Markets are going through what we’d call in electronics, a kind of Class-B moment.
In electronics, Class-B amplifiers are often called “push-pull” configurations:
“In a push-pull Class B circuit, two complementary transistors (NPN and PNP in bipolar junction transistors or N-channel and P-channel in MOSFETs) are used, each conducting for only half of the input waveform cycle—one transistor handles the positive half, while the other handles the negative half. This design significantly reduces power dissipation when no signal is present, achieving efficiencies up to 78.5% under ideal conditions.”
Using our (highly refined) skills in extensible thinking, we can pivot the concept into Finance.
Some events will tend to Push the market (higher) while other events will Pull (lower).
When markets closed for the weekend, some of our key indicators were hinting that “change might be in the air.” But “life changes over time” (oh boy, does it!) and the early Futures today were less than stellar.
BitDrop
If you didn’t notice the Crypto decline recently, Bitcoin fell to the vicinity of $80,000 over the weekend.
To a very long-term skeptic (like me) you can almost see a long-term Elliott 5-wave progression to the movements:
True Believers will doubtless argue that Elliot Wave structures can’t be applied to bubbles. ChatGPT thinks otherwise:
“Yes, Tulipmania likely followed an Elliott Wave structure in its price movement. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, speculative bubbles often exhibit a five-wave impulse pattern in their ascent, followed by a sharp three-wave corrective decline. Here’s how Tulipmania might align with this framework:
Wave 1 (Initial Smart Money Buying) – Early interest in tulips as a status symbol and investment.
Wave 2 (First Correction) – Prices dip as early profit-takers exit.
Wave 3 (Mania Phase) – The speculative frenzy kicks in, and prices go parabolic as more people jump in.
Wave 4 (Temporary Decline/Consolidation) – Some traders take profits, but the public remains euphoric.
Wave 5 (Final Blow-off Top) – Prices peak in a climactic surge of irrational exuberance.
This is then followed by an ABC correction:
A-Wave: The initial price drop as fear sets in.
B-Wave: A dead-cat bounce as some traders attempt to buy the dip.
C-Wave: A final devastating crash, wiping out most speculative gains.
This pattern is seen in many historical bubbles, including the 1929 stock market crash, the dot-com bubble, and Bitcoin’s various boom-bust cycles. Tulipmania’s rapid rise and collapse mirror this wave behavior, making it a classic Elliott Wave-style mania.”
I’ve been studying financial bubbles since 1971 and one of the paradoxes of them is “the faster the communication of market information, the slower the bubble evolves.” This was later partially confirmed in work out of X-PARC models in the 1990s.
Notwithstanding the details we can plug in other Bubbles (like the South Seas Bubble) and observe (with a side of AI):
- Both exhibit classic boom-and-bust cycles, resembling an Elliott Wave-style rise and collapse.
- The South Sea Bubble was much shorter-lived (about 2 years) compared to Bitcoin’s multi-year cycles.
- Bitcoin saw multiple rebounds, while the South Sea Bubble collapsed permanently.
The logarithmic scale helps compare the different magnitudes of price movements.
If we follow the work of Cesare Marchetti (on S-curver growth stochastics) we can actually see an implied “second tech ubble” within the whole Crypto space is likely playing out now. (If you don’t know of Marchetti’s work, a good introductory article is here).
In other words, in Early Bubble, BTC was a kind of “lone eagle”. However, as challengers came along (ETH, XRP, etc) the second stochastic appeared.
Ahead is the 1929 Problem
On our Peoplenomics side, we like to track how our current (financialization blow-off) is playing out compared with 1929. By looking at where the BTC stochastics are – and then mentally overlaying the 1929 and 2025 financial markets – it’s pretty hard to get to a “Happily Ever After” outcome.
As you can see, there was a brief interlude in 1929 (red arrow above) which is where my notion of being a “Two week Bull” came from. The bad news? Well, our Aggregate Index is looking a tad less than “stunning” today:
But we’ve been telling you about this stuff for years, and as long as you remember you can make money going up or down in markets, it’s really no “big deal” unless you’re on the wrong side of the trade. And that is precisely why everything we write is accompanied by “This is NOT Financial advice!”
Life advice? Well, we still like having no debt, living in a double-wide mobile home in the woods, and having 3G out here. (Grub, Guns, and God. Beyond 4G, not much useful left in the dictionary, but ya’ll have fun with the self-cooking programs.)
There’s a fine line between statistical acumen, a prepper mindset, and paranoia.
A (Seriously Complicated) Liberal Trigger
First the story: ICE arrests Palestinian activist who helped lead Columbia University protests : NPR
Then the *(sounds liberal to us) reaction in a Comment:
“A “Palestinian activist” who has led protests was arrested on bogus charges and it has been openly admitted that this was in support of Trumps outlawing any “anti-Semitic” activities. Lets just be honest about it, Trump is an ass kissing whore for the Israelis and it is fully obvious.”
The reaction continued (I hope the reader checked his BP!). But my answer was less knee-jerk liberal:
“”…in the NPR coverage, the keys were “Greer said she spoke by phone with one of the ICE agents during the arrest, who said they were acting on State Department orders to revoke Khalil’s student visa.
So, he is NOT an American (per se) (and thus entitled to Constitutional protections).
Second point in the story was that:
“Greer said she spoke by phone with one of the ICE agents during the arrest, who said they were acting on State Department orders to revoke Khalil’s student visa. Informed by the attorney that Khalil was in the United States as a permanent resident with a green card, the agent said they were revoking that instead, according to the lawyer.”
Now, can the State Dept. revoke a green card? (Yes)
Here are the main reasons a green card can be revoked:
- Fraud or Misrepresentation: If it’s discovered that the green card was obtained through fraudulent means (e.g., fake marriage, falsified documents), it can be revoked.
- Abandonment of Residency: If an LPR spends too much time outside the U.S. (typically more than 6 months without a reentry permit, or more than a year), authorities may determine they’ve abandoned their residency status.
- Criminal Activity: Certain crimes, especially those classified as “aggravated felonies” or crimes of moral turpitude, can lead to deportation proceedings and green card revocation.
- National Security Concerns: If an individual is deemed a threat to national security, their status can be revoked.
- Administrative Errors: In rare cases, a green card may be revoked if it was issued in error (e.g., incorrect eligibility).
Now, if the President says he has a security concern about a (non-US Citizen) who is organizing protests that disrupt a publicly funded (in part) college or university than while it is not “the old way” of doing things, it’s Trump’s way. He is “messaging” to anti-American interests.
We also need to remember that Free Speech is just that – “speech.” As the Marxists of Oregon have learned (however slowly) free speech does not extend to disrupting the lives (and educations) of full Citizens who are going about their normal conduct of business. In Oregon, that’d be driving on a public city street (blocked by further than Speech actions) or at a University where classes were canceled. That’s more than “speech”. Blocking my road ain’t protected speech. Period. Getting in my way (obstructing MY freedoms) isn’t Speech, either.
I happen to agree that Trump is too ‘pro Israel’ for my own tastes. He is very likely to deploy American military support for the upcoming Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear plants. To me, that’s a clear ‘Act of War” when it comes. This should be specifically voted up or down by Congress, per the Constitution – and in advance.
On the other hand, Israel’s size is a whole history in and of itself: Its size today (compared with 1948) depends on who’s measuring. It is….
- Larger, if you include the Golan Heights and the parts of the West Bank under Israeli control, as this totals more than the 1948 borders.
- Slightly larger, if you only count the internationally recognized 1948 borders plus the Golan Heights (since Sinai was returned).
- Smaller, if you strictly compare the 1948 borders to only the pre-1967 territory minus Gaza (but Gaza was never Israeli in 1948—it was Egyptian-controlled).
Yes, it’s a mess. Trump may be viewed too pro Israel, BUT when public activities are curtailed in any way, that action is well beyond speech and subject to other enforcement as allowed by statute.
The (Whole World) is coming to a critical junction. This plays into it. One reason why the Doomsday Clock is closer than ever to “nuclear midnight” is expansion of the “Nuclear Club.” If Israel attacks Iran to keep IT out of the Club, then the U.S. could strike North Korea if they get too public, too close, as well. But that would bring in Club Member China. Boom!
So the radical organizer goes away, but Congress should in our view consider long and hard whether to support a pre-emptive strike on Iran. Because that leads to this headline: North Korea fires ballistic missiles as U.S.-South Korea joint military drill kicks off – UPI.com. Case law, right?
Scrollers for Trollers
We have long held Congress is populated by persons ignorant of Federal law. Here’s more proof: Crockett Sparks Debate by Claiming Illegal Border Crossings Are Not a Crime. She’s from Texas???? Where’s my checkbook….can I make it out to “Anybody BUT”?
Liberal Coup continues in Canada as Justin Trudeau has resigned and Canada’s Liberal party has selected Mark Carney as his replacement. Jordan Peterson on this Marxist.… Address your complaints to “Statehood Dept, 1900 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, D.C….”
Seems like DOGE is doing the job the Government Accountability sham failed todo (again): DOGE Says Children Received $312M In Loans Meant For Small Businesses During COVID Pandemic.. And as for how Deep State Actors had the reins of power? “State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce says “What we’ve discovered at USAID is troubling enough to where this is the kind of conversation that is perhaps going to have to be had by the American people and even perhaps Congress” When asked about the DOJ she says “I don’t know”
Takes one to know one Dept- Musk: “George Soros is a system hacker. He is a genius at arbitrage. He figured out you could leverage a small amount of money to create a non-profit then lobby politicians to send a ton of money to it, so you can take what might be a $10M donation and leverage that into a $1B NGO.”
Wait, what time is it?
At the Ranch: From Captain Gooding
My long-time friend, who we refer to as “Captain Gooding” (though his actual rank is much higher) blesses us with his occasional wisdom and perspective. His outlook today is a dandy:
Unbuilding the colossus of fraud, waste, and abuse we live within is going to take a while.
It took decades to grow – arguably a full lifetime for Boomers – and undoing it is going to be more complicated than unraveling the Gordian knot. And it cannot simply be slashed apart. We will need that rope to get out of the pit of despair we find ourselves in. Although much of the more recent outright (albeit carefully concealed) theft and grift can be chased down one set of perpetrators at a time, in the end, it will take multiple RICO cases, and a whole lot of prison sentences to begin to get to the roots of the rot.
Treason charges and group hangings (rope is reusable and environmentally friendly; bullets cost a lot more) will almost certainly be required eventually. But then what?
There’s this stuff called dry rot in wood. It’s sadly all too common in older wooden boats. An external glance reveals nothing – the wood looks fine, especially under a few coats of paint. But take a sharp probe to it, like a scratch awl or ice pick, and the point sinks right in. The inside of the wood has turned into something like a cellulose sponge. It has no strength left, and under stress, fails.
Only one of two things can be done: rip it out and replace it (invariably costly and time consuming) or inject the rotten wood with a thin solution of epoxy hardener. Lots of mixing of resins and probing spongy wood with sharp needles on the ends of giant syringes, but if properly done, the hardened resin reinforces the spongy wood, turning it into a strong composite material.
We face national level decisions at institutional levels.
What parts of our governmental structures do we want to do wholesale “rip it out and replace it” jobs on, and which parts can be saved by injections of new strengthening materials? The first COA sometimes costs less, but it means that during the work, that function, that part of the vessel is inoperative. Often, a dry docking is required, and the vessel is unusable for extended time frames during repairs.
On the other hand, the use of a hardener like “Git Rot” usually allows the vessel to stay at anchor, or afloat besides the dock. But the money saved by not hauling out is usually eaten up in the cost of repair materials. And getting the stuff injected is fiddly work, invariably requiring contortionist skills while wearing a respirator, because the fumes are pretty noxious until the stuff has hardened fully. (Think fiberglass resin in close quarters…)
Some elements of governance are absolutely required, while others are in the “nice to have” category. We simply cannot haul out the ship of state and do full scale “rip and replace” work everywhere. The administration will need to identify where heavy injections of new blood (i.e.: new people) can save an institution. Air traffic control comes to mind immediately.
Some parts of the existing system will require immediate reinforcement, while a new system is being shaped in the shop. Once all the parts are fabricated, a rapid full rebuild can be done.
But all this will take time, talent (which may have to be taught or retaught), and invariably, trea$ure.
It’s a huge ask of a society that has become accustomed to almost instant answers, without demanding any hard work be done first. Gen Z has a lot of growing up to do, and will find it hard to do without their phones. And Millennials will need to come to grips with both their anger management and angst handling skills. (Sometimes, yes, it really is you who are to blame. Learn to deal with that.)
Reprogramming their Gen Z worker bees and “reports”will require a lot of both to be dealt with.
And, yeah, Gen X and Boomers both are going to have to do some belt tightening. And many, perhaps most, Boomers are not used to that. When laid off millennials are competing with Boomers for those Walmart, Lowes, and Home Depot vests, discriminating factors like who shows up to work on time (yeah, every day) and who doesn’t have their face in a phone constantly are going to become more serious hiring factors.
Gonna be interesting.
Near as I can tell, most of the younger folks these days expect to get sweaty only in hot yoga or some sort of athletic pursuit. The thought of doing potentially dangerous physical work in all weathers, oh, and starting at the crack of dawn, yeah, they are not so into that. Poor woodgies. Welcome to the real world. There’s so much to learn, Mr. Mister said.
All these are cultural and institutional generational realities that are going to make this campaign of national renewal and repair a long, slow slog. It’s only just begun.
I recommend joining a bowling league. It’s almost always comfortable there in side a bowling alley, cold weather or hot. And you can usually get a decent sandwich. Anybody a member of the Odd Fellows? Or the BPOE? We as a nation also need to rebuild our civic society, ripped asunder by the draconian, and evil, responses to COVID-19. Benevolent organizations like those really do help knit the fabric of society together.
Yep, we’re in an awful way, with a long way to go, and a short time to get there. (More rock and roll folk wisdom, there.) Remember, we built this city on rock and roll. Turn it up, and let’s get back to work.
Yes, I’m Taking Tuesday Off
Told you this was coming – I am going to “dial it back” on the free (UrbanSurvival) side. Peoplenomics.com is still just $40 a year and it hasn’t changed price since 2001. (Go ahead, name something else like that…)
I started working at age 14. That was 1963. (25 cents an hour to shelve library books!). After 62-years of full time (and beyond) I am cutting back to five days a week, not 7+.
If you’re not a subscriber to Peoplenomics, see here.
I will still come in to approve comments. Unlike big social media, we actually human review comments. But it’s nearly spring and much needs to be done. We have many and much to do.
(ShopTalk Sunday is here if you missed it.)
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
George,
Thanks for the link on your Saturday post on Peoplenomics. Yes, there is quite a bit on my plate right now. We are packing up a $250 million facility, and we’re still not sure of our future. It’s down to a few weeks now, and this is my sad example of leadership in this country.
The people in charge have no long range vision; it’s all about what is in the funding pot at the moment. Beggars can’t be too picky.
My ringside seat allows me to see how bad it will get when crunch time comes. You can’t see the ground from those ivory towers. Leaders winging it, pun intended, will not work.
Sadly, Trump will do Israel’s bidding, and an attack on Iran is when all the bad stuff in my books begins… This will most likely include his replacement.
I know people are smoking Trump Hopium, and he could have a real shot at creating change, but it will all get lost in the noise of war. It will be regarded as the stupidest move in history.
How bad will it get? Imagine Iranian missile attacks on Israel’s nuclear facilities. Imagine US bases being taken out across the Middle East. That is called world war.
What is asymmetric warfare? That is not in the Boomers, the Millennials, or the Gen X’s lexicons.
Like your fresh veggies and fruits? Imagine terrorist cells in America poisoning the food supply and destroying infrastructure. It will all come crashing down like a house of cards.
Just getting by will come down to having the basics as you have preached on this website for over two-decades now.
God help us, everyone!
Poisoning our food from within the usa…
67%of outdoor supply is made and packaged in another country. what is it less than one percent gets checked…..grain fries around the wastelands were bought by companies owns by another country.. popular food packaging plants …medications I don’t believe any of mine are made on us soil…IV solutions all packaged and made in countries without water standards.. it could get ugly
Our food product supplies…
As of January 2024, there are 132 operable oil refineries in the United States. These refineries are distributed across various states and play a crucial role in processing crude oil into various petroleum products.
The disruption of operations in just 20% of these facilities would cause a huge problem for gas and diesel production. A coordinated attack on 20 to 25 % would cause a screeching halt to the transportation of goods & people.
Of course, you have one major problem with such an idea. The idiots just can’t keep their collective mouths shut and post what they are planning.
But.., it is a viable possibility.
Mad Max- Road Warrior 1981
Narrator: My life fades. The vision dims. All that remains are memories. I remember a time of chaos… ruined dreams… this wasted land. But most of all, I remember The Road Warrior. The man we called “Max.” To understand who he was, you have to go back to another time… when the world was powered by the black fuel… and the desert sprouted great cities of pipe and steel. Gone now… swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war, and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all. Without fuel they were nothing. They’d built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men. On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed… men like Max… the warrior Max. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything… and became a shell of a man… a burnt-out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past, a man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here, in this blighted place, that he learned to live again.
https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0082694/quotes/?item=qt0201170
dLynn : we are in the tariff hot zone, with Michigan likely in the cross hairs irt crude and electricity from our Northern neighbors. It’s about the only product we need destined to get more expensive. A friend who formerly worked at the BP Whiting, IN refinery. It’s an enormous plant and designed to process Canadian “heavy” crude. My question to friend is can they modify for US “sweet” crude -or- is that a years long process?
Shirley any take-down of even a few refineries would cause angst. Here we have the winter fuel reserve in stocks. Guess I’ll keep the reserve back instead of burning it as per usual?
It’s getting really sporty out there today. The SPX really needed to hold 5,700 but … didn’t. 5,400 or 4,954 need to hold or that Index may so%on start with a “3” … Still frosty?
Iceman Egor
There are three refineries in Indiana. BP in the Calumet, Rock Island in Indianapolis, and the Farm Bureau Co-op’s Countrymark in Mt. Vernon (wherever that is.)
The U.S. has not built a new refinery since 1979, because EPA rules became so draconian, so quickly, that the PetCos couldn’t cut the red tape. I used to read constant bitching on the VW forums because of our policies…
Speaking of electronics the market is now managed.
Analog tools no longer work on a digital market.
https://scitechdaily.com/chinas-new-quantum-machine-runs-one-million-times-faster-than-googles/
From the article.
Quantum supremacy, the ability of a quantum computer to perform tasks beyond the reach of classical computers, has been a key goal in the field. In 2019, Google’s 53-qubit Sycamore processor completed a random circuit sampling task in 200 seconds, a feat estimated to take 10,000 years on the world’s fastest supercomputer at the time.
However, in 2023, USTC researchers demonstrated more advanced classical algorithms capable of completing the same task in 14 seconds using over 1,400 A100 GPUs. With the advent of the Frontier supercomputer, equipped with expanded memory, this task can now be performed in just 1.6 seconds, effectively challenging Google’s earlier claim of quantum supremacy.
Why is it – that every time I read about the advancement in quantum computers, I get a little queasy in the stomach ?
The world is going to change dramatically once they start shipping.
., and my gut feeling is that it will not be “for the good”.
.., and what happens when the first A.I. quantum super computer comes on-line ? I can only hope that they build-in a ‘kill-switch’.
Something I’ve noted for over 50 years now:
Asians, in general (yeah, I already know that’s a bad start) are lousy at invention. However, they are extraordinary at taking something invented elsewhere and making it better, faster, cheaper, and often, more-relevant to the initial job for which the invention was created.
“Zuchongzhi-3 operates at an astonishing speed, performing computations 10^15 times faster than the most powerful supercomputer available today and one million times faster than Google’s latest published quantum computing results.”
Simply astounding…
https://www.business-standard.com/technology/tech-news/china-ai-manus-vs-openai-google-anthropic-125031000274_1.html
From the article.
“What is Manus?
Manus is an advanced AI agent designed to think, plan, and execute real-world tasks on its own. It can create websites, plan trips, analyse stocks, and much more — just from a single user prompt. Unlike standard AI chatbots, which provide answers, Manus takes full action to complete tasks. For example, if asked to create a report on climate change, it will research, write the report, create charts, and compile everything into a final document without needing further instructions.”
robot movement recognlzation switches movement,?
Immaculate Fire ?
HELLO! – Wakey wakey ?!
Signs are everywhere, and they all warn of same SCHEISSE..
Its raining CowinkyDinks today https://twitter.com/i/status/1899079052029219154
Can not agree moar wit Stu’s concerns regards Iranians and their weapons – they wont bother nuclear, but skip right over to plasma weapons..scheisse we aint never seen..M. Keshe knows..”Only Defensive” same deal with Ruskies high tech weapons..”only defensive” , for now..
Not just stus..
alois Irlmair said it would be the beginning as well..
Yes, I have read Keshe’s work. There is the possibility of Iranian Directed Energy Weapons, in conjunction with Russia and China’s use.
There has to be a reason why Nostradamus see’s Iran as being the last to be taken out in October of 2038.
the Captain Gooding report is very good, A to Z
I just want to add, that I’ve used super glue to harden wood on ‘small’ areas, NOT on boat repairs, but a soft spot on front porch step and the boys with spring-piston air guns use super glue to harden the wood stock under the front stock screws,,, I do not know how long it will last.
WeBboats : I have done a lot of epoxy work, great outlet here in state, Gougeon Brothers, Inc. market West System line (also sold on The Zon). West is a highly reliable purveyor of poxy Resin®, Hardeners, Fillers, Additives, Reinforcing Materials, Metering Pumps, and Application Tools. In particular their measuring pumps are outstanding (yielding perfekt mix every time).
https://www.westsystem.com/
Pushing even raw mixed resin through a large core plastic (disposable) hypodermic is not east. I have injected some material to generate internal rigidity but … generally think the exterior coats are strong as heck. People don’t realize how strong set and cured epoxy becomes. Think : hit with a hammer.
Best, Egor
Yo G,
Whats with the lazy ass cop-out at writing daily newsie ? Cant believe what I am reading this AM. Sign of the times I guess, lazy ass Males tired of eating shit shit all day everyday just up and walkaway, frustrated and angry.
Why so angry ? dam this Rap Music..think it might be affecting Ure overall attitude towards work. I mean really if you know any adult Males willing to work 5 days a week or more, please let me know.
In meantime feeling like Im getting ripped offf – “Paying” for 7 days a week “subscription” and now youse are telling me No Tuesday ! What the what – should be double shot Tuesday, not minus shot tuesday.
Another sign of the times – pissing on my leg, and telling me its raining !
Horsefeathers!
* Hope you can enjoy Ure welll deserved Tuesdays off – ya know Im just busting nutz, right?
Had a ‘good’ morning. [ set it up roughly a hour before the close Friday and held over the weekend.] NASDAQ down over 3% [ -601 as of right now. ] I got out when it hit minus 565. [ which was close to my math-target.] Nice addition to the cheeseburger trading account.
I’ll check back in about an hour before the close and see how things look.
“Carnac The Magnificent” is down over a thousand points. And Bitcoin dropped below $80k for a bit, but is back over that magical, albeit – meaningless – $80,000 mark. Currently down just over $2,800.
Off to the vegetable garden for a few hours…,
Have a good one………
(“It took decades to grow – arguably a full lifetime for Boomers “)
I know I was shocked that congress sent almost a trillion dollars the moment they got back in session to projects that had been shut down when I was still in grade school…its like no one has a clue what they are doing… some members of congress weren’t even born when they were shut down. the corruption is way worse than my worst nightmares.. the people receiving this corrupted funds..are big and dangerous.. abso!Ute power the kind that erases whole countries..
may our heavenly father protect those trying to correct this wrong..
I put a bid on the perfect house for me last night. Needs alot of superficial work but it is in a great location and ticks all the right boxes. I withdrew the bid this morning because I decided now is not the time for unnecessary life chaos. My current house is in good repair and is inexpensive to live in as it is paid off and well insulated with new heating/cooling. My daughter and granddaughter live with me and are looking for their “perfect” house. Buying this new house woild cause all kinds of family drama that could be potentially endless. There will be other houses so I’ll wait until she moves out. But I have also thought about this site. Do I want to be in the middle of a house renovation and move and selling my old house this spring when all kinds of drama are predicted to occur? It’s a good time to stay put.
Wise move Eleanor. Stability in a time of chaos makes a lot of sense, especially for seniors. You are comfortable in a home that you bought and paid for. Your daughter and granddaughter are there with you as companions and available to help in any emergency.
Sit tight and fasten your seatbelt. You have friends on this site as long as the power stays on.
Oct 2022 NASDAQ was bouncing off lows in 10,000 range (pick your low), late 2024 it shot up over 100% (in 2 yrs) to over 20,000. In some individual stocks the UP moves have been mind blowing ……….. recent weeks its been down some, sure ………….. so if you let greed get to you, then it is what it is …. how low will it go? ….. no telling, figuring political and WallStreet casino games, anything is possible … but “they” will control the sheep as they will … good luck all
I know it seems like Trump is too into Israel, but if you knew the background details, you would understand his focus.
The big plan is simple, kill the USA, then kill Israel, then the world dies in fire.
You can see why that might bother him.
The problem is, “we can’t.”
Whether European, North (or South) African, indigenous American, or PacIslander, Western Man has been “winning” since Genghis’ kids kicked the bucket. {I define “winning” here as: not facing a species genocide}. Yeah, Indian tribes annihilated other tribes. Cortez did his thing and Western Europeans & North Africans helped, but we did not clear-cut the continent of the natives.
We can not conceive of Iran, nuking us off the planet, because we already know that the Russians and Chinese won’t. THEY know the value of our land and ourselves, and know retribution would be swift and complete. The Iranians don’t care, because they are driven, not by power or avarice, or even self-preservation, but by religious ideology. (How many retaliatory or “second-strike” U.S. missiles do y’all suppose have Tehran keyed into their targeting? If your guess is anything other than “zero,” you are wrong.)
As I said here many years ago: We won’t know Iran has a nuke, until they have enough to take us, and Israel, (and perhaps also, Europe) off the map. I still stand by that statement. Next year, Iran will have had the capability of hitting us with a missile launched from Iran, for 30 years. That’s a long time to have a space program and not bastardize it for military purposes…
Enjoy Ure Tuesday’s off. If you are dialing back to 5 days, then what is your second day ? Don’t say Sunday, because you need Shoptalk as an excuse to spend money on projects, without intervention by adult supervision.
I can’t wait for DOGE to start finding phony SS numbers ’cause the recipient is a foreign entity. I mean, a foreign numbered-account bank, political party or intelligence agency might well be 157+ years old.
Hit a stop-point and came back in to get another cup of coffee and thought I’s take a peek. Looks as though I got out a wee bit early. I figured the downside would stall around -3.5 to -3.6.., nope – now down -3.9%. I do that quite often. When I hit my math-target I close out. Need to learn to just move my stops up and walk away. [ But I have been saying that for years and still can’t do it.]
* * *
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates that GDP is expected to decline by 2.4% in the first quarter [ Jan Feb Mar ].., and the full impact of the double-shock of the trade war and DOGE cuts yet to come, it is highly likely that growth will slow even more then forecast.
2nd Quarter [ Apr May Jun ] is now projected to be negative GDP.
My “T.I. Scientific” now says that the U.S. will enter a recession within a few months. 90 days. The odds are now over 75%. Credit delinquencies, in all sectors are climbing higher every week. Conventional estimates underestimate the likely “growth hit” to the U.S. from higher tariffs. Most estimates ignore the supply-side effects of higher tariffs. Instead they are focused on the demand-side. [Did you know that 80% of the electronic chips manufactured in the U.S. go to Ontario Canada for advance testing – and our own products now fall under the new tariffs.]
Two of the biggest and best fund managers that I follow have cut their exposure to stocks and will continue to sell stocks throughout March and are over-weight in cash.., and are recommending the same for their clients. [ that’s tens of billions $$ ]
Originally [ in December ] I did not see a recession happening any time soon.., but I did not see the trade wars coming, nor the DOGE rampage. Both of which are going to hit earnings and raise unemployment., slowing consumer spending – which was holding off the recession.
“Stay Frosty !”
re: Carneyval in Canada
feat: ‘Urban tunes leary Channel
Folks,
Readers of today’s ‘Urban may have clicked the Peterson link above which offers commentary about Canada’s Carney. Clinical psychologist Dr. J. Peterson has a PhD. from McGill with offspring named in homage to a late Soviet leader of Perestroika. His academic researches into matters of mind and body apparently led down a path of debilitating drug dependency according to “Wikipedia”. Extended medical care was sought from a Moscow clinic familiar with ‘inducing coma towards addiction cure’. Thankfully one is given to understand that the good Doctor has returned to the West from Russia with a full deck of cards in hand for a continuance of his persuasive works.
As an aside, Dr. Peterson is a brother-in-law to the microprocessor engineer, Mr. Jim Keller. His cv includes accomplishments with AMD, Apple, and a VP slot with Tesla.
Haven’t made it back out to the garden.., had to help “The Mrs.” out on a couple of things., then decided to check my email.
A few days ago, a guy I know sent me a photo of his raised beds [ vegetable garden ] He saw mine several years back and thought it was a great idea.
The photo showed that he has six tomato plants and four pepper plants in the ground. I told him that he might be a little early for planting.., he scoffed at me.
This morning I sent him the five day forecast. We will be dropping into the 20’s., heavy rain., with possibility of a few snow showers later in the week. The month of Match can be rather nasty around here in some years.
So.., me not getting back out to the Veggie garden, just yet, is not a very big deal. Though the green house is getting kind of crowded. ., and I have one more starter tray to get going. Think I’ll go get that done right now., before “The Mrs” finds something else she needs help on.
Anyone else planting a garden this Spring ?