Another notch in our “predictions” about future.
You’ll remember me telling you (repeatedly) that there would never be an effective, single vaccine because the CV-19, son of SARS/Cov-2 is continuing to mutate. And likely will for years as it adapts to a host that’s trying to kill it.
I told you this would be like the common cold – for which there is also no vaccine.
Today? Wouldn’t you know it? We read how Bill Gates is saying multiple doses of vaccine may be needed . No telling how many billion he could have saved by looking at things through the lens of comment sense. But, we’ve been saying it consistently.
Another “late to the party” group is the “Fooled and Drugged Administration.” Where “US Could Hit 300,000 COVID-19 Deaths By The End Of Year, Former FDA Commissioner Says.” Said it 2-days ago. Of course, we’ve been using those numbers (and higher) since mid-freaking March.
In fact, thanks to masks being turned into a political clusterf*ck instead of a medical medical strategy, our year-end moderate case now calls for >500,000 dead in the U.S. by New Years with cases in the vicinity of 60-65-million. Politicians spewing on masks is constitutional malpractice.
Here’s the problem – which we’ve been kicking around in the Comments section: IF there is “herd or community immunity” that won’t happen until well over half of Americans have contracted the virus. Unfortunately, that’s a mighty big number. Half of 330-million is? 165-million – and even a good “save rate” might still kill 5%, which pencils out to? 8,250,000 dead. Next year, not today.
Grim stuff, but – the good news in all this – is that the virus may simply mutate to something far more benign between now and then…which would be a dandy outcome, though it would cost Mssr. Gates a fortune, or three.
Seems to us that Americans have “self-selected” in one of several major camps:
- Political Mask Aversion (PMA)-types. The common identifiers of this group are slogans like “It’s all phony”, or “The Virus will disappear after the Election”, or “I am standing up for might Rights…”
- Virus Terrorists (VT’s): “Mask up!”, “Lock down”, “Close schools for at least a year…”, “Stay home”, and “Economy be damned!”
- Rational Non-Partisans: (RNP’s) Slogan free, use sensible precautions (just in case) and avoid other people. C, D, Zinc and hot zone protocols as an “in case.”
While this lays out the human side, what we find more remarkable than anything is the Financial aspects.
The Market is crazy, of late. I want you to think back to the middle of March. Market was putting in its lows. Since then:
- Airlines, hotels, and car rental outfits have filed for bankruptcy.
- Unemployment has soared.
- The federal deficit is screaming higher.
- A huge wave of home foreclosures is close at hand…
So we have to ask ourselves “WTF is with the market going higher?”
Ure Answer in Plain Site
There has been at least a 30% increase in people not working and business activity cratering. But, the Federal Reserve has simultaneously pumped over 30% more money into the economy as revealed in their H.6 Money Stocks report.
The bad is balanced off but the surreal nature of it all is astounding.
The yellow highlights? We are six months into CV-19, so we’re guided by the six-month print rates.
Ask yourself “Why is the market up? Why are Gold and Silver up? Why are commodities up? What is everything normal when everything is really all screwed up???”
The “Magic of Liquidity.” Without it, we would be in a Second (and Greater) Depression than ever before in America’s history.
Crashing the Market on Trump
You may have missed studying the stock market for (gulp!) 45-years. But there are recurring patterns. One of this is a late summer high and a fall collapse.
Assuming you know that Trump canceled the Jacksonville part of the GOP convention (Trump explains decision to cancel Jacksonville part of GOP convention: ‘Setting an example’) what are the “historical rhymes” and how MIGHT they fit with what’s to come?
Well, historically, there is often (not always) a tradeable summer rally. And then things are set for a fall sell-off. Since the presidential election will be November 3rd this year, and democrat “attack ads” blaming the projected coming crash on Trump would need good reach and frequency (in marketing terms to be highly impactful), we can see the market peaking, oh…ABOUT NOW.
While the “futures” look like a downside open is at hand, a late-session rally to “finish off the run” at the top of the right-most “trading boxes” would be about as graceful as could be imagined, if that’s the play today:
The problem is that the “peek-a-boo” high was not on a weekly closing basis. Although, if we break convincingly under the 50 day moving average (and then take out support) it would be time to check in with the dust bunnies.
Lefty Field Day with the (cheap, pseudo) drama of Slo Joe picking his
successor V.P. nominee. The Amazon post roles ’em out this way: The 12 most logical picks for Joe Biden’s vice president, ranked. While we think it odd that NPR is running large with “Susan Rice, Perhaps An Unlikely Contender, Lands On Biden’s VP Shortlist.”
We would like to draw your attention to the center-stage of American Political Kabuki where the NY Times is out with an opinion that “Millions of Americans Are About to Lose Their Homes. Congress Must Help Them...”
Is Kabukiness a word? Here’s the Kabuki part: The NY Times ought to be grown-up enough to know that the House will NEVER allow a meaningful bill (like rolling back foreclosures further) BEFORE the election. Sorry, but in the cold cruel political reality, is that for the Fools on the Hill, the game for the next 102 days is to run a massive “Pin the Woes on Trump” campaign.
Trump is blamed for the virus…and by congressional delay…this pins foreclosures on Trump (the idiots themselves will avoid blame – they’re especially good at that!). Why, toss in a bigly/escalating “war of words” with China… The big, orange piñata, right?
Huge hype today about how the U.S. has been ordered by China to close one of our consulates in China. This, after we ordered China to close their Houston field office which was – by some accounts – little more than a front for a massive technology spy ring.
One easy way to Trump to get “back in the saddle” would be to have a high profile stare-down with China. Except, since we don’t make much of anything in ‘Merica anymore, this could backfire into a major blow-up in the Trade War, in which case all though tools out in the shop I’ve been investing in could become worth (cue Vanna!) Big Money, Big Money!
Russia’s Probing Us, Too
Wired has good coverage of “Russia’s GRU Hackers Hit US Government and Energy Targets: previously unreported Fancy Bear campaign persisted for well over a year—and indicates that the notorious group has broadened its focus.” You have to read it and imagine what turning off the grid and the web would do to us. Who needs EMP when you’ve got script-kiddies organized?
Again, this is why UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics are BOTH STATIC IP ADDRESSES now. Please make a note of it. (We don’t want to be held hostage to a working DNS system, especially during DDoS attacks.
We certainly didn’t plan for UFO’s and the sighting details on the Peoplenomics side to be part of a bigger wave of things. But, in the headlines today, “Pentagon’s UFO hunting department was NOT disbanded in 2012 as stated and could now give public reports every six months amid claims it found ‘vehicles not made on this earth’.” What…the Pentagon lying? Nothing new there…
As always, however, we check things out carefully and methodically because all things UFO have to be taken clinically, not at face value.
Ham Radio Help Needed
Picked up a classic Johnson Viking 2 transmitter on eBay last week. Problem is I don’t have a suitable VFO for it. My “dream VFO” would be a Johnson model 122 or a Hallicrafters HA-5 VFO…
So, spread the word among hams you know, George is shopping! Lines are open, operators are standing by!
If the tropical storm in the Gulf – Hanna – heads up the Rio Grande Valley, all we will likely see will be thunderstorms and a piddle of rain. Tropical Storm Hanna forms in Gulf of Mexico as Gonzalo holds steady. Will we get any “compression heating here” The Dallas Morning News says Hot and humid today with Tropical Storm Hanna nearing the coast.
Our readers out in “Howahyah” are getting ready for a soaking, too as Hurricane Douglas Heads for Hawaii...”
OK, Dow futures down 100 with 58-minutes to the ding… The lawn tractor calls…right after oatmeal…
Write when you get rich,