Here we go with another late-summer Monday in the “world gone insane.” Mass shooting, dead senator, and Hawaii cleanup dominating the news flow elsewhere…
Like back in the day, when Disney theme parks had ride tickets (with things like Space Mountain being an “E” ticket) this would have been about a “B” ticket week.
On the excitement side, there is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (in a sec, keep your shirt on), and tomorrow we get the latest Case-Shiller S&P Housing Data, which means yes, a two-part report Tuesday morning.
The week goes-on with things like a GDP report, and so forth. But it will be a week from tomorrow before things get back to nitty-gritty. Things like the unemployment data will come out after the holiday. Holidays are generally up-times for markets, so goes irrational exuberance.
Today, being August 27trh, and one day after the date of the “average annual high” for markets, we could see some upside remaining. But the question is “What’s left?:” Sure, talk about a Mexico-NAFTA 2, but how real is it? Ask after elections.
Last year, the Labor Day-off fell on Monday the 4th. According to our dog-eared notes, that Monday in 2017 saw the S&P 500 close around 2,444.24. By the Friday close, it was up around 2,478 and change. No, this is not financial advice, but we (more or less) constantly remind you that seasonals do have some tendency to repeat.
With this in mind, the fall of 2018 should be a marvel to behold because last year, there was no appreciable “fall decline.” Do it again and it could be a blow-off top.
While it’s true that fall declines are not uncommon, they are also not baked-in-the-cake. Sadly, that can be an expensive point to learn. In our work (on the Peoplenomics side) the market is – on any particular day – about equally likely to go up, or down, but it seems to come in “runs” as probabilities do.
But, it’s never so simple: This week I’m working on the problem of “semi-circular rule sets” and it’s a useful thing to consider when investing – whether it’s stocks, bonds, metals, cryptos, or even a Home.
You’re familiar with the problems of logic, I’m sure. You know: If A equals B, and B equals C, and C equals D, then we can skip right on to A equals D and be done with the steps.
Unfortunately, in market behaviors, the logical strings work more like this:
- A equals B, except with condition i is present.
- B equals C, except when conditions ii and ix are present.
- C equals D. except when iii, iv, vii and x are present. But, only is rule A is such and so….
- Conditions v, vi, viii, and xi are just there to mess up your efforts at discerning logical trading efforts.
- EXCEPT conditions v and xi apply on third Tuesdays during summer months….
Welcome to the dicey world of algorithmic trading systems!
The idea (*when we use in our Trading Golem to a minor extent) sometimes may be reduced to a relationship between rolling averages of different durations. This is what passes as “fun” when you get old, lol.
The bottom line to all this is that we could continue up through the week’s end, but unlike last year – when we didn’t have Robert Mueller ready to pop with whatever $20-million and a bunch of Trump-haters can come up with as a “report.” – the very best time to “rock the country” would be after the market’s close this Friday.
That would give any “shocking news” a good three-days to work its way through the world of finance before the US markets open a week from tomorrow. And, if you didn’t want to be accused of weaponizing the market, Friday afternoon of this week would be a dandy time for either side (Trump to fire xxx people, or Mueller to “report” on his probe, or even for a report from John Huber’s FBI leaks and influences probe that no one seems to be talking about) to come out.
A couple of months back, Fox ran “IG 2.0 could be even worse for FBI as feds brace for Trump-spying probe” but the MSM has been sadly quiet on it since.
On the less conventional media, we note “Who is John Huber? 7th floor at FBI called center of power in nation’s capital” and related is the more revealing Epoch Times piece “Trump Asks Sessions to Investigate 12 Cases of Potential Corruption.” And the man doing the investigating may be John Huber’s team.
To be sure, there are some of the “Trump faithful” who have not been pleased with the Cohen deal and such, yet the impact in popularity polls has been minor. Still, stories keep popping up like this one from PJ Media that “96 Percent of Google Search Results for ‘Trump’ News Are from Liberal Media Outlets.”
Regardless of how you think. you view Trump, keep in mind that you may only believe that way based on your inputs. And, if those inputs are controlled in a propaganda-like way, then you have a lot of personal error potential in how you assess the world.
WND reported this morning on what we’ve been calling newly-arising Digital Mob Rule and the ongoing Webolution in their piece “Google-Facebook ‘can shift 12 million votes this election‘.”
It would be interesting as hell to see if Google, Facebook, and Twitter could be sued for unreported influencing of election results. Aren’t search results a “contribution in kind???”
Just to remind you, the Washington Post reported this month that “Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey admits ‘left-leaning’ bias but says it doesn’t influence company policy.” No, of course it wouldn’t...ahem…cough-cough..choke....
But, that’s how things look at the high-level view. Stocks will go up a bit in early trading today, but we’re really more interesting in where things will be in two weeks and two months. In the macro view, we could rally to Dow 30,000 before the year is out. Or, we could be in the ditch and down 3,000 points in a single day. Nice time to keep a cash position and be willing to trade a little potential gain to miss a potential slaughter if you make the wrong call.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index is just out:
Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.13 in July from +0.48 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.05 in July from +0.20 in June.
Not terribly exciting. Dow futures up 134…
He’s still dead. But forget that, because his passing is being morphed into another piled-on as a Trump-Hate moment.
Even the BBC plays pile-on in John McCain: Five times he clashed with Trump.
There was a time when politics transcended the darkness in people’s hearts; politicians used to get some things right. But, with this McCain episode of politics from the grave, we have lost all respect for any political party chieftains. They have orchestrated the fall of politics from being once the “high art of compromise” to cheer-leading their “dueling hate groups.” That’s NOT how the formerly rational America used to operate. Of course, that was back when we had borders, common sense, and a sounder currency prevaiing.
Silly us for remembering what was once so great…..
The air-sick bag is located in the seat-back pocket in front of you:
‘We Need to Turn the Page.’ Mollie Tibbetts Remembered by Friends and Relatives at Funeral. (Um…is the turning the page focus in liberal media so we don’t remember right up front that Ms tibbetts was [allegedly] killed by an illegal alien? That didn’t get mentioned until the very end of the cited Time story.)
We don’t like to report violence. Yet, as we look at the world through-data-driven-eyes, there are key variables that keep cropping up…
Well, moron the ‘morrow, then… enjoy the rally.