Markets: Trading in an Alternate Dimension

imageIt would be so easy to become filthy rich, if only we had a time machine that could advise us in advance of what’s coming.

There have been (and still are) plenty of efforts to obtain one.  The latest “secret ingredient” being used is software, and it’s working out OK for a very few.  But time machines have their limits, and when we get glimpses of the future by using advanced technology, while the information may be pretty good, it is often not tradable.

Take this week, for example: On Tuesday, chief code-slinger Grady at our project posted this:

Predictions:  There are indications that near Christmas, news about Ebola and North America could ‘ramp up’. (WHO indicates there is still a danger of Ebola breaking out and spreading ‘World Wide’.) Ebola Vaccine research in Switzerland is halted.

The Event monitor suggests there may be an attack by ISIS or ISIL tomorrow or Thursday. There are hints that it could be directed against the USA and/or its assets.  The event monitor uses the same algorithm that, among other successes, predicted the Washington State school shooting last October.  As with all human attempts at peering into the future, sometimes the event monitor is wrong.

So how did it all work out?

Ebola:  The very next day, the Washington Post run the story that there was a lot of exposure of scientists to Ebola.  I think we count that a hit.

And about the ISIS (ISIL if you’re John Kerry) outlook?  Well, there’s the shoot-down of a Jordanian aircraft reported, with the pilot being held by ISIS.  But whether that’s real is somewhat debated since Jordan is playing an updated version of the old song by Bob Dylan “It ain’t me, babe.”

In terms of human vs. human, there was the Berkeley, MO shooting which will give the mainstream divisive media yet more opportunity to sell the leftist anti-cop side of digital anarchy.  Law enforcement, however, got ahead of the curve on this one and was super-quick rolling out videos of the scene, and as a result perhaps, much of the activity (so far) has remained peaceful.  Except for the violent parts and arrests.  But it hasn’t gone viral on any action networks designed to mass agitate.

All of which is interesting (in that the holiday worked out more or less to our linguistic expectations, but the bottom line to all the technology and reading hundreds of thousands of pages is what? 

Unfortunately, not really tradable information. 

Oh, I suppose  Jordan could have grounded flights, CDC  could have released its data earlier instead of what has the odor of “butt covering” and maybe the police in Missouri could have put a body-cam testing program in place.

But from the investor stand point (which is what we focus on around here) what really matters is that Dow is in record territory and the odds of a collapse between now and the end of trading for the week is just about zero.

Oil is edging back up a bit, the Dow is likely to tack on another 50 points today, and the S&P is almost up to the Elliott Wave minimums before a really serious decline is expected to begin.  But those targets (hold onto your hat here) range as high as 2,200 on the S&P.

Technically, it would be possible for the S&P to continue screaming upward on the magic of liquidity through May, or so.  And with it, the Dow could soar to the 20,000 level.  But that’s why we keep our Trading Model over on the  side of the house.

In the past 52-weeks, the Model has been negative only 6 times, or 5 – depending on whether you apply our technical note on “dead-banding” to the raw model output.  Applying dead-banding, the model was only negative two weeks in 2013.  It’s one thing to be run over by a train, it’s just useful to know which way it’ll be coming from.

The reason to roll through all this technical stuff is not to sell stocks (or bonds) as an investment idea.  There are plenty of ways to increase your standard of living without investing a penny…just unloading a lot of unnecessary crap in life will do marvels for most people.

But it’s the goal going forward around here (and with our colleagues at and is help us all live happier lives with more time to focus on the good stuff.

In particular, this year, we will be putting fresh eyes on becoming better minimalists 

It’s nice to know the future, of course.  So capturing dreams and changes in language is important, goes without saying. 

However it’s also important and worthy to do the things that “call to the soul” whether it’s flying off to new adventures, or building a boat…or possibly rebuilding one.  This is starting to call to me again.

All takes money, but that’s the fun of it. 

Just like “Time keeps everything from happening all at once…”  So to does an uneven distribution of money “Keep everyone from doing all the cool stuff at the same time.”

I kid you not:  Imagine how the world would distort if 1-million people skydived every day, or there was a waiting line of 6-days on the way up Mount Everest.  The lineup for DisneyWorld could begin at the Florida state border.

Sound absurd?

Perhaps.  But when comes to adventures (except of the mind and soul) there really aren’t enough to go around so we each have to become worthy in some way of the treats.  Cost reductions or income increases, pick your path.

I don’t mean little treats…the appetizer course (like new cars, those are flying off the showroom floors with zero interest year-end madness.) 

No, I mean the really good ones:  Walking a mountain like Kilimanjaro or Mt. Hood, or dropping in on a bush-pilot-sized grass strip in the wilderness.  You can do any of these on the cheap but you can’t have ALL of them if something else destroys your focus.

So we watch the future closely, looking for opportunities.  But in war, disease, and human-versus-human conflict, it’s hard to discern a worthy place to invest and still keep clean karma in the process. 

So we persevere. Not much richer, not much poorer, but we snagged a few biggies this year and that’s what matters.

Why I Pay My Taxes

Read the adventures of Christine O’Donnell, who, for a second time, is having HUGE issues with IRS.  The Agency reportedly emptied out her bank account, and then offered an OOPS!

But, reports the Washington Times, no money has been returned, yet.

I get plenty of emails telling me “You’re such a good little bitch, George, rolling over for “the Man” like you do.” 

Laugh if you will, but when an unsupervised elephant steps on a gnat, I’d just as soon not be the gnat.

I’m sure our off-shore ex-pat readers will suggest leaving the immediate vicinity of the elephant, but this is where my favorite circus is, thanks.

Whoever Hacked Was Promoting?

Now that the controversial, at least among hackers, Sony film “the Interview” has been released, it’s getting terrible reviews

As I mentioned in a Peoplenomics analysis a while back, my money is still on Anonymous for the hack.  Since if North Korea really wanted to damage the US, they might have done so by making everyone watch the film, if the bad reviews are right…

Follow This One Closely

Russian military officials have signed off on new military doctrine.

Why does it matter?

The US/West economic sanctions on Russia were mostly done so the West could deny Russia needed food and arms manufacturing capability in Ukraine, but the West would also like to subjugate the whole of Russia, too.  And what we’re going is starting to bite very deeply.

In fact, the Russian gross domestic product is likely to drop 4% this year.  And internally, there is a new round of real estate collapse and massive defaults on the horizon.

Once billed as the “worker’s paradise” people seem to be adjusting OK, but Russia is continuing efforts to build up an alternative to the Dollar reserve currency through its organizing of the BRICs countries.

As Forbes reported in a guest report from a Georgia Southern expert, the development of a Russian/BRICs development bank is threatening the US dollar hegemony.

For half a century, the West/US have been able to economically subjugate third world countries and those that resisted (Afghanistan, Vietnam, there’s a list here) ended up being classified as war zones and we all see where that’s led.

With only so much resource to go around, the BRICs countries are trying to round up some preps for themselves.  Learning from US, one way to do it is through crooked banking., 

And now that we have super powers in that arena as dance partners, we can see how the dance will eventually end…badly… with someone getting their toes stepped on.

Then it will only be a question of how much pain?  The answer could range from a diplomatic note to flash goggles event.  And so we will be curious to learn more about the new Russian military doctrine since it will likely have additional dance instructions for the West to follow.

Sort of like dancing with a partner who let’s you lead, but only while you’re holding a Glock in their back.

If you were Vlad Putin, as yourself “How much do I let my GDP and lifestyle of my people fall before I press the EMP button and end techno-laden America, land of untrustworthy bankers?”

Consider the answer carefully, as I’m sure he is doing.  In the latest move, though, we just put our “dance hands” on Cuba’s booty and they’ve e been going steady with Russia for 50-years..


With all this morning’s headlines, you may feel inclined to grab a pair of ViceGrips and give yourself a good wake-up bite.  If you don’t have any ViceGrips and you would still like to wake up a bit, look what’s going on at Amazon…

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