Let me share just one point from our Peoplenomics.com report our Saturday for subscribers: Friday was a down day for the market, overall.
Oh, sure, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up almost 34-points. But declines in the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were such that if you had equal dollars in all three, you would have come out down for the day.
This is the core of Aggregate Market theory which is one of our useful little inventions around here. We like to look at data (like the Dow, or whatever) of course. But sometimes there’s a bigger context and when an eclipse is coming up, those “larger contexts” might be very much worth keeping in mind.
Let’s talk about some eclipse predictions:
One reported widely on the ‘net is that Arch Crawford, who is really one of the all-time architects of Financial Astrology, says he expects the eclipse period to be “near” to military conflict. Not that the eclipses all by itself is a big deal, but astro alignments are such that we enter a “window.” (You’ll remember Arch nailed 9/11.)
The headlines are shaping the worries ahead nicely, already:
When viewed in the context of such headlines, Arch’s work may not be far from the mark.
Our own work, which for months has been pointing to a top in the August 21-24 timeframe, may also come in “close” – but it will all depend on how the headlines wash out over the next three weeks.
In the meantime, though, we could be very cautious about getting too anxious about tossing new money into the market, at least until we have a solid 2-3 day pullback to the bottom of the present trend channel. After that, an “up, up and away” mood to the top would fit just perfectly.
Years so, though, at the old Frontier Sports Book, where a colleague had been teaching me the art of handicapping, I put a few bucks on a horse that all the figures said should be coming in first place. Being no fool, I put a hefty show bet on.
That horse came in DFL.
I asked my colleague how this could happen – and I still look at markets this way even now: “Well, George, the Horse didn’t read the Daily Racing Form.”
Markets, like horses are irrational in the short term but predictable in the long term.
This week I have the stock market equivalent of a $30,000 place bet on the market for the coming few weeks.
Hope the market reads UrbanSurvival.
Bitcoin’s Technical Problem
Here’s another one worth watching: You’ll remember we characterized Bitcoin as being in a possible “hesitation moment” before blowing off to a final high?
Here’s a corner of a chart courtesy of www.bitcoincharts.com to consider:
I have tossed a few numbers up: You can see from the (so far) all-time high, there has been a 1 down, a 2 up, and now we can see either Bitcoin starting an upside breakout from right here. OR, we could see it dropping down to put in a lower low than the bottom of 2.
We don’t play the crypto currency game – since it is even less real than the fiat/paper game of the Fed.
Still, if we break out higher than the incept of 1, then our $3,000+ target will be in play, but if we take out the lows of 2 to the downside, then you will want to consider standing aside.
All a matter of taste and appetite for risk. Third waves down are typically 1.5 times the magnitude of wave 1’s.
Can Employment Be TOO Good?
The main economic news (other than flash goggle sales and maybe a check with Shane Conner over at www.ki4u.com to see how potassium iodide pills are doing) should be employment data at the end of the week.
We have been seeing very good employment numbers, but there is also softness in the housing markets we follow, including the Phoen ix area where it “feels” – looking at north Phoenix homes with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a pool – like prices aren’t going up.
But the employment rate has been solid, but even this can be a problem. You see, in markets like Seattle and Portland, the cost of labor (typically $15 per hour and up now) is so high it is driving some food businesses to close. They can’t afford the food, employees, and overhead, at prevailing price points.
Eventually, this is called wage-driven inflation. But it’s not a national phenomena yet. Right now it’s mainly in the “go-go” markets.
Our touchstones for the rest of this week: Personal incomes tomorrow, ADP job creation Wednesday, Challenger job cuts Thursday, and the Labor Department data Friday.
Big winner in overnight market action was the Hang Seng, up more than 1%. Europe is bouncing after late week losses last week. And the US looks to pop up 50, or so. But the real questions revolve around confidence and how the White House is doing.
White House Changes
See White House shakeup watch: Why the media prefer Kelly over Priebus.
North Korea’s DPRK News Service has gotten on the Trump bashing, tweeting:
“Friday afternoon, once seen by Americans as time of leisurely workplace slacking, now feared in anticipatory dread of leader’s incontinence.”
Real question is whether retired Gen. John Kelly – ex-head of Homeland – will be able to stop the leaks out of Trumpville.
I’d be looking for a high-profile “Example” to be set.
Not Climate Change
But rain for the South? Keep an eye on this Tropical Storm Watch.
Matters of Taste
We loved this bit from Science Daily: What’s in your rum? Flavor scientists create a lexicon of terms to describe nuances of popular beverage.
A little early to pour a shot of field research, but a worthy story to study.