Jobs: The Hype, the Data and here’s the sausage.
I had to put on my “eye muffs” this morning to filter out the BS about how “Economy expected to add one million jobs in April.”
Well, bubba, here’s what really happened:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other services, and local government education were partially offset by employment declines in temporary help services and in couriers and messengers. .”
That there would be some gains had been baked in after the ADP report – especially when taken with a post-pandemic low in Job Cuts announced Thursday. But, this is a miss by a country mile.
Only a few numbers in the jobs report matter: For us, the total number of people working last month, compared with the same number a year-ago makes sense. But let’s not overlook the December 2019 Total Employed count. 158.803 million. November of 2019 was also strong: 158.596. And just so you have it at hand, in April of 2019, the number of American’s working was 156.696-million. 151.176-million working in this report? GMAFB.
Last point to keep in mind as we assess today’s report? A year-ago (2020) in April, the pandemic was grabbing. So the number of people employed was 133.403-million. My point being that (if you remember now denominators and numerators work) that witless politicians will claim a massive gain from year-ago employment levels. But 2-year ago levels may be lost in the hypenstance.
The Gains were ‘Made-up’
Now, our two numbers that matter most:
- Total Persons Employed: 151.176 million. STILL about 5-million fewer working than in April of 2019. (Yes, statistically ignorant people can’t go back more than a single pandemic influenced year, but we grown-ups can…)
- Number of Jobs ESTIMATED into existence in the CES Birth-Death Model. Which is piped into the total employed assertion:
OK, the claimed gains were “more than 266,000.”
But as you can see, 298,000 jobs were “ESTIMATED into existence” by the CES Birth-Death Model.
Adult men unemployment was up 3-10th’s of a percent.
Table B says goods producing jobs dropped 16-thousand. So services and the shopkeeper economy is keeping this puppy going.
Government employment was up 48,000 – explains why taxes are going up, huh?
After the number the Dow dropped 50-something. But the hype in the broader market continues. Hard to beat free money, right?
But the REALITY is the stock market is in a super-bubble. Because measures like our Aggregate Index show that in April of 2019 – the pre-pandemic market was 25,074.26. Yesterday’s close was 37,313.50. That a an increase of 48.8%.
That’s increase is not due to “American Exceptionalism” (except maybe when comes to hype and BS). It’s due to the “feral” government wildly printing money, hoping no one will notice that the “Emperor has clothes, but has no Net Worth.”
Americans have terrible memories. Stocks up 50% while total employment on a two-year basis is still down about 5-million just doesn’t make sense.
The problem shows up in other statistics, as well.
Take this week’s Rail Time Indicators report from the Association of American Railroads. Proudly proclaims:
Yet, when we go back not one year but two, how was traffic doing in 2019? Here’s what they reported in May of last year as the pandemic was setting in:
Which means? 2019 traffic was 1,310,228 carloads if my calculator is warmed up.
Which means the present rail run rate is on the order of still down around 30% below 2019 levels if my thinking cap is still on. Fits with total employment being down, doesn’t it?
Right tune for the occasion seems to be Donovan’s “Roots of Oak” – since we’re focused on “facts, figures, and logic…“
Kinda hard to roll with, though, when the tide is running “Lore, legend, and magick…” It’s how socialist insurgencies run, I suppose.
You can either open up your personal F-stops a bit or live in the information manipulation dark age. Your call.
Financial markets are a lot like the “Spouse from Hell.” No sooner do you actually get something done, than the whining begins afresh about whatever is “next on their agenda.”
Jobs are done…in the can. Next week? Aye, there’s the rub. Inflation data with the CPI coming Wednesday.
Our Aggregate Index for the past couple of weeks looks like this:
You’ll see there’s a bolded reading in the lower middle with a box around it. Until we bust above this level on a closing basis, I won’t be too anxious to “go long” but at the same time until we bust under the 37,000 level, we’ll keep Chicken Little penned up, too. Later today? We’ll see.
There’s no point in “playing on the financial freeway” blind-folded. We have a (misnamed) “Federal” Reserve that is holding data about the nation’s M1 and M2 money flows secret until the information is old enough to be useless.
Next week the news flow will tell us a lot more about our collective future. The Consumer Price Index is unwrapped next Wednesday while the NFIB Small Business optimism index will be out Tuesday. Unless you’re like our pal “Don Bondi” in Houston, make this a three-day weekend.
With the 10-year at 1.56 percent, will we see it begin to climb now? How will that roll into stocks? My thinking is gravity rules but I’ll sit on my wallet for a while longer.
War’s Still Coming
Don’t be so impatient!
Yes, all the concerns of G.A. Steward – scribe of all things Nostradamus – are falling into place. And after meetings in Europe over the Orthodox Easter, all’s still “locked and loaded.”
The Biden administration is working its butt off trying to catch former Trump adviser Rudy in a legal snare:” ”
But off in the background, you did notice “Blinken: U.S. supports Ukraine against Russian aggression – UPI.com?”
Goading of the Putski into action? We’ll see. Is Euromaniacs in the dick-shun-airy yet?
BTW, don’t know how deep you are into music, but did you ever hear the Al Stewart song Nostradamus from way back in the day? Try YouTube over here… (Long cut , 9:44 so start with a fresh cuppa…)
Out West, China’s still going reunify Taiwan. So tackle “Pressure and pineapple wars: Taiwan fears quieter Chinese threat as U.S. warns of invasion (nbcnews.com)” Then move on to what could be a real-life Weather Wars story: “Taiwan rations water, drills extra wells amid record drought – The Washington Post.”
Oh, and here comes another Buy’ed Em sell out of American interests: US weighs unfreezing $1 billion in Iranian funds. Gee, I don’t look surprised, do I?
No Climate Disaster – Yet
Instead, we are continuing the warm up phase of solar Cycle 25. But, in the longer view of other data, you can see how we will likely roll back to weather of the early 1800’s..
This from the latest NOAA Solar Cycle Projection. You do remember blizzards from this period? The roll of multiple “hotter than normal” cycles is circled in yellow and is the inception point for climate hysteria.
There’s a loose case for major blizzards on the upswing of sunspots so we’re half-way planning on an interesting winter to come.
Of course, we still also have our finger’s crossed that Elaine’s second hip replacement and following physical therapy will be substantially done before the world blows over…or freezes over.
There’s a reason the Soviets were big on their “Young Pioneers” and why Hitler had a “Hitler Youth” division in propaganda. So do pay attention to “First grade parents shocked after transgender book: report.” Get ’em while they’re young? Any “straight” marketing sextbooks or would that be a little too much equality among the ignorant Woke?
Schools bribing in Covid shots: “New Jersey university offering students up to $1,000 COVID vaccine incentive.” We think there’s room for a class action suit in Washington State where two state schools are demanding a vax cert or no attending…
Oh, long as we’re perusing the lying socialist cretins “AOC says Planned Parenthood promotes births, saves lives.” PP promotes births? Maybe AOC means “out of cranium.”
Buying Off Liberal Do-Gooders: Biden Aides Quietly Say His Tax Increases Would Help Charities.
Outdoor idiocy? How far will the healthstapo go? Grand Canyon 153-person hike organizer from Washington state facing federal charges | reports Fox News. Nothing out of the ordinary, though as public lands become increasingly off-limits and non-public.
Do as we say, because “we’re special” dept. Ohio state senator seen driving during video meeting on same day that distracted driving bill is introduced.
Something for Your Brain
Beats hell out of wild “beer reviewed” internet sourcing…
Back to the garden – Peoplenomics tomorrow and Sunday Shop Talk here the following day.
Write when you get rich,