Housing Data – Spinning the Border

Still UP – Just not as much as the S&P Case-Shiller Housing Data has cooled a bit:

“NEW YORK, OCTOBER 30, 2018 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2018 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in August, down from 6.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.1%, down from 5.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.5% year-over-year gain, down from 5.9% in the previous month.
Las Vegas, San Francisco and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In August, Las Vegas led the way with a 13.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Francisco with a 10.6% increase and Seattle with a 9.6% increase. Four of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending August 2018 versus the year ending July 2018.

Summing it up:

“Following reports that home sales are flat to down, price gains are beginning to moderate,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Comparing prices to their levels a year earlier, 14 of the 20 cities, the National Index plus the 10-city and 20-city Composite Indices all show slower price growth. The seasonally adjusted monthly data show that 10 cities experienced declining prices. Other housing data tell a similar story: prices and sales of new single family homes are weakening, housing starts are mixed and residential fixed investment is down in the last three quarters. Rising prices may be pricing some potential home buyers out of the market, especially when combined with mortgage rates approaching 5% for 30-year fixed rate loans.
“There are no signs that the current weakness will become a repeat of the crisis, however. In 2006, when home prices peaked and then tumbled, mortgage default rates bottomed out and started a three year surge. Today, the mortgage default rates reported by the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are stable. Without a collapse in housing finance like the one seen 12 years ago, a crash in home prices is unlikely.”

The market is somewhat disappointed – up only 35 on the Dow and down a bit on the tech side….

Crooked News, Selling Open Borders

As we wait for the manic markets to open (+76 an hour to the open), we notice President Trump is being pretty clear in his latest tweets on the caravan enroute our southern border.  Says the Twitter-in-Chief…

“Many Gang Members and some very bad people are mixed into the Caravan heading to our Southern Border. Please go back, you will not be admitted into the United States unless you go through the legal process. This is an invasion of our Country and our Military is waiting for you!”

Meantime, it has become clear to us that the left-leaning press has figured out that democrats have seriously over-played their hand again – just as they did in the Kavanaugh smear.

Before we get into the details, let’s look at how the media are “telling people what they want them to hear” – not the actual news.

A few sources will get you the gist of it:

Yet, when we read less left-leaning, democrat-partisan apologist views, what we read on non-US third party sites is  entirely different that this last minute “spin the for the middle.”

Take the Canada Free Press view: ” Invasion of the USS is NOT a Human Right.

Even Smith’s own Fox News admits in a different story that it all an “Migrant caravan appears to be moving northward faster, as crowds take advantage of free rides.” He ought to watch his own channel, maybe?

What most people, save UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics subscribers, don’t understand is that the Caravan and indeed the whole election is a difficult revenue maximization exercise.  If the NY Times (or Faux) don’t keep up the leftist-spin, they will lose eyeballs of the Trump-haters which is mainly an under 45, socially-addicted demographic.

I don’t usually call out The Associated Press for feeding into the decline of quality news reporting, but the latest The Associated Press Stylebook 2018: and Briefing on Media Law (Associated Press Stylebook and Briefing on Media Law) makes it pretty clear that terms like “illegal alien” is not suggested.

And this is where the AP, in my view, became partisan.  Because, dear reader, “illegal alien” is a legal term that has very specific meanings.  Like “8 U.S. Code § 1365 – Reimbursement of States for costs of incarcerating illegal aliens and certain Cuban nationals,” for example.

Yet, the dis-information and misinformation about this is all over the web.  Take, for example, a piece from Politifact that claims the term “illegal alien” doesn’t appear in federal statues.

As you can see in our cite above, it most certainly does.  So how could the Politifact story get it wrong?  It’s simple, actually.  If you look at the section they cited (Section 1364) it’s not used per se.  On the other hand, if you just look at the title of “8 U.S. Code § 1365″ it’s there bigger than life.

So, here”s the question:  Was the claim merely incorrect, fact-shopping, or data you can trust?  Personally, the latter is off my list, but you can see the point, I hope:

In fairness, Media Bias Fact Check rates Politifact among least-biased sources out there.  Yet this one looks wrong to us.  So, even without bias, errors and omissions – leading to incorrect conclusions – do occur.

Which is how – if you’re sitting in the Kremlin, trying to weaken America – you will so strongly value control of the language-space because it’s the key to making all the other attacks on your object of conquest workWords are bombs that go off between the ears.  Cheap, non-radioactive…its the gentlemen’s war.

And, importantly, it’s the one most-easily wrapped up in a disguise of righteous indignation and spews from the barricades…for those who lack deeper thinking processes.

Is it an invasion?  Are we “occupied?”  A Yale-MIT study of immigration (and modeling it) out in September offers this:

Our conservative estimate is 16.7 million for 2016, nearly fifty percent higher than the most prominent current estimate of 11.3 million, which is based on survey data and thus different sources and methods. The mean estimate based on our simulation analysis is 22.1 million, essentially double the current widely accepted estimate. Our model predicts a similar trajectory of growth in the number of undocumented immigrants over the years of our analysis, but at a higher level. While our analysis delivers different results, we note that it is based on many assumptions. The most critical of these concern border apprehension rates and voluntary emigration rates of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. These rates are uncertain, especially in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, which is when—both based on our modeling and the very different survey data approach—the number of undocumented immigrants increases most significantly. Our results, while based on a number of assumptions and uncertainties, could help frame debates about policies whose consequences depend on the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States.”

If you haven’t reached for the calculator yet, that means 6.8 percent of people in America right now (and able to vote in San Francisco in local elections for God knows what reason) are illegal aliens.

And that if, you’re too dumb to get it, IS an invasion in our view.  The OED being so old, doesn’t assign statistical probs to definitions.  Yet as AI comes along, they will have to, we think, because language use is highly probabilistic.

Just so we’re clear:  I embrace legal immigration, but not the coyote-run, black-tar smuggling along the dirt weed routes.   If America is to persist as the greatest country on earth, we need to continue the even and universal application of laws.  Something we’re failing miserably at for the moment.

Bye-Bye Anchor Babies

With all this as background, it should come as no surprise that president Trump is set to sign measures that would end birth-right citizenship for offspring of non-citizens (illegals) and those in the US without authorization.

Look for the open/non-existent border supporters to howl about it. Just in time to remind people before the election about the importance of evenly-applied law.

Attacking American Productivity?

As Time mentions: Give Up On Being Productive Today Because the Halloween Google Doodle Is Multiplayer Madness.

Great novel plot in this:  Left wing coup takes over country with a mindlessly addictive video game tied to social.  People can’t put it down, it’s so much fun.  And, as a result, the country falls.

What?  Not fiction?  Coming soon to a device near you?

Stocks Getting It Wrong

Yes, I know, the market had a 900 point swing Monday.  But the headline driving some of this (Stocks stumble as trade war nerves send yuan to 10-year low) shows how markets can get things dead wrong.  We have to apply some common-sense economics.  Follow me here:

If the Chinese Yuan drops to a 10-year low, what does that mean… I mean really?

Well, for one, it will take fewer US dollars to buy Chinese goods.  Cheaper phones, cheaper electronics and more… And THAT will reduce the Balance of Trade needs…and that is good for America and holds down inflationary impacts of the runaway Fed hikes.

Just saying…weak Yuans are (weak wan is if you’re with the GEO – grammar enforcement office)  not all the bad news the  financial press may claim.


Apple expected to unveil iPads with facial recognition… which frankly seems like a waste of disk space compared to fingerprint pads…but that’s just me.  Reinforces the idea that I won’t buy an Apple, though, unless I am assured my mug-shot for ID isn’t sold or given to the FedGov for the massive national personal database on each of us…  There is one…and where are the libs on this?

Monetizing Trump Hate

Facts support our claim that Trump-hating is an industry these days…

Although the NY Times biz section notes Trump’s Attacks on the News Media Are Working.

Not fast enough, though.

And Bad News for Cats

A new science breakthrough has found a way to use metabolism to drop 1/3rd of excess fat in obese mice in just 18-days.

Human trials are coming – put BP3 on your radar if you’re in medicine.

If you’re Zeus the Cat, don’t get depressed.  Losing a few pounds won’t hurt anyone…

Peoplenomics with the market view and such tomorrow – some come on back and bring 6.3-million of your closest friends….

21 thoughts on “Housing Data – Spinning the Border”

  1. Mark, yesterday, I was speaking of TIME TRAVEL. Can you travel back in time & place yourself in that iPhone video…NO. Just like your iPhone, the mind records past events that can be reviewed & learned from. But the mind views the video in the NOW, not in the past or future because they don’t exist. You, yourself, can only be in the NOW, you cannot travel back or forth in time because it no longer exists or hasn’t yet happened.

    As a sideline, your mind will allow you live in the past or future, if you want to drive yourself nuts. Time is used by your mind to control you, but if you live in the NOW, you control your mind & your destiny. Time can be relived in your mind, but only exists in the NOW. And, yes, tools like an iPhone video, can help the mind learn from the past & guide our actions, but only our actions in the NOW.

    You have a lot to learn, Grasshopper.

  2. How to cook perfect POACHED EGGS. Crack 2 eggs into a bowl being careful not to break the yolks. Boil water in a small pan. When the water comes to a boil, stir the boiling water so it becomes like a whirlpool. Pour the 2 eggs from the bowl into the boiling water. Let the eggs boil for 2 minutes. Prepare your plate with a paper napkin folded in half. This way you will still have room on your plate for toast or a English muffin. Remove the eggs one at a time with a slotted strainer spoon & place them on the napkin to complete draining. Flip the eggs onto the toast or muffins & enjoy.

    • LOL! I do it that way, but don’t add toast or muffin. Just eggs, and I use five.

      Preparing just two eggs is a waste of time. At my elevation, it takes exactly six minutes.

  3. John: Your comment yesterday missed what George is saying & offering.

    “Yessir, the next crash is always around the corner, next week or next month. Love the Elliot wave guys, with two counts, they are always correct, market goes up – see, I told you so. Market goes down – see, I told you so. LOL, what crock!”

    This is not an investment advice site, it is an information site for you to use or not use the information provided to make your own decisions. Remember, no one cares more about your money than you.

    In investing, the only thing that matters is the NOW. What do I do NOW?….BUY, SELL, HOLD.

  4. George

    “massive national personal database on each of us…”

    Control File, George, Control File!

    The difference is in the details, and usage.

  5. Pills that wipe out fat. They will cost money. So the fat in America will be poor. It’s already a thing in USA, the fatter the poorer. So when is the myth there’s a food shortage for poor people finally going to go away?

  6. The Migrant Caravan has already dissipated down to half of what it started out to be. They are over 1,000 miles away. Many have applied for asylum in Mexico. The rest will not be storming our border. They will be applying for asylum here as well. There is a plan in place.

    I have changed my opinion on this. I originally thought this was an invasion until I realized that this was just a political opportunity and rally fodder for Trump to con his base with. It’s all lies. A photo of a supposed Mexican police officer beaten by Migrants was re-tweeted a zillion times by the conservative media and followers…It was a hoax…it was a photo from October 2012 by photojournalist Gustavo Aguado.

    Here is what really will happen. By the way, the military supposedly going to the border will be just there as a prop for Trumps TV audience.

    The migrants will reach the border or designated port of entry to turn themselves in. If any do try to cross illegally, they will be apprehended, but will tell officials that they have a fear of persecution in their home country. That triggers an asylum interview. Many will be stopped outside the border in Mexico at a “limit line” or shuffled off to a Shelter Network on the Mexico side.

    These are people escaping a bad situation in their own country. Some will find solace in Mexico, others are determined to find it in America. Some will be allowed in, others will not be, nor should they be let in if they don’t follow the protocols.

    With tons of media coverage and camera’s everywhere on this, it will be impossible for any to actually sneak in.If for ratings purposes, a media outlet does film someone crossing illegally, it should their duty to report that directly to border patrol or face aiding and abetting charges themselves.

    It’s not a crisis by any stretch. There are no middle eastern terror groups hidden in the crowds. That’s crazy talk from our lying, deceitful, fear mongering President. This is how he whips up his base. It works. His base falls for it every time.

    It IS a humanitarian issue. It’s an issue that most of the western world has to deal with when it involves victims of a corrupt corrupt government that has sequestered it’s citizens.

  7. About monetizing Trump hate…When Trump decides to call a foe a name like Scumbag, Low Energy, Pocohantas, Failing NY Times, Crazy, Low IQ or dirtbag…it’s just Trump saying what is on his mind.

    When normal and well educated people call Trump on his Chronic BS, it’s hate, it’s monetized and Jumpin Jehoshaphat, it’s the fake media at it again…Our most dire enemy… Hmmmm. This is how dictators gain power.

    Sorry. Don’t buy that BS. We are all just calling it like we see it. Trump is dumb as dirt on real issues…and smart on fake ones he creates. He is an incredible con man…but a lousy and disgraceful leader.

    • “He is an incredible con man…but a lousy and disgraceful leader.” Perhaps?

      Mark, and all his predecessors were any different? Please name this one HERO!!

      • Bruno,
        This is another one of those patented Trump “But What About” statements. Two wrongs have never and will never make a right.

        I thought Trump was supposed to be different? Isn’t this why you all voted him in. He is not different. He is worse. He is a downhill, growing snowball of all of his corrupt predecessors rolled into one.

      • It isn’t about Trump — it’s about the “White Race” IMHO! Trump is the “Alpha White Male,” whether you agree or you don’t, and most “Whites” have an unonscious “death wish” demonstrated repeatedly throughout history. Caso serrado!

        P.S. Mark, please take note and think for a change in order to perhaps revise your opinion ;-).

      • I’m not so sure about a “white race death wish,” but there is definitely a global anti-white shaming agenda. EG s. Africa seizing lands and the shaming drives in the USA etc…That’s why it is so important to hve a showdown with an “invasion” force…it’s optics and it’s in color!

  8. “Words are bombs that go off between the ears.” Has someone mentioned this to the president?

  9. The word “yuan2” in Chinese is like the word “ren2”, in that it takes a great deal of practice to even pronounce it properly. The simplest words can be super difficult, such as “Yu2”. You need highly pursed lips with a partly open mouth, tongue forward just behind teeth and lower jaw somewhat displaced to pronounce it properly.

    That doesn’t even include adding the proper tone! I’m still working on trying to properly pronounce these words. Then there are regional dialects…

  10. George, somehow I just don’t see 1000 people walking a 1000 miles to apply for asylum much of a crisis. Maybe they’ll use the bathrooms too much?

    Rather, this is just a PROPAGANDA tool for the Right, inasmuch as ALL of their policies are a failure. Have to anger and distract all those low information voters from pre-existing conditions, tax cuts adding another 10% to the national debt (thereby driving up interest rates and trashing your dollar, again), tariffs killing off the Base’s businesses and jobs, etc. Ha.

    As I said before, a Wall (which a $20 ladder can defeat) and caging kids is hardly a solution. And if the Conservatives actually fix the problem, then they lose the very red meat to stir up and distract their angry base. Voter suppression works, just not enough. George, you just love conspiracy theories: You can put 2 and 2 together.

    I already told you how to fix YOUR sides goofy, invented problem. 1. Tighten up immigration laws (e.g., make it an automatic ‘waiver’ of asylum claims to enter illegally, etc.), 2. appoint more immigration judges (so the hearings are in weeks instead of years) and 3. impose much stricter penalties on employers (see, the Molly Tibbets murder case).

    You, in full-tilt, desperate apologist/cheerleader mode, replied Pelosi. But, again, the Conservatives control the ENTIRE government, and could get this through if they actually wanted to do so, like they did with Kavanagh. Best, Mike

  11. Want to point to all of you who seem to favor “Open Borders” that every time we admit someone new, illegally, into “America’s Hospital”, whether unborn, or adult, pushes another homeless person, or another person suffering from Serious Mental Illness further down into the ground. This is no joke.

    How do I know this for a fact? I am one of 8.4 million family caregivers of an adult with serious mental illness (SMI). (You can google this study.) I will spend the rest of life taking care of him. He’s 29. He had a break from reality at, right before he would have received his degree in engineering at 21. Caring for him is a full-time job, and then I go to work with others to help people in similar circumstances. I do this as a volunteer. Not because I looking for accolades … but because the needs are so great. And, I now understand them.

    What I simply ask of all you is to study for a moment the statistics on mental illness in this country. The number of youth who are grade school, right now. Study for one moment what mental illness is and its traits. (I did not know until my son’s fall.) Imagine for a moment that you cannot control you mind or your emotions. You see and hear things that are not there. Process this inconvenience into your thinking … up to 50% do not believe, nor do they accept that anything is wrong with them. it’s called anosognosia … and even the vaunted President Kennedy’s program would not have addressed this in his community care approach.

    What solutions has government offered under any administration (R or D) over the past 150 years? Why not …. because this population and its voluntary caregivers are at the bottom of the barrel. Near drug addiction. And, government is not the answer to all problems. Sorry. How often has this been proven in any kind of innovation? How about the invention of the plane, electricity, etc?

    If you want to take someone in, so badly … help them … there are millions here in the USA who are desperate for a conversation, coffee, someone who is not there parent. See COMPEER.

    Keep deluding yourself that America has unlimited capacity, if you it makes you feel good. But, this is not reality. And, yes, I do favor Trump. Not because of the man, his tweeting behavior, but because of the results. Stopping the utter madness of open borders and endless war and farming out our manufacturing. Has made no sense … forever.

    Here’s a novel idea … employ the 80% of people with mental illness who do not work .. to do something. ANYTHING!! Because they want to. How do I know this for a fact … I am been coaching a group for 4 years now. Only 1 of 4 was working when I started. Now, all are. And, we get through their re-hospitalization periods, which are inevitable … and cost a small fortune. My group barely makes it. But they do. They demonstrate incredible courage in have to keep suicidal thought at bay, constantly.

    I love George … but some of comments I read here, favoring taking in refuges, are nothing short of nonsensical. Use your brain, your heart, your soul and think of your fellow citizens for a change.

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