“I just vahnt to suck your vahllet!” Yes, the all-American horror movie is back and playing the lead is Wall Street. Likely to play through Halloween, when the democrat-driven Election Hysteria promises to be the next block-buster at failing media does the only trick it knows: Crisis-Rolling.
Before we lay out two interesting “Jobs” stories, though, a momentary reflection on?
Ghosts of Data Past
At the close Wednesday, I swore off doing any market play-by-play. But, if you missed it, our calls for the Wednesday session were spot-on. I don’t plan to do that any more, since I don’t make any money on it. Less work to leave my trading notes on the desk.
The exercise may have been useful to people who can’t figure out what a simpleton in the woods could possibly know about trading “modern stocks.” No much, as it turns out.
Let’s roll out the white-board and huff on the dry-erase markers for a moment. (Ahhh…much better, thank you!)
Consider the market position at the close yesterday versus the all-time highs back on February 19th of this year: See where the growth has been:
Which screams what, exactly?
First, is the Blue Chips have been given the blues. You just can’t have 9 percent fewer people working and not notice some consumer discretionary going “Poof!” Ditto for the S&P 500, but a smaller “poof” (a “puff” maybe?) because there is more tech in the mix.
But the screaming winner was? FAANGS ruled! When the Fed decided to shovel money into this (turd of a) market, it seems to have landed mostly in the tech sector where Americans are still captivated by Harlequin Romances of EBITDA earnings. Which is really remarkable, when you think about it: How deep was the crater from the Internet Bubble bottom (2000-2003)? $5 to $7-trillion? And yet, high hype growth stories are still in vogue.
It’s like we haven’t learned a thing…which, come to think of it is more likely true than we’d like to believe. Meantime, either Tech’s on Crack or the Dow is oversold. We’ll take the drugs and curtain #3.
Trend channels (*Raff), Elliott (R.N.) and other technical concepts aren’t particularly hard to grasp.
Until a short while back (where “e” peaked) we had been in a nice rising market. Not that it was real – since the Fed has made up 30-35% more paper in this period – by what matters is “real” or not, the profits spend the same.
That was the rising trend channel there on the left. Which then broke, resulting in a downward trend channel in red. so, until we break convincingly above that red declining trend resistance, we have our bear suit on.
Bears think they can count in this Circus, so they figured we did a wave 1 down, a 2 up and we COULD be in a Wave 3 decline. And that means that Wednesday MIGHT have been 3(iii) down and a little pause in here for a 3(iii)[b] could be constructive – for the Bears. Or is that over, already? We shall see…
If we get a small bounce today? Well, let’s see what happens…. Ure’s still expecting S&P 3,000 before election day. (Which we will rename as Crisis Day with all the hype going around…)
The Weekly Jobs Report
What might result in a tick up in the market today would be a decent jobs report. So without further delay:
“In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 870,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 6,000 from 860,000 to 866,000. The 4-week moving average was 878,250, a decrease of 35,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,500 from 912,000 to 913,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.6 percent for the week ending September 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 8.6 to 8.7 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 12 was 12,580,000, a decrease of 167,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 119,000 from 12,628,000 to 12,747,000. The 4-week moving average was 13,040,750, a decrease of 478,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 29,750 from 13,489,000 to 13,518,750.”
Sheesh – enough revisions to give me a headache… The next speed bump on the Financial Freeway to Hell will be the Fed H.6
Looney Money Stock report too late except for the after-hours session. Which is where we might…er….let’s keep a few cats in the bag.
Headlines around the job report go to the idea “Jobs continue to struggle” when in fact, jobs are doing just what they should do. What’s REALLY in trouble is excessive consumption…notice how no one mentions this?
Anyways. the Durable Goods tomorrow seems likely to be a reveal on that.
Jobs, Trump & Media Hysteria, II
Hysteria’s contagious, in case you hadn’t noticed.
A short discourse (after another huff on the marker, thank you) about how the Internet elites are playing “Hide the Sausage and Going After Trump.” As you’ll see, this involves a different kind of “jobs.”
We begin the tale by asking Google “Who owns The Atlantic?”
Result #1? The pointer is to David G. Bradley’s Wikipedia entry. Which is absolutely wrong and misleading because if you read far enough into it, you find deep in the article several sections in:
“On 28 July 2017, Bradley sold his majority ownership of The Atlantic to Emerson Collective, which is an organization owned by multi-billionaire investor and philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs (the widow of former Apple Inc. chairman and CEO Steve Jobs), but with Bradley retaining a minority ownership share.”
And yes, she is a democrat. In fact, she is a very, very BIG democrat as we see in the OpenSecrets.org website list of her largess over here. Come to think of it, the Emerson Collective fit in the high roller column, too – tossing in at least a couple of million to various liberal causes.
I mention this because her publication (The Atlantic) is the source of much left-leaning hyperbole which lately has been raising the question of whether Donald Trump will leave office IF defeated by the Biden-Harris ticket.
Mostly, I mention this for Ure’s daughter #2 – who wondered how crazy it is going to get. I told her basically what I’m telling you: “Everything’s (still) a Business Model.”
Yes, taking over the government is a business model. With this kind of big money sloshing around (and the republicans aren’t poor, either) we have to think voting is not quite what it’s made out to be in
the brainwashing centers schools.
Ure’s point is when you read the recently far-more left-leaning anti-Trump stories out of The Atlantic, you can do some homework and follow the money. Because, looks to us like The Atlantic has become really focused on Donald Dumping:
- The Election That Could Break America
- Trump Is a Secessionist From the Top
- How Trump Masks His Incoherence
- The Huge Snag in Trump’s Reelection Pitch
- …literally dozens of other articles….fear mongering flavor to many…“Break America?” Oh, please…
This may reveal a business opportunity, though: Why doesn’t someone just come out with Trump Hate Monthly? Hell, I might take Curtain #2 and launch The Jerk Joe Monthly… (and spearhead serial impeachment drives, lol.)
We don’t have elections in America – who are you kidding? It’s all about persuasion blocks and money. Thus, it would make more sense to just put elective positions up on eBay and name the high bidders on the fly. That way we’d at least be able to adjust our wallet flows according to the bidders bent.
Here’s something absolutely hysterical to me: Why in God’s name would a conservative talk show host like Rush Limbaugh be such an Apple fan? Am I the only one who looks at where the money flows eventually?
In presidential elections, you vote once every four years (even after death in some cases). But Ure enjoys the pleasure of daily voting. Linux, Android…solar panels, living on his tree farm. You following this, right? The walk and the talk are in modest alignment…
I’m still not sure why that other Texas environmentalist never made a big deal about his very eco-friendly home over in Crawford, but maybe there are laws to political dances that I’m not on the distro for…
After much discussion about how “Uncle Ben’s Rice” was somehow racist, Adweek note popped in yesterday that it’s going to be “Ben’s Original” henceforth.
Affinity group marketing is an odd thing and we’re beating a pathat to insanity. We look at the Mars Foods move with some skepticism, too. Consumers (based on how they vote) are a pretty stupid lot. Amazon must know this because they sell black rice AND white rice. And what is now (vanilla?) Ben’s.
As gender insanity spreads to the groxcery aisles, we look for the predictable appearance of gay rice and straight rice. Women’s rice and men’s rice will follow and ad budgets will continue growing…
Speaking of gender, did you see Forbes “Gender Recognition Act: 6 Things We’ve Learnt From The Consultation Results?”
And one more: “The U.K. Government Has Finally Responded on Gender Recognition for Trans People. LGBT Groups Say It Is ‘Lackluster’” But this leaves us wondering “Do you want equality of legislated “Specialness?” Sheesh. Sounds like the latter to me. Can we PLEASE get back to equal meaning something radical…like equal?
Here’s a ground-floor business to get in on: Airport Kennel Operations.
Came to me in a flash as I read how “Dogs that are trained to sniff out the coronavirus are being deployed at Helsinki Airport.”
The digital brain began to scream: “How many dogs do we need in airports?” I’m allergic to all but a few breeds like SCWT’s, poodles and such…so air travel is becoming riskier all the time.
- We had regular police dogs
- Then Bomb Dogs
- And Drug Dogs
- And now…remarkably…CV-19 dogs.
I’m telling you, we can take the remnants of our 24-different bathrooms plumbing company (one for each gender here lately) and flip it into an airport kennel. Even more revenue if we can have people bring their pooches to the counter at check-in….
“I have two bags and a Labradoodle to check in…”
Sick, Just Sick
(No helping me now…)
CBS reporting CDC director warns 90% of U.S. population susceptible to COVID-19. They don’t give any clues how to get into the 10%, though, so onto the useless stack.
Then, thumbing through the “sick” stories…
“Michelle Obama Jokes Her Daughters Have Gotten ‘Sick’ of Her and Barack Obama During Quarantine.” Didn’t take a quarantine for us to get there…
And your tax dollars at work: The US Military’s Latest Wearables Can Detect Illness Two Days Before You Get Sick. Not on Amazon, yet… but fashion – or what passes as it – is sick already, anyway.
Off to wait for whatever… The big Event at the ranch today is it’s Garbage Day. Whee!
Write when you get rich,