It’s never hard to pack for a trip – just so long as you know  where you will eventually end up.  Then, it’s easy to see – amongst all your present gear – what will work when you get to the new destination.

You don’t pack too many sweaters for a trip to the Sahara.  And not too many short-sleeve golf shirts for a trip to Ice Station Zebra.  (With fond memories of other Clive Cussler and Alister MacLean  adventure novels.  Go ahead – toss in  Where Eagles Dare with Mary Ure, while Ure at it…Who, by the way, looks like Elaine in just a certain light…)

The effects of CV-19 are, I regret to inform, are only now just warming up.  Word that Spain may begin using firefighting air tankers to drop disinfectant on  major cities brings us around to the notion that while social distancing helps, it may not be the entire – nor sufficient – answer.

So what are we “packing for?”

While there are some indications that the spread in China is picking back up a bit, the chances of this being a bioweapon – not a naturally occurring virus – seem to have been increased.  The recent report in Air Force Times that the U.S. was bringing B-52 heavy bombers back from station at Guam is troublesome, to say the least.

Withdrawal of major warfighting assets from inside intermediate-range missile range from the PRC is not a good thing.  At some point, you read the happy talk and ask yourself “Is there a credible series of SERIAL COINCIDENCES that would put us on this path?”

How Ure Shaves the Odds

Admittedly, this gets into math-like thinking, but let’s give it a go:  If you have, say, half a dozen “close calls”, what are the underlying real odds and all coincidences?

Well, the first “odds” might be “Is this natural or man-made?”  The real evidence is above our paygrades.  But, let’s call it 51-49% odds in favor of it being natural.

But then, was China’s not bothering to sounding the (f%^&*ing) alarm, an honest mistake, or malicious intent?  Again, we are forced accede  to 51-49% outcome based on governments not being particularly well-run at all levels, at the same time.

But then, what about the advice early-on given to the president?  Was some of it sugar-coated?  Was some of it maliciously placed by operatives of a foreign power, or loyalists of the (take Ure pick:) Deep State, former Obamanista lefties, or just power-crazed people who were more interested in the politics than the science?

And then is the obvious bias of the Left-Wing media, not also another “accident or intent” call?  Again, we’ll generously use 51-49 that it is not, but again, it’s sketchy.

Then what about collusion between left-leaning (orchestrated) governors who operate their states as much to bash a president and his effort to enforce federal laws (like secure borders), because of the easy convergence of anti-American forces surrounding them.  They continue to press for Equal Rights for Non-Americans. Voting your tax dollars to support people who don’t pay taxes here…this is crazy, is it not?

Are these people evil and operating with intent?  Why, of course not..or so we’re reassured by the sycophant  press, .but in deference to facts and not hype, we’ll keep our judgment call close – at 51%.

And then to withdraw B-52s from  Guam…surely another “close call” because we don’t know what is going on in background.  Close is 51% to 49% because while we can’t state anyone’s intentions, what we can do is place their actions in a mathematical context.  Study up on “accident chains” and realize we’re in one!  Wuhan is an accident chain with new “facts” parsed out daily!

And is not Spain resorting to widespread city-spraying evidence of a bioweapon being in use globally?  No, of course not…but by the thinnest of margins – 51% vs. 49%.

Now the Big Math Lesson

Let’s line up the odds of getting here:

This being a natural virus:  0.51 – or 51%  We believe, but it was close.

China’s reporting delay being unintentional?  0.51 or 51%.  But now, notice how the pathing to present-day begins to shade.  Because 51% of 51% is?  26.01 percent.  In other words, only a 1-in-4 chance – roughly – that it was accident.

Next we ask was medical advice given Trump all straight and legit?  Again, 51% yes because to think otherwise would be paranoid, delusional, and so on.  But 51% or 26.01% brings the odds down to 13.27%.  In round thinking, this is about one in 8 that events are accidental and natural…beginning to get interesting, but not conclusive.

And the perfectly-timed media attacks on Trump?  All the media doing it’s job?  Well, 51% in that camp, but based on  the T-Bashing 49% isn’t maybe that far off…today’s punk journos are mostly from the left-wing J-school’s preaching “advocacy journalism” and “human interest” training where clean, inverted pyramid was bannished and bias has become its replacement.  We don’t need to be paranoid to notice 6-corportation with Chinese interests run American news.  It would be paranoid to think this, so we won’t, but, again,  by a razor-thin 51% again.

Problem is, that 51% of 13.37% gets us down to 6.756%.  Which begins to wander over toward the “highly improbable” side of things.

But then there’s the Spain aerial disinfection spraying – classic biologicval warfare response.  Clever use of existing technology?  Just 51% versus the 49% that it’s using the technology of aerial spraying for a bioweapon.  And that moves us from 6.756% down to just 3.45%.  Less than 1-in-25 that all is as it’s been presented.

Stockyard smells abound, now.

Let’s See into Future

We will have to take China at its long-term word:  They will reunify with Taiwan – and in our understanding of how the patient Asian mind works, the last “surprise” possible would be a bio-breakout – masked as a new strain – appearing in Taiwan.  That would cue China to enter on the basis of “Humanitarian Relief” and at the same time, be able to snatch up those micro-level surface-mount component makers without a shot to damage critical alignments of equipment.  Yet, this has not happened.

If it did, the odds of the initial release NOT BEING round one in a biowar, would have to be judged down around 1/2 of 3.45%, or 1.76%.

And that’s how Ure’s thinking rolls out, for those who have never followed it over time:  Fool me once and it’s 50-50.  Twice is 75-25.

And I didn’t throw in the mix all the bullshit whining about how the press “worries about slamming Asias as people…”  Is that whining all pure as the driven snow OR is it a further information battlespace manipulation?

Careful how you answer this one because I’m in the 51% range in my thinking…and that would put “accidental release” down in the  0.8976% range.  And like trading the markets, I come pre-loaded with certain hair-trigger responses:  When the odds of something drop under one percent, I’m ready and braced for action.

Bottom Line?

We live in a world where the Western economy is about to blow up.  All China needs to do is bide its time.  Compound interest, cellular biology, and social media stupidity will finish the job.  They will have fewer people – less mouths to feed and recovery efforts in China will finish the building-out of their Middle Class transition.  Subminiature electronics in Taiwan will be icing on the cake.

Just as amplifier noise factors are additivie in high-frequency radio receiver design, so too, represented odds on  singular data point are not the “whole ball game.”  Not in a serial news event.

News outcomes are like combined receiver noise floors:  Just as the noise is  additive, so too, the odds of events being “coincidental”  stack the other way.

We are not “there” yet…and I won’t give you all of my personal percentages for each “stage” of this “pseudo-natural” outbreak.  Run your own numbers.

What I can tell you is that an intelligence analyst will look at the longitudinal data as well as specific “blips” and confess that while each blip  sounds legit, when you string enough of them serially, a pattern appears and that goes to intent.

This is why the FAA insists pilots understand accident chains.  The Public doesn’t.

Fear not:  The Fifth Column press – attacking Wuhan Virus as racist – is simply doing what the Fifth Columns do.  But we don’t worry about such things nor question whether we’re being paranoid.  In not a single instance did we refute anything but official narrative.  Yet, when the accident chain is followed, you can see how mathematical certainty leads to a Conan Doyle-like outcome.

Because as somewhat math-literate, I can be a 75%  Believer in the Packaged Goods Narrative .  But after three, serially, and interconnected?  In my world that’s a 42.1875% chance of things being as they seem.

Make your judgements, run your number, but do remember,  Serial Events are additive!  And Wuhan Virus continues adding up in a very worrisome way.

Write when you get rich

george@ure.net