Just out is the monthly press release from Case-Shiller (S&P, et al) on Housing prices around the country. Holding their own…but….
NEW YORK, JULY 28, 2020 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2020 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.5% annual gain in May, down from 4.6% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 3.1%, down from 3.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.7% year-over-year gain, down from 3.9% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in May. Phoenix led the way with a 9.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.8% increase and Tampa with a 6.0% increase. Three of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending May 2020 versus the year ending April 2020.
The National Index posted a 0.7% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively before seasonal adjustment in May. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1%, while the 10City and 20-City Composites did not post any gains. In May, 17 of 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 11 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
“May’s housing price data were stable,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index rose by 4.5% in May 2020, with comparable growth in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively). In contrast with the past eight months, May’s gains were less than April’s. Although prices increased in May, in other words, they did so at a decelerating rate. We observed an analogous development at the city level: prices increased in all 19 cities for which we have data, but accelerated in only 3 of them (in contrast with 12 cities last month and 18 the month before that).
Now, have a look at this-here chart of actual prices for housing:
OK, look at the black line and see where prices were in 2005-2006. I’m eyeballing that as 178,000 for a home.
Now, let’s see what the inflation calculator says: It reports that as of 2019 – before the 30.876% jack-up on M1 in the wake of CV-19, the break-even would be $233,000 for the house.
And the May (black line) reading? I dunno, how do you eyeball that? $221,000?
Sure, a home is (so far) a better place to put your money than the bank, B U T…(besides being illiquid)…
Remember this is an apples to apples comparison and somewhere you have to in an honest accounting also remember back out the commissions, closings, points, advertising, fix-ups….and all the rest.
Now, when I do this? Sure looks to me like although housing hasn’t gone up much (and likely down in real PPP terms) owning a home is NOT the great deal it once was.
One reason? Property Taxes don’t usually get mentioned. These are real – gotta-be-paid costs that come with ownership – and the hard fact is that with the “cap” of $10,000 on tax deductibility, that’s almost certain to come down to “pay for the virus” and that will bracket people who still have homes UP into the gotta pay ‘cuz you can’t deduct…
Now, throw in the stupidity of “defunding police” and what becomes very stark is the anarchist/Marxist movement to turn the once proud Nation into a Venezuela wannabe…
But I suppose you figured all that out, Ureself….