Trump’s Blow-Off Market

Reader Note:  Look for the Housing Update at 8:15 AM (plus or minus coffee) so check back…

How much of a Stock Bubble will the Trump Administration get?

My consigliere and I talk about this on a regular basis and it all comes down to a combination of the social mood, technical innovation and change, and let’s toss in a heaping spoonful of momentum trading, shall we?

First the Big Picture:  Yes, in my work is is a near-certainty that we are replaying the 1929 stock bubble right now:

Pay particular attention to the “A” bottom in 1929’s pre-blowoff period  See how I assert that this has a modern analog at boint “B?”

Now, if we simply copy that – make the arrow red and move it to the top of the 1929 experience – we can get some kind of idea where things could go for the next five months, or so.

We will work out some slope of the data numbers for our subscribers and report them tomorrow.  Like driving a car on a foggy road, it’s at least useful to know where in the fog to be looking.

What is Driving the Blow-Off?

Take your pick of the headlines.  A LOT of it has to do with trade.  My consigliere, being a tax attorney (because my annual retainer only buys a QuarterPounder and fries) thinks it will come from a number of places.

A Big One, of course, is the newly minted Mexico NAFTA deal – a huge win for Jared Kushner.  As my consigliere sees it, this will press ahead the Canadian NAFTA rewrite. Canada is in the unenviable negotiation position of being led by a child.

Justin Trudeau’s problem – at the tender age of 45 – is that he is a pure-bred politician.  His dad was a politician…and he wins in politics.

The problem is trade’s a little different. I personally tend to view politicians (like Trudeau Lite) very suspiciously:  Politicians as a lot tend to be BIG Starters and poor Finishers when comes to public policy.  Maybe that’s because the finishing of things isn’t as important in politics.  Which is why America, for example, as been “starting” to fix poverty for over a hundred years and – thanks to the breed that fights over the steering wheel, we aren’t there yet.  Ditto on racism and damn near everything else.  If getting to the future could be done with words, we’d already be in Nirvana, but frankly, that we aren’t (and instead have crumbling infrastructure) should be a global indictment of the Political Hack Class.

But back to Trudeau Lite:  According to Wikipedia “He also started a master’s degree in environmental geography at McGill University, before suspending his program to seek public office among other reasons.”  Which to me speaks volumes about “completion.”

On the other hand,, Kushner’s resume summary (again, Wiki it) reads like this:

“Kushner graduated from Harvard in 2003 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in government.  Kushner graduated from New York University in 2007 with dual JD/MBA degrees. He interned at Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau‘s office, and at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP.”

This is not to say Canada will be poorly represented when further NAFTA talks come.  Only that if I was reading about two horses in The Daily Racing Form, one looks like winner’s circle material and the other looks like it’d have a hard time paying the feed bill this year.

My consigliere sees the Mexico win as setting off some dominoes falling:  The Europe trade revamp is essentially a done deal.  The left-wing press managed to smother that being, as they are,  wrapped around the axle of the Deep State Serial Lie about Russia.

And once Canada figure’s out that Canadian citizens (who we generally admire) are bright-enough to buy domestic dairy and cheese products over imports from the US, they came come back to the prevailing economic reality.

That will leave only China and my consigliere figures that will not end badly. As we sees it, China cannot afford to blow-up Trade with the US because that’s one of the few things that could collapse plans of that “worker paradise” to become more of a global power.  I respectfully disagree…which is not wise when paying for wise counsel.  My reasoning’s contorted, but should become clear.

Along the way to these trade events, which we agree will be fueling the blow-off in coming months, is the news that one of the key sources in the serial attacks on Trump – Lanny Davis  – has just admitted making misstatements about whether Trump knew about Russia  White House meetings. Gee…a lie…are we surprised?

We can skip past Ure’s “told-you-so’s” about how the Deep State Fix was in on the whole Trump Probe.  But, even if you’re lazy, the “money ball” in all this was in the BuzzFeed coverage where they write: “After Davis publicly backtracked from the claims, the New York Post and the Washington Post outed him as their confirming source and published apologies from Davis, a lawyer and communications expert who became well known for his work for Bill Clinton.:

Bill?  Since this is “resume morning” the Wiki on Davis offers that “Some of Davis’s emails with Hillary Clinton were released to the public as part of the Hillary Clinton email controversy. The flattering emails were characterized by some media members as “cringeworthy.”.

Yep, Davis sounds like a fine CNN source, to us..

Meantime, the political landscape has begun to shift.  Democrats running for office are no longer touting impeachment as an issue.  And if they run on their record, there’s not likely to be any kind of “wave” by either party this fall.

The situation I’m thinking America could likely face in the November elections could be a rhyming in historical terms with the 1929 elections in England:

“The 1929 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 30 May 1929, and resulted in a hung parliament. It was the second of four general elections under the secret ballot and the first of three under universal suffrage in which a party lost the popular vote (i.e. gained fewer popular votes than another party) but gained a plurality of seats—the others of the four being 1874, 1951 and February 1974. In 1929 that party was Ramsay MacDonald‘s Labour Party, which won the most seats in the House of Commons for the first time, but failed to get an overall majority. The Liberal Party led by David Lloyd George regained some of the ground it had lost in the 1924 election, and held the balance of power.

The election was often referred to as the “Flapper Election”, because it was the first election in which women aged 21–29 were allowed to vote, under the provisions of the Representation of the People Act 1928. (Women over 30 had been able to vote since the 1918 election.)

Piecing all of this into the modern-day experience (since it’s how our financial charts are guiding us) is easy…provided you remember a couple of key things about history.

First, each time history makes a “grand cycle” there may be an east-to-west rotation.  In US Colonial times, the English reigned.  Before them, the French… This time?  If we want to understand what could be ahead for America, we look to the British Great Depression experience.

The second point is that “flappers” were the “sexual morays shock troops” of 1920’s “coffeehouse society.”  Like the militant LBGTQ etc. today.  A study of history quickly reveals the historical context of things like Starbucks success:  It’s part of a historical cycle:

“The first ‘ahwah opened around the 1850s and were originally patronized mostly by older people, with youths frequenting but not always ordering. There were associated by the 1920s with clubs (Cairo), bursa (Alexandria) and gharza (rural inns). In the early 20th century, some of them became crucial venues for political and social debates.”

Once you understand this larger context of history (though I’m no historian, mind you) the economic cycles (that I do know a bit about) come into sharper perspective.

In the process, we still see Donald Trump moving into a Hoover II in Depression II template, but with a different lead-in than Hoover experienced.

If you want to understand Trump’s presidency and prospects better, you might want to pick up the 2017 Kenneth Whyte book “Hoover: An Extraordinary Life in Extraordinary Times.”

When read in this odd light of cyclical history, and then adding some active thought-modeling,  there’s a case to be made that:

  • Like Hoover, who was profoundly involved in trade and tariff matters prior to his presidency and who carried it into the White House, so, too, Trump, by virtue of his business interests, has a global perspective on trade and barriers.
  • Even as Hoover claimed some trade successes, so too Trump is now notching a few.
  • While Canada may reduce tariffs on US goods as a result of the NAFTA rethink, China may not be so ready to cave.
  • And, as China doesn’t give easily, we would expect to see the arrival of an Asia-directed Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act clone that would come proximate to the beginning of the stock market’s final bubble.

Remember the timing of Smoot-Hawley?  “Introduced in the House of Representatives as H.R. 2667 by Willis C. Hawley (ROR) on April or May 1929.”  We should see trade bills galore.

For today, Donald Trump may feel pretty good:  Jared came through on Mexico, Lanny Davis may have blown-up a Mueller prosecution.

But bigger problems remain:  The New York investigations.  Unlike congress, State’s can indict a sitting president.  Not that it would result in anything, but coupled with a global economic blow-off, and then to be followed with quickly rising “Trumpville’s” – the expected analog to Hoovervilles, the study of history and cyclical economics should provide ongoing guidance and thinking points for life in an increasingly irrational world.

Signals in the Noise

Consumerism’s last gasp?  Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index Reports Global Parcel Shipping Reaches $279 Billion in Revenue.  At some point, resource depletion will matter.

Meanwhile, the rich get richer: Upscale jewelry chain Tiffany’s results beat, raises profit outlook.

Then there’s the digital tulip fields: Enterprise Blockchain Revenue to Surpass $20 Billion by 2025, According to Tractica.  Digitulips are $7,030 this morning.

Did you notice? Looming Production Shutdowns and Second Dip in Operating Rates Challenge Global Methyl Methacrylate Market, IHS Markit Says.  If this doesn’t make sense, helps to know MMA, as it’s called, is the key ingredient in acrylic plastics…

More on Monday’s note on search engine bias: Trump threatens Google over alleged biased search results.  To our way of thinking, search ought to be government provided, overseen by a publicly accountable board, and no ads or tracking.  Or links to Provo’s “inside the moat.”

The thought model here is:  “What if a Google model ran fire or police departments?

EA to cancel remaining Madden Classic qualifier tournaments after shooting.”

Remember our recent piece on how to be more effectively lazy?  Well, here comes Time with “Why Being Lazy Is Actually Good For You.”  PUREly coincidental.

Our Kind of Marketing

Not as good as our tourism promotion “Missouri Loves Company:” but did you see where “Florida town of Mayo changes name to ‘Miracle Whip’?”

Our kind of marketing spreads?

Well, moron the morrow… Pun police have us surrounded..Ure: outta here.

18 thoughts on “Trump’s Blow-Off Market”

  1. I have given up on my trading experiment. Although fun, it was not profitable. About a break even in a Bull market, not good. It is better to follow the trend until it ends.

    Mark: About your voting Republican. Most likely when you were young & pursuing success you voted Republican because you believed in the American Dream. Once you succeeded and did not have money worries, you fell in with the hip crowd & went Democrat, since you could afford it now & it was good for business. That’s the price you have to pay to live in CA or NY.

  2. Trudeau included various social policy “must haves” in his negotiations. Unfortunately for him and by extension Canada Trump could not agree with them because the Senate would never ratify them and the US Federal and State Courts may well have ruled them unconstitutional. In other words Trudeau was completely unprepared to negotiate with the USA.

    Trudeau then announced he would separately negotiate with Mexico.This was a mistake because it allowed Mexico to really “understand” the Canadian Foreign Minister’s goals for a successful agreement.

    Mexico realizing that Trudeau’s social policy objectives are real policy objectives and not throw away “issues” used to gain leverage in bargaining, decided to stick to negotiating a trade deal.

    Now Canada is under pressure. I expect that Trudeau will not back down and there will be a collapse of the talks. The only thing that could save them is the 5 year renegotiation clause. This would save it because when Trump is gone Canada can then lobby to include the Social policy objectives.

    Given Trudeau’ prior negotiating strategy I wonder if he will be able to think through the issues as I have just done?

  3. George

    “At some point, resource depletion will matter.”

    I have always thought that technology would be used to strip mine old garbage dumps for discarded materials. Mainly metals. There must be lots of that stuff that was not recycled and is now sealed away in layers of detritus. Plenty of hydrocarbons too!

  4. ECS,
    No I voted Republican in my early years, because I was uninformed. The metro I lived in was conservative and promoted limiting beliefs. I was always somewhat of a contrarian, by Midwestern standards anyway, and I realized that the more I bucked the trend, the more successful I became. I had a creative director at our ad agency at the time that used to say “If you are comfortable with an idea…It’s probably a lousy idea.” He used to preach innovative and unconventional mindsets as the key to success. I have never forgotten that.

    I only voted Republican because I hadn’t totally transformed my beliefs. The more I traveled, the more my world view changed. It wasn’t until I was recruited heavily by a Silicon Valley Company in the late 90’s that I even realized what I had missed out on. Still, I voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004 because the Democratic candidate didn’t excite me and I was a fiscal conservative…still am…and am now middle of the road socially.

    When you are surrounded by tens of thousands of multi-millionaires as I am (18 billionaires) and they all have the same open minded beliefs, (except when it comes to Trump) you tend to mirror the successful habits of those around you. And guess what they preach here…Innovative Mindsets.

    2 It’s not only good for business, it is good for my soul. I have never been more at peace with myself. It’s not the price I pay living here…it’s a gift that I receive day in and day out. I have traveled everywhere…no better place to live, love and learn on planet earth.

  5. George,

    The Mexico “trade deal” is all smoke and mirrors. Nothing has been settled on yet. Some snippets from various news reports….

    There is no formal free trade deal between the US and Mexico, only an agreement between the two countries on how to resolve key issues in their trade relationship as part of the NAFTA talks. The US trade representative’s office officially described the agreement as “a preliminary agreement in principle … to update the 24-year-old NAFTA with modern provisions representing a 21st century.”

    His statement was just his normal made for TV moment to distract us from his daily screw ups.

    “…None of that stopped Trump from giving the impression on Monday morning that he was “terminating” NAFTA “and going into this deal” with Mexico. He even added later in the day that he had “just signed a trade agreement with Mexico,” which cannot happen without the US first nixing NAFTA.”

    From Trumps own mouth…sitting behind the Resolute Desk “And this is a tremendous thing. This has to do — they used to call it NAFTA. We’re going to call it the United States-Mexico Trade Agreement, and we’ll get rid of the name NAFTA.”

    Of course you will call it that Don…because as we all know…it is all about you…

    YET…Trump has repeatedly indicated in the past he would prefer to reach bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico, but the two countries have maintained a united front that a trilateral agreement is the only one they will sign. There was no indication on Monday that Mexico had abandoned that position.

    Instead, the Mexican President Enrique Peña-Nieto, who joined Trump in the Oval Office by speakerphone, emphasized three times the importance of Canada joining the burgeoning agreement.

    “I desire, I wish that the part with Canada will be materializing in a very concrete fashion, and we can have an agreement the way we proposed it from the initiation of this renegotiating process, a tripartite,” Peña-Nieto said through a translator.

    So what exactly did Kushner accomplish?

  6. The “Internet” is the world’s largest public network. It’s all government owned. Trump is only saying things to make the base feel good. Everyone got hooked with the porn.

  7. George, I don’t understand why if you see Trump repeating so many of Hoover’s mistakes, you remain such a strong, emotional supporter.

    Examples from today: No need for ‘Crumbling Infrastructure’ if we didn’t spend the $2 trillion on tax cuts for corporate buybacks and the rich. Or, goofy to call it a ‘Deep State Serial Lie about Russia’ when we’ve had 7 convictions and we’re still maybe in the 5th inning. Best, Mike.

  8. If you take the Trump/Hoover analogy further you will find that Hoover kept control of Congress in the midterms. I will be surprised to see a blue wave in November…most likely the Republicans will maintain their majority.

  9. George, I’m fine with the government providing *A* search engine, but certainly not the only one! My pet peeve with Google is it owning the premier search engine, the premier video platform, the operating system for most cell phones, the largest email system in the western world(and requiring a login for the “play store”). That, and having ONE common login across all platforms! It’s a horizontal monopoly by any definition and should be broken up by use of the anti-trust acts. I have no problem with excellence, but the centralizing of power in one corporation with no accountability is simply wrong. This company is exercising political power in illegitimate ways at least, and it’s possibly illegal as well.

    Facebook is another questionable one, but they’re far less invasive. Nobody needs facebook. Governments in particular, should keep their own websites current and not default to using facebook instead as their platform. Many local governments are using it as their easy way to interface with various departments, including police.

  10. Everyone is smart, except Donald J Trump. That is why Everyone in San Fran area ALL are Billionaires and all were elected President.
    Only Trump does does not know what he is doing,only Trump does not know how to negotiate with Vladimir Putin.
    Anderson Cooper (Mockingbird Media/CIA-Project Mockingbird)knows how to stand up to Putin.The whole crowd at MSNBC does. All the journalists do.
    They could not stand up to Matt Lauer @ NBC
    ” ” Charlie Rose @ CBS
    ” ” Mark Halprin @NBC
    Nor Leon Wieseltier @The New Republic, nor Micheal Oreskes @ NPR, at the NYT, or at the Associated Press. But – oh, wow! – can they ever stand up to Putin.
    Only Trump is incapable of negotiating with the Russian tyrant.
    remember the 4 years Anderson Cooper was President of the United States? and before that when the entire Washington Post editorial staff jointly were elected to be President?
    TRUMP voters get him because not only is he we, but we are he. We are NOT snowflaked for life by effete professors who themselves never had negotiated tough life or death serious deals. We live in real world, not backed by social science theories, not based on conceptual negotiating models. But based on people we have met in our life and always will hate. That worst Boss, the co-worker who tried to sabotage us. We know the sons of bitches out there and we learned to deal with them.
    Take NATO – please..

    WW1 – 116K -Killed In Action
    WW2 – 405K -KIA..and then we had to rebuild them. We pay 4% of our massive GDP to protect NATO member states, and they,all of them have not even payed the 2%, of tiny GDP’s compared to USA, they promised to pay. Is there a Culture more penny pinching cheap and stingy than the fine members states of NATO? These cheap baseborn pricks will never pay their fare. And they have the audacity to cheat us further in trade.
    TRUMP shoved that EURO bullcrap in their quiche and saurerkraut loving faces, convinced them he was crazy enough to go to Trade War, and pull our Troops home.
    TRUMP in 18 Months has;
    -turned around economy
    -brought us near full employment
    -reduced Welfare and Food stamp lines
    -wiped out ISIS in Raqqa
    -moved embassy to Jerusalem
    -opened oil exploration in ANWR
    -Rebuilding Military
    -launched massive deregulation on Economy
    -walked out of useless Paris climate accord
    -canned very bad IRAN deal.
    -slashed INCOME taxes
    -expanded legal protection for students
    -got Vets Choice if VA svcs are backlogged, can go regular healthcare
    -appointed steady line of brilliant federal judges.

    What has Anderson Cooper, Jim Acosta, New York Times,and WAPO achieved during that 18 months? They can’t even find the courage to stand up to the cowards who abuse sexually,emotionally or psychologically. We will take Trump negotiating for USA ANY DAY.
    -borrowed heavily from rabbi prof. dov Fischer

  11. Have the Government Regulate Google? Are we China, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq now? That’s the most ridiculous comment you have made….ever.

    Trump searches are negative because of his name calling, thousands of lies, dozens of staff and Cabinet hires, resignations and firings and well, just the negative way he goes about his business. If he were to just shut up and execute, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. Trump making everything about him complicates this whole mess. His contentious personality, in my opinion is 100% why Mueller is still investigating. There’s a lot to be said about speaking softly and carrying a big stick. His way is to yell obnoxiously and carry a wet noodle.

    If I were to stop 100 people in the street, and ask them about their opinion if Trump, 99 would throw up in their mouth at the mere mention of his name. That’s an analog example of how search works

    Plus, the courts would laugh at the notion of government regulation of Google and strike that down in a nano-second.

    • How about enhancing the legal definition of Slander and Defamation, to make social media giants responsible for the destruction of reputations based on scurrilous gossip and deliberately contrived circumstances, meant to destroy credibility and ability to make a living. How much are reputations worth, especially when the people hurling the gossip and claims of wrongdoing, are guilty of the exact very deeds, they are using to slay their adversaries.

      How about we start with Lanny Davis and his most current retraction related to the Trump Tower meeting, that CNN has yet to retract, after over 3 weeks of allowing that lie to become the narrative?

  12. Dear Mr. Ure,

    Thank you for this opportunity to correct some of the errors of comparison in today’s report between Mr. Kushner and Dr. Trudeau aged 46 years old. The latter has two undergraduate degrees from Canadian universities as well as an honorary doctorate awarded by the alma mater of the former.

    One can’t be surprised to hear that NAFTA has been diluted to its lowest common denominator, Mexico. Certainly it’s a clever smokescreen to divert attention away from the reality of a USA absent the Trans Pacific Partnership. Separately Dr. Trudeau gave a well-received speech at The World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year.

    • I keep thinking I should run for office, DH. One reason? I have some blank spaces on the walls of the office.

      I’d like to add some honorary degrees to them (Dr. Ure would be a nice moniker) and it would be fine to add a Nobel peace Prize too…

      Perhaps I should have been born a neighborhood organizer?

      • Comrade,

        JT is well-schooled in the theatre craft for the world stage. His entourage’s expansive ethnic dress-up displays on a junket to South Asia were more Indian than India and worthy of a Royal Court Ball.

        It’s difficult to imagine though that the apple rolled far from the tree. JT has blood links to influential central bank and media families. The private energy company expanding the transcon oil pipeline network was recently nationalized when increasing hurdles were encountered. It seems JT has a mind to complete the plan. Of course his father, PET, when pressed for response on invocation of The War Measures Act to curtail 1970 separatist terrorist activities replied “just watch me”.

        We watch with interest. ;)

  13. “But if you ask Obama’s fellow organizers what his most significant accomplishments were, they point to two ventures: the expansion of a city summer-job program for South Side teenagers and the removal of asbestos from one of the area’s oldest housing projects.” The HORROR!

    Jeesh, the denigration of a community organizer without any understanding of what Obama actually did. “Community Organizer” sounds so, so, communist and scary. Boo!

    If organizing Chicago church congregants to clean up contaminated water, to remove asbestos from public housing and to get jobs for the inner city then yup that is damn bad scary work that Obama performed.

    I really am surprised how anyone could attack someone that tries to help churchgoers clean up their neighborhood. I wish more people did that.

Comments are closed.