IN a word: Maybe.
This morning’s economic musing came to me while taking my morning dose of 660 nm near-infrared light. The “taking of light” – which I first described for Peoplenomics subscribers in 2016 as a potential means of healing a wide spectrum of conditions – is not to be taken (pardoning the pun here) lightly. Over at the US Government Clinical Trials website, there are now 85-different clinical trioals underway involving photobiomodulation. Everything from anti-aging to Alzheimer’s…Oh, and even PTSD. It’s a long list. And also not the point..but I do sometimes “build a watch” when people ask what time it is.
Anyway, there I was doing some 660 and I get to thinking about global trade, and the invasion from Mexico. Is there a dimension to all this that would constitute a “hidden variable?”
By golly, I think there is: Consumption.
Go with me on this and let’s see where it leads, shall we?
Let’s assume for a moment that consumption is a “pseudo-fixed” (bounded) number. In other words, due to 3-billion people being hypnotized by their phones, not to mention peers pressuring on social media, what if people have become so conditioned to consume by 100-years of ‘electronic brainwashing‘ that we are consumption addicts? All the result of that which we call marketing and advertising.
You know, like rats, people may be conditioned-response trained pretty easily. In ad agencies, it’s a well-established fact that almost no one responds to an advertising message the first time they hear it. But, by the time it has been repeated to them, 10-times, most people (in a target demographic) will have made up their minds whether to “get one soon” or not.
The key thing for the big-budget marketing director (a role I’ve lived, yright?) is to figure “What the right frequency is that gets either the greatest number of sales conversions while keeping the ad costs low, perhaps a frequency of 10 or more ad repetitions. Or, the lowest cost per conversion, in which case a frequency of five to seven might be best”?
OK, but how does this relate to the Border Mess?
Just so. Consider what happens if consumption is somewhat fixed and there are two economic models in competition. The one of the left is the G-20/Globalist model and the one on the right is what D. Trump presents as the MAGA model. See what happens?
Not shown in my assumption of near parity in revenue-per-employee of about $130,000 per year.
Which tells us what?
Well, for openers, since US production is low, and our majority birth rates suck, adding more people to the US will provide economic stimulus for whom?
If Donald Trump negotiates a great trade deal, then you can see how the domestic US has a boom town economy just ahead. That would lead to a massive drop in imports – which would be very bad for China. They are already skirting a recession…
If I were on Beijing’s side, which I’m not, I would be pushing as many people as possible into the US because the US has nowhere to go but externally for much of the goods that a million additional illegals will begin consuming this year. “Yo cartellers, want good fentanyl rates? Push xxx,xxx people north for us…”
On the trail of where this leads reading The New New World: Donald Trump, China Savior? Some Chinese Say Yes in the NY Times is a good start. But, they haven’t gotten to the modeling yet.
So why isn’t this all over the media?
Because corporations don’t like their warfare in open/public view. No more than politicians do. Besides, it’s easier for journos to report piecemeal factoids with high confidence levels that few people will spend any head-space at all, trying to weave whole cloth out of dispersed threads.
But there you have it, today’s interesting thing to think about.
We now return you to the threads, after pointing to Bank of America profit tops estimates on growing loan book as (still more) evidence that consumption is becoming less variable as consumption addicts are moved to the “rent or lease your life” way of living. Expect less variability, lower savings rates, and more dependence on government.
Betcha can figure out which party that benefits, huh?
:45-minutes into the trading session today, things stand to “pop or drop” depending on the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data.
Yesterday’s doji of the S&P was hardly a convincing dragonfly, but up toda, or not, will depend on news flow; but like Charles Dickens, we have Great Expectations. Stocks march to new highs as European volatility vanishes…
Pressure on the WH
Look for a national mood-shift or change, perhaps Thursday as the White House preparing for Mueller report release.
Licensing the Internet
Our long-term view is unwavering: Licensing of the Internet is here and most people just don’t see it yet.
So to review: GDPR in Europe (which is why the silly notice on the footer of this page) is designed to ensure “privacy” of European citz. Problem is – and it should be obvious – there is no “privacy” on the Internet. Anyone who believes this needs to get their head examined, pronto.
And in China, the Internet is how citz’s are tracked and scored and worldwide content is censored. Social credit will arrive here, too…just give it time and bandwidth.
I mention this because there’s a piece in the Moscow Times this morning that says Internet controls are coming to Russia, as well. Twitter, Facebook Have 9 Months to Comply With Data Law, Russian Watchdog Says.
While last week’s fine of $47 dollars (3,000 rubles) wasn’t a big smack – laughably small – we anticipate that hugely bigger fines will be coming down the road.
In our (twisted) view of the world, whole countries are waking-up to the possibility of Digital Mob Rule. It’s what you’d expect to happen leading up to the collapse of Babel II – the web.
Speaking of Iconic Buildings
The cause of the Notre-Dame cathedral fire is not yet known, says the BBC.
However, expert historian and author of The Age of Desolation website, G. A. Stewart reminded me in an email Monday “Where Notre Dame cathedral stands there was once a Temple to Isis..”
The fire got me to wondering: Has open spiritual warfare now been set on the world? Whether accidental or intentional should become clear, shortly. As Billionaires Pledge Hundreds of Millions to Save Notre-Dame. Related: Louis Vuitton and Gucci owners pledge more than $300 million to rebuild Notre Dame after fire.
We Pay How Much for Obamacare?
“UnitedHealth reports a 22.2% rise in quarterly profit.” Sooner, or later, making money on illness has to go out of style…or not.
Moron the ‘morrow, then…Have a better day than Monday.