Monday at “The Grind – Chasing “The Bag”

There will, no doubt, be some readers who won’t track. But life is [again/still] about making money and having fun. While holding to a “positive mental attitude.”

The reason we do this?  Lingo ‘d rap reveals all:

  • You gotta chase “the bag”
  • You gotta flip “the bag”
  • You gotta tumble “the bag”
  • And don’t fumble “the bag…”

“The Bag” of course, being the “money bag.”

This week “chase” time will be one day short due to markets being closed on Friday for Good Friday and Easter next Sunday.  Need another indication of why we don’t have much faith in the EU?  Euro markets also take next Monday off. Not what grinders do, say?

In terms of “flipping” the bag (making 2X your money or more), the US and China trade talks are not moving so with “sell in May and go away” not too far off – not to mention a what, 3 percent market gain from last options expiration – could it be a dip after the flip?.

Around here, we’ve already “tumbled the bag” – gone to cash/safekeeping – because there’s always someone who wants whatever it is you have.  That would be to fumble the bag.

Monday is when most people “get their grind on.”  Measuring your “grind” is what determines winners and losers.  Winners always have their grind on. Which is why they always “win” in life.  Not because they are any smarter than anyone else.  It’s just they know “grinding it” all the time pays off better than being lazy-ass.

As always, we grind 7-days and one of this weekend’s outputs are some tweaks to our https://computationalfuture.com website.  But, visit while you can:  It’s getting near-enough useful that it will shortly become accessible to Peoplenomics.com subscribers only. Subscribers also get access to some of my books and some market-sniping spreadsheets on the Master Index/Resource page. Along with 18-years of back issues.

Back on point?  As my son (*George_the_Uber_Driver) says:  “Know what’s more impressive than anything, Dad?  Not that you’re a MBA…but that you’re a MBC.” 

A what?

“Master Bag Chaser, Dad.”

Understand, that is how we grind around here…  You don’t need a MBA to be a MBC.  Ask G2 or that other Seattle MBC roadie…the one in the big rig grinding 18. The one on Sabbatical, yo.

More coffee, more grind.

Empire State Manufacturing Data

Not too surprising:

“Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose six points to 10.1, indicating that growth picked up somewhat but remained fairly subdued. New orders rose slightly, and shipments continued to grow modestly. Delivery times and inventories both increased. Labor market indicators pointed to ongoing employment gains and a small increase in hours worked. The prices paid and prices received indexes moved lower, pointing to a slowing in both input price increases and selling price increases. Indexes assessing the six month outlook suggested that firms were much less optimistic about future business conditions than last month.”

In the chart, no sign of “big rally” to support hyper:

April Empire St Mfg. Chart

Tomorrow, after the market opens, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Utilization data.  Wednesday International Trade is likely a big one to watch.  We may see the “leading edge” of the Boeing MAX jet problems impacting the BoT. By the way, did you see where Trump urges Boeing to fix, ‘rebrand’ grounded 737 Max planes?

All the delays on a China trade deal are being noticed.  Evidence in EU countries back start of trade negotiations with United States.

Thursday offers the Philly Fed and Retail sales.

Friday, we will solve a big riddle:  If Housing Starts fall and the Markets are closed, does anyone hear it?  (Similar to “If a man speaks in the forest, is he still wrong?”)

Political Hype

While the AP coverage here of Indy Mayor Pete (IMP) is a little “gushy” to us, and while no one I know gives a whoopee whether Goldman anoints Trump as winning in 2020, around here, we continue to be data driven.

Here’s what the data says:  568-days away!  Almost two years.

All the BS out there now is simply “news channel filler” (NCF) because both political parties are trying to bilk voters out of a billion per finalist to fund their own power grabs. Pass.  Our best advice is stay on the grind and don’t get sucked into any more false drama.

The Cynical Newsreader

Did you like Sesame Street? There nightmare material in this story about a big bird:“World’s most dangerous bird” kills fallen owner in Florida.

Intellectual property rights are about to be clarified as Vulgar or protected speech? Supreme Court examines ‘FUCT’ trademark claim. (Fearing Unconstitutional Court Talk, perhaps?)

Cher questions Los Angeles’ ability to ‘take care of its own’ amid immigration debate. We wonder what Sonny would have said?

Playing the “victim card” are we? Ilhan Omar: Death threats vs. me up since Trump’s 9/11 tweet.

And sad irony as Briar Cliff student dies after falling 100 feet on Arkansas hiking trail cliff. Storms across the South this weekend.

For Deeper-Thinkers

From Brookings: Robert Koopman on global value chains and the WTO.

When we read about any difficulties in Russian-US relations, remember (like the Cold War) the politics may be “oversold” a bit to keep we the peeps under thumb.  Why? Russia’s Rusal to Build Aluminum Plant in U.S..

EU countries back copyright overhaul that threatens to hit YouTube and Facebook.

You will no doubt hear a lot from the lefties about how the Tax Cut’s didn’t work.  But, take a close read of the NY Times story How the Trump Tax Cut Unfolded for People and Businesses.  Look at the charts.  That, dear reader is data.  And yes, taxes did go down.  Not much, but down.

We’re thinking markets are looking “toppy” now.  Especially on word that For first time in a decade, U.S. companies could report lower profits on higher revenue.

And a birthday is at hand as TED-Talks Turn 10.  Ask people you know what TED means.  If they say “Technology, Entertainment, and Design.”  If they don’t know, and don’t look it up without prompting, you have permission to trade ’em in on new friends.  People – like wine – sometimes age well.  Sometimes you get vinegar.

But that’s what makes a horse race, huh?

Grind on, brothers and sisters.  We plan Moron the ‘morrow.

16 thoughts on “Monday at “The Grind – Chasing “The Bag””

  1. So Cher doesn’t want to gather all of the lefties in sanctuary Kali and sing “I got you babe” to the migrating hordes. What’s the world coming to?

    • It’s amazing how fast liberals turn conservative when people come for THEIR stuff! The first burglary or assault is when they go looking to buy a gun.

      I like much of Cher’s singing and her other attributes, but not her politics.

    • It’s funny how all the socialist have such a fast change of heart when they are asked to share. Just like the college kids who believe in socialism, when asked to take a lower grade to help improve the grade of those who needed help. Of course they said no, they had worked too hard for their grades.

  2. G – I got your TED Talks and raise U a Flitch…I know you R probably a Rasher kinda guy, but as Prepper, a Flitch might be of some value if you can figure out how to “keep” it properly.
    As spring is “springing”, the Bandicoots mind turns to Summertime and BBQ! It follows then to start putting on the the Summer BBQ Spread – Sell Near Term Pork Belly Futures, Buy the July’s, Same with with Beefs – how to enjoy summertime BBQ activities and profit while doing so..grind baby grind…

  3. Hey George, if $2 trillion in tax cuts paid for by the national debt worked so well, why don’t we add another $8 trillion to the national debt for even more tax cuts? Best, Mike.

      • That’s it? That’s your excuse? Really? To the Republican’s watering down your US dollar? Am again disappointed by the Conservative’s lack of commonsense.

        BTW, historically way, way, way most of the national debt comes from the Conservatives. Truly, the party of Borrow and Spend.

        Papa Reagan started the Conservative’s debt parade when he near tripled the national debt. And the beat goes on with your guy Trump begging for more deficit stimulus, lower interest rates and more QE. All while at the near full employment. That, oh BTW, Obama turned over to him. Seem to recall O-care being paid for. Clinton turning over a surplus that Baby Bush quickly squandered. Obama being paid back his stimulus money. Overwhelmingly by far most of O’s debt came from the lack of tax revenues and unemployment spending that he inherited from Bush.

        Shame your guy didn’t spend his time/energy on fixing the immigration problem with the 3 simple steps I already outlined to you, instead of on trying to repeal pre-existing conditions and deficit stimulus tax cuts 90% for the top 10%. He wouldn’t have to go begging, with tin cup in hand, to the D’s to bail him out. At least now we know where R’s truly rank immigration. Conservatives may be great at branding, but man, when it comes to actually doing stuff, they’ve got no common sense. Best, Mike.

  4. Strange we hear about Trumps HUGH tax cuts for the working class oops my mistake for the 1%, which has the economy booming,yet you go to ShadowStats and find the unemployment rate is just about where it was in 2008 21.5% and wages flat, while he’s increased the defense budget both years he’s been in office for the MIC which spends billions making things that don’t work,the Zumwalt destroyer at $4 billion a copy and now they are going to remove the guns and make it a missile platform, the most expensive on earth, then you have the other dog that cost a trillion the F-35 which still has a hundred unsolved issues while we have without a doubt 4-5 million living on the streets or in poverty,meanwhile everybody is chasing money,and its never enough.Have two granddaughters that work at the credit bureau where between the two credit bureau’s employ 700 people, now they are going to add another 100 to try and keep up with all the new claims,reading where one city in Tenn. 70% of all car loans and house payments are in the red which tells me that rather then a booming economy we have a dead dog.As you say George facts count the rest is all B.S. for the people.be it immigration or the actual unemployment rate.!!!

  5. Pete Buttigieg is the mayor of South Bend, not Indy. The Studebaker factory where ol’ Peety spoke, was the location for Tire Rack when it came to prominence — Biggest building I’ve ever seen. I’d guess it’s north of 300 acres under roof. I made many a-trip, back when I hung with the sportscar crowd, because Tire Rack offered such niceties as balancing individual components, balancing entire assemblies, and shaving tires (a few thousandths runout isn’t even noticeable on the street, but can mean a half-second a lap on the track.) Much of South Bend is more scary than Chicago or Detroit. Were it not for Notre Dame and the billion dollars it injects into the SB economy every year, the entire town would be uncomfortable — Not impressed with Buttegieg or any of his recent predecessors.

    I strongly suspect Pete, and the other crap Democratic candidates, are in the field principally to suck contributions out of the small donors, so when 1-3 Dem frontrunners emerge from the pack, the Big Money has a place to go to receive a much higher likelihood of ROI…

    I’m getting just a little bit tired of places which have a huge influx of outside capital, which the locals spend on making things attractive, to gain even more outside capital, whilst letting their basic infrastructure go down the toilet, because streets and sewers aren’t as sexy as faux Gilded or Victorian storefronts and brick sidewalks laid by unskilled laborers. “Local” and “sustainability” need to be about the needs of the locals, not about sucking bux out of the pockets of passers-through for the sake of sucking bux. Perhaps the Gypsy would support a 50% local tax on incomes and assets above $1mln…?

  6. Like the looks of your computational site. Kinda Keen. Should make it worth the price of admission

  7. I like the latest instance of Computational Future! I’ve modified my home page(on my hard drive) to have a direct link. Things that are linked there tend to be noticed. Thanks George.

  8. “You gotta chase “the bag”You gotta flip “the bag”You gotta tumble “the bag”And don’t fumble “the bag…”

    “The Bag” of course, being the “money bag.”

    All of this is so true ..

    And of course obtainable for the average wage earner if… they could designate where their portion of social security payments go that cannot be touched by Congress..
    (What I personally paid in to the fund easily could have compounded to a best egg between 25 and 50 million..)
    Other than that it’s pretty much unobtainable by the average wage earner with obligations.
    (I did have that talk with a grandson that isn’t married..he doesn’t have any obligations no house payment or insurance taxes etc…he lives with parents.. no utilities and has one hundred percent of his income disposable. )
    For the average familyman..well take my daughter..she pays two grand a month for daycare..do the math. Then look at what the average wage is..the teller at the local bank makes just shy two bucks a week after daycare and travel expenses and health insurance..which is why she is working…
    I think the system has been designed and manipulated to make the average wage earner slaves to the system dependent on programs.
    After redoing our budget it didn’t take long to figure that if..our income was affected in any way we could not stay where we are..

    Don’t get me wrong.. I’m not complaining.. we do very well on what we make. But there’s nothing extra..at all and the budget is a constant logistical nightmare…
    Then of course.. cut all insurances.. cut out cable cell phones internet services flush the cars and use public transportation… rent so that your basic services are split between several residents instead of individuals.. the same with water sewer etc.
    At that point one income if your working can do it. If your on a set income then you can do it as long as you can get on federal programs.

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