There will, no doubt, be some readers who won’t track. But life is [again/still] about making money and having fun. While holding to a “positive mental attitude.”

The reason we do this?  Lingo ‘d rap reveals all:

  • You gotta chase “the bag”
  • You gotta flip “the bag”
  • You gotta tumble “the bag”
  • And don’t fumble “the bag…”

“The Bag” of course, being the “money bag.”

This week “chase” time will be one day short due to markets being closed on Friday for Good Friday and Easter next Sunday.  Need another indication of why we don’t have much faith in the EU?  Euro markets also take next Monday off. Not what grinders do, say?

In terms of “flipping” the bag (making 2X your money or more), the US and China trade talks are not moving so with “sell in May and go away” not too far off – not to mention a what, 3 percent market gain from last options expiration – could it be a dip after the flip?.

Around here, we’ve already “tumbled the bag” – gone to cash/safekeeping – because there’s always someone who wants whatever it is you have.  That would be to fumble the bag.

Monday is when most people “get their grind on.”  Measuring your “grind” is what determines winners and losers.  Winners always have their grind on. Which is why they always “win” in life.  Not because they are any smarter than anyone else.  It’s just they know “grinding it” all the time pays off better than being lazy-ass.

As always, we grind 7-days and one of this weekend’s outputs are some tweaks to our https://computationalfuture.com website.  But, visit while you can:  It’s getting near-enough useful that it will shortly become accessible to Peoplenomics.com subscribers only. Subscribers also get access to some of my books and some market-sniping spreadsheets on the Master Index/Resource page. Along with 18-years of back issues.

Back on point?  As my son (*George_the_Uber_Driver) says:  “Know what’s more impressive than anything, Dad?  Not that you’re a MBA…but that you’re a MBC.” 

A what?

“Master Bag Chaser, Dad.”

Understand, that is how we grind around here…  You don’t need a MBA to be a MBC.  Ask G2 or that other Seattle MBC roadie…the one in the big rig grinding 18. The one on Sabbatical, yo.

More coffee, more grind.

Empire State Manufacturing Data

Not too surprising:

“Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose six points to 10.1, indicating that growth picked up somewhat but remained fairly subdued. New orders rose slightly, and shipments continued to grow modestly. Delivery times and inventories both increased. Labor market indicators pointed to ongoing employment gains and a small increase in hours worked. The prices paid and prices received indexes moved lower, pointing to a slowing in both input price increases and selling price increases. Indexes assessing the six month outlook suggested that firms were much less optimistic about future business conditions than last month.”

In the chart, no sign of “big rally” to support hyper:

April Empire St Mfg. Chart

Tomorrow, after the market opens, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Utilization data.  Wednesday International Trade is likely a big one to watch.  We may see the “leading edge” of the Boeing MAX jet problems impacting the BoT. By the way, did you see where Trump urges Boeing to fix, ‘rebrand’ grounded 737 Max planes?

All the delays on a China trade deal are being noticed.  Evidence in EU countries back start of trade negotiations with United States.

Thursday offers the Philly Fed and Retail sales.

Friday, we will solve a big riddle:  If Housing Starts fall and the Markets are closed, does anyone hear it?  (Similar to “If a man speaks in the forest, is he still wrong?”)

Political Hype

While the AP coverage here of Indy Mayor Pete (IMP) is a little “gushy” to us, and while no one I know gives a whoopee whether Goldman anoints Trump as winning in 2020, around here, we continue to be data driven.

Here’s what the data says:  568-days away!  Almost two years.

All the BS out there now is simply “news channel filler” (NCF) because both political parties are trying to bilk voters out of a billion per finalist to fund their own power grabs. Pass.  Our best advice is stay on the grind and don’t get sucked into any more false drama.

The Cynical Newsreader

Did you like Sesame Street? There nightmare material in this story about a big bird:“World’s most dangerous bird” kills fallen owner in Florida.

Intellectual property rights are about to be clarified as Vulgar or protected speech? Supreme Court examines ‘FUCT’ trademark claim. (Fearing Unconstitutional Court Talk, perhaps?)

Cher questions Los Angeles’ ability to ‘take care of its own’ amid immigration debate. We wonder what Sonny would have said?

Playing the “victim card” are we? Ilhan Omar: Death threats vs. me up since Trump’s 9/11 tweet.

And sad irony as Briar Cliff student dies after falling 100 feet on Arkansas hiking trail cliff. Storms across the South this weekend.

For Deeper-Thinkers

From Brookings: Robert Koopman on global value chains and the WTO.

When we read about any difficulties in Russian-US relations, remember (like the Cold War) the politics may be “oversold” a bit to keep we the peeps under thumb.  Why? Russia’s Rusal to Build Aluminum Plant in U.S..

EU countries back copyright overhaul that threatens to hit YouTube and Facebook.

You will no doubt hear a lot from the lefties about how the Tax Cut’s didn’t work.  But, take a close read of the NY Times story How the Trump Tax Cut Unfolded for People and Businesses.  Look at the charts.  That, dear reader is data.  And yes, taxes did go down.  Not much, but down.

We’re thinking markets are looking “toppy” now.  Especially on word that For first time in a decade, U.S. companies could report lower profits on higher revenue.

And a birthday is at hand as TED-Talks Turn 10.  Ask people you know what TED means.  If they say “Technology, Entertainment, and Design.”  If they don’t know, and don’t look it up without prompting, you have permission to trade ’em in on new friends.  People – like wine – sometimes age well.  Sometimes you get vinegar.

But that’s what makes a horse race, huh?

Grind on, brothers and sisters.  We plan Moron the ‘morrow.

Are Trade Talks and Border Problems Linked?
Table of Alt. Futures