“Savior Joe” has not only stopped Covid in its tracks – just days prior to taking the Oath, but by the Hype-Along Headline crowd Monday, he was also bringing fresh confidence to the markets.
Typical of Financial Press deceit was this type of headline:
Record High? Isn’t that true?
Well, yeah…sort of…um…MISLEADING!!!
It’s why we turned over the leaf of logic following the 2000 Internet Bubble Implosion and decided to build our own Aggregate Index. Reason? The Truth is Out There.
Yet? Crooks on Wall St. are already whispering half-wit idiocy in the ears of the lame-ass public.
Why an Aggregate?
The ever-so-touted Dow Jones Industrial Average is 30 stocks. This is out of more than 4,000 stocks traded in the U.S. As you can (or should) be able to grasp, with a moderate (government-backed) bankroll, you could “arb up” the pricing of the Dow (futures) by selectively buying call options on just 30-stocks.
When the government is going along with (and helping) the Fat Cats unload at the top of major moves, the public is often about to get bent over. Especially when we leave the “effective lower bound” of rates and return to a “show me the money” world.
Since a POSSIBLE high of February 12 (36,365.73) our Aggregate Index closed Monday at 34,336.23. And this morning?
Based on early Futures prices, 34,845.65.
I’ll save you the Calculator Work: We’re down 4% since Feb. 12th.
Where’s the (off-screen) bleeding? Well….to round off for you… The Dow is up 1.71%. The S&P is down 1.8% and the NASDAQ? Down 8.56%.
This is the same-exact “talking out of both sides” that happened following the 2000-2003 Tech Wreck. Trillions (some figure $7 of ’em) were not even mentioned as the Dow and S&P rallied skyward. Devastation in Tech Hollow was papered-over. Empty promises of Tech ran into our Logical Limits of Hype problem, you see.
IoT hype circa 2003: Do we really need encoded food that will self-order from an online grocer? IoT sounds all so good, until you ask the hard questions. Like “Who’s gonna pay for this?” [Fortunately, we are the world’s leading producer of Dumb Consumers now…]
Like electric vehicles. They do have pollution, but you don’t see it because it’s at the generating station two counties over. Smokestacks, fracking, dead fish runs…
You sure you’re awake enough to follow? Most “wokees” aren’t. It’s much easier for weak-willed sissified narcissist’s to join a “Cause” and let some else do their heavy-thinking.
Fine, as long as you’re OK with living the Lied-To Life and you don’t mind being a moral turd.
Again – based on Futures pricing early – we were looking for a rally to carry on this morning and into perhaps late in the session.
Say, didn’t some genius tell you in a column Monday (yesterday isn’t that long ago, is it?):
“We’ve like to see an early morning low, [yep, got that] then in with enough hysteria to jam the market up more. [check: headline number tout] Then maybe a high around the close tomorrow [That’s now today, so stand-by kiddies…] since a sell-off on Consumer Inflation Wednesday could be interesting.”
Two simple facts the Financial Press doesn’t look anywhere NEAR deeply-enough at: Demand and Money Supply.
If they did, they would be screaming from the rooftops about 10-million fewer workers who can’t (even stimulus included) continuously consume as much as 10-million more workers.
They would also scream about the Fed H.6 Money Stocks being hidden from the unwashed without data export skills. It has been becoming all-too-clear that “Made Up Money” was the ONLY reason this utter pig of a market is still afloat.
Joe Moron and Janet Money-Dancer are selling “normalcy bias” hard as they can because somewhere, some bright dude in the back room has probably whispered: “F*ck this up and we fall into Global Depression, Famine, and War…”
We are confident that We the People have the brains. It’s just that living in a Representative Auction Block nation, those who should represent US are just bent on buttering their own bread.
1929 All Over Again.
Yeah…even with the futures rallying.
Even with a rally today, all the bullshit and bluster about “record markets” is political slop for the slow.
Let me give you the Maraschino Cherry:
The all-time high of Tesla was $900.40. Yesterday, the stock traded around $600. Don’t tell the guy in the slOval this, but Tesla is down a bit from records. And the transition from the “free money’s effective lower-bound” rates could be as much fun as dumping a Goldwing on a gravel-laced turn on a mountain curve.
Notwithstanding, Elon Musk may have done more than anyone in history for Preppers. But we’ll explain that tomorrow on the subscriber side.
Read the Data. Too early to be an all-out Bear – but especially a Bull, too. Nimble-Dexterous Trading. NDT. (NZT helps, lol).
Ure local pragmatist only pulled a tiny 0.588% gain out of Monday. But if you’re quick and know how things can compound, over 200-trading sessions that compounds to 13.7% per month. Or, more realistically, 2-3% because pragmatic NDT trading is tough.
Seems like hardly anyone “does the math” anymore, though. Maybe because it’s now considered racist. In defense of my (privileged, but with no pro sports opportunities, ear-marked admissions quotas, or special funding) there was no Masters in Ethnomathematics when I was being schooled.
Yep – Ure will tell all who will hear it: “Screw robotics – ethnomathemetics is our future!” But, I digress.
You will get some stock picks wrong…nearly half… which is why hair-trigger poker is such good training for market play. Dump losses instantly. But, again, I digress. (Though I’ve gotten pretty good at it…)
The word “investment” doesn’t really mean anything when the book value of Bitcoins is zero, does it?
It’s OK…dollars are quickly catching-down with ’em.
BTC is at $54.137 each this morning. Depravity survived the night.
A better indicator of manias would be hard to find. Tulips and South Seas Company shares, but only perhaps.
Say, speaking of Bit parts:
Another “Urban Got There Early”
Logic must be an incredibly elusive element: finest of rarium and unobtanium.
Yet, there it was: Bitcoin mining eats more power than many small countries. We harped. Cajoled. Preached the Gospel of Earth Stewardship. To empty ear spaces and the media silence.
Well, hallelujah brothers and sisters! Let me hear you put your hands-together for the break-away ACTUAL news operation that still exists inside the NY Times: “Bitcoin’s Climate Change Impact Is Under Scrutiny”
Kudos to the Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin for his quote from Bill Gates:
“Bitcoin uses more electricity per transaction than any other method known to mankind, and so it’s not a great climate thing.”
No shit. ‘mazing. Who gets the bill, Bill? Cryptos are Senseless Immoral Planet Killers’ in an already senseless world suffering from digital mob rule. Worth a trillion, now, though. (To the ethically-challenged.)
We will say it again: If you ever owned a Bitcoin, you took part in raping the the Planet.
You proud of that?
(We bought solar panels with our money, instead.)
Watching the Hype Machine
Why, here’s a Motley Fool syndicated story: “Young Americans Plan to Invest Stimulus Checks in Stocks.”
You really gotta look up the difference between “Investments” and “guillotines.”
Much more useful – a NASDAQ from MF story: “Warren Buffett Just Bought These 3 High-Yield Dividend Stocks. Should You?”
Why, almost makes stocks respectable-like. Last surge as BTC profits roll in to wash ’em up a bit?
Sit-Rep and debrief:
For the incurable sheep in ewe, try “Buckingham Palace’s reaction in focus after Harry and Meghan’s bombshell interview.”
Either climate change is back, or Weather Averages Over Time. (But, God, don’t let George go on being factual, indignant and self-righteous so much…) As: “National weather forecast: Record high temperatures possible in parts of US.
Windows what’er’wall? “Victims of Microsoft hack scramble to plug security holes.”
Another rich one from CNN: “US lawmakers want more research on pandemic’s mental health toll.” Like we need to find out how f/u and stupid we are? Help me here…ain’t it, like…obvious?
Elaine Got Fired
From a slow start out of the gate on hip surgery recovery, we passed something of a milestone Monday as Elaine’s P.T. guy said “Don’t come back till your weight restrictions are off…”
The adventures of Hip #1 included a slight crack of her femur, leading to banding and a 50% weight reduction precaution. But, she was doing everything the P.T. fellow wanted – in good form – and with very little (almost no) pain.
We had been looking at a 2-times a week PT regimen from now till almost the end of the month. Sweet. Time opens up…
There was a downside (always is in Life in the zoom out, since it’s a closed system and balance is required).
You see, going to town for PT offered something of an adventure for us. A drive-through meal. So, last night’s was through KFC. (Done with that for another year – some things are almost like body clock functions: “Once a year eat this….” Clarifies memories and past decisions.)
We still hadn’t made it back to WhatABurger – Elaine’s appetite seems boosted by a BBQ/bacon cheese burger with everything and a large load of fries. With no PT, no burgers. See how balance rolls around?
Seriously: Her rate of recovery seems helped-along by following her cravings. Not much research on that, but we have three research opportunities to rent-out daily. I think medical-food links are among the most opportunity-rich areas of personal decision-making and accountability.
“Healthy wife costs you some burgers, Ure” Odd message from Universe, but is this how enlightenment comes about?
Leftover clam linguini again for moi and then to work on the Elon Musk/Prepping story for tomorrow…
Write when you get rich,