The departure this week of a “squad” of Benjamins worth of account value from my Lunch Money trading account, brought (somewhat brutally) to my attention that we are now likely in Wave 3 Down, of which we had (1) down seeming to complete and we are likely in the rally to be associated with Wave 3 (2) – which is the short rally. Usually.
Unfortunately (and yes, still in the short position today) this could be over and done with already because in Elliott Wave terms, we have had a minimal Fibonacci based fill.
Of course, this is all based on our meta index we call the U.S. Aggregate…and I will lay the rest of it out (as a possible how future arrives) on the Peoplenomics subscriber side tomorrow.
The short version is, we are still likely to go higher, but we need a pullback to give a line of demarcation for this wave (2) rally which is likely to be an a-b-c and – if we turn down here, after a decline to something like 36,012.10 on the Aggregate, a move higher to finish (around the top of the declining trend channel in this view):
You can see the (1) down of the yellow scale large 3 are indicated by my “trading boxes” (fat candles) and yes, the market could roll over into (3) any time now because the minimums have been met. Unknowable is whether there’s a shitstorm right here, or if we have a nice pullback (George’s squad of Benjamin’s returns in either case) or something worse.
The Stalinesque nature of jobs reporting in America leaves us with a bitter taste. Just as Stalin was always told (during failing Five Year Plans how things are “always getting better, Comrade…”, so too we see modern economics as being (pardon the directness here) not being able to say shit, even with a mouth full of it.
So, bite into this one:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.
As always, the “numbers bureau” will provide something to make everyone happy. The specific tool is the CES Birth/Death Model. Essentially, it’s supposed to be an economic “best guess” at how much is being contributed by the gig economy and non-documented growth.
This month? CES Model contributed 412,000 jobs.
How the Lie Tests
Not really a lie. Just a political deception. Because the number of people working was actually down more than 300-thousand for the month!
Let’s see: 348-thousand fewer people officially working and they’re selling (quote): “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October.” I have highlighted this in brown because it’s bullshit happy-talk.
Oh, Ure’s not wrong on this. If you’d look your lying eyes would have connected Shipping giant Maersk announces 10,000 job cuts, warns of volatility (cnbc.com) with it. Recession of the sheep.
I wish our own (overpriced) government would be more candid and honest about the headlines they spew/puke.
With this, jobs are set to take some heat for the market opening today. Which means it could blow down into the close, and after Hezbollah and Iran serious up on their threats beginning this weekend, World War 3 could be in full bloom next week.
War, Sabers, and a Houseplant
My consigliere is not a happy man. He notes the U.S. has effectively declared war on Iran with House Resolution 559 quietly passed earlier this week. The official text of which reads, in part:
(2) that Iran must not be able to obtain a nuclear weapon under any circumstances or conditions;
(3) to use all means necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon; and to recognize and support the freedom of action of partners and allies, including Israel, to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
Which, as an attorney reads things, means the U.S. has been “maneuvered” into fighting Iran on Israel’s behalf. After (and it’s being scrubbed from the net, so save it to local files) there was much discussion about how Israel stood down going into the October 7th debacle. All very much a chess game going on.
The Stock Market’s violent rally 3 (2) hitting a minimum upside to permit a huge decline as a (3) of the larger 3 down at the close of Thursday’s trade, leaves it an open question as to how soon all the smelly stuff hits the fan blades. There are these two wave counts, see?
Best approach is likely to divide into parts: The current action part, the threats part, and the houseplant response part.
To the first, then, current action:
- Israeli ground troops advance, encircling Gaza City (jewishinsider.com)
- And Russia’s involvement clarifies: Russian rocket in Israel: Iran arms Hezbollah from Hmeimim base – IDF deploys Commando Brigade – Kamikaze drones hit its positions.
On the claims and assessments side:
- Hezbollah’s H. Nasrallah is expected to speak shortly. Announcing his forces joining the fight, When they do so, look for a high level of Russian and Iranian involvement.
- Russia meantime is keeping up pressure in the northern war overnight (Ukraine) as Ukraine Says Russia Hits Civilian Targets In Kharkiv, Tries To Encircle Avdiyivka (rferl.org.
- And new/additional U.S. sanctions are being hyped as somehow slowing down the Russian advances. Russia Tries to Shrug Off Latest US Sanctions (kyivpost.com).
Then in the Houseplant’s department:
- Blinken presses for pause in Gaza fighting on visit to Israel amid fears war could widen – Washington Times
- And the Blunderer in Chief? Joe Biden calls for ‘pause’ in the Gaza conflict – Mehr News Agency.
- Was that a dumb idea? (Yes) So let’s rewrite it as US calls for ‘temporary, localized’ pauses in Israel-Hamas war.
The problem in wars is always similar: Misperceptions. Joe Biden (Commander in Chief Biden) thinks that moving the Eisenhower through the ditch will be unopposed and that the U.S. can conduct air ops to Iran’s nuclear developments with some price, but doable.
However, as G.A. Stewart’s books on Nostradamus have much more than hinted over the years, there’s a northern war and then a southern war. And you can see where Turkey could walk out of NATO – shutting down U.S. air ops out of Incirlik and then we could have a (more or less) continuous battlefield from Poland to Egypt, if you can wrap your head about something as horrific as that.
Remember, Greece and Turkey are not exactly palsy-walsy and that could light up. Remember last summer reading Greece pledges more high defense spending, seeks F-35 fleet | AP News?
All of which (if you envision war as a regional cancer slowly metastasizing) grows into a tumor sucking energy from human greed related to energy and resources, Like Ukraine’s grain basket, the Dnieper-Donets petroleum basin and off the Eastern Med, the ever-expanding potential of the Leviathan oil and gas fields.
Somewhere, it all goes “off the rails” and that’s may be what leads to the “Damascus” part of various prophecy. All ending with something of a “global war cemetery” in Jordan; Ham’onah. (multitude). The name of a city mentioned in Ezekiel. Eze 39:16. But the lead-in to that is worth the time to take in. Not so much on religious grounds, but more as a “flavor of news to come” kind of thing.
So, yes, my consigliere’s concerns on present events seem well-founded.
Going into the weekend, among the possible flare points are:
- Does Israel preemptively hit Iran?
- Does Egypt roll into Gaza?
- Does Erdogan leave NATO?
- Does Hezbollah and Hamas have sleeper cells in the U.S.?
We’ll check it out Monday.
Crypto king Bankman fried: Sam Bankman Fried’s parents in tears as privileged son faces up to 115 years in jail.
Orange in the Courts: Ivanka Trump loses appeal to delay ‘middle of school week’ testimony in New York civil fraud trial | The Independent (the-independent.com). Eric Trump testifies in fraud trial that he never worked on father’s financial statements | Fortune. And Trump asks appeals court to stay gag order in D.C. 2020 election interference case .
Off to see what’s going on with the market – which is trying to rally on the “good news” of unemployment trying to tick up?
Write when you get rich,