We take the benefits of living in a “complex society” as a “given.”
However, as I have argued many times, both here and on the Peoplenomics site, anti-fragility is a myth. It’s existence depends on ignoring critical substrate.
An example? Well, while there are multiple fallbacks to rolling power (or web) failures, the critical substrate (elixir of Life) is electricity. Turn off the power and most of “modernity” takes a hike.
Thus, reading the news as an aware human (yet, God-forbid, not “woke” and its implied herd stupidity), we seek events, their relationship to substrates, and thus enabling us to have a clearer vision of future risks.
Electricity, though not our topic specifically today, represents “critical inputs” of the sort comprising modernity. Today’s news commentary will explore both substrate and boundaries threatening fragility. Pay attention as we go.
On GDP and Jobs
If you haven’t figured out that U.S. (and Western) GDP is a joke. For the simple reason that it is mainly dollarized. We know from recent data, for example, that GDP this year is reported as “…up 6.4% in the first quarter of 2021.”
Yet, when we visit the BEA data center, we find that (on a current dollar basis) Q1 GDP in 2019 was $21,115.3. Two years later, this year it was $22,061.0. 4.47% in a two-year window. And that’s before we back out a 30% plus increase in M2 money supplies.
The reason for my advocacy of unit production GDP becomes apparent. Because with enough crooked accounting (don’t look at what the left-hand is doing!) you can take even a failing state and report Gloriously Positive statistics. Doesn’t matter if it’s a failing Soviet Union or the collapsing shell of America. You know the place…where manufacturing goes to China and we’re making-up Nuevo-Industries out of gender, weather, and race. It’s rucking fidiculous.
Even attempts to partially dismiss clear-headed, hard-nosed economics with a scheme of “chained dollars” (not the same as adjusting for actual money injected through inflation/excess printing) begins to reveal the fraud.
Q1 of 2019, for example, chained-dollar GDP was 18,950.3 billion. Two years later? 19,088.1 billion. Thus, calculator at the ready? In chained dollars (semi-inflation-adjusted) Growth in ‘Merica has been a lousy 0.7271652 percent over two years. Call; it, what? Under half a percent per year?
“Lies, damn lies, and statistics” explained Mark Twain (Clemmons). He should have stuck around for the capper: “Politicians.”
OK, the Job Numbers
In much the same spirit, we have to look at the mainstream idiocy about employment numbers. Only two really matter to economic fundamentalists.
One is the number of people actually working and the other is their hourly wage rate.
Because (assuming you’re over 40 ‘cuz this is a grown up, well past “woke” website) you will notice as you age that your “standard of living hasn’t changed much…if at all.”
Government runs a massive Daycare Operation for its citizens. The rich get taxed to support the poor. The poor cause all kinds of social issues and this becomes the basis of the Crime Industries. A whole sector viewed from from our sweeping vista that includes the jailhouse uniform makers all the way to Law Schools and prison industries. Including the laws (like marijuana laws) that are more about boxing non-conformists up and preventing “free gardening” to protect a well-paying booze lobby’s
pay-offs. Oops. Campaign contributions.
Understanding – seeing through the fog of media – we can then take the Labor employment report and reduce it to its essentials as follows.
Let’s start by looking at the three numbers that actually matter.
First is the total number of people working:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 559,000 in May, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in public and private education, and in health care and social assistance.
OK: 151.62 million people working. Last month? 151.176.
“WAIT! That’s only 444,000 more people working!”
Why do you think they mention “non-farm?” See how this works>
Second is their average hourly income: $30.33 this month, $30.18 last month. 5-10th’s of one percent. Meantime, the Fed was making up another $120-billion to print through Depression II.
Third (and this is oh-so-much fun!) is the CES Birth-Death Model. CES being short for “current employment situation.” This chart shows how many jobs are estimated into-or-out-of existing:
“Wait! Out of 444,000 total more working, 218,000 were estimated to be working?” Uh…yeah….something like that. Point is this economy is miles from being a rip-snorter.
There’s no particular conclusions to be drawn. Other than it will cause a ruckus on Wall Street and send out some political waves. Which, in the greater scheme won’t matter. Because?
UFOs – The NEXT Mania
Three weeks from now, a government report on UFOs will be released. But the hype is already ratcheting up. See the New York Times piece Government Report Finds No Evidence UFOs Were Alien Spacecraft. Which comes as absolutely no surprise.
Picked up elsewhere, like in the Sun, it becomes UFOs ‘MUST be seriously investigated’ and the Pentagon’s report is just first step, Senator Rubio says.
For all the media hype, there are only a few credible theories of where they’re from and how we might visit. Some of the choices are?
- Bent space-time: Solid possibility. This solution set is based on the notion that space-time can be “bent.” Upon doing so, something really strange happens. The inside region of bent space-time becomes “separated space” and – in there – the rules of the normal “here and now”
don’t work the same. This is a continuity research area. Starts with Die Glocke (Bell) during WW II and may involve updated use of the same core technology: High speed rotation of mass to warp space-time. As friend Roger in Tucson (synchronistically) sent me an email this week on where the U.S. TR3-B project was a decade ago.
- Underseas Civilization: (Not that we have much of one on dry land, lol). This one offers that somewhere under deep oceans (still 95% unexplored) there might be a species that evolved under extreme pressures such as found at great depths. Different than the pressures of shaming and wokeness…
- Trans-dimensional Travel: I might claim to be something of an expert on this insofar as I’ve looked long and hard at it in my book Dimensions Next Door. There are multiple possible access routes including portals (*as in Native American lore and the Skinwalker Ranch series on Amazon, and the George Knapp book on point). This route’s a bit sketchy, though I’m focused on the acoustical openings idea. Since it would fit well with reported events in the Bermuda Triangle and in particular, the experience of Bruce Gernon in his book “The Fog: A Never Before Published Theory of the Bermuda Triangle Phenomenon.” Yes, we do have a modest recording studio and (as time permits) work on high-density sound using sources from synthesizers to the brilliant samples in Garritan World Instruments plus my digeridoo and some of HP’s vintage lab gear. Acoustical or electronic? Mixed in some ultra sonic or infrasound way? We need a National Portal Opening contest. Get John Hutchison an invite, too. More seriously? I’d pay very close attention to Dr. Ron Mallet’s work.
- Government’s Lying. Say! There’s an unthinkable, huh? In some of the reports from Navy pilots, UFOs have extremely high “mission persistence.” That is, they can be out doing sky-play for 12-hours and longer. Why would the government lie about such things? Simply (as in the case of 120 MPG carburetors for cars) introduction of massively disruptive technologies is simply too great a risk for America. We could fall apart as a society is new technology isn’t doled out slowly enough to be evolutionary but not so fast as to be revolutionary. Remember the DeLorean in Back to the Future? If you could bust time and beat gravity (3rd movie in series) running on garbage, why hang around?
Makes for fascinating stuff for some people who are looking forward to something akin to “disclosure” (as a big nothing-burger) in three weeks. Most of the major deal points are already in the wild if you work at it. For other people? More important that Amazon Prime Days fall that week.
Seeing why we don’t qualify as an advanced society, yet?
(Peoplenomics readers are reminded of my personal UFO/encounters view in “Who’s Out There?” accessible from the Master Index page of Peoplenomics.)
CV-19 – Subplot?
As a novelist, I can’t tell you how tempting it would be to come up with some plot ideas for an “instant novel” that would capture the essence of the UFO hype and marry it into the Covid story. Lot of possibilities to ponder in your spare time:
- Is CV vaccine to condition us for meeting them?
- Is CV-vaccine more like as marinade to soak human’s in?
- Is CV-19 something “caught” from an alien that’s been kept under wraps since the Roswell bodies were recovered?
All kinds of possibilities to weave here in a Robin Cook/Stephen King kind of way.
I suppose we could mention that Dow futures are up a bit:
The Bitcoin recovery is kinda slow, don’tcha think? Only $36,577 which is about 55% of it’s all-time high.
In Ure Shorts
Wakey-quaky Oregon Shaky? No tsunami threat from 5.9 earthquakes off Pacific Coast – ABC News (go.com).
Politics of Consumption is present and accounted for in North Carolina county bans Coca-Cola machines after company criticizes Georgia voting law (nbcnews.com).
Biden Immigration Sham for the lambs: US taps groups to pick asylum-seekers to allow into country (sfgate.com). Notice how the Center for Immigration Studies wasn’t included, for example? Could it be for their series “D-Day on the Rio Grande? The Biden Administration Facilitates Mass Illegal Immigration (cis.org)“?
Relying on Seasonally Adjusted numbers, CNBC reports the big unreality in Jobless claims fall below 400,000 for the first time since the early days of the pandemic. Again, see the first yellow highlight here to repeat the REAL numbers are OVER 400,000. Unlike government, we like “clean” data:
For the data-impaired 425,450 is MORE than 400,000. FMTT who are these parrots? Claims were UP not down…
Green and Mean? IMF Warns Russia Not to Underestimate Green Energy Transition
Around the Ranch Useful
Now the important stuff:
News driving you to drink? No worries! 5 Ways to Use Overproof Rum Like an Expert offered on Lifehacker.
Latest in Chris Tyreman’s “Step-by-Step Millionaire” series. “My Million Dollar Mansion Burned Down…and I don’t care…” You’ll see why and the “vibe” or “feel?” Very much along the lines of our little double-wide in the woods. You’ll enjoy the discussion because it gets to one of the core points of UrbanSurvival – and even planetary survival at some level: What exactly is sufficiency to you?
OK, more work ahead…, Dow futures down 27, S&P up 3 with almost an hour to the open.
Have a great weekend: Drop by for Sunday ShopTalk and do subscribe to Peoplenomics for our unconventional view of markets.
Write when you get rich,