Jobs: All the Gains were ‘Made-up’

Jobs:  The Hype, the Data and here’s the sausage.

I had to put on my “eye muffs” this morning to filter out the BS about how “Economy expected to add one million jobs in April.

Well, bubba, here’s what really happened:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other services, and local government education were partially offset by employment declines in temporary help services and in couriers and messengers. .”

That there would be some gains had been baked in after the ADP report – especially when taken with a post-pandemic low in Job Cuts announced Thursday.  But, this is a miss by a country mile.

Only a few numbers in the jobs report matter:  For us, the total number of people working last month, compared with the same number a year-ago makes sense.  But let’s not overlook the December 2019 Total Employed count.  158.803 million.  November of 2019 was also strong: 158.596.  And just so you have it at hand, in April of 2019, the number of American’s working was 156.696-million.  151.176-million working in this report?  GMAFB.

Last point to keep in mind as we assess today’s report?  A year-ago (2020) in April, the pandemic was grabbing.  So the number of people employed was 133.403-million. My point being that (if you remember now denominators and numerators work) that witless politicians will claim a massive gain from year-ago employment levels.  But 2-year ago levels may be lost in the hypenstance.

The Gains were ‘Made-up’

Now, our two numbers that matter most:

  • Total Persons Employed:  151.176 million.  STILL about 5-million fewer working than in April of 2019.  (Yes, statistically ignorant people can’t go back more than a single pandemic influenced year, but we grown-ups can…)
  • Number of Jobs ESTIMATED into existence in the CES Birth-Death Model.  Which is piped into the total employed assertion:

OK, the claimed gains were “more than 266,000.”

But as you can see, 298,000 jobs were “ESTIMATED into existence” by the CES Birth-Death Model.

Adult men unemployment was up 3-10th’s of a percent.

Table B says goods producing jobs dropped 16-thousand.  So services and the shopkeeper economy is keeping this puppy going.

Government employment was up 48,000 – explains why taxes are going up, huh?

After the number the Dow dropped 50-something.  But the hype in the broader market continues.  Hard to beat free money, right?

But the REALITY is the stock market is in a super-bubble.  Because measures like our Aggregate Index show that in April of 2019 – the pre-pandemic market was 25,074.26.  Yesterday’s close was 37,313.50.  That a an increase of 48.8%.

That’s increase is not due to “American Exceptionalism” (except maybe when comes to hype and BS).  It’s due to the “feral” government wildly printing money, hoping no one will notice that the “Emperor has clothes, but has no Net Worth.

Statistical Ignorance

Americans have terrible memories.  Stocks up 50% while total employment on a two-year basis is still down about 5-million just doesn’t make sense.

The problem shows up in other statistics, as well.

Take this week’s Rail Time Indicators report from the Association of American Railroads.  Proudly proclaims:

U.S. railroads originated 951,840 carloads in April 2021, up 23.7 percent, or 182,060 carloads…

Yet, when we go back not one year but two, how was traffic doing in 2019?  Here’s what they reported in May of last year as the pandemic was setting in:

U.S. railroads originated 980,535 carloads in April 2020, down 25.2 percent, or 329,693 carloads, from April 2019.

Which means? 2019 traffic was 1,310,228 carloads if my calculator is warmed up.

Which means the present rail run rate is on the order of  still down around 30% below 2019 levels if my thinking cap is still on.  Fits with total employment being down, doesn’t it?

Right tune for the occasion seems to be Donovan’s Roots of Oak” – since we’re focused on “facts, figures, and logic…

Kinda hard to roll with, though, when the tide is running “Lore, legend, and magick…”  It’s how socialist insurgencies run, I suppose.

Easier tack? Gundlach Warns America’s “Unfunded Liabilities” Are $163 Trillion, More Than 5x National Debt |over on  ZeroHedge.”

You can either open up your personal F-stops a bit or live in the information manipulation dark age.  Your call.

Morbid Ignorance

Financial markets are a lot like the “Spouse from Hell.”  No sooner do you actually get something done, than the whining begins afresh about whatever is “next on their agenda.”

Jobs are done…in the can.  Next week?  Aye, there’s the rub.  Inflation data with the CPI coming Wednesday.

Our Aggregate Index for the past couple of weeks looks like this:

You’ll see there’s a bolded reading in the lower middle with a box around it.  Until we bust above this level on a closing basis, I won’t be too anxious to “go long” but at the same time until we bust under the 37,000 level, we’ll keep Chicken Little penned up, too.  Later today?  We’ll see.

There’s no point in “playing on the financial freeway” blind-folded.  We have a (misnamed) “Federal” Reserve that is holding data about the nation’s M1 and M2 money flows secret until the information is old enough to be useless.

Next week the news flow will tell us a lot more about our collective future.  The Consumer Price Index is unwrapped next Wednesday while the NFIB Small Business optimism index will be out Tuesday.  Unless you’re like our pal “Don Bondi” in Houston, make this a three-day weekend.

With the 10-year at 1.56 percent, will we see it begin to climb now?  How will that roll into stocks?  My thinking is gravity rules but I’ll sit on my wallet for a while longer.

War’s Still Coming

Don’t be so impatient!  

Yes, all the concerns of G.A. Steward – scribe of all things Nostradamus – are falling into place.  And after meetings in Europe over the Orthodox Easter, all’s still “locked and loaded.”

The Biden administration is working its butt off trying to catch former Trump adviser Rudy in a legal snare:” ”

But off in the background,  you did notice “Blinken: U.S. supports Ukraine against Russian aggression –”

Goading of the Putski into action?  We’ll see. Is Euromaniacs in the dick-shun-airy yet?

BTW, don’t know how deep you are into music, but did you ever hear the Al Stewart song Nostradamus from way back in the day?  Try YouTube over here…  (Long cut , 9:44 so start with a fresh cuppa…)

Out West, China’s still going reunify Taiwan.  So tackle “Pressure and pineapple wars: Taiwan fears quieter Chinese threat as U.S. warns of invasion (”  Then move on to what could be a real-life Weather Wars story: “Taiwan rations water, drills extra wells amid record drought – The Washington Post.”

Oh, and here comes another Buy’ed Em sell out of American interests:  US weighs unfreezing $1 billion in Iranian funds.  Gee, I don’t look surprised, do I?

No Climate Disaster – Yet

Instead, we are continuing the warm up phase of solar Cycle 25.  But, in the longer view of other data, you can see how we will likely roll back to weather of the early 1800’s..

This from the latest NOAA Solar Cycle Projection.  You do remember blizzards from this period?  The roll of multiple “hotter than normal” cycles is circled in yellow and is the inception point for climate hysteria.

There’s a loose case for major blizzards on the upswing of sunspots so we’re half-way planning on an interesting winter to come.

Of course, we still also have our finger’s crossed that Elaine’s second hip replacement and following physical therapy will be substantially done before the world blows over…or freezes over.

Short Takes

There’s a reason the Soviets were big on their “Young Pioneers” and why Hitler had a “Hitler Youth” division in propaganda.  So do pay attention toFirst grade parents shocked after transgender book: report.”   Get ’em while they’re young?  Any “straight” marketing sextbooks or would that be a little too much equality among the ignorant Woke?

Schools bribing in  Covid shots:New Jersey university offering students up to $1,000 COVID vaccine incentive.”  We think there’s room for a class action suit in Washington State where two state schools are demanding a vax cert or no attending…

Oh, long as we’re perusing the lying socialist cretinsAOC says Planned Parenthood promotes births, saves lives.”  PP promotes births?  Maybe AOC means “out of cranium.”

Buying Off Liberal Do-Gooders:  Biden Aides Quietly Say His Tax Increases Would Help Charities.

Outdoor idiocy?  How far will the healthstapo go?  Grand Canyon 153-person hike organizer from Washington state facing federal charges | reports Fox News.  Nothing out of the ordinary, though as public lands become increasingly off-limits and non-public.

Do as we say, because “we’re special” dept.  Ohio state senator seen driving during video meeting on same day that distracted driving bill is introduced.

Something for Your Brain

Try this link after first reading this:  Polyplexus – Interdisciplinary Science Platform – Honored With Fast Company’s 2021 World Changing Ideas Recognition.

Beats hell out of wild “beer reviewed” internet sourcing…

Back to the garden – Peoplenomics tomorrow and Sunday Shop Talk here the following day.

Write when you get rich,

37 thoughts on “Jobs: All the Gains were ‘Made-up’”

  1. Hey Dude,

    how about a lil rabbit hunt this AM ? Why lookey here – a rabbit hole..

    You know Ure over the target, when Ure car starts driving all on it own – or right after seeing some strange looking gal staring at you from across the street – Ure arm all of a sudden aches, face goes flush, BP spikes..heart attack ackack.

    Whats the Frequency, Kenneth ?

    • Love it.

      What’s the frequency Kenneth?

      That’s got a Dan Rather ass kicking all over it.

      Touché. Somebody’s paying attention to the way the world works.

      Want to start a Fight Club anyone???

  2. “Nostradamus ”

    There’s a great story in the following link, 12 minutes if you listen. I’m only referencing the Prologue and Act One. The gist, a gal tricks a guy into meeting for a date. In the end she comes clean about the lies, but the guy committed to her lies. His mind can’t/won’t paradigm shift out.

    Mind Games

    People who try simple mind games on others and find themselves in way over their heads.

    Host Ira Glass interviews Lori Gottlieb about the time she sent a letter to a writer in a magazine, a letter packed with white lies. (5 1/2 minutes)

    Act One
    Lori Gottlieb’s story from the prologue continues. One complication led to another and before long, the writer seemed to be lying to her. Or maybe he wasn’t. It was hard to tell. Years later, she still isn’t sure what happened. Gottlieb is the author of Marry Him: The Case For Settling For Mr. Good Enough and other books. (7 minutes)


  3. George!

    G.A. Stewart not Steward!

    He is my guru and guiding light through the dark times and gloom and doom…

  4. Around here the manufacturing sector has “Help Wanted” signs in front of almost every factory. Even what have been economically challenged rural areas have “Help Wanted” signs up everywhere AND starting wages in those areas for fast food type jobs are now up to $11-$12 per hour (from about $8) and many businesses in those areas are starting at $15.

    (bottom tier factory jobs there are starting at $20-$22 per hour, warehousing jobs with NO previous experience or forklift experience $20, the big company jobs are starting at $28 to $30 for the most basic jobs and for those with skill sets such as welding or electrical think $35 to $40 to start – and of course for those latter jobs your first pay raises will come quickly in addition to having great benefits packages)

    There is NO job shortage here in this part of the industrial midwest, the labor shortage is greater than before CV19 hit, but there is a shortage of people willing to work at the wages being offered, part of which is caused by the government being so generous with it’s “Unemployment” compensation schemes.

    One thing that is tending to hold back people in the more rural areas is DRUG TESTING. That holds back a LOT of people.

    YEP the bugaboo for those at the bottom of the barrel is Drug Testing. Failure rates on drug testing for the factory jobs is running about 80% I am told, some places with pay at the top of the new hire scale it is closer to 90%. Our local multi state utility that is trying to hire lineman, NO training required and as we all know an average pay in th $80,000/yr range with minimal overtime – “good” hurricane season and those guys make $150,000/yr, is having a drug testing failure rate up over 90% even though when the people come in they KNOW they are going to be tested.

    • those guys and gals need to get modernized – saliva/ tongue swap – drug test..only indicates Positive, if you Just used.
      Most tech companies ( that employee code kiddies) use the “Swap”
      – smoked a bone last ? no problem
      – young kids and some “blow”.. over the wild ass weekend at joey bribems – no problem – coke wont show up, and they Dont test for drenoCROM abuse.

      Seems to me if in U cant control Ure shit for 24hrs straight – you cant “handle” most jobs, cept maybe assembly work reserved for the mentally/physically challenged..perfect candidates for the Vaxx..

    • I just want to say a kind word about lineman. I’ve been to the school and I’ve employed a pair of gaffs a few times and let me tell you, friends and neighbors, it’s hard, dangerous work. The school is so hard, in fact, that it has a greater than 50% washout rate (I didn’t wash out).

      I know we owe first responders and medical folks respect for what they do, but the real unsung hero is the lineman. Without them the wheels would come off the bus and they would stay off and no first responder, medical personnel, politician, Hollywood actor or sports star could save us from the hell on earth that would ensue.

      If you see those guys out somewhere give them a word of thanks. They’ve earned it….and stay out of the way.

    • Yes, plenty of opportunities, but will they even consider guys in their 70’s, not that I need even more work in my life?!

    • Faurecia is opening a place in Highland Park, MI. I think it’s an automotive seat manufacturing operation. Assembly and forklift operators pull $13.50 an hour shift premiums for afternoon/midnight. Take home is $438 a week.

      The cheapest place to live nearby to this work in the area is $595.

      $595 / 1br – 850ft2 – Historic One Bedroom Apartment (Highland Park)

      The next cheapest place is $895.

      $895 / 1br – Fabulous One Bedroom That Is Pet Friendly @ Urbane Manderson 17505-14A (Detroit)

    • “There is NO job shortage here in this part of the industrial midwest, the labor shortage is greater than before CV19 hit, but there is a shortage of people willing to work at the wages being offered, ”

      Yup… there was a guy that moved to these parts because he heard there were a lot of good jobs… he got here then one day we were talking and he said.. I think I am going to move.. why.. well I came because there were a lot of jobs.. what no one told me is I would have to have a half dozen of them to make a living.. a twenty dollar an hour job will net about 800 every two weeks.. (If you don’t have health insurance or any other deductions. The wife gets a little better than that wage but the take home is just a fraction more. ) average rent is a thousand dollars.. so you work twelve days to make the rent.. then you have food.. for one.. that takes half of what is left.. car payment the rest plus depending on what car you are driving… leaving you short all the rest of the normal expenses.. Health insurance, car insurance, car maintenance, electricity, household gas, water , sewer, clothing, well you get it.. the rest of the story..
      Now your area pays a little better than here.. here average income is 9.50 -14.00 and that is even for manufacturing.. big box stores are starting out at 11.00 an hour.. no benefits.. average rent is just shy a thousand dollars outside the city . if you go way outside city limits you can get one at seven hundred .. plus and that is with federal housing. If you are renting from a slum lord you can get an efficiency no bedroom a single room and a shared bath for six hundred.. if you rent from a slum lord that same efficiency is 1200.00 plus a month…. When I was trying to talk the wife into giving the house to one of the grand kids.. and moving into an apartment.. I was looking at a 2 bedroom town house apartment for 1500.00 a month.. but what they provided was pretty good.. sewer and water, heat, basic cable and cable internet, garbage removal.. and renters insurance is a fraction of homeowners..
      Drug Testing.. Hmmm… they once thought that anyone that got food stamps had to be a drug user. . well out of all the people they had so few that tested positive.. when I worked in manufacturing.. they drug tested me.. first day on the job I went to check on an order at the loading dock.. there was the plant manager the exec, the line leads and the plant engineer all smoking a doobie.. I said seriously.. you guys drug tested me and my coffee drinking and you guys are all out here high as kites.. give me a break.. Now if you want to find drug users.. LOL go to the country club.. the crap costs money.. and people that have money feel that laws are only written for the class of society at the bottom .. mostly I think because they have the funds to fight it.. one really wealthy guy’s kid got caught with a great deal.. he didn’t even receive community service time..
      In the USA deviant behaviors of the wealthiest is just deemed fake news..
      but during the years I worked there.. there were a few that sold drugs rather than work multiple jobs to provide for their families..

      • “if you rent from a slum lord that same efficiency is 1200.00 plus a month”
        If that was a one bedroom.. that is what one person I know pays.. the place had only one small bedroom and a kitchenette holes in the walls etc.. her rent was 1250.00 a the rest of the expenses..

      • LOB.

        Yep. I posted the Highland Park employer. $13.50/HR gets a place in the ghetto. No car at $13.50. Public transportation or footmobile. Walking around in the ghetto shopping at gas stations and liquor stores for food because the ghetto is always located in a food desert. I’m sure some people mix-in a psycho roommate off Craigslist or a car that needs repair constantly and insurance.

        Here’s another example of “misleading job ads” I was typing about.

        The ad claims up to $45.00/hr assembling furniture “from companies like Wayfair, Walmart, and Crate & Barrel” for folks. You know that home-assmbly press board furniture.

        One wrong twist and the “Assembler” will be out the cost of an entertainment center. After the assembler leaves the customer will notice manufacturing defects, yet blame the assembler for improper assembly.

        Later some salaried hen at cooperate is calling the assembler about another bad job and apologetically notifies the assembler that the company is billing back for the job.

        What a mess. The topper is at the end of the ad, ” *Tips are discretionary and up to the individual customer”. Distilled it’s a begging gig building pressboard furniture. There’s no $45/hr at all!

        Here’s another.

        “Shop & Deliver with SHIPT! Earn up to $22/hr or more”

        So now we have a shopper pushing around three carts in a crowded store picking off shelves. One wrong addition/subtraction to the order or a rotten onion and the Karen customer will be on the phone to cooperate.

        Two minutes later some salaried hen at cooperate is texting, “Call me about the last order. Karen Kustomer is not happy.” Now the picker has lost focus of the picking at hand….

  5. When are we going to get it through our thick skulls. THEY DON’T MIND CAUSE WE DON’T MATTER. Did you take your bio weapon shot? Well you should do it for the good of Bill I’ll kill all humans Gates. We are marked for destruction! UT produced a paper saying the Shot was a bio weapon. Look it up yourself. Or read Dr. David Martin.
    P.S. To all you moms out there

  6. Ohhh noooo Mr Ure !

    tried to help- tip the “homegamers”, rooty tooted for TGB a while back – then again on these pages this week.

    What happened overnight, this AM that would drive a big price increase in 1 day ?

    Dr Copper is yelling at the top of his lungs – inflation is here biggly, will only get worse – before it gets better – as J kerPOW! is hammering down on the printing presses ..$1 trillion, $2 trillion, $3 trillion, $4 trillion – wait , hold the presses creepy bribem – human rutabega hisself wants $6 trillion..$10 trillion, $11 trillion, $12 trillion, $13 trillion – Ure seeing where this is going, no?

    Dr Copper is Bid 4.72 at noon 5/7/21 – a new all time high..

    And Mnuchin ASSURED US the was still GOLD in Ft. Knox – hahahahahahhahaha

    Wanna Bet ?

    Anyone ?

    • At least something is making sense. My mining stocks are starting to move in the right direction. Got my hand on the ejection lever, though. Hope it works before we hit the wall.

  7. how can it be that so evil knows no limits . now they goosed the yellow dog market 2 . ahh well more pain for the sane . veges are on fire . so smart so gurumatic world . hope theres no mushrooms on the dark weekend . id be real upset

  8. the lowest form of countries ever seen . worse than any facist, dictator , or empire of sin . ohh yeah it includes my sheethole of cesspool lies australia . but you blokes take the cake in evil sheet . i never read or saw such evil . 2 much to beleive . god where are you ? why do you let this go on ?

  9. “This video is unavailable” is the dead link I get at the Goldberg piece. Any other mirror sites? Thx for trying though!

  10. “U.S. supports Ukraine against Russian aggression…” ??????????????

    That’s were you lose me ;-( — because these entities are only in (nonthinking) peopleminds who will get it all wrong in the end because of it.

    (Germany was not the problem; Hitler was!!)
    (Soviet Union, not the problem; Stalin was!!)

    Behind events are “real” people and not US, UKRAINE, RUSSIA, or EUROPEAN UNION.

    Citizens ought to point out TROUBLEMAKERS living among us and not repeat garbage, IMHO.

    • Indeed George! “Good journalism” should ferret out “the troublemakers” within each country’s own ranks and not hide behind entities like: US, UKRAINE, RUSSIA, EUROPEAN UNION, CHINA, words designed just to camouflage nefarious activities “before the public catches on.”

      I’m just too old to change any of it — but how about citizens writing letters to Congress to create laws that “will help maintain peace?”

      Like cancelling all agreements about military assistance for whatever reason! Don’t we have internal conflict enough? Thank YOU for the opportunity to express myself. ;-)

  11. Interesting this . Destroy your currency to run the world. Substitute with crypto and goosed yellow dog . Ahh well they pissed on the smart ones ages ago . Yep be crushed upright will be far better than kneeling to sin

  12. Thanks to george though . The only place a sane investor and non vegetable can express their sanity. I do not agree with anything he says economically but nevertheless it’s his game. He is probably the only guy in the whole of the sewer that attempts truth . All the gold cows , crypto freaks , currency , market gurus are paid shills. Thanks George

    • aint NOBODY the paying the bitcoin nazi to shill BTC – he does it for Ure own good, shelia..

  13. “The Biden administration is working its butt off trying to catch former Trump adviser Rudy in a legal snare:”

    They’re trying to neuter Rudy. The guy who throws the first punch wins the fight, 90% of the time…

  14. Why get a job when there is nothing to spend the money on?
    A good small pickup truck? ( 1990 nissan hardbody equal ) NOPE.
    A health vegan meal ? Not in my 500k metro area.
    A trip to england?
    I wake up with $100 to spend each day. I go to bed with $ 90 unspent.

  15. Rail Car Loadings need to be adjusted for the MUCH lower coal loadings due to the permanent change in electrical generation changes in the United States. They also need to be adjusted for the auto production problems which are creating fewer shipments of new autos.

    For heavy coal carrying railroads such as Burlington Northern and the old Norfolk & Western division of Norfolk & Southern both have suffered car loading drops of 25% to 40% of their overall total loadings over the last 5 years or so as electrical generation stations continue their quick closures of coal burning power plants. I don’t recall the numbers off the top of my head but for some reason a 40% drop in B&N car loadings from MUCH lower coal loadings (from the HUGE Wyoming strip mines – which makes sense with the fact that layoffs are really bad in those mining areas) sticks in my head. Those old coal plants are being retired a very quick rate.

    In my area our multi state utility (AEP – serves 11 states) had dropped from producing about 70% of it’s electricity from coal to about 45% with further large cuts coming in the next 5 years. Natural Gas is a MUCH CHEAPER fuel source than coal today for generating electricity. The new Natural Gas plants are quick to be permitted and to build in addition to requiring much less capitol to build … and the actual plant operation is MUCH cheaper (fuel is cheaper per BTU generated, no need to physically move tons of coal hourly, no need to run huge high maintenance scrubber units (which suck about 10% – 15% of the electricity generated to run), and no need to dispose of the tons of fly ash and left over limestone created hourly)

    I would imagine if you would delve into the details of the car loadings excluding coal and autos the freight loadings are actually close to what they were prior to the CV. I do know there is a HUGE SHORTAGE of carrying capacity out of the West Coast Ports, and it is not just car availability (pricing has tripled), but they have also hit the trackage limits coming out of LA heading east for virtually all routes and are having to route trains to less direct routes. (ditto out of Oakland and Seattle I believe). There are also spot rr car shortages for most categories (excluding coal and new vehicle carrying cars) on the east coast. That indicates to me railroad shipments are very strong, not weak.

  16. To add to my comments about electrical generation: (coal is shipped by RR, gas is shipped by pipeline)

    2007: 2,016 billion KWH
    2018: 1,149 billion KWH
    2020: 774 billion KWH
    (current decline rate 188 billion KWH/yr – 2021 projected generation amount 586 billion KWH – – by 2022 coal usage will have been cut by 75% compared to 2007)

    Natural Gas
    2007: 897 billion KWH
    2018: 1,469 billion KWH
    2020: 1,617 billion KWH
    (current rate of increase 74 billion KWH/yr – 2021 projected generation amount 1,691 billion KWH)

    • I love coal. Use it all the time.. I actually have to get a load of it..coal is efficient cheap the last load we bought was 20 dollars a ton and if you re-burn the exhaust its relatively Clean.. the cost is in the shipping.

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