To set the mood for today’s look at what’s ahead for the economy, we recommend a 2-minute warm-up exercise consisting of your choice of:
- Train Wreck compilation 1
- Train Wreck compilation 2
- Track Wreck compilation 3
- Train Wreck compilation 4
- Or, if you have 17-minutes, the 2010-2020 Train Wreck compilation…
This last one is especially good if you’re confused by government policy, the Fed, or the caliber of people running for the What House?
Seriously – Some Data
Two numbers to roll around today: The first being the PPI – Producer Price Index. Just out from Labor:
“The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in July and fell 0.2 percent in June. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index declined 0.2 percent for the 12 months ended in August.
In August, the rise in prices for final demand was led by a 0.5-percent increase in the index for
final demand services. Prices for final demand goods also advanced, inching up 0.1 percent.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in August, the same as in both July and June. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3 percent.”
The whiz-bang of this report is it can give hints as to “inflation in the pipeline.”
Just what the hell the “pipeline” looks like, however, is a matter of much debate. Because thanks to CV-19 (which will hit 28-million cases worldwide in the next day or three) demand destruction has been going on at levels not seen since the 1930’s.
We’ve been screaming about this (Consumer Super-Saturday, useless shit-piling-up) for several years. Yet despite the in-your-face-data, De Nile ain’t a place in Egypt.
Latest adds: More young adults in the U.S. live with their parents than at any time since the Great Depression from CBS and the Mercury News version at Coronavirus: Share of young adults living with parents higher now than Great Depression, Pew poll finds.
It’s OK, you can tell yourself all day “This isn’t a train wreck – this is just extended parenting!” (De Nile).
Let’s Talk Lost Jobs
As long as we’re in the Depression groove – and people’s jobs in fast food have been disappearing, how about some reassurance (because I’m such a flaming optimist): These restaurants made it out of the Great Depression but couldn’t weather coronavirus.
Which is mentioned (big into mood-setting aren’t we?) this morning’s big-whoop from Labor on weekly unemployment claims…
“In the week ending September 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 884,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 3,000 from 881,000 to 884,000. The 4week moving average was 970,750, a decrease of 21,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 991,750 to 992,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 9.2 percent for the week ending August 29, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 29 was 13,385,000, an increase of 93,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 38,000 from 13,254,000 to 13,292,000. The 4-week moving average was 13,982,000, a decrease of 523,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 9,500 from 14,496,250 to 14,505,750.
CPI Tomorrow is Critical
Tomorrow morning, we’ll be “edge of seats” when the CPI report comes out. Because we’re getting into the “matters very much” window for those of us (geezers and gleezer-pleasers) who are on the Social Security dole for the last few miles of life. The issue is the annual COLA – or Cost of Living Adjustment.
According to Social Security, here’s how the numbers get crunched:
The Social Security Act specifies a formula for determining each COLA. According to the formula, COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). CPI-Ws are calculated on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the CPI-W from the average for the third quarter of the current year to the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective. If there is an increase, it must be rounded to the nearest tenth of one percent. If there is no increase, or if the rounded increase is zero, there is no COLA for the year.
Which gets us to looking at this month very closely — because there’s only one more number after this (September’s) which will come out this time next month.
Is it an honest number? Well…long discussion here: I have yet to live a year where my actual expenses were anywhere near the “Offishul” CPI. You have to believe in heuristic adjustments (substitute sirloin for filet mignon, anyone?) – which we don’t.
It’s a long-term statistical snow-job that no one talks much about because – like the use of leeches in the Middle Ages, the bleed-out is slow. Since we’re nearly immortals, the transition from salads and filets to mac & cheese will take 14.3 years… But WTF… may not even be a country by then…
Reliving D-1: “Hipsteaders”
Oh, God…not another word hustle, please. Yet here we are, reading about how CV-19 has turned us into an evolving group of “hipsteaders.” AYFSM? Prepper was too self-explanatory, or what?
Yep – already the web site (dotcom) domain has been snagged. Almost fished the .org for it, but go be a domain squatter if you want.
Interesting side note here: I wonder if there’s any sense of the future that could be gleaned from looking at domain names being issued. (Most are domain squatters, though.) For example, we will shortly add the domain “PrintableFuture.org” to our Ultra-Make 3D printing and design hobby site. <More on this for Peoplenomics subscribers this coming weekend.>
All Fired Up
California wildfires growing bigger, moving faster than ever. Be surprised. Looks like the firefighter/emt wunderkind will be on the White River fire in Oregon into next week.
Does the WaPo Hate Trump?
Evidence? So – now we are seeing how those “poor little darlings – peaceful protesters in Oregon – who in reality have burned buildings, blinded law enforcement, beaten passersby – being pimped out in the lefty apologist Washington Post. See “Swept up in the federal responseto Portland protests: ‘I didn’t know if I was going to be seen again’ (as) Videos obtained by The Washington Post show agents’ tactics during Trump operation…”
Laughably – a splash screen “Support Journalism When It Matters Most – Get One Year for $29″ pops up, too. It wasn ‘t a “Trump operation” – it was a Dept. of Justice operation. But hey! Never lose a chance for a cheap shot, huh?
Meantime, we wonder why the WaPo story Tractor-trailer crashed on Beltway in Maryland failed tp blame Trump for the accident? Ov ersight – just sure of it.
Racial Hot Buttons
Did you see this little gem on why the Media Ignores BLM’s Terrorist and Communist Inspirations? Yep. Worth a look.
17 Ure’s died in the Union Army fighting the Civil War for the North. Dying to win what? Black rights and freedoms. The way I figure it, our family is on the “prepaid reparations plan.” We looked it up at the Civil War Museum (all in a computer system – very cool) over in Vickburg, MS. a few years back.
Notwithstanding here we go with more craziness: Assistant principal under fire for screaming ‘F*ck the police’ at BLM protest. Where’s the McCarthy hearings when they might actually do some good? Can you explain something for me? Why are people like these educating our children?
In Linux: $ rm idiots [enter]
Global Strategic Picture
\Let’s see: Contested election in just 54-days. Then riots, demonstrations, mass insanity, legal challenges, press to toss out the Electoral College, then Depression and…oh year – War with China.
Note from .mil affairs contributor warhammer updates this part of the Big Slide:
Much like Hitler’s obsession with the Czech Sudetenland, Chinese ‘President for Life’ Xi covets Taiwan as the next jewel in his divine legacy of historic immortality.
Watch these areas closely – the order in which they fall or become economic and/or military vassals to Xi may vary:
- – S. China Sea (Paracel and Spratley Islands)
- – Taiwan
- – Cambodia
- – Indian Ocean deep port capable islands
- – S. Korea
As China’s power and reach in the area expands and America’s wanes, Japan also has reason for concern.”
Of course so does America. Want to place any bets on who will control the internet via backdoors in chips when we get into the thick of it. Sheesh – Xish!
Got plans for something besides digital silly-dough?
Write when you get rich,