You may not be aware of the aeronautical term FIKT. It’s pronounced “FICK-tee” when you talk to NTSB or state aircraft accident investigators. It stands for Flight Into Known Terrain.
Given UrbanSurvival is about long wave economics, where we periodically replay grand waves of euphoria and depression, talking about crashing makes a good bit of sense this week as we haul out our comparison of 1920-19299 and 2009 through this year. To us the rhyming is at least very-damn interesting!
(Don’t stare at the lower green arrow too long. We only go there if this really is Depression #2 dawning. Too early to tell whether the financial tourniquets and bubble gum will hold.)
We have tremendous admiration for what the Federal Reserve in general, and former Fed chief Ben Bernanke in particular, are trying to do. It doesn’t get enough praise in the financial press. They’re trying to make up enough “easy money” to paper over a 35% economic decline. And so far? So good. At least sort of….
You see, in my work, we are about March 20th, 1930 or so. We’ll get into that chart in tomorrow’s Peoplenomics.com report. The gist of it, though, is that recognizing that the US economy was due to completely crater in March, the Fed pulled every lever they could think of in pursuit of Bernanke’s L4L (lower for longer) rates. And so far? It’s working. The trick is it needs to work until 2024. (The financial press buried the term through 2023 which to an oldtime like…er…me…means Jan. 1, 2024.
So: Can it KEEP working? That’s where we begin to ponder whether we’re flying toward a “safe landing in 2021” or whether we’re about to “fly into known [financial] terrain.”
Or in pilot terms: Could we be FIKT?
Bounding the Problem of 3(iii)[c]
Our view of things is pretty-damn “unconventional.” There is a witches brew of spreadsheets that have only the barest path-o-logic to ’em. The main insight, though, (after aggregated markets theory we cobbled up) comes from 2 standard deviation trend channels (*or what we just eyeball). Along with Elliott wave counts. A dash of On-Balance Volume and dueling fast and slow stochastics, and a dollop of MACD for trading our lunch money-sized account.
I think there’s a case to be made that since we hit the recent highs September 2 when our Aggregate Index topped at 32253.54 (which was the green “e”, we have done a (*left yellow trading box) 1 down, a two up, which was an a-b-c.
Than we started down into the (dash boundary) Wave 3 trading box. And since this could be a 3 or 5 wave down, though more likely 5 waves, we colored in the 3(i) as a red trading box and the expected 3(iii) down as the right-hand red trading box.
At some point, theory (though it’s too long a brew to discuss here – which is part of what Peoplenomics is about) of Aggregates offers the idea that we MAY get down to the lower (red arrow pointing down) trading box.
NONE OF THIS IS TRADING ADVICE.
Of course, we can speculate all day long. Since it’s possible that we have had 3(iii)[b] finish, then today might be something like 3(iii)[c] – which translates to being in the third of the third of the third. Which (to put it bluntly) is where shit usually flies.
We’re not playing this all greedy-like. Because the Fed has printers and better modeling than us. So we are ready to stop-out whenever things turn. Which could be any time. The world is crazy…and says the market (being a third of a third of a third) could continue in FIKT mode until our next “Turnaround Tuesday” in the worst case.
But hey! Maybe Superman will show up… I think the Mouseketeer’s Club – OK “The Mickey Mouse Club” had Jimmy announcing Wednesdays were “Anything Can Happen Day” and says over here this is “Showtime!”
How Durable Goods “Showed”
Funny you should ask:
“New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $232.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four consecutive months, followed an 11.7 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Machinery, also up four consecutive months, led the increase, $0.5 billion or 1.5 percent to $31.2 billion.
So it really depends how you want to account for the Fed’s cranking out of money. Since this is a dollarized number, we have no idea whether net “production units” are up, or down. Though we suspect down.
But then everything is suspected of being a “downer” these days.
After the number, CNBC was headlining it as “U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.4% in August, vs 1.5% increase expected“ so our “look out below” view is still in play.
Rip N. Read Dept.
Ah, the thrilling radio news “days of yesteryear…” The smell of two hot, oily
blondes Model 19 teletype machines. Yellow paper and blue ribbons in the United Press International Machine, white paper, black in the in the Associated Press machine.
Yards of copy would pile up. The sharp glass on the machines was used to “rip down the wire” which was hung on pegs. Thus informed, and stacked with some network audio “actualities” (voice of the newsmaker) and “wraps” (reporter plus a newsmaker), I would fill up 5-minutes, 8-hours a day pretty much non-stop for 13-years. But I digress – except to periodically honor the real radio reporting greats like Pye Chamberlain and my mentor . Yup. News is better than real work.and
Today (pretending to be progress) we have to rely on our RSS feeds for such content.
Which we merely point you to for the details. With a side of context coaching as we go. Ready? Cub reporter status awaits!
Oh, my. October surprise in the works? New York Times: John Durham has turned attention to FBI’s investigation into Clinton Foundation. Say, didn’t Russian interests contribute something like $145-million to the Foundation (ahem), or is my memory going?
Stirring up AmRev 2, looks like: Protester hit by vehicle during march down Sunset Boulevard in Hollywood. We observe that “right to protest” does not include right to fire bomb…but hey, detail, details and the maudlin Marxists are marching.
Meantime, in the People’s Breakaway State of Oregoon, we notice how them “peaceful” protesters were “biden their time” overnight: Portland Protesters Hurl Molotov Cocktails At Police, 13 Arrested.
The “true believers” keep lining up for more though: Portland Protester Tells CNN She’s Willing to Throw Water Bottles at Police ‘Every Day’ If It Will Stop Police Killings.
Meantime, the namby-pamby nature of socialist government in becomes more apparent in Portland protests: Prosecutors decline attempted murder charge against Molotov cocktail suspect. Do-overs and mush-heads will be the death of the Republic.
It’s not like an old-school level-headed reporter thought this up on his own: New York City, Portland, and Seattle are officially “anarchist jurisdictions,” according to DOJ.
Meantime, we find it interesting that although the mayor of uprising Portland says he will not step down, stories are whipping up in the PNW press like” Why are they asking, if he says he’s not? Division, fellow citizen. Divide and conquer.
In a little more reasonable move? Students start petition to rename Portland school after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. We now return control of the country to the (sane) rest of us.
Off to write eoplenomics for tomorrow and rustle up something interesting for Sunday.
Have a great (whatever this is) and ya’ll come by for Sunday coffee and to see what disasters have been wrought by then. Getting close to quake time now…got a case of water?
Write when you get rich,