CV19: Monday Effect + Fed Learns Money Buys Time…

With the Price of Oil crashing to lifetime lows, it has become apparent that the Fed has seriously screwed-up and does not understand what happens when hyper-deflation (here at the bottom of the economic long wave cycle) runs into hyper-inflation as demanded by compounding effects of interest on the federal debt.  And egged further into super-nova territory by $600-trillion worth of financial derivatives which are beginning to blow up.

Now the gory details…

On Oil

My youngest daughter called Monday to ask “Dad, are you watching CNN?  What happens when the price of oil goes NEGATIVE?”  Smart kid, smart question.

The answer is that some high-rollers, who don’t understand “time-value” and the urge of market-makers at the Chicago Board to Trade to Bankrupt anyone wandering by, and who misjudges the future, will promptly lose their asses.  To wit: Monday.

On the other hand, the forward contract, June, is trading this morning down, again to the $15.57 range for West Texas Intermediate.  My consigliere and I were discussing just this dynamic earlier Monday as in certain trades, producers were paying to have people take delivery of oil.   Better than FREE!!!

One of the Kings (Tabitha or Stephen) could write “The Patch” and it would scare anyone who’s ever dabbled in oil futures…

Can you see the remake of the old TV show “Dallas?”  Only this time set in The Woodlands which is the Houston area’s answer to Mecca for oil…and where property taxes  are already over the 3% per year range.  The series would follow the misadventures of an imploding Texas muni bureaucracy when all their wet-dreams of power collapse with empty oil company campuses and no muni worker pensions left after going BK….(Oilman2 is living this in The Woodland and ought to be able supply details (and whole episodes) as the meltdown rolls along…)

Playing out in Midland, Texas,, too.

Bottom Line #1:  Deflation is here.  Your Lifestyle has just collapsed.  Nail salons are NOT essential services.  But, the Trumpster knows Depression is here if we don’t get back to work May 1.  (All this was explained month’s back in February’s “Xi’s Quandary” where the Chinese faced the same “Health-versus-Wealth” post-Wuhan call.  In Depressions, the bad choices just keep “making the rounds…”

Did The Fed Buy ONLY Time?

Lookie here:  Remember the Oh Great Ben Bernanke discussion about how the “new tools of monetary policy “were Oh so marvey?”  To quote from the Blog o’ Ben:

“Central bank purchases of longer-term financial assets, popularly known as quantitative easing or QE, have proved an effective tool for easing financial conditions and providing economic stimulus when short rates are at their lower bound. The effectiveness of QE does not depend on its being deployed during a period of market turbulence.”

Gushy?  Methinks, yes, t’is a bit…especially since:

Ure’s Depression Replay Notes, (volume 20, chapter 4, verse 21) clearly states as follows:

“When quantitative easing is deployed under normal circumstances, it will [usually] drive up prices.  HOWEVER when deflation is over-powering, throwing QE into anything will not REVERSE PRICE – IT WILL ONLY BUY TIME.”

(huffing on the white board marker, Prof. Ure quickly sketches up how the evolving Depression compares with the previous one (1929-1941 which ended with Roosevelt forcing Japan into a War in the Pacific which drove the U.S. workers to win-or-die recovery):

]

(Another huff of the marker and Ure continues…)

“Ya’ll look at the red arrow which lines up the bottoms of the first waves down in 1929 and 2020.  Now, look at the right red arrow which attempts to line up the next top (top of Wave II under Elliott rules).

“Now we posit as follows:  What the Fed bought was simply the increase in time for Wave 2 to complete (big black arrow ).  As any fool can see (*or I wouldn’t have) we were going to head back down to –  at a minimum – retest the previous low.  So all we did apparently was “buy some time” between the 1929 Wave 2 High (10/04/1929 was the Wave 1 low while 10/10/1929 was the Wave II high – so five trading days, lingering into six in 1929).

Whereas in the present case, our low (of Wave 1 down) was April Fool’s Day, and for now, the Wave II high was April 17th.  That’s 12-trading days.”

A Formula for Ben

Now comes the useful part:  What does it all mean?  No quantitative easing and the onset of the 3rd Wave down took 5-trading days in 1929.

Round numbers, but $4-trillion, let’s call it in 2020, took the Wave 2 rally up to 12-trading days for 5 (and maybe 6) in the last collapse..

Thus, the wild nutjob in the woods of East Texas proposes that when the market is “selling time, not price” at the cost of about $4-trillion dollars for each  (12-5=7) 7-days of time.

To my simple mind, it comes down to a choice:  How many days do you wish to spend $571,428,571,428.57 per day to keep The End from arriving? 

(No provision for market learning and resulting multi-agent model nonlinearities arising in the Fed’s DSGE models as a result…)  Each of us – still working with jobs, about 125-million still employed – can easily paper this over by donating just $4,571.43 per day EACH to a not-really-Federal reserve near you.  Otherwise, Coriolis Effect, baby, we’re flushed…  Say, you don’t think toilet paper disappeared to print up financial instruments, do you?

“The What did you call it?”  Oh, the Fed uses a DSGE Model….and although I can’t be certain, I don’t  believe that their model includes provision for “context switching” of market reaction between  buying price changes on the one hand, and  buying time, on the other. Bet thjey missed that. I will have to go reread how the FRBNY works its DSGE woo-woo…and if you’re interested:

The goal of this paper is to present the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and used at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper describes how the model works, how it is estimated, how it rationalizes past history, including the Great Recession, and how it is used for forecasting and policy analysis. “

My simple point (for all to behold in wonder) is that just as in aeronautics, there is, with power on, nose up, a configuration called “reverse control authority” where the controls work “backwards” – so too, in economics (and dating) things don’t go “like they should.”

If the DSGE Model doesn’t account for triggered (AI learned) context-switching between buying price or buying time, then the model will lead us to a (*nearly here) Wreck of the Ship of State on  the Rocks of Assumptions.

But that’s OK, because it will happen to everyone and once collapse begins to run away from you… well, this is how Tuesday looks.

Say, did I mention oil just did that and $600-trillion in derivatives (many times the World’s GDP) are also operating in La-La Land now and when “continuous settlement” of derivatives fail, then the worst nightmares of my late friend Dr. Paul Erdman will be visited upon  the Earth?

I learned more from drinking lunch at the old Palm Court at the Seattle Westin back in the day with Erdman than most business majors learn in a lifetime.  Erdman’s book The Crash of ’79  is to the “finance side”  what  Stephen King’s book, The Stand is to the pandemic side.  Erdman had – to make it comprehensible to the young – the  “mind of a Raymond Redington” (on the right side of the law), but in finance….you see the point?

“The entire essence of America is the hope to first make money — then make money with money — then make lots of money with lots of money.” – Erdman

Maybe I’ll be wrong – and I sure wouldn’t bet a country on my being right – but I’d sure look at price/time context switching as an overlooked dynamic in DSGE models. 

Just like in energy studies where you get “context switching” between gas and coal fired electricity – depending on a few variables, so too, you buy some mix of price and time…  more on the technical aspects in  Peoplenomics tomorrow.

FWIW, I’m not the only one seeing disaster coming along shortly.   Go read “To ‘V’ Or Not To ‘V’ – $180 Billion Asset Manager Warns “The Fed Knows Less Than They Think”

NSS.

Virus: The Monday Effect, AGAIN

Here ‘s another example of how “You don’t need to be smart, but you need to ask smart questions…”

I forget whether it was here, or on  Peoplenomics , where I asked the question “Is there a Monday Effect in Covid 19 data?  See the green oval in the data through yesterday off on the right?

The green ovals are Mondays.

My  theory – and I’m a nutjob, remember – is that the reason there is a Monday Effect is less spread on weekends than when people go to work, engage in commerce and otherwise contaminate one-another.  Nail saloning on the road to Die-Off.  Did the Bible get it  wrong?  The “Quaffed and the Dead?”

We are soooo hopeless!

Wait…Melatonin for CV-19?

Yeah…we can come at this two ways.  Simple version is found on San Antonio news giant WOAI’s website:  “Area doctor sees success in experimental COVID-19 treatment using Melatonin.”

More complicated is the abstract of the paper “COVID-19: Melatonin as a potential adjuvant treatment” by Rui Zhang, Xuebin Wang, Leng Ni,a Xiao Di, Baitao Ma, Shuai Niu, Changwei Liu, and Russel J. Reiterb…

“This article summarizes the likely benefits of melatonin in the attenuation of COVID-19 based on its putative pathogenesis….


“Melatonin, a well-known anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidative molecule, is protective against ALI/ARDS caused by viral and other pathogens. Melatonin is effective in critical care patients by reducing vessel permeability, anxiety, sedation use, and improving sleeping quality, which might also be beneficial for better clinical outcomes for COVID-19 patients. Notably, melatonin has a high safety profile. There is significant data showing that melatonin limits virus-related diseases and would also likely be beneficial in COVID-19 patients….”

We neither endorse nor recommend…and do read the WOAI article for levels…but you can’t have too much info or too many options when comes to poten tial life & death choices…  ( Gee, and I sent 25-cents in coin and two cereal box tops to Battle Creek Michigan, but no Junior Doctor Degree, yet…Have to look into that….)

And in Other News

Like what?  Like Depression, Pandemic and coming food shortages aren’t enough to worry about?  ( Forbes out with some happy-talk about food in “Yes, The U.S. Could Face Minor, Local Food Shortages, But They Will Be Temporary” See why we’re still working in the garden?… )

Kid Korea Ill:  The one we call Kid Korea is on death’s doorstep with problems from an operation linked to heart, weight, smoking....  (Is his heir-apparent sister less nuts?  )

Time to go put on the Scrooge McDuck suit and head to the vault.  You don’t  really think I get up every morning and work my ass of for free, do you?  Did you miss my lectures on how to “dual-purpose things in your life?”

Dow futures down 548 points…don’t tell Donald.  West Texas down to $15.57 when I checked.  Maybe that green Dodge Charger with the big Hemmie might be affordable once again…God, I miss American “big iron…”  Killed twice by gas shortages, but now?  The modern analog to the Duesenberg?

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

69 thoughts on “CV19: Monday Effect + Fed Learns Money Buys Time…”

  1. “You don’t really think I get up early every morning and work my ass off for free, do you?” Sometimes I wonder George.

    Writing an informative and entertaining column every day, moderating and posting 70 or 80 comments and saving retirees like me from the pain of a market plunge. Not sure what percentage of your readers pay 40 bucks a year to get the Peoplenomics component of your daily efforts but you need a good ad man.

    FOR ONLY 11 CENTS A DAY, YOU GET EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO START YOUR DAY EVERY DAY. NEWS STRIPPED OF THE BULL…., GOOD ADVICE, LOTS OF LAUGHS AND A LIVELY FORUM.

    • Some would argue 11-cents a day is too much, LOL.

      So, tell me, though, what this mythical “Good ad man”??? I’ve heard of ’em, but always they want more than the workers and over time reveal themselves to be…er….just as greedy and self-interested as any other.
      Remember, ad men brought us things like planned obsolescence and annual models and “new and improved” and “deluze versions, and “beta tests…”

      • Gee George, I’m thinking there must be some way you can get a government handout. Here in Canada if you are able to fog a mirror, you can get moola from Trudeau. The list is endless.

    • More like reading a Finacial and Economics version of Penhous Forum. With a splash of far out, some groovy and a pinch of racy randy.

      “Penthouse Forum was started in March 1970 as a supplement to Penthouse.[1] Unlike the main Penthouse title, Penthouse Forum is more journalistic than pornographic, and features editorials and opinion pieces on controversial contemporary topics. It features regular monthly columns titled “On the Boards”, “On the Beltway”, and “On the Edge”. It also features a section for the “Letter of the Month”.”

      From the Pulpit of the powers that be. Wikipedia.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penthouse_Forum

      So mote it be.

  2. death of the Petro $, change is afoot,,return to US Constitution

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-blocking-property-persons-involved-serious-human-rights-abuse-corruption/

    the richest bastards on the earth fall into the human trafficers category(ownership of human/sheeple,,slavery) we are going to take BACK the gold and back the US treasury with it

    people do not see their own slavery that we live under,,where is your freedom Now? This is a man made virus,, a control devise

    Thank God for President Trump and the military that is supporting this GLOBAL change
    The Storm is upon US

  3. “you don’t think toilet paper appeared to print up financial instruments, do you?”

    HMMMM…. IF YOU’RE RIGHT…..

    The mini rush on Toilet paper before was just the mere beginning the best is yet to come…. OH MY GOSH.. I wish I had a computer screen filled with pictures of BIT COINS…I would feel secure then LOL LOL LOL…
    oh wait.. I found it… but for some ungodly reason I don’t feel very secure with that picture on the computer screen .. I still can’t spend it….

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSecNyzs-5UAdIakGocjPOIg6uGCZ2_wW2hzkrkgzTyLF_zY1WF&usqp=CAU

    maybe if I dyed the toilet paper Green…

    • EMBILY Card – Preloaded with YOUR BITCOIN.

      Accepted EVERYWHERE VISA/MC are around the World..

      BTW how does that USD/frn taste?

      Try a screen filled with images of PA State Militia Members rolling up in Harrisburg @ LIBERATE PA Rally.

      burnt crust on bottom of coffee pot looks Carbonized from here, might want to consider a new one as burnt ass coffee imparts a rather sour taste -imho

  4. George – whats amatta, splatta? It dont matta how time the fed buys – the End Result IS going to Shine.

    Year 0/Month 4 – This is the FIRST time in US History that a PRESIDENT(orangemangreat) and Administration have Responded to a National Crisis with – DeRegulation and DeCentralization, EVER, Clearing the way to : Breaking the NWO/Globalist System..

    -Global Supply Chains – Broke
    China – Broke
    Global Trafficking of Children – Broke
    Global Trafficking of Synthetic Drugs- Broke
    federal reserve – Breaking..The Power Structure is being DisMantled before our eyes.

    ALL of our Current troubles were foretold by the NWO/”elites” in 2012 to the World..

    Go ahead if Ure dare, if Ure have the intestinal fortitude, if Ure have the BALLZ – to Review the 2012 Olympics Opening Ceremony in London..

    The Opening Ceremony viewed today in the colored light of 2020 U can plainly see Predictive Programming at its technological best..for 2012 standards of mind F-ery.

    – 4 times the Microscopic Image of Corona Virus is Displayed in Blue and White Lights on stadium floor.
    – Boris Johnson lifesize “doll” is Foreshadowed in Hospital Bed.
    – Hospital beds with Nurses and Doctors Dancing Around – remind U of any recent Vids on youtube & twitter of masked hospital staff dancing around -Programed poor mindless sheep..

    This Ritual forced into/injected into OUR GLOBAL Conscious “The Raising of the Witch” ceremony – only a ceremony.
    – Their Blood Sacrifice that night was Thwarted by a British Barrister who called(he made several) in the Bomb threat. US NEST Team was on the scene –
    Barrister paid heavy price for this warning – framed with Child Porn/unsuccessfully – did some time (several months).

    2 Seperate Editions of same Comic book from the 1930’s foretold the Corona Virus in Wuhan China.
    80 years later The Mind F^@& is Injected into our conscious. R U wearing a Mask ? R U Afraid ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    WE ARE THE CATTLE – WE WILL COMPLY! Please let us comply and SPY on AND REPORT THOSE THAT DONT.. WE WILL ASSIMILATE –
    – warning – after assimilation beware Borg Hookers – know to be infected/carriers of Space Herpes.

    Resenting the label “meatsuit” and or “cattle” – Denying a problem does make it go away – no first WE must Acknowledge WE have a problem..

    ? Who would not be tired from FIGHTING GLOBAL EVIL CABAL – even with the FULL ARMOUR OF GOD on..

    “for our struggle is not against fleash and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this worlds darkness, and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms. – ephesians 6:12

    Hello Gold Standard ?

    Que POTUS (orangemangreat) latest Pick for fed reserve board..

    • You are so cute and optimistic in your Palm Palms. Lol

      “All war is based in deception” Sun Tzu.

      Certainly appearing like a “savior and a solution.” Best way To control the opposition is to lead it.” Confessions of an Economic Hitman.

      I’m reminded of last year when I was hanging out with two former members of the street gang (the crips) and a fine looking lady walked by in low cut black dress and heels.

      “Sugar?” Asked Bleek, “nah dog, sweet and low” said Perple. “What’s the difference?” I asked. Perple looks at me and says, “sweet and low comes with a little package Mr Lectur. and he pointed to his throat. Then laughs. I said Mr. Lectur? Started laughing when Bleek said , let’s hit the pool Hannibal pointing to me. I laughed and said, “you Canible to the Pool with ya for a life preserver.”

      Be smart and be wise my friend. and if your not?? It’s ok. The Trojans brought a horse in their gate thinking it was a gift of God too. So you’re not the only one.

  5. George, where is OM2? I have several thousand gallons in empty tankage and would be glad to get paid for someone filling them all up with fine diesel! What was that negative price again?

    • @ NM Mike…

      The cliff we just went over is for crude delivery; basically there isn’t enough space to store what is being produced (mainly by KSA) worldwide. This is due to the drop in daily consumption from the shutdown. So double whammy (shutdown and KSA pumping full out) to kill off US shale and make Putin eat his shorts. Disregard anything portrayed as headlines by simply asking yourself, “What group meters the actual oil output from each country?” (hint: nobody until it is all well in the rear view mirror)

      Fuel prices will come down every month we continue with oversupply. Don’t let trader headlines fool you – it takes a mix of light and heavy oils to run through most refineries. Very few can handle all heavy or all light grades. KSA is all heavy; WTI is light, along with all other shale oils – they get mixed as feedstock for our refineries. Thinking we can exist only on shale oil is kinda nuts – you have to synthesize diesel from light shale oil and that takes much more energy than cracking long chain heavy oils. Besides – no refineries are set up to synthesize heavies from light crudes, hence the mixing for suitable feedstock.

      The oilfield is collapsing faster than I have seen it before, and I have been through two of these bigger bust cycles and several little ones. Many companies have relied on lines of credit to grow. If they did not pull their horns in back a year ago when the first signs of this manifested, they are going to puke and die.

      I consult for other companies international and domestic. I had 7 projects going gangbusters 12 months ago. I have 1 (one) going slowly at this point. All my plans vis-a-vis final payoff of my last big loan are put on hold. I am not dipping into savings for a good year, even with the loan payments, but I am certainly NOT getting ahead on my personal plans.

      I have watched 7 separate companies disappear in the last 2 weeks. Layoffs are massive, but are not making it into obfuscational media (not exactly a surprise, as they have never covered oilfield issues because they are far too complex for the likes of Mika Brzezinski or asshat Cuomo…) This phase of demand destruction is not going to be televised…

      There are basically 2 camps of people here around me: camp 1 drank the media koolaid that claimed this was a pandemic and camp 2 gave them a big middle finger after they did a little digging and made some phone calls. Those of you in camp 1 are likely to eat crow from those in camp 2 in the future. My single biggest tell on this? OrangeMan, a well-known germophobe, wears neither a mask nor does he do ‘distancing’ in his daily pressers or avoid close contact with his staff that fly hither-thither to parts unknown. Further, he shakes hands quite often, very much un-gloved.

      Data is already leaking out about this if you are doing any kind of reasonable searching OUTSIDE OF the 6 media conglomerates. Drudge does not count – they were bought and comped over a year back. Same with Zerohedge, if you look at the posted content of their site and then look back 24-36 months at the site content. You need to look at those evil sites that do not get blue tick marks on their twat pages….

      It’s gonna be rough for this old man, but wth – won’t be my first time to be poor or eat some dirt. Oil will come back, but be downsized – part of the cycle. Eventually, when things begin to try to grow again, it is oil price that is likely to limit things. Not talking about next month – think it through; what does ‘demand destruction’ do? Deflation is here – the next phase is not ‘deflation II’. George can ‘splain it to youse guys.

      I got a meeting to get to for some potential work – but who the hell knows if it will ever materialize…

  6. George,

    My wife and I experienced a strange coincidence this week. Two nights ago we watched the movie ‘The Interview’, which is a comedy about North Korea. At the end of the movie, Kim gets killed. The next day the news hits that Kim is on death’s doorstep. I had seen this movie in the Amazon Prime lineup for quite a while and I really didn’t have any interest in watching it, but that night I had a change of mind and decided to watch it after all. Weird! The movie isn’t bad, either.

  7. It was Patriot’s Day yesterday in Massachusetts.

    In some 240 or so years,they’ve gone from Lexington and Concord to lockdown and being conquered.

  8. Crashing to lifetime lows? A reporter saying “never has gas been lower.” Nonsense!!! They’re just not old enough like me at 82. LOL

    For my first car in 1960 I paid 25 cents a gallon and $5.00 would fill it.
    Salaries were also low. Waitress work in college – 50 cents an hour. Taught school Minnesota $4900 and then Arkansas $3500 per year not per month!

    • “never has gas been lower.” Nonsense!!! They’re just not old enough like me”

      Right on RJ….

      OTFLMAO I’m old as dirt myself.. totally remember getting gas at ten cents a gallon… lol lol
      I will never forget the night the fuel industry was deregulated..
      Gas was 67.9 nothing special.. I had a hard day at work was tired.. sat watching the news eating goulash.. the next morning.. 109.9 it went down for a short time after that butt the shock of it .. i haven’t seen prices like today’s in over thirty years lol

    • But you also have to take into account the change in your pocket was made out of SILVER, not base metal worth far less than face value. I often asked my relatives before they “moved on” why that change didn’t impact their psyche to spur them to save as much as they could and all I really got was a shrug of the shoulders and a subject change. Inflation just wasn’t a thing to worry about back in the 60s but it hit home like a ton of bricks when Dad passed on in ’71 and the gas hike hit. I knew how much it hurt when Mom filled the tank on the ‘wagon at those elevated prices posted on the pumps. That was my initiation to what “fiat” meant and it’s been one lesson after another since then.

      • LOL LOL LOL..I know Bill.. I totally remember filling the tank and thinking I wonder if I can squeaze two dollars worth in the tank…
        When they deregulated gas.. to fill the tank took almost a fourth of what I took home in two weeks to buy gas to go back and forth to work.. it was at that time my most expensive bill.. then shortly after that.. Insurance took a hike to.. I remember buying six months of insurance for a hundred and twenty dollars.. for the car..
        there are guys that collect old gas pumps.. when I was a little boy the one gas station we had had one of those that you pumped the gas up into a container and measured.. I use to love using that.. even though he kept it around just for nostalgia sake.. the one that the local guy has in his collection was hooked to the old gas station down the street from us.. and when we first moved into our neck of the woods was on a tank that had kerosine in it.. now to see it being displayed as an antique is amusing and a sure sign of my age.. since I remember using those pumps for what they were built for..

      • Absolutely! Old glass-topped, hand pump/gravity feed dispensers were great decorations in a lot of public places and homes not too long ago. Haven’t seen any phone booths yet, surprisingly, but they may take up too much interior real estate unless they’re actually working.

        Nope, I just can’t understand why people weren’t fighting mad LONG before Carter’s inflation about having to put their life savings into a depreciating asset called “the dollar”. My guess is it had something to do with keeping money velocity up but I don’t know if they ever paid attention to that back then or not. I think it was just Congress-critters enjoying a bottomless checkbook and saying “damn the next generation”.

    • Several years ago, I was able to prove that the gas price hadn’t changed since 1964 – PROVIDED you priced it using 90% silver halves. Once you converted those halves ($3.00 face) to FRNs based on silver content @ spot, you had enough to buy 10 gallons of go-juice, which would have cost $3 in ’64. I forget what the silver spot was at the time. But the math worked. Haven’t re-figured it in a while.

      Source for 1964 (and any year 1960-on): http://www.1960sflashback.com/1964/Economy.asp

      As lots of folks smarter that this North Coast horse’s ass have said, it’s not prices going up, it’s the dollar going bankrupt.

      • It really hasn’t. In fact, it’s cheaper. I use gasoline pump prices as a bellwether to both indicate the current value of currency and the direction the “economy” is going. Petrol, in 1970, ranged between 24.9 and 28.9 cents per gallon (depending on location and whether there was a local “gas war”) and $90/wk was a living wage (about half a “top wage” for Tradesmen). Save salesmen and canvassers (or kids, “cruising”), an average person would burn ~10gal/wk — roughly 5% of their (after tax) income.

        Based on my research and charting, our gas should be between $4 and $4.20 now. It’s not, because the FED can’t keep their greasy hands outta the Markets, and of course because of the price war between Putin and KSA. Based on the current petroleum climate, I _believe_ gasoline should be less than 60cpg right now in most of the Country (which is absolutely NOT a reflection of dollar-depreciation!)

        Will we see 28.9cpg gas again? Sure, when the USD is re-valued @ 1/25 its current “value…”

      • “28.9 cents in 1970 is $1.91”

        Yeah…

        I don’t accept the inflation calculator output WRT petrol, nor do I for educational or medical expenses. The former is manipulated seven ways from Sunday, the latter two, up thousands of percent since the ’60s…

      • LOL Ray, my brother, life is ALL illusory. We are here, then not.
        Money had value, then not.
        Still, the $1.91 (plus increased federal and state tax) is real.

        Fortunately, the business mind is trained not to look at specifics of price, but rather at the change in standard accounting ratios.

        That is, in 1970 gas for the car (and motorcycle then) made up about 2% of my after-tax take home.
        Today, my gas cost is less than 1% (we don’t go anywhere because people are all diseased now).

        Back then, however, my percent of income going to rent was about 28%. Today, it’s zero.

        Life is about managing the illusion. And banging down those ratios.

        Illusions about money are rife. Clarity of improvement using the tools of ratios and percentages of effort, much less so.

      • “my percent of income going to rent was about 28%.”

        Ah, the golden years. I remember when 28% was the “magic percentage.” It was the percentage loan officers and budget managers used for shelter expense. You couldn’t get a personal loan if your shelter expense was above 28%, nor could you get a home mortgage if its P+I exceeded 28% of your after-tax income. THEN they made it “before tax” income, finally eliminating it completely, a few years before the housing bubble burst, not that there was any connection between the two — except for people in possession of more than two working synapses, which excluded Congress, at the time (and probably still does…)

  9. George

    “in The Woodlands which is the Houston area’s answer to Mecca for oil”

    The Woodlands! My life long best Friend Teddy lives in the Woodlands. We grew up in the New Orleans area.

    He is a geologist that specializes in gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico. He did very well in this area and has retired with property in the Woodlands, on Galveston Island and a Colorado chalet. So your statement about the Woodlands being a place for oil men rings true.

    Maybe I should have gone into geology instead of engineering?

    A warning to all who enter the Woodlands area for the first time. Bring a map or prepare to be lost, possibly for a long time!

    • @Rocket Mike

      After living here for a quarter century, I have learned the true feeling of BOHICA with respect to our local governing and taxing authorities. My property taxes are now higher than my mortgage payment, if that tells you anything.

      You shoulda gone into hydrology – never run out of work!

  10. Hey George, I almost have to wonder if the collapse of the derivatives game would not be a good thing? As I see it should not even exist much less be in that much control! I realize the hardship it will bring at first but I think we will ALL be much better off with it gone…………..

  11. I watched Chris Martenson’s podcast with Craig Hemke. They discussed the gold market. They said that paper gold was oversold 100 times and that the crash of that market would be HUGE. They also said that physical gold is in hiding and cannot be bought except maybe on Ebay.

    I’m not well informed on economics, but this sounds to me like the crash that has been predicted has begun. Along with the oil price in the crapper, the petro dollar looks very weak too. How long can this house of cards stay up?

    I have yet to hear someone knowledgeable give a general scenario of what will happen when this house of cards does fall. Does anyone know?

    • I’ve been wondering if the mushrooms on the cow patties out in the pasture know. They’re hard to find, though, in this dry climate. I’m pretty sure that if George knows he’d up his subscription price substantially. The best we can do is watch George’s and anyone else’s charts you choose to and measure the effects of the economic shocks as they come along like geologists read seismic recorders and make predictions about California falling off. As long as the opacity of the banking system stays intact we won’t know anything until that bus comes out of the fog at 80 about 50 feet away from us.

  12. El Don George! Well done. Rim shot! Its 5 O’clock somewhere. Ave un fer me. I dont drink.

    On an interesting note, someone gave me the old pull data off a system (conceptually) the same as the premis of the Bot system, from 2016, that stumbled upon system took me there. Smells if gob-mint. I’m honored they think so much of little old muah.

    Eye will review it.

    Later

    • IIRC Clif offered the WebBot to DoD for free, back around y2k somewhere, and they turned him down. A segment of government which ran the remote viewing project for 26 years, and God only knows how many years of drug experiments, turned him down? This tells me that they already had their own web-bot program in-place, and didn’t need Clif’s (probably got both him and George on a watchlist for several years, though…)

      • It was 2001 and responsive to a “broad area announcement” calling for proposals. No interest – which means in DC terms, someone already “had a deal” and the B AA was for show, not substance. Funny like that back there…and yes…

  13. “(huffing on the white board marker, Prof. Ure quickly sketches up how the evolving Depression compares with the previous one (1929-1941 which ended with Roosevelt forcing Japan into a War in the Pacific which drove the U.S. workers to win-or-die recovery):”

    Here we are praying ”They will be done in Heaven so on Earth” and when “god’s providence” sends us COVID-19 to ”cull the heard” in a “benign way” we humans are never satisfied. What do we want? A more devastating nuclear war? I mean something has to give, IMHO. Human overpopulation on this globe is our biggest problem, all else is just derivative of this circumstance. Back to the jungle — let’s just keep ourselves entertained with idle gossip ;-).

  14. BBBBBBitcoins..G!

    The tally so far 4/21/19 to 4/21/20…drumroll please …..

    S&P -5% Down

    GLD – 29% UP

    BTC – 30% UP

    FRN – BWAHAHAHAHAHA

    Keep printing those $$ baby – Im sure someone can use some cottony soft wiping material..

    “the fed, the fed, the fed is on fire
    the treasury, the treasury, the treasury is on Fire
    we dont need no water, the MFer Burn
    Burn MFer, Burn
    C’mon Bitcoin People
    everybody say ho!
    everybody here we go
    Throw Ure hands in the air
    wave em like U dont care..-Bloodhound Gang/bastardized

    No Bitcoins 4 U..

    ..and yes BTC’s can be CONVERTED INTO ANY Crypto U need/want…today.

    • Cherry Picking Season for BCN: From it’s high, BTCs hold 1/3rd of the their “value” and that’s far worse than bonds, stocks, gold……need the whole remedial list?

      • Sure – year to year comparison is gold standard..since inception, from the high -take Ure pick – as I holocough my way to the Eschaton.

  15. May I posit a solution?
    Propositional truth works like this- if I(we) prophecie that a system of belief will work as I(WE) say and that is tested and found to be true we can accept it as truth.

    Why is money linked to everything we do? Why do we hold it in such high esteem as to link our very existence to be totally indebted to it?
    How is money created? Why was it created? Who created it?
    What is true about money? Who controls monetary
    creation? Who truly benefits from the creation of money? Why are we inDEPTED to creators of this money?
    What does the time value of money mean? Why is a monetary debt connected to an interest rate? Who controls interest rates? Why is the velocity of money so important?
    Why do banks use a fractional reserve system of money
    Creation? Why do central banks exist? Who owns the central bank’s? What is a member bank? What is a commercial bank?
    What is a federal credit union? What is a member owned co-op credit union? Who owns the Federal Reserve System?
    We could go on and on. What’s the Point?
    How’s the system working out for you? Or, for whom is the system working out for?
    Does the system ring true? For whom does bell toll?
    We hold the solution in our hands. It resides in to whom we lend our hands to.
    Pope John Paul was quoted as saying that the current world economic system was evil ,way back in the 80’s. We stand at the precipice.

    • And here is another perspective from the top California Democrat.

      During an interview aired on Friday’s broadcast of CNN’s “AC360,” California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) complimented President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus by stating that the president has met every “direct request” that California has made that the president could have met.

      Newsom said, “Every single direct request that he was capable of meeting, he has met. We have the USNS Mercy in California because of his direct intervention and support. 2,000 of these federal medical stations because of his direct support.

      And so, I can only speak for myself, but I have to be complimentary, otherwise, I would be simply lying to you, misleading you. And that is a wonderful thing to be able to say, and I hope that continues.”

  16. CNN is not a trusted news source, they are activists with an agenda, to destroy Trump, no matter what the cost, thats y u like em.
    The article has no meat, just a bunch of self back patting. Where are the facts that can help everyone? What do ya do now, to get the machine going again,,stagnation is death, we need to get moving or lay down and die

    not an incredible Op-Ed,,just another wanker fest,,ya I read your links and I read the others on here who leave a source,,you cannot make a knowledgeable choice if you do not study the options available to you, pro and con or even a synthesis. Thanks for link

  17. “The one we call Kid Korea is on death’s doorstep with problems from an operation linked to heart, weight, smoking…. (Is his heir-apparent sister less nuts? )”

    No.

    She’s like Un on steroids. Pelosi could take lessons from her on how to be a cold, unfeeling b!tch.

    That’s the reason Un didn’t off her when he purged some of the rest of his family…

  18. HAWAII VIRUS STATS from HDOH:
    Total cases: 586 (2 newly reported)
    Hawai’i County: 64
    Honolulu County: 385
    Kaua’i County: 21
    Maui County: 110
    Pending: 0
    Residents diagnosed outside of Hawai‘i: 6
    Required Hospitalization: 56
    Hawaii deaths: 12
    Released from Isolation: 437
    Cumulative totals as of 12:00pm, April 21, 2020

    Two new cases on Maui… the rest of us are stable for now.

  19. Comrades,

    Gather round for some happy talk.

    90% of my workgroup is not working, and the remaining 10% are underemployed. The 90% are being moved by the employer onto Canada’s temporary federal wage subsidy program which is talked up as covering 75% of wages. Actually there is a cap in place that in reality comes out to less than 75% of our group’s payscale.

    An interesting wrinkle to the payout is that the funds funnel through the company payroll to employees rather than a direct bank deposit from a government unemployment insurance plan. So one imagines a numbers flunkie of bureaucracy worth their salt would be rolling such numbers into the “employed” column to give their political overlords fuel to fire up the good news that unemployment is less than feared.

    Carnage at the Coliseum is on schedule, but spectators remain prohibited. Rome is burning.

  20. Oh my…..
    We have been locked down over a month.. our groceries have been delivered.. everything delivered goes to the garage.. is wiped down all bags and boxes destroyed…
    No one has been sick.. no visitors and no one in that’s been around people…
    When we are outside masks and gloves…
    About as isolated as you can be..
    This afternoon my friend living with us started to not catch his breath.. had to take him in..
    They are going to do a rapid test on him he’s showing all the signs that he has covid-19

    I’m hoping he doesn’t have it we should know soon..
    If he has it.. it had to ride in on something

    • got a call around midnight.. thank god.. the test came back negative.. the girl at the ER scared the hell out of me.. running out to the car like that..

  21. Just a thought – remember the old ALTA reports from Clif High? I was reminded of all the discussion through the years about ‘sun disease’. At the time everyone (including Clif) thought it referred to something originating from the Sun (Sol). What if the actual reference was to ‘corona’ which also refers to the outer atmosphere of the Sun.? Sometimes the universe hides clues in plain sight.

  22. Dude! I’m reading this super cool book. I’m trippin. Written way back in the day. Before cars an automobiles. About accessing Earths memories. Because she remembers every civilization that has ever existed on her.

    I forgot to mention back 2011, I was talking to the dude and he mentioned the land of Ur. Which was before Atlantis about an Aeon. I dont know why I’m remembering that now. We were talking about the Dark Knight Satelite and he just rambling about the Land of Ur, I said Atlantis? He said no no no. Way before atlantis. They were located at where now we consider Antartica but it was a push jungle. HugeCrystal Pyramids, harnessing lightning and working with plasma.
    I forgot to mention about that. Just some random dude I met along the way. He was freight train hopper, FTRA guy, off the grid dude.

    There is a fine line between Lunatic and Visionary Shaman.

    Maybe you are a Descendant of the Land of Ur. Idk. The book just reminded me of that. Lol

    • The only Ur I’ve ever heard of was a Sumerian metropolis. [Going from memory, here,] Sumeria was an ancient superpower, noted for their phalanx and their far-more-advanced artillery than anyone else’s. They carved an empire out of Mesopotamia, then created a peace (such that it were) in the Land. Greater Ur was a marvel – It was a cultural and commercial mecca of, at its height, nearly a million people (60-100k residents, possibly many more — archaeological opinions vary.) Citizens enjoyed indoor hot & cold running water and flush toilets, door locks, cookstoves, tablesettings (okay, the plates were clay, not porcelain, but we’re talking millenia before the rise of Egypt) with smithed bronze or silver flatware and other modern amenities.

      The Sumerians vanished without a trace, over a thousand years before Christ and Ur was buried & built upon a number of times during the next 3000 years, being “discovered” again in (I believe) the 1850s. I haven’t researched the Sumerians, but the “flush toilets” in Ur thing really grabbed me, being edjumicated to believe Thomas Crapper invented them (he didn’t — He just created the “Ford Model-T” of commodes.) The disappearance of the Sumerians is one of the great anomalies of civilization and one of the great mysteries of archaeology and anthropology…

    • Edgar Cayce has a lot of readings on the ancient land of Ur, Atlantis, Ancient Egypt, Lemuria, it’s ALL there.

  23. Numbers look to be approaching deceleration mode, but the situation in New York is still bad. As I suggested previously, the virus is running out of willing victims. As to whether the restarts get legs will depend on whether people maintain discipline.
    If I hear a major political figure mouth “Americans don’t wear masks”, I will not be happy or supportive. Until vaccines or therapies are cheap and easy, we will be stuck with the social muffling.
    I have wondered why people making improvised masks haven’t tried cutting up allergy furnace filters. If the filter media seems too fragile, sandwich between porous cloth layers.
    Most of the improvised masks I saw this weekend did not have vent check valves. A mask without a check valve is going to become saturated with spittle, and is going to be a breeding ground for airborne cooties. Americans shouldn’t have to wear wet buggy nasty improvised masks.
    Amazon has an ad for “160 Proof” hand sanitizer. The recipe looked surprisingly good, but I lost my nerve and didn’t order any.

    • N_______. Hand sanitizer is really easy to make.
      The recipe is 2 parts alcohol 1 part water gel.. aloe is first choice then glycerine . In a pinch you can make your own water gel to.
      Add some essential oil for aroma.
      My grandkids have been scared for their friends etc. So have some of my old coworkers and what they find is way over priced..so we are planning on making some and giving it away..that way I can teach them how to make it.. found a free label for zombie germ juice.. and some small lotion bottles

    • “I have wondered why people making improvised masks haven’t tried cutting up allergy furnace filters.”

      Vacuum cleaner bags are easier to work with, although most of the masks I’ve seen are just cloth, patterned off of 1950s-era surgical masks…

      • Some people are using 3M’s Filtrete furnace filters, which do not contain fiberglass, although 3M advises against such use. Maybe it’s just a CYA thing.

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