I slept in till 6:30 AM today. A lovely change of pace. Comments overnight reflected the “national gut wrenching” going on. Ostensibly the fault of the Waffler in Chief.
The thinking seems to be that America’s present rerun of 1929 is somehow driven by the decisional flip-flops of DJT. But more rested reflection offers a different lens.
- America’s first big problem is we have no longer held, as Captain Gooding pointed out in the Monday column, that we ‘built this country on rock n’ roll.” We held to Constitutional Values, and got on well with little more. We had big dreams and were a Nation of overachievers. Sharing ambitions with teamwork. Yeah – then we lost it.
- The Glue of America was our “work product.” We kicked-ass on deliverables. America’s enemies fear this. We were attacked by a Fog of Stupidity. Pandered by misnamed “experts” who exemplified the concept “those who can’t, teach.” Doers (and industrial arts) were sent packing. Lawyers and Accountants swelled as professions. The Trades were mechanized while Production Work was banished to offshore least-cost camps.
- Virtual Industries were launched in their place. We bought into ‘happy horseshit’ like needing a chair in every college for ‘gender studies’. Forgetting “spare the rod and spoil the child” we opted to create a new mutilation industry.
- More Virtualization is coming. Colleges and Universities are crafting Victimology into a new force-fed excuse for homegrown socialism. I expect the Reparation Industry will make another run, shortly.
- Simultaneously, even as competence and excellence have been kicked to the floor, the mooring lines of Values will be further attacked. Won’t be long before the “ship of State” is foundering on the rocks. Unless we change course. But even Command is at issue.
- When the Captain changes orders too often in Crisis? Well, that’s bad too. “Abandon ship” one day, followed by “Back to the Promenade Deck” the next – and on issues like tariffs confuses the passengers. Captain needs to know when it’s time to sleep in and reflect a bit. Go slower, move bigger mountains.
- The Passengers don’t like Change. It has taken domestic communism 70-years to root deeply since the John Birch Society saw it on the horizon. But it has been a slow – decades long – overdose of liberal thinking. Might take more than 2-months to get over it.
- Trump is a Developer. The Country hasn’t had one of those for a while. The “Project” will be covered in “change orders.” Need to learn to embrace Chaos a bit. Ask Boeing about the fine art of Change Orders and what happens when they go wrong. China is already exercising effective control on some aspects of the Panama Canal. I’m sure President Monroe left a note.
- Meanwhile, DOGE and Musk are doing a fabulous job despite the howls from the haters. They loved the old Bureaucracy and want it back. The old “grease” worked as long as “don’t ask, don’t tell, make things up” was working. No. The time of government without the People’s appointment actually holding and pulling on the reins of power have ended. Change is materializing before our eyes. No going back.
A small rally is in the cards. But the dirty secret should be in view now: America lost her way and when our “bearings started to go out” we simply packed the wheels with corruption. The grease though, runs out at some point. Gold and silver slid less than other assets Monday. Reason? Well they are called hard assets for cause. Financial abstractions only work as long as followers of Ponzi and Satoshi remain True to their causes. BTC hit $76,883 but it rallied overnight to over $82,000. The Donald is not the only one with directional issues, is it, then?
The lows of Monday should hold for a few hours. My recent short-term bullish streak remains. Because when you read headlines like US stock market loses $4 trillion in value as Trump plows ahead on tariffs | Reuters, it may be time to consider buying when “blood is flowing in the streets.” rumors of some big player being upside down were making the rounds. Almost insures another leg down, but then what? Aye, that’s a tough judgment call.
Glad I’m taking the day off, huh?
NFIB and JOLTS
Two items worth staying up for, now that I am: National Federation of Independent Business Outlook is one:
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.1 points in February to 100.7. This is the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 and is 4.4 points below its most recent peak of 105.1 in December. The Uncertainty Index rose four points to 104 – the second highest recorded reading.”
A few highlights?
- The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve fell ten points from January to a net 37% (seasonally adjusted).
- Twelve percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down five points from January. This is the largest monthly decrease since April 2020.
- Sixteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down two points from January and now just below labor quality as the top issue. The last time it was this low was in October 2021.
- The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 10 points from January to a net 32% (seasonally adjusted). This is the largest monthly increase since April 2021, and the third highest in the survey’s history. The percent of owners lowering their prices is 10 points lower than it was one year ago.
- Seasonally adjusted, a net 29% plan price hikes in the next three months, up three points from January and the highest reading in 11 months.
Markets look for the rally into the Monday close to continue up a hundred on the Dow, 20-ish on the S&P and the NASDAQ should firm as well.
But keep an eye on the wires at 10 AM when the Labor JOLTS report pops. Job openings, layoffs, terminations, and separations.
Then CPI tomorrow morning which we will get into – along with upwards of 24 charts over on the Peoplenomics side of the house.
Tracking
Ukraine talking peace sounds a little suspect to us with the biggest attacks on Russia in a while: Russia says massive Ukrainian drone attack thwarted as US-brokered talks kick off. No point holding breath on this front. Peace (for now) is dead, as we figure it.
American administration thwarted by an Obama-appointed NY federal judge: White House: ‘Shalom, Mahmoud’; judge halts deportation of Columbia’s Palestinian pro. The shitshow continues.
Me?
I feel a further snooze coming on,
Write when you get rich, etc.
George@Ure.net
Thanks for the quick column today, appreciated!
“BTC hit $76,883 but it rallied overnight to over $82,000. The Donald is not the only one with directional issues, is it, then?”
Lest we forget so soon Mr. Ure…. Trump doesn’t like to pay full price…..lol. Excuse me while I prepare to back up the truck.
That’s some day off.
At 0630 I am arising, hit the shower, dress, and Then into the Maxima to head to the office by 0730.
I get here, get the coffee going, boot up and Blogtrotr tells me to look at Urbansurvival. There is just about a full report is on my desktop, where I was expecting…
Congratulations!
Tell you wjhat BAB, I think work is a Ure fam addiction. There is a cure for it (death) but I hear it leaves one feeling soiled by the experience of it.
LOL! I just KNEW you wouldn’t feel right without the morning keyboard in your fingers!
Anyone ever tell you it’s not work if you enjoy doing it?
I am beginning to think we share that addiction.
I was talking to Art a weekend or so back and we were discussing what our timelines looked like.
Also had my first Annual review here and discussed the same thing.
Art and I are both looking at 5 years out and saying, “we get there and then make an assessment.” (That would be 75-76)
My boss agreed to my 32 hour schedule when I came here, and said if as time goes on I want to cut it to 3 days or 20 hours, just let him know.
That’s the nice thing about being the SME and in demand, is they will accommodate you so they can get what ever they can from you.
As we readers will to keep getting our daily fix of your wisdom.
Martin Armstrong’s angle of money flowing from EU to America to avoid the impact of war seems to old water given the currency flows to us. A UTube posting floated an interesting idea, changing the name from Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America might impact Presidential Orders banning drilling in the “Gulf of Mexico”. Different perspective, at work, in the Oval Office.
(“The Glue of America was our “work product.” We kicked-ass on deliverables. America’s enemies fear this. We were attacked by a Fog of Stupidity. Pandered by misnamed “experts” who exemplified the concept “those who can’t, teach.” Doers (and industrial arts) were sent packing. “)
Wow.. deep subject there..it was a planned event to promote greed and wealth of the top tier. the same as deregulation of the basic essentials.. but then who am I and since I am a bottom tier person what in the hell would I know..
America’s industrial strength and strong work ethic were indeed pivotal in shaping the nation’s identity and prosperity, especially during the 20th century. The combination of innovation, skilled labor, and shared purpose created an economic powerhouse.
However, globalization and the outsourcing of jobs have undeniably shifted the economic landscape. While these changes were often justified as necessary for increasing profits and reducing costs, the broader societal implications—such as economic disparities, loss of industrial jobs, and potential cultural shifts in values—have sparked significant debate.
The concern you raise about education and societal priorities is critical. Some argue that the erosion of certain educational and vocational programs has left younger generations less prepared for hands-on careers or complex global challenges. When material success and consumerism are prioritized over cultivating skills, ethics, and critical thinking, it can lead to a culture that feels disconnected from its roots.
These shifts are complex, involving policy decisions, corporate strategies, and global economic trends. What we created with the deregulation of essential elements of life is a system where individuals face greater financial burdens and uncertainty, especially in critical areas like healthcare. Balancing innovation and consumer protection is key to ensuring that deregulation doesn’t disproportionately harm the public. not even considering that availability. access inequality..if you have money and run into the doctors office your seen that day. If you don’t have money or insurance you have a choice go to the ER at twenty times the cost..which I find hilarious.. walk into the clinic at a hundred dollars but you don’t have the hundred dollars so they send you to the ER at two thousand dollars plus labs etc. the individual still doesn’t have it..so this cost is expanded by legal proceedings to get this.. these costs mount and in the end the hospital destroys the life and livelihood of those seeking to end pain and suffering. the money that they lost is still not there so the cost to the original dr.at the clinic pays for it that exacerbate disparities in access to affordable healthcare and insurance, particularly for vulnerable people in the general population. the catastrophic I had for my wife with high deductibles where they didn’t pay a dime. if it had been invested in something as simple as savings bonds.. would be coming mature right about now and would be just shy a million dollars.. its all in the business model.. the other option is..my grandson had strep throat. A temperature of 103 sicker than hell.. the clinic refused to see him. mom didn’t have insurance and the five hundred they wanted for seeing him and test costs was not in TBE cards..she worked at that time in a job of waitress..
to go to the free clinic the earliest he could be seen for this was 4 months..
the wife and I paid for the clinic visit..
this change can be fixed but at what cost.. just as many individuals would be affected with that change in the business model..
Betting the horses,I never get a day off.
I was glad for that on Saturday as I collected on Bondi Lockdown,getting $89 for my $2 and on Trump’s Girl for $26.The latter ironically was in an all female drivers’ race.
Wordslinger : “Glad I’m taking the day off, huh?”
I wondered if you’d stay on the (1) day vaca.
Old habits die hard (he said while fixated on mkts).
Here? Still making an effort to take an entire year off …
Best Regards,
Egor
ps – TNX touched 4.15 then yield rose. Lotta wobble underway
An article in the Wall Street Journal last week that said that roughly 50% of consumer spending is from the highest 10% of income earners, people who earn over $250,000 per year and up. And that’s unhealthy for our economy. It’s just not good.
The fact that most spending is at the top of the money pyramid for the American consumer and most normal people, middle class, lower middle class, lower class. They don’t have any excess money to spend on anything right now. They are hurting. And to add to the hurt, is that those people expected a little help from Trump and all they’ve received so far is a lump of coal in their stockings. And sadly, it is about the get worse.
Winston Churchill once said that: “American is the best house, in a bad neighborhood.” That’s true. The entire world is in a bad place right now., but we are still the “best house” around. I’m glad I live here. There is opportunity. There is ‘chance’. There is hope.
And maybe.., just possibly, we can turn this around before we go too far down that dark rabbit hole.
Kind of curious if that metric has ever really been different. The people with money will generally “spend” more money then those that have less money. When I was a “poor” college student and post college, I spent only on necessities. Saved money, continued to earn more money and spent on nice to haves. Even our poor are generally some of the “richest” in most of the world. I think people watch tick tock and other such influencers and believe they also deserve to be able spend as if they also have high earnings or successful investments. I have nothing but respect for someone like Bezos, who started his business and grew it to what it is and something I use at least weekly. God bless him and I would rather see him spend is own earned money, then be taken by governments and frittered away tranfers to family and friends.
Also not that about 50% of all taxes are paid by the top 5%, and about 5% by the bottom half.
Just inspecting my form I can deduce that if you are under about $27K annual income you don’t pay any federal tax.
Not that I want them to load up Grandpa and Grandma and other retirees with a bigger share.
But I should would like them to flatten the pyramid some.
They can start by enacting my $1/house trade excise tax on any automatic Computer trade done for the house front running a retail investor. Since volume per day is abou, what 2BB trades?, and only 1% of it a retail investors trade, that might balance the budget in a year or so.
your rationalizations do nothing to stop the impending crash that trump is directly causing. the stupendous economic growth in the US and of the middle class from the gilded age through the 1960’s was because government had a lot to do with it. government leveled the playing field from the robber barons so that workers had an equal chance.
You must lead a very miserable life. Do you have even one friend in the entire world ?
.
I can not recall one post you have made that was useful – or helpful – to anyone.
.
I usually do not read your B.S. “There you go again., with all the negativity.” Odd Ball [ Donald Sutherland ]
But every once in a while my filters slip and I read before I see who posted.
.
What a terrible existence you have – living just to make negative comments and call people names. I thought c____ was the ultimate Troll., but I now relegate that honored title to you. Good luck.
Trump is just the last straw on the pile of dung FJB left on the edge of the cliff.
That just is not true. Government role should be to treat people equally and enforce criminal law. The guilded age had much to do with “robber barren” innovations: railroad, telegraph, steel, steam engines, oil and coal. The market for goods expanded. We supplied the world through 2 world wars and supplied the infrastructure for rebuilding. The economic pie was expanded through innovation and productivity increases like never seen in history. Leveling the playing field had nothing to do with it. Taking money from the productive and giving to the the lazy and the greedy, does nothing but slow innovation and creates the crony and dependent classes.
Life is hard, accept that and work toward you goals. Don’t attempt to reach for you goals by voting for those that claim they will provide for you. You will always be disappointed and poorer for it.
Yes we will crash, it might be sped up due to tariffs, absolutely, but primarily this house of cards will collapse because we cannot control our government and their out of their mind spending and borrowing to debase currency. This has been completely predictable ever since we accepted the government will always borrow more then we take in and that instead of paying our way, that our children should be saddled with our debts.
Anybody else seeing articles/videos attacking Trump on a personal level? Trump smells very bad like poop or sulfur. Trump uses simple words so must have dementia. Trumps hair keeps changing color. I don’t care about that stuff. I care about how he runs the country. I don’t remember anyone saying that Obama or Hillary smelled bad until after he was out of the office and she had lost the election. Just seems like a low blow.
Its how the commies and lefties roll, hon. this too will pass…
The Democrats have no viable policy or solution to any problem, and are too immature to admit culpability for causing virtually every social and economic ill the nation now faces, or has had to deal with, for the past 170 years.
Because of this, and because they want to believe (and want voters to believe) they are still relevant, they have resorted to throwing their excrement against a wall, to see if any of it will stick, and thus give their propagandists (the “mainstream” “media”) a talking point upon which to seize, to argue their cause against Republicans who’re now in office.
After covering Joe Biden’s senile ass for 16 years, they will absolutely jump on anything they can, WRT Donald Trump’s physical, mental, or emotional health. After allowing Alex Soros and Susan Rice to run the country for four years as Biden’s “Regents,” they will absolutely accuse Musk (and probably eventually Vance, RFK, &or Gabbard) of running the country.
They can not admit that Trump is both very honest, and utterly brilliant.
The Dems ALWAYS accuse their political opponents of doing what they, themselves do and are doing. I used to think that was some kind of thought projection. I’ve come to believe it stems as much from their innate dishonesty — i.e. they believe that, since they do something untoward, the Republicans must be doing it too. IOW their actions give them license to accuse their opponents of doing those actions, and by making the accusation first, allows them preference in media coverage.
Maybe, I certainly remember articles of Joe pooping himself at an international event. I remember the stories of him falling from his bike and falling down stairs.
The politicians are not gods, they are human and have faults, there is nothing wrong with pointing that out. In fact they should be laughed at and mocked regularly because most deserve it.
They can both be doing something you believe is good, and other things that are ridiculous and worth mocking. Trump is no saint, don’t put these people up on pedestals they don’t deserve.
“I never said this, because the media will go crazy with it,” said Jones on his show Monday, “but I’ve talked to people that are in protective details, they’re scared of her. And they say listen, she’s a frickin’ demon, and she stinks and so does Obama. I go, like what? Sulfur. They smell like Hell.” Alex Jones 10/11/2016
and nope, no republican ever questioned whether a democrat may have dementia. y’all said and probably still believe that obama isn’t a US citizen. obama was ridiculed for his brown suit and using dijon mustard.
low blow??? nope, sorry you don’t get to call ‘low blow’ not after what trump and y’all have done.
https://youtu.be/BShuPXVp2N8
No, his policies stink, though
What bullshit – Billions upon billions were continuously poured into this market during Biden’s Presidency. Everyone is screaming now common sense has to prevail the market needs a rest a relief rally is needed. I didn’t hear anyone screaming the above while the market powered higher. I didn’t hear it recently when META went up 17 straight days – didn’t hear a word when NVDA ran from 100 to 1400. The marginal buyer is not coming back – who was the marginal buyer? 1,000’s of NGO’s who powered the market higher with levered ODTE call options and god only knows what other derivatives. They are the sellers and guess what they have to because the tax payer supported pump a thon is ending under Musk – why do you think Trump asked him to slow down? What’s incredible and I have to hand it to Stu this is one of a few sites that has clued you in to Iran vs Israel/US and Egypt/Israel that could explode any minute. Who says a bounce has to occur? stuck Bulls. Trump will it appears be the War President. This is the gift the Neocons have handed him the crash/War, and he is too arrogant and thinks he’ll power thru it….. I’m just some stupid hay seed but it just won’t matter.
Let me be blunt and say some stuff the most Americans do NOT want to hear.
The US is bankrupt in the Industrial Production Arena. We don’t make squat here for all intents and purposes. China IS NOW the manufacturing powerhouse of the world and the US is now not even a minor player in the overall game. The data I posted a week or so about Ocean Shipping was just another “data point” in the mass of data all showing the same thing.
China out does the US now in almost every manufacturing dynamic except for Aerospace by 10 to 1, in some categories by 50 to 1 (ship building it is over 300:1: concrete 50:1; metals average out at about 15:1 to 20:1 – these are the BASIC BUILDING BLOCKS of an industrial country)
Sure we can still invent stuff, but that may not last much longer. China last year had more patents issued to it than the US and Europe COMBINED … and in Basic Research, you know the kind of research that provides for the NEW stuff 30 and 40 years out, China is now outspending the US 10:1!
Nearly 1/3 of all PhD grad students in the hard sciences in the US at our best universities are Chinese, and guess what? They will take our training back to China to build NEW businesses and industries THERE, not here. (another 20%+- are from India and most of those probably won’t be sticking around either).
Sure we make lots of money via Sports /Entertainment /Selling paper this and paper that to each other … but is that REAL wealth? When push comes to shove and you need a new set of pots and pans can you cook with that paper your friendly insurance company or stock broker sold you (which in reality is now probably just a light pixel on a screen)?
The “Thucydides Trap” is facing us right up front and personal, staring us right in our faces … but most are clueless including most in DC, most in Academia, and most in Finance. Only those in the manufacturing world see it and believe it … but they have now long been sidelined by the crappy Harvard Business School Model and the New York /Academic Finance people.
Martin Armstrong’s computer, Socrates has long had China being the dominant world power, economically and politically, come 2032/33 … with the US being a vastly declined second rate power at that point in time (if it even remains intact as one country).
I have been watching for the dynamic develop for 45 years now and agree with Socrates. It saddens me, but the US has tossed both it’s Moral and Economic leadrship down the toilet for short term benefits.
Since BOTH are now gone we are probably facing the “Thucydides Trap” war in the time frame before 2033. Some would even argue that it has already begun and is already being viciously fought behind the scenes, not yet out in public view, with millions already dead … and I can’t say I would disagree with them, in fact I believe that to be the case.
Interesting times for our Morally Bankrupt country just ahead.
I agree with most of what you said, but China has some severe issues of its own. Its birth rate is already below replacement rates, they are aging very quickly, people are not getting married (backbone of civilization is the family). The government can just take over your industry on a whim leaving the innovators subservient to the party members. The air and water pollution is overwhelming from all that industry. Their population is getting tired of being slaves to the government. Can we recover, I am not confident there as much of our population believe someone else should take care of them and they desire to do only minimum effort at any job. It will take quite a shift in mentality for our population to work 6 days a week 12 hours a day to compete with China, but their population will not continue to accept this either.