Although the markets are continuing to present “normalcy bias” numbers, the emerging – and long-expected – reality around here is that Nassim Taleb’s book “Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto)” was less than half-right.
It’s a position I took a good number of years ago. Mentioned on the Peoplenomics side. But, mostly I shut-up when taking on sacred cows of the woke and happy-talk followers.
Today? Ure spouts. Not because Taleb was wrong (as far as he went). It’s just his book missed the reality of physicality. That ugly law saying ” f = ma.” In other words, force equals mass times acceleration.
You see, the way we think around here, “Antifragility” may be seen as “acceleration.” And true to his book, antifragility has wrought a huge change wave that is sweeping the planet as we have watched.
The problem? Well, all obvious in our (choose one): hick, red-neck, backwoods, country, traditional value, reductionist way of thinking.
All Movement Spawns a Ledger
Taleb’s core concept of “antifragility” is great. But it’s a bit “flat-lander” to us. Because while it’s a semi-truth that crypto-currencies are a middle-finger to government financial regimens, their “Creation Spawned a Ledger.”
When I say “ledger” it’s really in a general use-case. A “ledger” of land ownership may, for example, result in something small like a local tax levy.
At the next higher level, absent tax payments, a county may issue a “tax lien” on property – which is not paid – results in a change of ownership.
To clearly understand the “fragility amplifier” effect, however, we need to be clear that people who have property seized by tax collectors will, on occasion, try to “square their ledger” by resorting (since they have no money) to “direct action.”
Depending, then, on the level of resource and order of the tax victim’s thinking, the result may be (low side) a swing at – and subsequent arrest for – when a local sheriff’s deputy “stands by” during an adverse possession event.
In an extreme case, we escalation to physical violence.
From an accounting standpoint then, we can look at the small “a” (accelerant in our formula) and see that it is often – in turn – itself a product of money and violence (or threat thereof).
Oh, and at a higher level, adverse property possession actions (fueled by “a” with subcomponents [money X (threat of) violence] equals WAR. Because that’s what’s going on in Ukraine this morning. Where Russia has seen a buffer state “adversely possessed” by the West and an installed puppet government installed.
When looked at – using our “adverse possession template” – we see how “Blinken assures Ukraine during high-profile visit | Fox News” would be analogous to the sheriff’s deputy at a tax repo calling for back-up.
Human activity scales in templates. A thinking tool that has served me well over a lifetime.
Force (and threat to use it) amplifies the war outcome probability. If you’re following…
The Crypto “Fragility Amplifier”
Using this same “fragility amplification template” then, we can see how the crypto “idea” has also spawned a “War to Come.”
It’s just that people who don’t use “ledger-keeping” as a predictive tool, nor do they (often) look ahead to outcomes, miss the inevitable “showdown” between crypto currency and sovereign nation fiat systems.
Which gets us to the first (and what should be a very useful lesson) of this morning: We expect that just as “gold and silver” were both “called” during the last Depression, so too are we likely to see “cryptos called” as what we’re in right now unravels.
Unlike a simple “adverse possession” however, both the tax victim and the sheriff’s deputy are crooks who can’t be trusted.
While the tax victim role (played by the crypto users) claim “rights and freedoms” the sheriff’s deputy analog *(the US Fedgov and its private Reserve) are making up “funny money” so fast that even the Secretary of the Treasury – and a former Fed Boss herself – has no idea what’s going on. If you doubt it, go read Yellen Says She Isn’t Predicting Higher Interest Rates – WSJ and the knock on of the “sheriff’s counterfeiting scheme’s ledger as the U.S. Treasury warns of need to deal with national debt limit (apnews.com).
Which neatly delivers us to the first point of this morning – but it’s a key one:
Antifragile was a very good start. Thing is, as complexification (driven my monetizing madness) evolves, the Antifragile “action or acceleration” eventually results in the use of “force” when the object of initial action (government money corruption) reasserts both its exclusivity and primacy.
Depending on country where such corruptions have happened in the past, we’re than headed for mass conflict which could be a Chinese Red Guards kind of outcome. Or, a U.S. government Scotia line of cases that began to pry open secret bank accounts. Zimbabwe? Venezuela?
We’re prepared to score it: Taleb (1), Ure (2).
That is: antifragility spawns a countercurrency (Taleb-like point 1). Which leads to a challenger’s growth (Ure point 1) and eventually a (potentially violent or threatening) showdown (Ure point 2).
Oh, and Yellen gets a “0” because Inflation Risk Intensifies With Supply Shortages Multiplying (yahoo.com).
Again, we are seeing the pattern: Initial antifragility (like Fed intervention) followed by acceleration. Which will then lead to a (larger crash) when people (besides our readers) discern antifragility may not actually buy you anything but time and additional complexity in the future.
Stories like IMF warns global tax deal ‘urgently needed’ to avoid potential trade war | TheHill tell us that one of the first fallout wars will be over trade. The mushroom sort will follow, as we see it. There’s just not enough “cover” for all the crooks who will be caught out in this one.
Ever see a “global convulsion” before? That’s the likely scale when all the “fought fragility” actions come home to roost.
Job Cuts Extreme Low
As we watch the Fed’s antifragile turn into the Crack Up Boom (*and Bust weill follow – be patient) here’s more evidence of how Fed inflation will result in a consumption spike like none ever before:
“Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell 25% in April to 22,913 from the 30,603 announced in March. Last month’s total is down 96.6% from last April, when employers announced 671,129 cuts, the highest monthly total on record, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.”
Jobs for all? Well, we’ll see the Truth when the Federal number hits tomorrow – the real question is what will the total number of people working be measured-in at?
Still, money’s piling up: “The East Bay real estate market is so hot, houses are selling for more than $1M over asking price (sfgate.com)” Yee-haw!
And demand is screaming: Inflation Risk Intensifies With Supply Shortages Multiplying (yahoo.com).
Resulting in? Remember, ledgers matter now: “Grocery Prices Up Steeply From Same Time Last Year – WCCO | CBS Minnesota (cbslocal.com).
Whee! Are we having fun yet?
New Unemployment Claims Drop
Also on the financial heat map:
Productivity Jumps, too:
From Labor just out:
“Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 8.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.9 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.1 percent, reflecting a 1.1-percent increase in output and a 2.9-percent decline in hours worked.
Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2021, the combined effect of a 5.1-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 5.4-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 1.6 percent over the last four quarters, as hourly compensation increased 5.8 percent and productivity increased 4.1 percent. BLS calculates unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity. Increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor costs, and increases in productivity tend to reduce them.”
So thanks ERP, AI and 10th gen Octa core and up CPU’s…
Vaccines: Data and Dummies Dept.
Know where the Seychelles are? Indian Ocean. World’s Most Vaccinated Nation Reintroduces Curbs As Cases Surge (bloombergquint.com) So, you might want to ask yourself, if everyone’s vaccinated, then WTF?
Meantime, all the “hype and circumstance” is operating in ledger-like manner as sheep go where herded: U.S. birth and fertility rates drop to another record low, CDC says (cnbc.com). Which gets us to wondering “How much of CV-19 is accident and how much is a planned population reduction?” Tisk-tisk.
Yet, might that have some way of figuring into Slow Joe’s plea? U.S. backs waiving patent protections for Covid vaccines, citing global health crisis (cnbc.com). Or, is this just another way socialists and Obamanista holdovers plan to scuttle investment in new research? I mean if Slow and More can throw out intellectual property in one neighborhood, Medicine, what keeps them from going “city-wide” in the efforts? Especially if China holds us hostage for chips?
Meantime, we remember the old Yellow Pages positioning statement (“never stops selling“) when we read Moderna Reports That Booster Doses of Its COVID-19 Vaccine Appear to Be Effective Against Virus Variants in Time. Jab-a-nese is viral backed by megabux.
Notice the Following
Trust you saw where Derek Chauvin’s Attorney Files Motion For New Trial – WCCO | CBS Minnesota (cbslocal.com)? In-house odds here are the Court will go for a retrial. There’s just too much money and power to accrete from increasing America’s racial divide. It’s works to defund [local] cops which will set the stage for a [national police force] which gets us going down the Pinochet road. Then death squads and…but that’s a decade off (* hopefully!!!). We’ll see how “president Harris” handles power… But you did see where Arizona Border Patrol agents nab more than 1,600 migrants over the weekend? As it rolls, Defund is draining police ranks in places like Georgia where Atlanta police struggle to fill open positions amid violent crime spike. Cause-> effect, Seeing it, Bunkie?
Liars called out? Grassley accuses DHS of withholding information from the Judiciary Committee. Chuck, et al with “r” after their names figure the Buyed ‘Em puppets are hiding data about the border invasion. (Kinda like the Fed is hiding financial data so you won’t shite bricks over M1 money exploding.) All “nanny government” protecting you, Citizen. Stay in your lane, jab-n-mask and do as you’re sold….
George Soros: The PITA that keeps on giving. Latest example Investigation finds massive wrongdoing by prosecutor in case against ex-Missouri governor | Just The News. Who did Soros back?
I lost a bet with myself. I bet that NY Times – remnant of a once-great paper IMHO – would finally have a weekday morning when the leftards would finally go Trump-free on their web front page. Wow! Was I wrong. Used “Trump” 11 times this morning pointing to stories like In Turning on Liz Cheney, G.O.P. Bows to Trump’s Election Lies – The New York Times (nytimes.com). And other “daily bashes” like Facebook Ban Hits Trump Where It Hurts: Messaging and Money – The New York Times (nytimes.com). I’m trying to figure out how to monetize bashing the NY Times, lol.
Gotham in Wonderland continues. Keep Cuomo, please. And while Ure at it, look into how a 94-year-old Long Island woman mistakenly declared dead and loses benefits (nypost.com). Best government money can buy?
Around the Ranch
Zeus the [farm] Cat has been cozying up to the un-named female cat who’s been around the perimeter for a year, or so. She’s now taking breakfast off the 180-room. Zeek jjust watches politely till she’s done. Then cleans the plate. (I could take lessons, lol).
Got the tractor back in action after 5-hours of pulling 50-feet feet of antenna twinlead from around the whirling innards of the rotary cutter.
A bit over two weeks out from Elaine’s second hip replacement, we’re wondering what the 80s will bring if it’s already this much fun in the 70s.
Not that we look it: Ure’s attempt at age-reversal (or at least halting) based on using available supplements based on the 2019 article in Nature which cited a small study in California using HGH, metformin, and DHEA to extend telomeres. Speaking of which, did you know that this metformin link got more legs last year in Benefits of Metformin in Attenuating the Hallmarks of Aging (nih.gov)? While I don’t use metformin, I’m testing to see if berberines might have a similar (and over the counter) method of action… since my research revealed Metformin and berberine, two versatile drugs in treatment of common metabolic diseases (nih.gov). [This is not medical advice – and if you think it is, you’re an idiot.]
Especially interesting because of the increased incidence of diabetes found in people who’ve had CV-19 which (now I get paranoid) may have something to do with sugar metabolism. Which is why we’re still isolated thinking “People contact causes aging.”
Tomorrowing: Chris Tyreman’s Step0by-Step Millionaire will delve into how AI will wreak economic collapse. The “offishul” unemployment numbers will be along. We’re anxious to see how much of the expected gains are simply “made up” by being estimated into existence. And lumber prices hit a new all-time high which means I’ve scaled back my deck-making plans…
Write when you get rich,