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How much of a Stock Bubble will the Trump Administration get?

My consigliere and I talk about this on a regular basis and it all comes down to a combination of the social mood, technical innovation and change, and let’s toss in a heaping spoonful of momentum trading, shall we?

First the Big Picture:  Yes, in my work is is a near-certainty that we are replaying the 1929 stock bubble right now:

Pay particular attention to the “A” bottom in 1929’s pre-blowoff period  See how I assert that this has a modern analog at boint “B?”

Now, if we simply copy that – make the arrow red and move it to the top of the 1929 experience – we can get some kind of idea where things could go for the next five months, or so.

We will work out some slope of the data numbers for our subscribers and report them tomorrow.  Like driving a car on a foggy road, it’s at least useful to know where in the fog to be looking.

What is Driving the Blow-Off?

Take your pick of the headlines.  A LOT of it has to do with trade.  My consigliere, being a tax attorney (because my annual retainer only buys a QuarterPounder and fries) thinks it will come from a number of places.

A Big One, of course, is the newly minted Mexico NAFTA deal – a huge win for Jared Kushner.  As my consigliere sees it, this will press ahead the Canadian NAFTA rewrite. Canada is in the unenviable negotiation position of being led by a child.

Justin Trudeau’s problem – at the tender age of 45 – is that he is a pure-bred politician.  His dad was a politician…and he wins in politics.

The problem is trade’s a little different. I personally tend to view politicians (like Trudeau Lite) very suspiciously:  Politicians as a lot tend to be BIG Starters and poor Finishers when comes to public policy.  Maybe that’s because the finishing of things isn’t as important in politics.  Which is why America, for example, as been “starting” to fix poverty for over a hundred years and – thanks to the breed that fights over the steering wheel, we aren’t there yet.  Ditto on racism and damn near everything else.  If getting to the future could be done with words, we’d already be in Nirvana, but frankly, that we aren’t (and instead have crumbling infrastructure) should be a global indictment of the Political Hack Class.

But back to Trudeau Lite:  According to Wikipedia “He also started a master’s degree in environmental geography at McGill University, before suspending his program to seek public office among other reasons.”  Which to me speaks volumes about “completion.”

On the other hand,, Kushner’s resume summary (again, Wiki it) reads like this:

“Kushner graduated from Harvard in 2003 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in government.  Kushner graduated from New York University in 2007 with dual JD/MBA degrees. He interned at Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau‘s office, and at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP.”

This is not to say Canada will be poorly represented when further NAFTA talks come.  Only that if I was reading about two horses in The Daily Racing Form, one looks like winner’s circle material and the other looks like it’d have a hard time paying the feed bill this year.

My consigliere sees the Mexico win as setting off some dominoes falling:  The Europe trade revamp is essentially a done deal.  The left-wing press managed to smother that being, as they are,  wrapped around the axle of the Deep State Serial Lie about Russia.

And once Canada figure’s out that Canadian citizens (who we generally admire) are bright-enough to buy domestic dairy and cheese products over imports from the US, they came come back to the prevailing economic reality.

That will leave only China and my consigliere figures that will not end badly. As we sees it, China cannot afford to blow-up Trade with the US because that’s one of the few things that could collapse plans of that “worker paradise” to become more of a global power.  I respectfully disagree…which is not wise when paying for wise counsel.  My reasoning’s contorted, but should become clear.

Along the way to these trade events, which we agree will be fueling the blow-off in coming months, is the news that one of the key sources in the serial attacks on Trump – Lanny Davis  – has just admitted making misstatements about whether Trump knew about Russia  White House meetings. Gee…a lie…are we surprised?

We can skip past Ure’s “told-you-so’s” about how the Deep State Fix was in on the whole Trump Probe.  But, even if you’re lazy, the “money ball” in all this was in the BuzzFeed coverage where they write: “After Davis publicly backtracked from the claims, the New York Post and the Washington Post outed him as their confirming source and published apologies from Davis, a lawyer and communications expert who became well known for his work for Bill Clinton.:

Bill?  Since this is “resume morning” the Wiki on Davis offers that “Some of Davis’s emails with Hillary Clinton were released to the public as part of the Hillary Clinton email controversy. The flattering emails were characterized by some media members as “cringeworthy.”.

Yep, Davis sounds like a fine CNN source, to us..

Meantime, the political landscape has begun to shift.  Democrats running for office are no longer touting impeachment as an issue.  And if they run on their record, there’s not likely to be any kind of “wave” by either party this fall.

The situation I’m thinking America could likely face in the November elections could be a rhyming in historical terms with the 1929 elections in England:

“The 1929 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 30 May 1929, and resulted in a hung parliament. It was the second of four general elections under the secret ballot and the first of three under universal suffrage in which a party lost the popular vote (i.e. gained fewer popular votes than another party) but gained a plurality of seats—the others of the four being 1874, 1951 and February 1974. In 1929 that party was Ramsay MacDonald‘s Labour Party, which won the most seats in the House of Commons for the first time, but failed to get an overall majority. The Liberal Party led by David Lloyd George regained some of the ground it had lost in the 1924 election, and held the balance of power.

The election was often referred to as the “Flapper Election”, because it was the first election in which women aged 21–29 were allowed to vote, under the provisions of the Representation of the People Act 1928. (Women over 30 had been able to vote since the 1918 election.)

Piecing all of this into the modern-day experience (since it’s how our financial charts are guiding us) is easy…provided you remember a couple of key things about history.

First, each time history makes a “grand cycle” there may be an east-to-west rotation.  In US Colonial times, the English reigned.  Before them, the French… This time?  If we want to understand what could be ahead for America, we look to the British Great Depression experience.

The second point is that “flappers” were the “sexual morays shock troops” of 1920’s “coffeehouse society.”  Like the militant LBGTQ etc. today.  A study of history quickly reveals the historical context of things like Starbucks success:  It’s part of a historical cycle:

“The first ‘ahwah opened around the 1850s and were originally patronized mostly by older people, with youths frequenting but not always ordering. There were associated by the 1920s with clubs (Cairo), bursa (Alexandria) and gharza (rural inns). In the early 20th century, some of them became crucial venues for political and social debates.”

Once you understand this larger context of history (though I’m no historian, mind you) the economic cycles (that I do know a bit about) come into sharper perspective.

In the process, we still see Donald Trump moving into a Hoover II in Depression II template, but with a different lead-in than Hoover experienced.

If you want to understand Trump’s presidency and prospects better, you might want to pick up the 2017 Kenneth Whyte book “Hoover: An Extraordinary Life in Extraordinary Times.”

When read in this odd light of cyclical history, and then adding some active thought-modeling,  there’s a case to be made that:

  • Like Hoover, who was profoundly involved in trade and tariff matters prior to his presidency and who carried it into the White House, so, too, Trump, by virtue of his business interests, has a global perspective on trade and barriers.
  • Even as Hoover claimed some trade successes, so too Trump is now notching a few.
  • While Canada may reduce tariffs on US goods as a result of the NAFTA rethink, China may not be so ready to cave.
  • And, as China doesn’t give easily, we would expect to see the arrival of an Asia-directed Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act clone that would come proximate to the beginning of the stock market’s final bubble.

Remember the timing of Smoot-Hawley?  “Introduced in the House of Representatives as H.R. 2667 by Willis C. Hawley (ROR) on April or May 1929.”  We should see trade bills galore.

For today, Donald Trump may feel pretty good:  Jared came through on Mexico, Lanny Davis may have blown-up a Mueller prosecution.

But bigger problems remain:  The New York investigations.  Unlike congress, State’s can indict a sitting president.  Not that it would result in anything, but coupled with a global economic blow-off, and then to be followed with quickly rising “Trumpville’s” – the expected analog to Hoovervilles, the study of history and cyclical economics should provide ongoing guidance and thinking points for life in an increasingly irrational world.

Signals in the Noise

Consumerism’s last gasp?  Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index Reports Global Parcel Shipping Reaches $279 Billion in Revenue.  At some point, resource depletion will matter.

Meanwhile, the rich get richer: Upscale jewelry chain Tiffany’s results beat, raises profit outlook.

Then there’s the digital tulip fields: Enterprise Blockchain Revenue to Surpass $20 Billion by 2025, According to Tractica.  Digitulips are $7,030 this morning.

Did you notice? Looming Production Shutdowns and Second Dip in Operating Rates Challenge Global Methyl Methacrylate Market, IHS Markit Says.  If this doesn’t make sense, helps to know MMA, as it’s called, is the key ingredient in acrylic plastics…

More on Monday’s note on search engine bias: Trump threatens Google over alleged biased search results.  To our way of thinking, search ought to be government provided, overseen by a publicly accountable board, and no ads or tracking.  Or links to Provo’s “inside the moat.”

The thought model here is:  “What if a Google model ran fire or police departments?

EA to cancel remaining Madden Classic qualifier tournaments after shooting.”

Remember our recent piece on how to be more effectively lazy?  Well, here comes Time with “Why Being Lazy Is Actually Good For You.”  PUREly coincidental.

Our Kind of Marketing

Not as good as our tourism promotion “Missouri Loves Company:” but did you see where “Florida town of Mayo changes name to ‘Miracle Whip’?”

Our kind of marketing spreads?

Well, moron the morrow… Pun police have us surrounded..Ure: outta here.