We are blessed that we have not had to issue the dreaded “Assume the crash position found on the card in the seat pocket in front of you…” advise, yet. But it’s getting closer.
A few short headlines before an incredibly serious column today:
- Russia sends written response to U.S. as Ukraine negotiations continue.
- Odds on a Biden impeachment drive are rising in our estimate. As NYT Sues State for Officials’ Emails Mentioning Hunter Biden. The Laptop from Hell that just keeps giving.
- We may not have Taiwan much longer. Legendary investor George Soros says China’s real-estate crisis is a major threat to Xi Jinping’s grip on power. Leaders in trouble historically start wars to seize power. Taiwan would fit the mold.
- MSM makes it big of Book banning in Texas schools: Titles are pulled off library shelves in record numbers. Here in Texas, people I’ve talked to say its about taking “gender marketing” materials off the shelf. EDucation not SEXucation.
- And remember my constant harping that we’re not at the same number of people working since several years ago? Well, here’s another feller who has noticed: Warren Buffett Grew Berkshire Workforce by 3%, Still Below 2017 Levels.
Oh, and market futures are flat for reasons that will become clear in a chart as we roll along…
How to Tell the Future
Serious up: This morning, the waft of war “eau d’ ouch” may be seen in the following developments.
- One of our readers notes that Russia chairs the UN Security Council this month. For that reason alone, no more UNSC hustling of eyeballs and ear lobes by the MSM till March is possible.
- Another’s heard the social whisper for Russians to be out of NATO countries by Feb. 5.
- Around Ukraine, it’s now cooling and UKRInform.net offers two insights of use: Donbas update: Invaders breach truce twice over past day, Jan 31 and Number of Ukrainian military servicemen to increase by 100,000.
- Toss in the Russian landing craft expected to be through Istanbul today or tomorrow (at 18 knots cruising speed from Gibraltar last week)…
…and the whole table is set for an ugly war. Russia’s even moved up blood supplies near the front, reports have it. So, all that’s missing is NATO’s version of Napoleron (as Nostradamus spelled it) and a white horse to him to sit on.
(Bill and Ted‘s with Napoleon porking a banana split to “Ziggy-Piggy” at the ice cream shop rolls across the cerebral cortex viewer. I gotta swear-off or change brands…)
Silly Vanilly and the Kabul Klutz have the narrative firmly in hand. Sorta.
3-Minute Chart Class
“Seatbacks and Tray Tables”
Maybe Covid has kept you from “moving about the country freely” as one airline positioning statement had it, but there are two times when the FA’s (flight attendants) tell you to put your seat backs up: Regularly when a landing is imminent. The other when a crash is at hand.
A huff on the whiteboard marker while I explain.
Here is the Big Picture, Short Term, USA that we update for subscribers on the Peoplenomics side of the house:
Let’s take a tour of this thing and see what it’s [potentially] warning us of:
The Big Black Numbers: From November 8, the US stock market has been in high-vacuum suck mode. You notice headlines like Markets post worst month since 2020, as recovery slows and rate hike worries rise – business live | Guardian making the rounds. True, it’s hysterical for reporting “worst since 2020” is what, a year? Unfortunately, for a thinking person, it will be remembered the decline of 7% came along with a 25% increase in the Monetary Base reported by the Fed. (pauses to huff marker again)
Elliott Big Count: Sure, looks like (referring to big black numbers) 1 down, 2 up, and we MAY still be in the larger (black number) 3 down.
The Nature of 3s: Since we are arguably in a major down trend (covid, yada, Pelosi-Schemer-Bidet Budget Disaster (PSBBD), yada, yada..) We’re thinking the 3 ought to be five waves down.
Small Yellow Numbers: OK, if you’re looking for five-waves down, then as the small yellow numbers show, we’ve done 1 down, 2 up, 3 down, and we are likely in (or completing) a 4 up. The expectation I’ve got is for a five down which could literally collapse any old time.
Gray Outlined Boxes: I use these in order to skip completely the Elliott Wave numbering protocol. Earlier reference to the cerebral cortex view port settings is suggested. These boxes notice the passing of the market through the top of the (larger) Wave 3 (falling) trend line. (huff)
Bottom Right Declining Trend Line: IF we’re not completely delusional, the market shortly will organize a Wave 3 (5) decline to complete the series as Russia goes armed tourista in Eastern Europe and the nuke dance begins.
Now, let’s think about this: If the market turns down today or tomorrow when people realize Vlad ain’t playing around? Then we have a decline larger than the 1 down box ahead. If we have an ugly (complex 4) then we will go down slower, but lower to finish.
Charts Tell Future?
Maybe better than Astrology with an exceptional figure or two (like the now-retired Arch Crawford of The Crawford Perspectives).
I will go into this in Peoplenomics more tomorrow, but when you understand Elliott, how waves “nest” and how the future has a numerical basis (which involves Luck – main topic on PN tomorrow) THEN you can see a case where Biggest Scale Wave 1 down will be from Nov. 8, 2021 market high down until we have closure of this wave’s completion. OR, we have screamed into a final larger 5 on the Bullish side.
IF we don’t break higher, November to whenever a line holds in Ukraine becomes Wave 1 down. The Nostradamus (False Peace) my friend G.A. Stu Stewart writes about over at “The Age of Desolation” website MIGHT (statistically somewhere over zero) be envisioned as the Big Scale Wave 2. Then China takes Taiwan later in the year and we get Wave 3 down, which should be a Mutha-Giant.
Still, world doesn’t blow there (because the numbers don’t work, because the US is still intact and no world-ending nuke-biowar shows up yet).
The nesting is clear when you plug in the Ukraine as Ultra-Wave 1 down. The False Peace would be Ultra-Wave 2 up. We know the Ukraine down wave should be around 10%.
This leaves Ultra-Wave 3 down (*in the nested scheme of Future) looking like the fighting over Taiwan and as the USA heads for food shortages and urban warfare when the chips are down.
In my consigliere’s cycle work, war 2023-2025 is expected. Which means that after the US market drops a projected 27% (or more) from losing Taiwan in this model:
(Ideally the math says a 26% decline in total markets)
Follow to the Future
Here’s where we’ve gone in this short expository:
- Ultra-Wave 1 down: Ukraine crisis.
- Ultra-Wave 2 up: Waiting for China to move, happy talk.
- Ultra-Wave 3 down: Loss of Taiwan
- Ultra-Wave 4 up: Rally on good news from semi’s after losing Taiwan chips. China wants us intact for food production downstream.
- Ultra 5 Down: This is where WW-III is inserted.
But there’s one more Elliott problem implied here: There’s another even LARGER sequence which we’ll call the Mega-Wave sequence but more for the first-class passengers on Peoplenomics tomorrow.
For now, ears open for the seat backs and tray tables spiel.
A Further Prediction Note
Looking at the future in a meaningful way is an avocation wrought with risk.
As a generalist stooge, I will tell you that in my thought processes, while technologies like predictive linguistics no doubt have value, their susceptibility to outside influence (namely by lying-scum socialist media platforms) that is likely to result in a sub-optimal future forecast.
There are plenty of “stock chart” techniques, including Elliott, channels, and certain technical flags that can tell market futures, as well.
Thing is, forecast accuracy improvement navigating the Future doesn’t stop there, either. Sure, while nested logical trading forecasts around Elliott may be financially useful, it’s also likely that prophetic dream work (which I rolled out as the https://nationaldreamcenter.com site in 2008, since being spun-off to Lt. Col. rtd. (And multiply degreed) Chris McCleary who ably keeps it rolling forward and where new dreams are posted daily…)
Then there’s Nostradamus’ work on Stu’s site: Here’s a FOURTH way of “seeing future” as seen from an ancient view.
Speaking of oldies: John of Patmos did pretty well in his book about future, too. Perhaps you’ve heard of it? Revelations?
What about all the work Gray put in to Nostracodeus – where we tore apart web content seeking “indicator words of future tense?” By tracking action verbs like “next week” and cross-tabbing to subject like “Ukraine”, we can begin to set in the corner posts for Ukraine’s most likely statistical future.
Remote-viewing? Above our pay grade.
Now we’re up to what?
- Predictive linguistics (High, Google, Recorded Future, etc.)
- Market trend-nesting (oddly, a Peoplenomics subject area).
- Predictive and prophetic dreams: NationalDreamCenter.com
- Nostradamus and his oil pot over on Stu’s site.
- John of Patos: Bible, Revelations.
- Word Frequency Analysis: (Ure and Grady, Nostracodeus project).
- We’ll skip all the other technologies your tax dollars have funded, like remote viewing and that whole genre of budget dust.
Each of the specialties (in Future) has its own “vertical market” guru.
It has been my insight/intuition since 2014 or whenever, that a singular approach to Futuring includes the software engineering risk of a “single point of failure.” Which is what’s happening on social in general and now even the short-message systems are compromised knowing that linguistic gillnetters are fishing twits on the web.
Along the way, we’ve learned a lot about ourselves. Goes back to the (generalized) business problem of Frederick Winslow Taylor. Who – as father of time and motion studies) – was always seeking the “one best way”.
Geniuses behind individual technologies often believe they have that one best way and that only their organization (or viewpoint) is on the “right path.”
An aging, ADHD, lazy, generalist like me is troubled by all this: Sure, technology offers several computer-based analysis tracks, but what of Aggregation? That might point more reliably to an accurate future view because of the WMI. You see, in the Many Worlds’ Interpretation of quantum mechanics, there’s the Schrodinger’s Cat / Observer-State reality.
The Cat’s existence is determined by what the Observer expects.
If more than one Observer? Majority vote rules! The Future is both democratic but it’s a kind of democracy driven by chance, luck, and Gaussian distributions.
Look at Future Creates It
And in that one tasty morsel of physics lies the most profound mindset change humans have ever faced. Observer-States not only enables perception of the Future as some level; it also explains how Prayer works, witchery too, and how Intent is some terribly important in martial arts. Covens are just groupings for more votes. You following this?
Future as a singular technology or an Aggregate? You know where I am on this: Generalists like to aggregate knowing it’s like sighting-in an AK-47. Things just line up.
It’s also like driving around Mt. Rainer in Washington – the socialist state. Looks a bit different from view-to-view. And totally like a different rock pile when you compare the views near Enumclaw with the views at Paradise…
Analyzing the future – taking the best stab at it – I continue to believe should be a widespread public endeavor. Not everyone agrees.
The future was – and will continue to be – the ultimate intellectual high ground. Fortunately, I suppose, egos and individual genius will save us a while longer.
But even this incremental progress may fall within our powers of estimation. Since Randomness as tracked by the Princeton EGGS project can represent a kind of “noisy signal generator” for comparison. Then each of the future-oriented technologies can be benchmarked. Even better would be Aggregated Future.
Our Manipulated Future
For now, most humans have no idea how this Big Manipulation really works.
The short version is you are programmed by events (and pseudo-news) around you. This sets an expectation of the Future.
Which dutifully comes along, because statistically under the Cat and MWI, it must. We all vote, the future appears. Your belief is your vote.
Not sure how we got into this, except to say that the Manipulation du jour ought to feature holding Wave 3 (4) which could be entertaining.
People talk “democracy and peace” all the time. Not realizing that each time we are massaged (and messaged) into becoming “future partisans” we cast our global vote for a Future that may not benefit all.
Humans are progressing slowly in this direction; the Internet is an aspect of Jungian psychology. We have suddenly, over the past century, barely begun to see it:
That we can make this Cat live. Or not.
Nested Elliott waves, some predictive analysis, dreams, John of Patmos, Nostradamus, and WFA argue the Cat is already dead.
We just don’t know it, yet.
Write when you get rich and call yourself from the future,