Although sometimes labeled a “perma-bear” there are times when we actually do like the long side of things. Not so much because of the State of the Union (yawns). But because of technical indicators which we will go over in today’s ChartPack.
Then there’s the non-trivial matter of Downsizing – my latest book which I tend to serialize here on the Peoplenomics site because it’s part and parcel of our “Not losing at Life” approach to things.
So pour a second cup – there’s a fair amount to drink in
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puppets and their master,,, aka the democrats and their multiple mouths saying the same thing,,, we all seen the vids,,
seems to be proof of their being puppets,,, mouthing their master’s words
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1896970392025374927
the kleptocracy must be protected, by those who benefit from it,,,
“Not so much because of the State of the Union (yawns)”
Axed the BetterHalf last night what she thought of the ongoing SotU address to connedgress (We bees the conned) as she was coming out to say “nite-nites last night..her classic reply..”finally someone with half a brain”. Prezactly ! Women has a way of summing up and capturing my thoughts exactly. Now on its surface half a brain may not sound like much, that is until youse compare it to a leftist, progressive, demoncrat WHOLE brain or obidens gray splatter.
In a simple side by side comparison of tRUMPS Brain to any Brain on the other side/dark side – we are talking like a “10 bagger” = 10x, when compared to pedo jo’s gray mashed potato brains, we bee talkin 100x..easy.
Still think tRUMP is one of the Funniest Presidents to ever hold the office. Great taste, middlin Golf game, great sense of humor, really decent brain pan, willing to listen to smart advisors..solid chance this guy. Think I will be buying Win, Place Show Tickets/Betting Reciepts on this here admin – This “Horse”, of a different color, has a legit chance at the podium..https://youtu.be/YGAPKnHcGDM?si=6oAtb6AJBkIiVZnM
Not far out enough for todays “times”, so I must present MOAR proof everything we have been told/shown is a LIE.
What really is the T-minus ? SATAN -T = S A N A ..Not Actually Such Agency ? – https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2165103&post_id=158396334&utm_source=cross-post&utm_campaign=256692&isFreemail=false&r=1kk4yd&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo5NDk5ODAzNywicG9zdF9pZCI6MTU4Mzk2MzM0LCJpYXQiOjE3NDExMzI3ODMsImV4cCI6MTc0MzcyNDc4MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTIxNjUxMDMiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.Tcj65sq_kNSAq0MvgeyuvsUd1_EMfhR5uOysGr0SGvw
Go ahead and try to DEBUNK – zombieclowns, PLEASE.
USA started recession post Biden and motto…world save me and I will save it..money wise..print till you drop.
Trump,, cut costs, cut baby boomer anticipated spending downturns as they die..expecially post covid 2 outcomes with depressed immune systems… and marginal life expectancy (at least 10 years less)..
Trump…cut government…back to conservative and pay as you go..not Biden baby boomers… see above
Trump… tariffs.. disconnect..not funds flows… but bigger picture is Europe rudderless… no leader…just ‘games’….outcome with no NG to Germany is no funds… depression by 2028..fix is arms industry…like Germany WW2 Hitler prior to fixing eastern Europe (probably British issues)..then Russia did invade eastern ‘germany’.
As rudderless…arms means recession Europe…needs 25% us stocks investments to do it as no local funds…not so sure of 7T in local Europe dollars and US inflation as goes home…
Canada and Mexico..diversion.. US wants security with all above… up to now none…shows post Biden blinge with baby boomer funds that only money drives north and south…
versus export driven… movement industry to other countries also under way.
Greater empires on the rise is demographics, oil based, food based, politic based movement driven by drivers underway.
Post 2028 Charles reign…British commonwealth more likely to be anti german… and not like trumps agenda above..
Russia..surrounded by historic issues (Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine, Siberia/china/Mongolia democracy, Korea, Japan, Tukistan) you may need to deal with one or all…enough for one, not enough for all… British view is three cups upside down..guess nut in the right one..you win, guess wrong you loose…British have tech, funds, food via commonwealth but not Germany ‘issues’. Post 2028 prior 2000-brit exit investments in Iran and Russia (Yeltsin) may pay off…’bribes’.
Poor Germany…Dubai could have sent Natural Gas (NG) to Germany via Gaza and Egypt with passthru via Isreal and pass thru fees for Gaza buildings.
This link found in the PN section is significant:
https://www.infowars.com/posts/bombshell-gen-flynn-names-victoria-nuland-in-trump-assassination-plot-says-big-money-laundering-operation-in-ukraine-will-be-exposed
First, while Flynn is not above getting involved in partisan operative propaganda, he is addressing those issues where in the recent Joe Rogan interview, Musk clammed up and started whining about being in the crosshairs for assassination if he goes public.
The thing about it is, of all the public figures who might comment on this subject, he is likely the one who knows where the largest numbers of bodies are buried, even more so than Musk or Trump, so I would have to take him seriously. He probably said as much as he could without violating NDA’s, which tend to be quite severe in his former line of work. If nothing else, Flynn is fearless.
The Day after.
Buckle up sports fans, this game is being played on Trump Time. I’m still giving thought to the (not SotU but) Address to both Houses of Congress (OK, it was actually a prime time self congratulatory Address to in country and out viewers).
Too long, too many made for media moments but generally well done. A missed opportunity was to in comedic timing, gaze at the Left (on his right) and say: “ah c’mon, you won’t clap for the young man fighting cancer?” or “really, you don’t want to applaud the strapping HS Senior going to West Point?” say it with a smile …
Some very large players are mixing it up with the hot money crowd in the scrum today. Same ole same ole take a shot at the other guy and watch for success on capitulation. If given a shot in the nose it’s time to measure up and see who has the biggest ____ (wad of dosh to ladder). As always, watch the TNX (I’m fixated on a 3 month bar chart). The print just broke a significant low at 4.126% set 12/06/24.
In addition to a reminder that bonds are math, I’ll share a personal anecdote:
In early stages my recent occupation, we were in a lucky group. My bosses boss had juice and kept his office in house. We were a powerhouse collective with lots of elder statesmen who could lend gravitas, had seen it all. The hottest whiz bang estate strategists and even _the_ mutual fund mangers came in to speak.
There were just two main sectors, equity and debt. The stock fund managers must have bought their threads at Rodeo Drive. They had shoes, each one, that was more expensive than my briefcase. Very flash. The bond managers probably had more AUM and yet looked professorial and rumpled, often with accountant half glasses. Smartest guy in the room? The guy playing with math on his side.
Watch the TNX. The bond market is leading _every_ move. Extra credit, check the German Bund. Their spreads blew out. The bond market(s) rules(s).
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DE10Y-DE
ATL: rain, then back to snow. Soon to invert on that. We hopes.
Egor
ps – wordslinger : I still have the 1st new car from youth. It’s a very early (1st 1,000 in US) Mazda Rx7. Total stud sports car. Wish I could get in and out well.
I have a plasma torch, tractor sling, and a shop talk sunday column to fill…
I know where can get the down for the upholstery update?
we’re talking real jobs, good jobs, construction and manufacturing. the CHIPS act is good for workers and national security.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act
Trump wants to kill $52.7 billion semiconductor chips subsidy law
https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-wants-kill-527-billion-semiconductor-chips-subsidy-law-2025-03-05/
See the NASDAQ, The stock market’s function is provide liquidity and money for investment. Ditto bonds. Not the Ure’s being on the hook. Trump gets it right, but not clear spoken enough, I guess.
The S&P500 is down roughly 6.5% from it high on Feb 19th. Currently setting just above it’s 200 DMA. Well below it’s 84 & 42 DMA.., and blowing out the bottom of the Bollinger Bands.
.
Three time this week I have read that the S&P is headed for 4,200 – that is about a 27% drop from it’s current price.
All three talking-heads stated that will happen soon-ish., before Summer goes into full swing. [ Two of them blame Trump for this coming sell-off.] The third prognosticator asked an interesting question. “Is Trump trying to engineer a recession ?’ [ To what benefit? Was my answer to that. Why would you want to force the country into a recession? How would that further his agenda ? Currently – what the hell is his ‘agenda’ ? ]
At that predicted price level [ 4,200 ] it would constitute a 33 and 1/3 % drop. [ Give or take a cheeseburger, or two.] Which falls directly in-line with the average price drop in the markets after the Federal Reserve pivots. We have until the end of April for this drop to ‘fit’ within that average ‘pivot-drop’ time frame. [ .., or not.]
The numbers are saying one thing., my “Carnac the Magnificent” aggregate is saying another., and my gut feeling.., ? ., hinting at another. My downward, negative bias for the markets has not changed, even with the billions being spent on A.I. Blowing up one segment of the industrial complex, that has virtually no R.O.I. for a couple of years to come, will not hold the markets ‘up’. Those tech giants will lose tens of billions. They have no revenue for all the billions they are spending /investing.
However., a stock market sell-off has never caused a recession. It has always been the other way around. A recession has near-always caused a market sell off. And right now, we are not in a recession. [ technically speaking.]
.., and I am still not too sure on how the digital currencies will fit / fair in all of this mayhem.
.., and it all boils down to “when” !? and that my fellow passengers is the most important question of all. If you have a handle on it – let me know.
“Stay Frosty !”
A short stack of cheeseburgers on the upside move today. the Ebbing-Ure cross over the 2-day Friday was the turn starting. I will post how it continued today but it, um, pretty to be a 2 week bull sometimes. Markets never to straight to heaven or hell. The (and you note) Bollinger their way along. Faith the rally over will turn into a small move to the top of ther bollies (which would ideally be around the 42dma and when Whee! Back down for more!