CPI Miss – Misleading Markets – The Record that Ain’t

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Welcome back to the poop deck of once Titanic America. Where the ship of state has been seriously holed, not by an iceberg, but excesses of Marxism and Monetarism. “If the right one don’t get’cha, then the left one will” sang Tennessee Ernie Ford.  While loading 16-tons.

Hot As Hell CPI

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food
at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index.”

Markets promptly fell in the toilet with Dow futures down almost 400 ahead of the open and the S&P down 64 and change.

The charts in the following part of this morning’s report are really much, much worse now of the inflation mess.

Main thing is the Fed is looking at 3.9 core rate – going the wrong way from their 2 percent goal, so the market’s going to get slapped with a no-rate-decrease bitch-slap today.

Today at the breakfast bar, we regale with the tale of where our Aggregate Index approach to markets came from.  It was just after the March-April peak in markets during 2000.  Right – top of the Internet bubble.  But then, even as markets began to fall over the next year – and the Big Lies of EBITDA accounting came to light – we noticed a strange thing in our small horse-trading account.

The week of March 24, 2000, the NASDAQ closed at 4,963.03 while the Dow closed at 11,112.72.  In other words, “One Dow worth of money” would buy about 2.24 “Nasdaq’s.”

But later on that year, I noticed a change – and by 2001 – just ahead of 9/11, that SAR (standard accounting ratio) had gone to hell. Sure the Dow was holding its own, notching 11,301.74 on May 18, 2001.  But what about the tech wreck?  The NASDAQ closed at 2,198.88.

This meant that “One Dow worth of money” would now purchase about 5.14 NASDAQs.  The Tech Wreck had more than halved techs while the Dow had gained.

Yet the (stinking, lying, misleading) financial press – like now – doesn’t come out and tell you really useful information. They continued hyping away about how strong the economy was (*which was put lie, shortly after) and how the tech wreck wasn’t a big deal.

But it absolutely WAS.  Depending on who you ask $5-$7-trillion dollars worth of investor bleed out.  So I went looking for an honest method to drill down into what’s going on.

I went back in the data, to before 2000 began, and said “What I want is an index that will track the Overall Truth to get past what these lying shits in Finance can come clean about.”  That’s when the Aggregate Index was Born.

Now, like then, the Aggregate STILL works and puts “Truth to financial power” in a very direct way.  Because the Aggregate Index – equal money in multiple markets before 2000 had fallen to 9,119.87 in May 2001.  As a reporter, I have tracked it ever since – as any competent business reporter would want to.

In short, while Wall Street was tooting its horn about how solid America was in 20o1, the Aggregate Index said no, having fallen from 13,091.93 the previous year.  Yet even down 30.3 percent in just over a year, the hype and bullshit continued, only to be covered up by a “terrorism event” which we may never know the whole truth about.

Fortunately, for us anyway, the Aggregate still exposes where we are – and that brings us to what we wrote Saturday on the Peoplenomics site and then summarized well before game-time Sunday: As we laid it out for Peoplenomics.com subscribers before game time, there was a hell of a set-up for a potential market top to be in.

Why It Matters Today

Because we see it again in the market – as expected Monday (where yes, that “$12-large short bet on KC  (via an index ETF) paid off).  And where now, we continue in position to set up for possible larger declines just ahead.

Based on this morning’s early future’s pricing, our Aggregate Elliott wave projector could be readying to flip down.

Our crossing moving averages work doesn’t reflect a big down move – yet – because it takes three trading days to reflect a directional change. And, it’s also true that the markets could march higher from here.

Yet, to our old bumpkin way of thinking, take the middle 80 percent of the big moves and relax a bit.  We’re thinking – with this being options week and then a national holiday for by 75th birthday next week – that we are set up for a swing trade down today, possibly going higher on (pretend) inflation moderation but we see how that rolled.  But hold long? Over a 3-day weekend?  AYSM?  Not very interested in that.  World’s wound tighter than a clock which is alarming, so to speak.

NFIB

With Mr. Glum, pointing out the Aggregate Index when adjusted for inflation isn’t up to the old peak yet – and neither is Bitcoin – we think the short side of life gets interesting.  We have to be cautious, therefore, when reading reports like this morning’s National Federation of Independent Business polling data. The headline went to the idea that prospects for higher January sales fell:

“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased two points in January to 89.9, marking the 25th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher declined 12 points from December to a net negative 16% (seasonally adjusted), a very negative shift in expectations.”

With market futures solidly down with two hours to the open, the drill-downs were very much on point:

  • “The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 30%, five points worse than in December and a very poor reading.
  • Twenty percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down three points from last month and one point behind labor quality as the top problem.
  • Small business owners’ plans to fill open positions softened, with a seasonally adjusted net 14% planning to create new jobs in the next three months, down two points from December and the lowest level since May 2020.
  • Thirty-nine percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down one point from December and the lowest reading since January 2021.”

These kinds of outlooks blow the whole “Bidenomics Miracle” down. But, since we are back to the (inflation-adjusted) brink of macro wave 3 down overall, it’s not surprising to us. But, we’re sure it will be shocking news to a bunch of true believers.

Cynical Crawlers

Who’s got the most dirt on House Speaker Mike Johnson is about to be revealed.  Because despite the headlines like US House speaker casts doubts on Israel, Ukraine aid package, we have strong concerns he’s a RINO. That the war party was able to steamroll through the senate (US Senate approves foreign aid bill, including $61 bn for Ukraine, but House may reject it) is hardly surprising.  Ukraine gets a strong border. The democrat-Marxists won’t fund such a program for remnant America.

IEOT2:  In Event of Trump 2 the Death Merchant Industries are greasing the skids to keep up huge arm sales, which keep their stock prospects high, which furthers the illusion of growth for the War Party… Sure, what’s new about Democrats Call for Trump-Proofing NATO. Killing people is a big business.  Once again, Rand Paul calls it: Sen Paul says Ukraine aid package would ‘tie the hands’ of future administrations.

Might not be a bad thing, because remember who’s picking up NATO tabs as NATO launches biggest exercises since Cold War amid Russian threat | DW News.  My God, you’re a generous tax sub…

Why can’t one of the sold-out corporate networks just be taken-over by Tucker Carlson fans? Tucker: The Ukraine canceled elections and killed an American journalist. Congress wants to give them another $60 billion.

Well, not like Long Covid maybe:  Millions of people have long Covid, including children and pregnant people, studies show.  Watch how many times the Big Lie about Trump causing Covid are repeated going into the (maybe) elections this fall.

Elections which will be rigged, by the way.  As outlined in “THE WEAPONIZATION OF THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION:
HOW NSF IS FUNDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AUTOMATED TOOLS TO CENSOR ONLINE SPEECH “AT SCALE” AND TRYING TO COVER UP ITS ACTIONS . NSF-Staff-Report_Appendix.pdf (house.gov)  Who was it said “Elections don’t work because if they really  did, they wouldn’t hold ’em”?

The Pedo-Trans Lies keep breaking. Transgender paedophile was caught with three vulnerable children locked in his house when police forced down his door after he sexually assaulted girl, 14. And wait, wasn’t that church shooting a lefty trans’ work, too?  My…don’t want people starting to keep score, do we?

Beware of Oregon Alert #5. Oregon Confirms First Human Case Of Bubonic Plague In Over A Decade, Earlier alerts we’ve issued have been for communist street thugs, rainwater laws, lasers pointed at pilots and LEOs and this from the land of Wobblies and spotted owls.  Nice place to visit though. Remarkably the folks in Baker, Oregon are still rational…

Political Dirt – by the shovelful. Trump Talks About Endorsing Lara Trump for RNC Co-Chair: Live Updates.  Then there’s the Georgia witch hunt. Greg Price on X: “NEW: Judge in the Georgia criminal case against President Trump says “I think it’s possible that the facts alleged could result in disqualification [for Fani Willis. Which gets us to mentioning how Democrats Prioritize Illegal Aliens, Give US Citizens Short Shrift. If that ain’t love, what is?

ATR: 10,000th Monkey & Shakespeare

Next to the last chapter of Building Your Personal Ark will be on Peoplenomics.  Along with 14-18 charts.  The wrap-up to the book will be up in a week. That’s where we will explain how to continue living on $10,000 a year (or less) which remains the most popular book I’ve written.

Note to Chris Tyreman – Ure needs another book cover!  Chris who’s written several books on religious matters should really write a website.  The more of us that do news and commentary based on values, the smarter the world might become. Discernment is on the endangered list.

Speaking of which – Chris has been using melatonin for a while for its antiaging impacts (as do Elaine and I) and reminds me to mention there is some new melatonin research over the past year. Lots of papers on PubMed:

THIS IS NOT MEDICAL ADVICE.  (*Although I could quack, if you’d like?)  Talk to your healthcare professional (or amateur, if you’re a real gambler).  Just remember, not all doctors are great playing Beat the Reaper. Medical Specialties Ranked by Life Expectancy.

If you don’t care about living a long, active, healthy life?  Our Houston Bureau flagged Top 5 Most Dangerous Cities In America, Ranked – Study Finds as useful.

Is this where I say “Flee the Cities while you can!!!”?

Off to watch “pop-a-top.”

Write when you get rich (or younger),

George@Ure.net

24 thoughts on “CPI Miss – Misleading Markets – The Record that Ain’t”

  1. And it appears the left trans from El Salvador – yes that illegal alien with a criminal record voted in the 2020 election ….. go figure

  2. The count should be we are on the cusp of the 3,3,3 down. Concur? What does the XL spreadsheet say?

    That Bubonic Plague.

    “The unidentified person infected is said to have contracted the disease from their symptomatic pet cat.”

    I see wild house cats everywhere and many people with domesticated house cats let their cats outside to unknowingly mingle with the Bubonic cats.

    Not to forget the rabid house cats found in Appalachia a few months ago. People find sickly kittens, pick them up and try to nurse them back to health only to find out the problem is rabies. The kitten finders are lucky they didn’t kill themselves.

    Appalachia kitten:
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/how-one-rabid-kitten-triggered-intensive-effort-to-contain-deadly-virus/ar-AA1kxBhi

    Alaskapox virus is the latest one and again, meow, cats are the vector.

    What to know about Alaskapox after officials report first known fatal case

    “He notably lived alone with “no recent travel and no close contacts with recent travel, illness, or similar lesions.” He cared for a stray cat that had scratched him, he told officials.”

    From the officials:

    “Alaskapox virus is an orthopoxvirus that was first identified in a patient in Fairbanks, Alaska, in 2015. Orthopoxviruses are known infect mammals, including humans, and can lead to the development of skin lesions. ”

    https://health.alaska.gov/dph/Epi/id/Pages/Alaskapox.aspx

    Again while there’s nothing wrong with people killing themselves doing what they love, they shouldn’t risk us all with their hobbies.

    • For now, yes. That’s what we’ve been talking about in the PN ChartPacks – and that’s what drove me to write how we could decline to the lower green trend chart support level, bounce and take it out in the apr 1-20 timefrme. This is the starter small appetizer course.
      Reason we have been buying protein bucks of freeze dried…

    • The Oregon plague article was paranoia porn:

      https://www.cdc.gov/plague/maps/index.html

      A university golf course I played at when in school was infested with Prarie dogs, who harbored plague-carrying fleas. In addition to twisted and broken ankles, the Prarie dogs provided another gift that kept on giving. Most forms of plague in this country are treatable.

      • “Most forms of plague in this country are treatable.”

        …and there’s a few dozen cases reported, every year. Plague ceased being a continent-killer, the first time the mold on a cantaloupe was shoved under a microscope…

      • A few days ago we talked about a disease jump between animals and people – contrived or natural – that would result in all the animals being slaughtered and the peoples getting transitioned onto the insect protein diet.

        Three possibilities there.

        – Rabies super-strain
        – Plague
        – Alaskapox

        I’m trying to stay on alert for that event. :)

  3. Thank you for the articles on Melatonin. Along with 10,000 units of Vitamin D3 daily, I have taken 10 mg Melatonin nightly now for 2 years. Isn’t it interesting how both these are hormones produced naturally by the body from birth, one triggered by the circadian cycle and the other by exposure to sunlight.

    There are a plethora of medical articles now appearing on the many benefits of these 2 hormones to our immune system including cardiovascular system, cancer, Alzheimers, etc.

    I received this note from a close friend a couple of days ago when we were discussing the many benefits of vitamin D.

    “I “cured” my serious psoriasis condition (I would not wear shorts due to the large skin lesions on my legs) by taking large doses of vitamin D. After reading a research article I increased my Sun exposure as that can drastically increase vitamin D levels eg 200,000 IU per day. This essentially got rid of my psoriasis lesions that had been spreading to my arms, scalp etc over the winter. I have been taking 10,000 units of Vitamin D supplements daily since then & the psoriasis has not returned.”

    The body really does know how to fix itself if we pay attention and give it some help.

    • “Isn’t it interesting how both these are hormones produced naturally by the body from birth”

      Bob, bear in-mind that vitamin B-12 shares this trait.

      I mention this because virtually all North Americans are deficient in dietary -cobalamin and once we pass a certain age, cease to be able to manufacture it beyond the level of our individual chronic deficiency, thereby remaining deficient unless there’s supplementation or, in severe cases, (periodic intravenous) medical intervention. I don’t know when the body tapers its manufacture of B-12. I started taking 200mcg of cyanocobalamin daily after reading Life Extension (Durk Pearson / Sandy Shaw, 1981, maybe?) so I never bothered to research it in-depth, myself.

      Just throwin’ this out there, in case you might find it of interest…

        • I do 400 (200×2) when I begin to get a little under the weather. I normally take 7800iu of D3, 30mg of zinc picolinate, 200mcg of selenium, and 4g of vitamin-C daily, in split doses. When I feel something coming on, my D3 will go to 20,000-30,000iu, 100mg zinc citrate, 400mcg of selenium, and 10-40g of vitamin-C. I adjust other supplement doses too, but for illness, these are the important ones. For COVID I also upped my vitamin-E from 400iu to 2000iu and added 200mg HCQ and 20mg IVM twice a day.

      • For the record:
        A bottle here of “multivitamin, adult 50+” provides all of 25 mcg. Not all that much, but it is 1042% of the RDA (how generous). So the RDA is about 2.5 mcg.

        Maybe that’s lowballed, the way some people assert that the RDA for Vitamin C is? The above multivitamins provide 60 mg, and the RDA works out to be 90 mg. But there are people out there taking multiple grams daily.

        • The MDR (minimum daily requirement – 1950s) and later MDAR (minimum daily adult requirement – 1970s) were established through experimentation and daily pincushioning as the minimum amount of any given “essential” nutrient was determined by the threshold at which a test subject would begin to exhibit symptoms of a deficiency of that nutrient. (You can thank a lot of military personnel, prisoners, and college kids for “volunteering” to participate in these experiments.)

          As word began to filter through, and thanks in good bit to Pearson & Shaw (not so much for their research, but because they opened the door and caused housewives, bodybuilders, and PTs to discover organizations like “Nutrition Search”), Jane Q learned what “MDAR” meant.

          The FDA couldn’t have people disparaging them for their effort to publish standards (even if the standard was the bare minimum required to prevent gout, scurvy, jaundice, death, etc.) so they went on a renaming crusade. The “MDAR” became the “RDA” (recommended daily allowance) as political damage control, because focus groups said the couch-potato class would find the words “recommended allowance” [to be] more pleasing and less scary than “minimum requirement.”

          AFAIK the FDA never tweaked or changed a single number. They merely changed the acronym. The “RDA” is STILL the amount of a given nutrient your body REQUIRES daily, to not suffer from the debilitating (or deadly) nutritional deficiency that’s caused by a lack of that nutrient.

      • Quadrupely so if youse bee a Smoker..cigs/mj/stoogies/vegetative materials..B-12 is essential…reason why I pee very bright yellow.

  4. I’ve been watching the markets go down and now, just a little less than an hour before closing, I keep expecting the “Plunge Protection Team” to kick in.

  5. Had to make a run out to Walmart., got the two items i needed and was trying to make a fast exit., when I saw a Coleman two burner camp stove. Looked like the model I bought last Winter, on-line and on sale for $62 – including tax. Looked identical., but this one $38 . I went and checked it out., pretty sure it’s the same model number – all the bells and whistles for a propane dual burner – same btu’s.., looks exactly like it. Why is this one so much cheaper !? Then I notice something. The entire package was in Spanish., not a word of English anywhere. Some how a language changes the price, dramatically ??
    – So.., now I have a brand new back-up., to my barely used back-up. Don’t tell the misses. Will go on-line later as see if I can find a rebuild kit for it.

    • Propane or white gas…
      I am a real Coleman fan..been teaching my grandson how they work..
      I have the one I had in the seventies and a newer one.. bought a few quick light table lamps..and of course who doesn’t own a Tilley or two..
      what’s funny is the diesel heater is almost the exact same as a tilly.. the only difference is the heat chamber is enclosed and a fan blows over the heat chamber..

  6. When the DowJones hit a record high yesterday I called bullshit and jumped in. {Options/Puts] on both the Dow and S&P500. Paid off very handsomely today. Both down sharply with only twenty minutes to go.
    .
    Side note. Silver sure took a big today. Anyone know why? Down 60 cents / 2.66%.

  7. “If you don’t care about living a long, active, healthy life? Our Houston Bureau flagged Top 5 Most Dangerous Cities In America, Ranked – Study Finds as useful.”

    Um, Laredo is the 11th safest city in the U.S., Brownsville is 17th safest, Ft. Lauderdale is the 2nd least safe; NYC, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Portland are safer than Indy, and Seattle & SanFran are safer than Columbus?

    Really?

    IMO “Study Finds” is useless. This “study” has no basis in either fact or reality. At best, it is a demonstration of how, working backward from a desired result, one may find statistics or criteria by which to justify or affirm, ANYTHING!

    BTW, I’ve been to Downtown Memphis, Oakhaven, and Highland Heights, several times, and got the T-Shirt; been to Cleveland/Chicago/Indianapolis/Columbus many times, and was in friggin’ Detroit last week. I have yet to be mugged, maimed, shot, carjacked, or even looked-at crossly in these places — something I can’t say about Providence, Bridgeport (both on the “safe list”), St. Louis, or Hotlanta…

  8. I’m putting melatonin on my shopping list. I’m already taking vitamin D along with a host of other supplements. Watching the people I grew up with deteriorate and die, I feel very fortunate.

    Regarding skin problems, my mother’s family was on vacation, back in the 1940s or earlier. Her brother had a rash of some kind which the medicine of the time had not cured. He went swimming in the Great Salt Lake, and the problem went away and never returned. Do they even allow swimming there anymore?

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