally into this morning’s current account report.  

The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, widened by $59.0 billion, or 52.9 percent, to $170.5 billion in the second quarter of 2020, according to statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The revised first quarter deficit was $111.5 billion.

The second quarter deficit was 3.5 percent of current dollar gross domestic product, up from 2.1 percent in the first quarter.

The $59.0 billion widening of the current account deficit in the second quarter mostly reflected an expanded deficit on goods and reduced surpluses on primary income and on services.

How did that hit song go?

“Mighty as well face it, you’re addicted to stuff.”

(Gimme a hoo-rah for Robert Palmer!)

Tropical Depression 22

Out in the Gulf of Mexico, we are watching the just-upgraded Depression which may head up our way (we’re about in the “x-box”, lol):

Already, forecasts for our slice of Texas into next week are showing 2-inches of rain.  Which, while nothing exceptional, is still a drought compared with Alabama or the underwater panhandle.

Let’s Visit Stupid!

Censorship? Commerce Department Reportedly Planning To Shut Down TikTok, WeChat In The US.  Wait!  Are we being set up to be firewalled?  (Remember who has been forecasting internet content creation licensing since 2012…ahem…)

Yes, Brits are a bit slow: Harvey Weinstein: Jailed movie producer stripped of honorary CBE.  Took them  how long?

Going viral: Israel Imposes Second Virus Lockdown Hours Before Holidays.

By the Way! 

I did put up how CV-19 is now in an Elliott Wave 5 in the Peoplenomics report Wednesday.  Here’s how it’s looking today:

Seems to follow all the “rules” observed by the great R.N. Elliott:  1 is smaller than 5, 3 was the largest wave so far…  I mean, this stuff is really graceful.  And simple enough for dopes like me to see and figure….

Smart People Notes

We were actually pleased to see how a Federal judge blocks Postal Service changes that slowed mail.  This may reduce some of the complaints about mail-in ballots.  In science, it’d be like taking a variable out of research.

Are financial engineers planning to “take the money and run?   Wall Street Bankers Push For Bonuses Ahead of Possible Biden Win.

And we’re not sure where to slot this report: Scientists win award for giving an alligator helium and making it shout.  But did it fly?

Off to watch markets now.  

High trading volume expected as it’s quadruple witching today.  But, it’s not today we’re worried about so much as what happens next week.   That  is when things could get interesting.

Oh – and Ure welcome – no carrot-top or “Slow” stories this morning. 46-days of hype and BS that won’t change anything, anyway…so why bother?

After the Current Account data, futures went positive.  We’ll see how long  that hangs together…side bets on Monday?

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

41 thoughts on “2 Depression Friday: Opening of “Crash Window”?”

  1. I don’t really like judges injecting themselves into services funded and executed by the other branches. I understand USPS is “losing” money, so maybe they are making delivery changes to be more efficient or lower costs. So basically a judge comes in and says no, you must just loose more taxpayer money. What is the point of a legislator if judges can over ride their priorities for spending. Do the laws governing the postal service, have requirements for delivery timelines? That would surprise me, because it has always seemed kind of random. Now if there were suggestions that mail is not being delivered to people because they are asian or black, then I can see the judiciary involvement to enforce equal treatment requirements. USPS has always seemed a best effort service, as I cannot dispute my postage cost if mail is delivered in 2 weeks vs 2 days.

  2. Yo G,

    No matta the splatta today in the markets, Bitcoin is breaking out!

    Thats right U FRN luving Trolls/Idiots/Morons and self proclaimed Geniuses, it is going take MOAR USD to buy one measly, worthless, Fraud of a Crypto.

    “oh but BCN I’m afraid to buy BTC’s, its so new …how, where, what, can it be trusted?”

    U can put these bad boyz in Ure IRA ala the GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) – who’s Premium by the way is cheap right now around 14%.

    *There is NO TRUST in Bitcoin – Only VERIFICATION.

    Consider our current Financial landscape.. Do U TRUST Int’l Bankers, Domestic Bankers ?

    – EVERY SINGLE LARGE Bank in the WORLD Pays Hundreds of Millions in FINES – EVERY YEAR!
    It is a truly beautiful thing to RAPE/PILLAGE the People/Markets/Govt Coffers for BAZILLIONS, Admit NO Guilt, and Pay a FRACTION of the ILLICIT Gains back in Fines – keeing in mind it is a VITAL Service they provide.

    U need an Ivy League Education and Connections (like bonesmen) to get a “position” in a big bank like JPM/GoldSacks.

    Its a GREAT System, if Ure born into the “right” family – otherwise Ure going work hard for it while being somebodies BITCH, its okay Crazy Nancy Piglosi, Chuckie Schemer, creepy Joe Bribem, and Moochelle surely will make us PROUD again of the USA.

    But alas its a Corn Moon this September – moisture is going,going, gone – HARVEST TIME in October! Still – NO BITCOIN 4 U! besides U can get Theta right now for $0.50 per.

    No off to some corp training on race relations – check out the pre study materials..https://notthebee.com/article/behold-critical-race-theory-in-one-image

    • cryptos are just another way to skin bcn and his tribe of money that could otherwise be buying real hedges against future collapse. Overlay btc and the s&p – btc should drop today and next week as market unraveling get sunderway

    • BTC only functions with internet – which means huge chunks of the globe cannot play. When things go wonky with internet connectivity, BTC is shite. If internet goes down, bitcoin is down. If it can be played, it will be – BTC movements are just as playable as stocks at this point, and just as susceptible to big fish skimming the littles.

      If it isn’t a hard asset, something you can physically touch, then it is wide open to manipulation. As long as you live on top of things, the risk may be manageable, but there is inherent risk in intangible products.

      • There is NO harder asset than an actual Bitcoin, None.

        Un- Confiscatable

        Un – Hackable

        Un – Dilutable

        The ONLY De -Centalized CURRENCY in the World.

        Sure they can “play” the Futures Markets to Manipulate Price, just as they have done for over 25years with precious metals futures. And just like EVERY other market in World – if and When the Lights go out – U R correct -they wont matta anymore – till Lights come back on!

      • LOL bcn u are the tru believer type. Old firehouse saying from Rainer Valley in Seattle (garlic gulch):

        “Donna tella me no facts, my mind’s she’s ah made-uppa…”

        fast fwd 20,000 years: One archeologist to another: “Who would be stupid enough to think a made-up number requiring unsupportable infrastructure could be called…what do they call it? Munny?”?

  3. “the Fed has pulled off the biggest “wool-over-eyes” in history. ”

    KITING THE CHECK….

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Check_kiting

    that’s all that is being done. I know kiting is illegal but then laws aren’t written for the rich and powerful.. the big thing is.. unless there is a payoff in the short term future.. it is going to catch them. and I don’t see a payoff coming in the near future.. unless of course they seize all the assets of the rich and powerful like Adolph did and there might be that possibility since they are playing by his game plan……Laws are written only for the average citizen not the rich and powerful.. our prisons are full of them.. not enough money to defend themselves they have to take what they are given. it all depends on ones social status.

    You don’t hear about the eight percent of interest on the us deficit..

    https://usdebtclock.org/

    what isn’t shown on the debt clock is the hidden numbers of the true deficit..

  4. I wish there was some kind of “hype meter” for browsers you could load when you go on the net. When you go to a website, you get a meter or an icon that pops up in the corner of the browser screen that equals how much they bullshit, and how much they are accurate. Don’t care if a website is biased – I want to know HOW biased they are. That would help with knowing how much salt is needed to season each website one visits.

    I pity those that are trapped in the machinations of Faceberg, Twatter and the other SMs – it’s like they are all living in bizarro world where facts are what the moderators say they are. How do people so willingly surrender their critical thinking?

    We need tht ‘hypemeter’ because every single movement of eyes or mices or fingertips is now monetized, so clickbait is now running ops all over the world. Maybe that’s the next “killer app”?

    It’s looking like mid week Texas is going to be pretty damp, but with all the dry we have had this year, that isn’t a bad thing if it is over a few days and not all at once.

    Sure hoping Judy Shelton makes the cut….

    I laughed when one of my friends got all excited about the Senate subpoenas hitting the swamp creatures – as if our Congress ever did anything, much less the foot dragging DOJ or the chock-ful-o swamp critters FBI. Part of it is just government grown too centralized and big to respond, but the rest of it is just bad people on the grift. The only way they get off that grift is to have consequences, but those are reserved for the little guys – the big fish swim unmolested in a corrupt sea of cash, favors and eternal employment.

    OK – that’s all I got G – heading up to the farm to paint my baby Kubota to sell it. Almost got all the rust removed and painted that crazy orange. Everything works on it and it’s going to be great for somebody else soon. Wish I had that damnable 20/20 foresight feature box checked when I was born, but alas…

  5. “And we’re not sure where to slot this report: Scientists win award for giving an alligator helium and making it shout. ”

    OTFLMAO…. ok.. now did they make an audio of it shouting LOL LOL LOL LOL I wonder if it affected its vocal cords like it does humans LOL LOL LOL LOL…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjX8OSyDW9o
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lE8h-YBnwqA
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeOntKutcPA

    On a personal note.. I have contemplated in the past about getting a soda stream and trying this one for wine and a get together.. LOL.. sort of like the fart machine I installed on the desk chairs at work one time.. LOL it was a hilarious toot hoot..
    that is what they did it for.. a little amusement on another boring day..and they had grant money for it to.. what would be the reason I am sure they put an official reason to what affects would there be with infusion of chemicals on the body and environment..
    https://youtu.be/eQkZibEUT0o

    • On modern day hot air balloons theres a valve designed to expedite landing..
      The story behind that valve is a group of the guys took off every year to go on an annual fishing or hunting trip. Sponsored by a billionaire.. anyway on one of these trips the conversation came up over drinks around the campfire about the difficulties they faced on this project they were working on.. they had shot and dressed out deer earlier and one gentleman my friend was playing with a female organ of the doe he had shot..in his drunken stupor it hit him and the balloon yaw was developed and is used on each and every balloon to date..
      On some of them they still use the old plunger release but the vast majority have the yaw built in..

  6. George

    “One drawback to Elliott, here lately, is it has a terrible time with short-term MASSIVE injections of money.”

    That reminds me of how a new electronic circuit is tested. A Unit Impulse signal of the largest value the circuit is expected to handle is injected into the circuit. The circuit is observed with test instruments to record it’s reaction. It either passes or fails. The failures can be spectacular on occasion requiring the use of a fire extinguisher!

    The nature of the economic fire extinguisher needed in the near future is in question.

      • When my old job went belly up they were wondering what to do with all the fire extinguishers. I volunteered to give them a new home. They all still have pressure and you just turn them upside down and beat with a rubber mallet to keep the powder loose, once a year or so.

        I’ve got a big and small CO2 and several dry chem of various sizes. One of the small ones was used to keep a homeless van from burning down on my block a few years back, well worth it.

      • “hey all still have pressure and you just turn them upside down and beat with a rubber mallet to keep the powder loose, once a year or so.”

        I know.. its a shame.. they make you get rid of them every three years to… and when you get them inspected.. they charge you thirty five bucks a pop to tip the dumb thing over and knock the bottom with a rubber mallet.. the place around here has a rack they put them in then drop the rack.. the gravity of the short fall knocks it loose.. then they dunk it in a water tank..
        I am pretty anal about crap like that.. I have more than the average home owner.. just like I have two AED’s one in the house and one in the shop.. I would like to have one in each car to.. but the wife said no.. and she is probably right.. so far in my lifetime I have only had to do cpr in an emergency situation six times.. outside of work.. I have seen people have more strokes than that.. LOL I keep fire blankets and oxygen masks.. all within accessible reach.
        its the same with CO2 tanks.. every three years they will refuse to refil it.. the cost is more to have them inspect the tank than to buy a new tank filled.. so I just buy the paintball co2 tanks.. they are half capacity…

  7. Talking with a friend of ours in Be’er Sheva, Israel this morning. He was hoping to work a bit before University started. Now with the new lockdown, that’s out the window for him and tons of others whose stores are closed. You should thank Creator for the big orange monster down there in the USA who is trying to open everything, cause other countries are crashing and burning,

  8. Dam dam and double dam.. I need the bench that I have the fermzilla on aging the wine.. so to get use of it I need that bench to finish the bar top…
    So I am going to bottle today .. I started only to realize I’m fifty bottles shy and do you think I can find my corker.. not on your life..
    So I’m going to run to the store and buy another one and three more cases of bottles.. dam I wasn’t expecting that.. a pain in the butt.. the wine is delicious..

    • Now I was upset..lol went to get the Corker and the salesman talked me into the floor model..
      I had to call him and ask why he waited so.long to sell me on that one.. lol it takes all the work out of it lol

  9. “Crash Window” R U pulling my Pulaski?

    And no SFsiscans, that is not a Sausage!

    In fact one of the most talented, young Blacksmiths in the country just Forged a Pulaski out of Damascus style Steel and that beautiful Tool is being Auctioned off – proceeds go to FireFighter Fund in Boseman,MT area where this guy works.

    Some of the most Entertaining and Educational Content on YouTube – Alec Steele

    Precious Metals are consolidating, Precious Metal Stocks R grinding higher, as one of the coots fav miners just announced they will start paying a Dividend..can I get a witness?

    Imagine that magical situation where a Company Pays U to Own their stock, Pays U to take a flyer on further discoveries, pays U to reduce Ure cost of Carry – KGC.

    Might be worth a lookeyloo, or not, as some early adopters are Ringin the Register today. No worries for coot – there are a ton of Loooong Shots out there in Miners, including copper miners TGB – no longer a penny stock !^@%#%#(? – But Wallbridge is still under a buck..barely.

      • What call..https://youtu.be/t-A9-ptW4rM, cherry picking again are we?

        Dow was 29,100 at beginning of September(9/2), today the Dow is around 27,600, having flirted and flitted around 28,00 along the way.

        Here in the NE of USA, we still do use old school Math, none of that FAKE, new fangled Ure Math (1 Small Airplane Crash Fatality + 1 Motorcycle Fatality + 1Nursing Home Community Acquired NewMoania Fatality + 1 Heart Attack + 1 Vehicle Fatality = 15 Covert19 Deaths and 90 New Infections

        Thats about 5% the Dow and about 2% on the SPY, which by definition Does Not A Crash make. Besides the proof is in pudding, and coot been making MOAR on the Upside , than the Downside this Month..so far.

        You know the coot is hedged out the wazoo, with a greater probability that the short term/dated Hedges will be “nicely” tucked into my arse come Monday.

    • Most gold miners operate on a 20% margin, i.e., gold has to go up 20% before they make money and it gets reset every time gold rallies. Record gold prices and the jerks still can’t make any money. You got a rare one. A fat fuck executive with his feet on a desk soaking up profits and leaving stockholders with a bag full of shit is the standard.

  10. George,
    [political spew not suitable for Urban – try Politico]
    -At some point, you have to ask what is inherently wrong with the Conservative ‘business model’ that always delivers us incompetent governance at crunch time.
    Best, Mike.

      • Mike is like a guy that shows up for your football party every week empty handed. He drinks your beer, eats your snacks, roots for the other team, and then leaves at half time saying your party sucks and you and your friends are all assholes… yet he comes again next week to do it all over again.

  11. Guess I’m writing you since I’ve been getting rich . . .

    Cryptocurrency exchange Kratan became a bank. Which should be breaking news. Seems like they are replacing them slowly. Hell, Bain Capital who owns everything, has its own crypto currency and owns coinbase (another exchange). Also the worlds central banks are switching to CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) by Jan 2021. FACT!

    http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_CBDC_Policymaker_Toolkit.pdf

    My recommendation is to look at the opportunities right now, as the greatest transfer of wealth is happening right now.

  12. A wise sage told me to be careful of trading options expiration week. Expand that to making market direction calls.

  13. While the soothsayers have been throwing out some fairly dire predictions for the period of mid-September through the end of the year, the public rancor generated in the name of the upcoming elections has been fizzling since Labor Day. The passing of a SC justice should light the fire anew, but hopefully not on any nearby property. Finish your preps quickly.

  14. “Oh – and Ure welcome – no carrot-top or “Slow” stories this morning. 46-days of hype and BS that won’t change anything, anyway…so why bother?”

    …Looks like we’ll make up for your one-day moratorium, tomorrow.

    Just when this year couldn’t worse, crappier, or more contentious, here comes that bigass honkin’ black swan.

    Everybody got their popcorn at the ready? We’re gonna need a sh!t-ton of it before January 21st…

  15. ah George .. the smart already know and the fools wont listen .. lay off the gold though .. that’s the bs led by psycho moriarty and his crew of narcistic , yep , gold diggers

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