Fresh Housing Data

Just out is the monthly press release from Case-Shiller (S&P, et al) on Housing prices around the country.  Holding their own…but….

NEW YORK, JULY 28, 2020 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2020 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.5% annual gain in May, down from 4.6% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 3.1%, down from 3.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.7% year-over-year gain, down from 3.9% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in May. Phoenix led the way with a 9.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.8% increase and Tampa with a 6.0% increase. Three of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending May 2020 versus the year ending April 2020.

The National Index posted a 0.7% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively before seasonal adjustment in May. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1%, while the 10City and 20-City Composites did not post any gains. In May, 17 of 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 11 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
“May’s housing price data were stable,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index rose by 4.5% in May 2020, with comparable growth in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively). In contrast with the past eight months, May’s gains were less than April’s. Although prices increased in May, in other words, they did so at a decelerating rate. We observed an analogous development at the city level: prices increased in all 19 cities for which we have data, but accelerated in only 3 of them (in contrast with 12 cities last month and 18 the month before that).

Now, have a look at this-here chart of actual  prices for housing:

OK, look at the black line and see where prices were in 2005-2006.  I’m eyeballing that as 178,000 for a home.

Now, let’s see what the inflation calculator says:  It reports that as of 2019 – before the 30.876% jack-up on M1 in the wake of CV-19, the break-even would be $233,000 for the house.

And the May (black line) reading?  I dunno, how do you eyeball that?  $221,000?

Sure, a home is (so far) a better place to put your money than the bank, B U T…(besides being illiquid)…

Remember this is an apples to apples comparison and somewhere you have to in an honest accounting also remember back out the commissions, closings, points, advertising, fix-ups….and all the rest.

Now, when I do this?  Sure looks to me like although housing hasn’t gone up much (and likely down in real PPP terms) owning a home is NOT the great deal it  once was.

One reason?  Property Taxes don’t usually get mentioned.  These are real – gotta-be-paid costs that come with ownership – and the hard fact is that with the “cap” of $10,000 on tax deductibility, that’s almost certain to come down to “pay for the virus” and that will bracket people who still have homes UP into the gotta pay ‘cuz you can’t deduct…

Now, throw in the stupidity of “defunding police” and what becomes very stark is the anarchist/Marxist movement to turn the once proud Nation into a Venezuela wannabe…

But I suppose you figured all that out, Ureself….

7 thoughts on “Fresh Housing Data”

  1. Local radio here in Detroit told me house prices should continue to rise for the rest of this year and we are to expect about an 8% decline in house prices next year.

    “defunding police”

    Did you notice the Portland police didn’t protect anyone against protesters until the protesters showed at the Mayor’s mansion. Then the police decided to protect the mayor.

    Defund it all.

    This is what Portland folk are funding:

    Three of the City’s Highest-Paid Employees Are Retiring—and Staying on the Job
    Such double-dipping became legal Jan. 1 under the terms of Senate Bill 1049.

    Three of the city of Portland’s highest-paid employees notified the Public Employee Retirement System they intend to begin drawing their pensions this month.

    “Stuhr, Jordan and Reeve say they only retired because SB 1049 also capped the salary on which pensions are calculated to $195,000, which would have cost them money.

    “I would not have elected to ‘retire’ at this time (as I intend to continue working),” Reeve says in an email, “but for the passage of the PERS reform legislation.””

  2. Looking for a rural home right now. Time to have a place that is over hill and through the woods where anarchists never go.

    It’s one thing to peacefully burn down federal buildings and attempt to kill federal agents in the big cities, quite another to march 100 miles across country to have a peaceful building burning and murder laced protest elsewhere.

  3. Give the cops — ALL the cops, everywhere — two months off with pay.

    Calmly await results.

    You’ll never hear talk about defunding the police again. Ever.

    Darwin? Cracking eggs to make omelets? Tough love? Insanity?

    (Really? Insanity? Whatya call what’s happening as it is now?)

  4. The last push by the corporate brown shirt elites and their political gang associates to seize control of all real property in the US, and reduce the US populace to serfdom has begun. The cover for the actions will occur when vast numbers of the working poor are forced into the streets by unemployment and eviction.

    The D’s are batting for the CCP-dominated leftists. The R’s are batting on behalf of the local elites, and for the European monarchists, who see their first real opportunity to seize control in US since the Civil War era. The independence of the American judicial system is an urban legend with no basis. Judges and their jackboots will enforce the war on the last lower middle class hold-outs. None are your friend. Local church leaders and brown-shirt business leaders lead the propaganda effort, coordinating gang stalking against resistance. This will be an uncivil stealth war on the last vestiges of the American lower middle class combining elements of all political fringe elements: left, right, center, religious and business.

    Once streets are clogged with homeless, the assault on the last hold-out resistance will begin.

    I expect that I personally will be left unemployed, homeless, penniless and gang-stalked by a combination of brown shirt eminent domain invasion, brown shirt SLAPP suit, and combined state-sponsored wingnut, brown shirt and religious vigilante gang stalking.

    My farm is being targeted for eminent domain invasion and destruction, with a European monarchist outfit sponsored by the state of Texas running the show. No substantive action has been taken against neighbors, so I am being subjected to the absurdity of a pipeline invasion by monarchists and their jackboots which starts and stops at the limits of my property, backed by a SLAPP suit. Another corporate sponsor is a known local OC outfit who I have tangled with in the past over gas-cloud releases, prior to the unrelated incident in the town of West.

    Direct assault on my person will likely be by gang-stalking vigilante dupes being fed false info by local law enforcement and private security, social media along with local religious and business sociopaths. In recent years, I have been targeted for gang stalking by associating my name with the name of a local parolee, who has a somewhat similar name, but is not related, and could never be mistaken for me. This gives a cover for serial gang stalking, despite the fact that I have passed the same background checks as Texas cops. Only leftist lawyers intervene in gang stalking, and my gender, ethnicity and political independence preclude any possibility of getting a leftist to bat for me.

    If your personal situation is deteriorating, just remember, it can get worse. Don’t roll over for any of it. Stand your ground, and go public if necessary. The opposition have less resources and time then they imagine.

    • @ n

      seems to me you have not addressed the elimination of those that are attacking you….fatal accidents happen all the time….and some happen to deserving types….since the system is set against you…and you will be left with nothing….as they keep telling us in this pandemic…”cleansing is the cure”…..might be true for many things..imo

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