“The Wall” is Trump’s “Hooverville” as we figure it.
So, before we get into the Consumer Price report, the on-going government shutdown and the like, a bit of future modeling is in order. Along with a grand lesson in management.
The lesson is simple – taught to me when I was running my first multi-million dollar P&L. My mentor made it very clear: “No surprises, George. The first rule of management is it’s our job to think EVERYTHING through in advance. No surprises…” (Thanks, Brock!)
How does this apply to the Border Impasse (notice how we are a country that can get illegals across our borders, but we can’t get a bill through Congress?)?
Simple: President Trump knows that people and the stock market don’t handle surprises well, either.
Which is why astute politicians “watch the clock.”
Something a young cub reporter learned back in his first year “on the beat” at city hall. Asked, one of the then Seattle mayor’s staff laid it out simply: “George, the Post Intelligencer is the morning paper, so we try to hold some stories for afternoon – which give them time to get the stock on the morning front page. Other times, since the Seattle Times is the afternoon paper, we hold 9:30 or 10 am press conferences, so it will make their afternoon front page….”
It works a bit differently at the national level. Since most of the Big Influence papers hit the street in the early morning, afternoon events tend to give them something to write about. The morning press conferences favored the television networks. ‘
The process was diluted as the TV industry transitioned from actual film (B-roll and stand-ups, remember ’em?) to the ENG (electronic news gathering) chains. Why, television before ENG was positively boring in comparison to live reporter gaffes caught on YouTube these days. But I digress…I’ll save the “Intro to Old School Journalism” for another time.
Point is, though, that Donald Trump announcing something like a National Emergency to deal with the border will be a big, ugly, disruptive deal.
First, we will likely see “spontaneous” demonstrations by open border supporters. And then, there will be blustering, braggadocio and bullshit-deluxe out of congressoids. Oh, and with uncertainty how this all works out, the stock market could peel off a thousand, or more points.
Which is why we would expect the presidential of a National Emergency to take place when the markets are closed so as to leave plenty of time for the idea to settle in.
Already, though, we can see the tumblers falling as that potential future is unlocking. The headlines that reveal it?
- “Trump administration eyes disaster money to fund border wall“
- “Trump administration lays groundwork to declare national emergency to build wall.“
- And USA Today is running an “Exclusive: Pentagon prepares options to build border wall as Trump weighs emergency declaration“
We’ll toss in one more data point to consider: The market here in the US could be at a critical juncture this weekend because one of our views of a particular oscillator when held up to our Aggregate Index for the past six-months, or so, looks like this:
The very last view on the right is based on futures pricing as of early this morning. But the dashed line is our Aggregate Index and the blue line is the particular oscillator we’ve invented.
By the way, our Peoplenomics.com subscribers will be able to download the spreadsheet “Small Trader Power Tool” when we get the Saturday edition published. And yes, this is one of the charts included. The idea being that subscribers should be able to clone our (odd) view of markets on their own to see things evolving based on their own inputs. No need to wait for a Saturday of Wednesday report. It will be available on the Master Index page where things like out Elliott wave projecting spreadsheet and some other goodies (plus over a thousand back issues) are located. Yes, you need to be Excel competent to use it. Grownups, remember?
Back to point? If you listen carefully right now, you can hear the tumblers falling unlocking the “possible future” while headlines tell us “Trump closer to declaring emergency; 800,000 won’t get paid,”
Such a grand cottage industry has Trump-hating become, that we would be surprised if there was no violence and demonstrations shortly after such a move.
Markets don’t like surprises, either. So, after 4 PM today, then?
Consumer Prices Fall
Oh-oh…deflation is it? Just out from the Labor Dept – which offers the laborious details here:
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The seasonally adjusted decline in the all items index was caused by a sharp decrease in the gasoline index, which fell 7.5 percent in December. This decline more than offset increases in several indexes including shelter, food, and other energy components. The energy index fell 3.5 percent, as the gasoline and fuel oil indexes fell, but the indexes for natural gas and for electricity
increased. The food index increased 0.4 percent in December.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in December, the same increase as in October and November. Along with the index for shelter, the indexes for recreation, medical care, and household furnishings and operations all increased in December, while the indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance all declined.
We need to be very price in our thinking about this stuff: The Decline was in the month-on-month results. On a whole-year, 12 months basis, the consumer prices overall are up 1.9 percent.
An “Amen” for “The Rock”
In the UK’s Daily Star, there’s a dandy read in their “EXCLUSIVE: The Rock slams snowflakes as ‘looking for reasons to be offended’.”
Mix equal parts of The Rock’s philosophy and the David Goggins’ book “Can’t Hurt Me: Master Your Mind and Defy the Odds,” and you have a whole recovery and wellness program for today’s losers and selfaphiles.
Unfortunately, the majority of inmates in this planetentiary are mostly lazy and what these (actual role models) are talking about require sweat on the outside as well as between the ears. So, while we’d like to see such thinking become more widespread, we’re not, oh, you know…holding our breath.
Reduced Instruction Set News
We figure you’re bright enough to figure out just from a few words how other “news” and “infotainment” is spilling into the living rooms of America: RISN we call it. Kinda like News Koans but easier to index.
In case you hadn’t noticed, because I have been compressing half a dozen large spreadsheets of many megs each into a single bite-sized for Peoplenomics subscribers, eliminating the fluff has been high on my agenda.
Hence, today’s whole “waiting…border…declaration” and other mental shorthand.
Even a story like Reuters “Exclusive: China to set lower GDP growth target of 6-6.5 percent in 2019 – sources” reduces to “China GDP 6-6.5%” nicely.
Long-time reader Hank of Hawaii sent me a Qualitative Potentiation (QP) device to try which I’m really looking forward to. Details are on the Peoplenomics site under September 19, 2018: Q-P Fields (Qualitative Potentiation) – a Pending Physics Breakthrough?
The idea – for non-subscribers – is that it may be possible to emphasize certain modes of thought by potentiating certain frequencies.
If you’re a ham radio operator and have used a “Q-Multiplier” you’ll have the general idea. If not, here are some resources so you can see what a Q-Multiplier is and how it works.
Q-Multipliers can either notch or boost a frequency…and while they are used in the radio spectrum, I figure there’s possibly something to be learned about increasing the Q- of extremely low frequencies, such as those the human brain employs.
We may (or may not) say much more about this. But that’s one of the many projects here at Old Man Labs.
Tomorrow on UrbanSurvival, Ure’s Digital Cosmology will be “flipped out” so to speak..
God have a Friday and get back to us…