Market: Up – but the Calendar Matters

Here we go with another late-summer Monday in the “world gone insane.” Mass shooting, dead senator, and Hawaii cleanup dominating the news flow elsewhere…

Like back in the day, when Disney theme parks had ride tickets (with things like Space Mountain being an “E” ticket) this would have been about a “B” ticket week.

On the excitement side, there is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (in a sec, keep your shirt on), and tomorrow we get the latest Case-Shiller S&P Housing Data, which means yes, a two-part report Tuesday morning.

The week goes-on with things like a GDP report, and so forth.  But it will be a week from tomorrow before things get back to nitty-gritty.  Things like the unemployment data will come out after the holiday.  Holidays are generally up-times for markets, so goes irrational exuberance.

Today, being August 27trh, and one day after the date of the “average annual high” for markets, we could see some upside remaining. But the question is “What’s left?:”  Sure, talk about a Mexico-NAFTA 2, but how real is it?  Ask after elections.

Last year, the Labor Day-off fell on Monday the 4th.  According to our dog-eared notes, that Monday in 2017 saw the S&P 500 close around 2,444.24.  By the Friday close, it was up around 2,478 and change.  No, this is not financial advice, but we (more or less) constantly remind you that seasonals do have some tendency to repeat.

With this in mind, the fall of 2018 should be a marvel to behold because last year, there was no appreciable “fall decline.”  Do it again and it could be a blow-off top.

While it’s true that fall declines are not uncommon, they are also not baked-in-the-cake.  Sadly, that can be an expensive point to learn.  In our work (on the Peoplenomics side) the market is – on any particular day – about equally likely to go up, or down, but it seems to come in “runs” as probabilities do.

But, it’s never so simple:  This week I’m working on the problem of “semi-circular rule sets” and it’s a useful thing to consider when investing – whether it’s stocks, bonds, metals, cryptos, or even a Home.

You’re familiar with the problems of logic, I’m sure.  You know:  If A equals B, and B equals C, and C equals D, then we can skip right on to A equals D and be done with the steps.

Unfortunately, in market behaviors, the logical strings work more like this:

  • A equals B, except with condition i is present.
  • B equals C, except when conditions ii and ix are present.
  • C equals D. except when iii, iv, vii and x are present.  But, only is rule A is such and so….
  • Conditions v, vi, viii, and xi  are just there to mess up your efforts at discerning logical trading efforts.
  • EXCEPT conditions v and xi apply on  third Tuesdays during summer months….

Welcome to the dicey world of algorithmic trading systems!

The idea (*when we use in our Trading Golem to a minor extent) sometimes may be reduced to a relationship between rolling averages of different durations.  This is what passes as “fun” when you get old, lol.

The bottom line to all this is that we could continue up through the week’s end, but unlike last year – when we didn’t have Robert Mueller ready to pop with whatever $20-million and a bunch of Trump-haters can come up with as a “report.” – the very best time to “rock the country” would be after the market’s close this Friday.

That would give any “shocking news” a good three-days to work its way through the world of finance before the US markets open a week from tomorrow.  And, if you didn’t want to be accused of weaponizing the market, Friday afternoon of this week would be a dandy time for either side (Trump to fire xxx people, or Mueller to “report” on his probe, or even for a report from John Huber’s FBI leaks and influences probe that no one seems to be talking about) to come out.

A couple of months back, Fox ran “IG 2.0 could be even worse for FBI as feds brace for Trump-spying probe” but the MSM has been sadly quiet on it since.

On the less conventional media, we note “Who is John Huber? 7th floor at FBI called center of power in nation’s capital” and related is the more revealing Epoch Times piece “Trump Asks Sessions to Investigate 12 Cases of Potential Corruption.”  And the man doing the investigating may be John Huber’s team.

To be sure, there are some of the “Trump faithful” who have not been pleased with the Cohen deal and such, yet the impact in popularity polls has been minor.  Still, stories keep popping up like this one from PJ Media that “96 Percent of Google Search Results for ‘Trump’ News Are from Liberal Media Outlets.”

Regardless of how you think. you view Trump, keep in mind that you may only believe that way based on your inputs.  And, if those inputs are controlled in a propaganda-like way, then you have a lot of personal error potential in how you assess the world.

WND reported this morning on  what we’ve been calling newly-arising Digital Mob Rule and the ongoing Webolution in their piece “Google-Facebook ‘can shift 12 million votes this election‘.”

It would be interesting as hell to see if Google, Facebook, and Twitter could be sued for unreported influencing of election results.  Aren’t search results a “contribution in kind???”

Just to remind you, the Washington Post reported this month that “Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey admits ‘left-leaning’ bias but says it doesn’t influence company policy.”  No, of course it wouldn’t...ahem…cough-cough..choke....

But, that’s how things look at the high-level view.  Stocks will go up a bit in early trading today, but we’re really more interesting in where things will be in two weeks and two months.  In the macro view, we could rally to Dow 30,000 before the year is out.  Or, we could be in the ditch and down 3,000 points in a single day.  Nice time to keep a cash position and be willing to trade a little potential gain to miss a potential slaughter if you make the wrong call.


Chicago Fed National Activity Index is just out:

Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.13 in July from +0.48 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.05 in July from +0.20 in June.

Not terribly exciting.  Dow futures up 134…

McCain Mania

He’s still dead.  But forget that, because his passing is being morphed into another piled-on as a Trump-Hate moment.

Obama, Bush Asked To Speak At John McCain’s Funeral; Trump Told To Stay Away.

Even the BBC plays pile-on in John McCain: Five times he clashed with Trump.

There was a time when politics transcended the darkness in people’s hearts; politicians used to get some things right.  But, with this McCain episode of politics from the grave, we have lost all respect for any political party chieftains.  They have orchestrated the fall of politics from being once the “high art of compromise” to cheer-leading their “dueling hate groups.”  That’s NOT how the formerly rational America used to operate.  Of course, that was back when we had borders, common sense, and a sounder currency prevaiing.

Silly us for remembering what was once so great…..

Short Takes

The air-sick bag is located in the seat-back pocket in front of you:

Mass Shooting at Florida Esports Event Raises Questions About Security.

‘We Need to Turn the Page.’ Mollie Tibbetts Remembered by Friends and Relatives at Funeral.  (Um…is the turning the page focus in liberal media so we don’t remember right up front that Ms tibbetts was [allegedly] killed by an illegal alien?  That didn’t get mentioned until the very end of the cited Time story.)

We don’t like to report violence.  Yet, as we look at the world through-data-driven-eyes, there are key variables that keep cropping up…

Well, moron the ‘morrow, then… enjoy the rally.

43 thoughts on “Market: Up – but the Calendar Matters”

  1. Re: McCain –
    I’m going to go completely against my usual character and adhere to the axiom that if you don’t have anything good to say then don’t say anything at all.

    … … …

    If I have a stroke then perhaps I can at least be a fly on the wall in the Devil’s chamber seeing what ol’ Johnny’s up to now.

    Sorry if this turns out to be a double post. Lost Internet connection there for a minute.

    • Interesting! It may help me divest myself of some non-performing property. It’s only non-performing because I’m too busy to get to it. This may sustain the price of realty for a while longer.

  2. I discovered the difference between Republicans & Democrats:

    1. Republicans want you to live your life.

    2. Democrats want to tell you how to live your life.

    Your choice this November.

    • ECS,
      Republicans want Corporations to tell you how to live your life and how much you get paid.

      Democrats say, if that’s the case, then corporations must pay for that privilege.

      Your choice this November.

      • Please Mark, this is ridiculous, they are all the damned same at the end of the day, owned in full by corporations or the MIC. What difference does it actually make what colour team they are?

      • Mark, about what you said which was mostly inaccurate:

        THEY CALL THIS THE FREE MARKET. Supply & demand tell you how much you get paid.

        THEY CALL THIS SOCIALISM OR PUTINISM. Democrats say, if that’s the case, then corporations must pay for that privilege so we can use the money to buy votes.

        Your choice this November. Bye the bye, this is my saying.

    • Hi ECS, the view from outside America is that this is one of the real problems in America. You guys can’t seem to see that there is clearly no difference between the blue team & the red team; nothing ever changes. Over the course of time the powerful have consolidated power & wealth & everyone else has stayed where they are or become worse off. It’s all about power. You guys fighting each other over one side saying you can live your life vs the other side telling you how is such wasted energy because regardless of how you guys ever vote, the status quo remains & it always will. They want you guys fighting over pennies in the street while they laugh all the way to the bank. One of your own greats put it best; “if voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it” (Mark Twain, apparently). A sad thought, I know, maybe George’s predicted great reset war coming in the 20’s will be good for us all!

      • Sober Colm: Good points. Most of which I agree with especially Mark Twain. But this is still the only country where you have a chance to succeed thru your own initiative. A young person going out in the world of USA has the exciting opportunity to live his life as he or she wants. Opportunities are still many.

        Even though both parties are the same, which can be proven by both parties hatred for President Trump, we still need to take a side. If it wasn’t for Pres Trump, taking a side may not be very important. But we have a President who cares, in an odd sort of way, about the American Dream & either you are for it or against it.

      • Well, that is not totally true ECS. Supply and demand mostly tells you how much your boss gets paid. The guy in the factory, not so much. Listen, I am a free market believer..My business and my income relies on it. Both parties have their hand in the till for different reasons, but for the same outcome. To get re-elected.

        Its funny you say Putinism…given our Presidents love affair with him. And socialism will never be mainstream with democrats, no more than far right religious freedom initiatives are mainstream with the GOP. Somewhere in the middle lies the answer.

        I voted mostly Republican my entire life until the party changed under Bush/Cheney…who I voted for twice. Extremism or the perception of it anyway on
        both sides has ruined politics. What happened to diplomacy? Oh, I know…boring middle of the road politics doesn’t sell TV, Radio, print or online advertising. Division is marketable and profitable. That’s how Trump won.

  3. George, sorry to interject actual facts into a good story, but a $20 ladder can foil a wall.
    Also, McCain can invite whoever he wants to his funeral. His and his family’s choice.
    Best, Mike

    • A. A $20 ladder doesn’t buy 2 steps – you need to go ladder shopping.
      B. McCain made it a political choice. Heaven and hell don’t hold elections.

      • Apparently they (McCains, or Republicans, your choice) haven’t gotten the hang of being victims. They could have waited until the funeral, and if Trump didn’t attend, start wailing that he couldn’t put aside partisan politics at this grave time when everyone should come together.

        This idea does have a major risk, though: if Trump is a gentleman, or a reasonable facsimile of one, he would attend the funeral, and reply to questions from the press that today was not the time for partisan politics.

      • Just because McCain is a politician and had a colleague he didn’t want invited to his funeral doesn’t make it no more of a political choice than anyone else’s last will and testament. His request to exclude Trump is no different than many peoples last requests to exclude family members from inheritance. It happens.

        They were not friends…They openly disliked each other…it’s a lose-lose proposition for Trump show up to McCains funeral even it wasn’t a request. If you openly disliked someone, would you go to their funeral? Would the deceased’s family want you there?

        This is a no brainer.

    • I have said it before..the wall won’t work…
      Instead use the laws already on the books and go after the employers and those housing them.
      Fine the employers and administrative staff. If it continues freeze the companies assets or better yet seize the assets like you do for drug traffickers.
      Deny benefits that are meant for citizens and those allowed in our country pay all taxes and a non resident tax without any benefits meant for those having citizenship.
      The wall is nothing but a symbol.

  4. George…’you said…”Regardless of how you think. you view Trump, keep in mind that you may only believe that way based on your inputs. And, if those inputs are controlled in a propaganda-like way, then you have a lot of personal error potential in how you assess the world.”

    Our inputs are straight from Trumps mouth and Twitter thumbs. Propaganda can’t hide or spin that. He says really dumb stuff…every time he speaks…mostly lies…over 4,000 lies to be exact. Does the media over react to his issues with the truth and the basics of the English language? Yes…they should…He is The frickin President of the United States! We teach our kids not be be poor sports…yet Trump displays poor sportsmanship at the highest level.

    The media just calls him out on it and Fox is starting to catch on. Neil Cavuto and a few others are calling BS on his latest foibles. I think even Fox knows things are crumbling in Trump World and they need to do an about face or face a ratings debacle.

  5. “Bomb Bomb Iran” and his efforts to get us into war in Syria,Iran, Georgia, Russia. (I’m sure I missed a few)


  6. I realized yesterday that my big deal is that I am just worn out and fed up with sharing this beautiful planet with all the evil, manipulative people who do their best to make life misearble for everybody else just so they can be richer. Yuck and puke. Some days, I want to leave.

    • That’s exactly what we’re faced with again this voting season here in my locale. After voting the local bond down earlier this year they’re throwing it back at us with a 25% increase! The arrogance is palpable around here. The people that are pushing this are all newbies that want to enhance their property values and then cash out leaving us with the bill. We’ve gone from a community that cares for each other to one that is being controlled by a group doing everything it can to beggar their neighbors.

  7. I voted for Senator McCain during his Presidential run in ’08 but fell away from his politics over the past decade. The man lived an incredibly remarkable life, especially after enduring so many agonizing years in Hanoi Hilton hell when he could have accepted a free pass home because he was an Admiral’s son. John McCain earned the right to speak his mind and choose the political windmills he’d regularly joust. “May the Lord keep the Senator in His hand and never close His fist too tight.” [Irish blessing]

  8. George, did you hear Mollie Tibbet’s “alleged” killer (he admitted he dumping her body in a corn field, why does he get a trial) is trying to get the judge to gag everyone from calling him an “illegal alien”? Not that the Liberal press uses that phrase anyway.

  9. Remaining agnostic politically and barely listening to MSM pays dividends. If you only work half time(12 hours a day, 24/7), you’ll rarely fail in economic life. Money is a means to an end, and a way to keep score, but it’s not the only measure of value.

    One notable metric is the price of OSB, drywall and studs in Home Depot. These are their fastest moving products and signal building and renovation activity, aka economic confidence.

  10. Immigrants still come to America for the American Dream. Some for the American Handout, but most for the American Dream & they are very hard, conscientious workers.

  11. “$20-million and a bunch of Trump-haters can come up with as a “report.” – the very best time to “rock the country” would be after the market’s close this Friday.”

    I am curious.. If the economy and the markets are up jobs reports..along with the string of reports of terrorist attacks are down along with a reduction of reports on warring activities .
    How then can anyone assess anything other than our presidents plan is working.

  12. “Um…is the turning the page focus in liberal media so we don’t remember right up front that Ms tibbetts was [allegedly] killed by an illegal alien? ”

    Go after the employers and the administrative staff If a farm or corporate head finds they are subject to losing their assets or have to pay huge fines or imprisonment it will end.

  13. Does anybody know military history around here? Senator No Name was on board the USS “Forest Fire” (Forrestal). his first brush with treason/treasonous acts..
    The company the elected acting Senator kept while touring the Iraq war theater w/Other easy to search for and view – , was most foul..see albagdaddy or whatever that goat breathed scum calls himself these days.
    Obviously a deep state asset like No Name wants the two biggest criminals in recent US political history to eulogize him, and the biggest, baddest Dog in the Military/LE/Justice not to be in attendance.
    As for apparent spelling errors, syntax errors, inappropriate Capitalizations, you are not paying close enough attention. Any communication from POTUS can be code, including time stamps. The errors are the clues, will need a online gematria calculator to solve.
    There is huge WAR taking place between TRUMP &Team vs the german DVD, bettter known is US asset Skull&Bones /322.
    Hope you all got some popcorn, the next act of show should be dropping in Sept, think numbers/codes and the Sept date they shoved up our collective tuckuses for perpetuity.

    SPY Strangle was unwound via selling the Puts=18% loss today, Calls are up 43% ,will put in Stop Loss Sell order to capture profit. Thinking about putting a Strangle on again at end of week.Happy hunting..

  14. Q’s post 1935 – aug 27, 2018

    [He did not depart on his own terms]


    in fact Q said 30 days ago to expect it,
    so much more to write, but,
    NO NAME was a Mcstain upon this country

  15. Wasnt it McCain who sent his aid to London to pick up the phony dossier? The same dossier that was created as opposition research by the Hillary clan and was never vetted? Trump has every right to be disgusted by the man who played a big role in creating this Mueller witch hunt…that has yet to prove Russian collusion.

  16. Dear Mr. Ure,

    One trusts the weather generator from your flying days has been giving good service. There was an interesting CBC report issued last Friday that Volkswagen will re-consider use of hail-inhibiting cannons at its Puebla, Mexico plant. Farmers complained that the technology created drought weather conditions.

    Looking around on the web suggests a primary supplier of these devices is based out of New Zealand, and VW may simply be one installation example of many similar.

    Butterflies flapping their wings together move mountains?

  17. “if those inputs are controlled in a propaganda-like way, then you have a lot of personal error ”

    Mark..check out the link for computational futures.

    Everyone and every news outlook has their own spin on a story. What is fiction what is up to everyone to determine. I scan the papers then see what each has in common. Not just the USA but the world papers. The ones that gain my attention are the outlandish stories on page six..the ones everyone would laugh at then toss know the ones the ones that are ridiculous yet they feel they have to spend hundreds of millions to theory is there are no secrets..since everything is done with several organizations study groups and in’s best to hide it in plain sight. Then discredit it.
    Weed out the scripted with the unscripted then decide what do you believe.
    The Yes/No

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