What do China and Burger King have in common? They’re both selling Whoppers.
A look at the circular firing squad during the dem-bate this week ought to give you a clue how “dumb we is.” But this latest change in Chinese COVID-19 case reporting smacks of old-line ChiCom propaganda.
Let’s pull up yesterday’s numbers and compare with today’s, shall we?
See the problem?
The rate of case increase has fallen to an unrealistically low level. Something doesn’t just go up >2% per week, and suddenly turn on a dime and drop like this. What’s more, we’re a little skeptical of the low death rate – and if it falls greatly this weekend, we’ll be pretty sure the data is jiggered.
Our reasoning is pretty simple. Let’s imagine that the average incubation time on COVID19 is 8-days. Given the disease takes that long to appear, and deaths would follow that by what? 3-5 days? Then the death count coming down concurrent with a big decline in the numbers will be the tip-off that systemic lying is in play. Dead would drop a week to 10-days out, not right away you ninnies.
Now, let’s think this through. Who would benefit if everyone in China is convinced the danger is past? Oh, the Chinese government, the corporations around the world, and…well, you get the idea. Cue the Vanna White track: “Big money! Big money!”
“Extra pickle with your COVID Numbers, sir?” (Have it Ure way…)
What I cynically warned you to keep an eye out for is changes over the weekend. As soon as the U.S. market closes for the weekend, there will be an open window for a statistical confessional that will (maybe, sort of) get the numbers higher, but not so much as to panic the markets lasting into next week.
It’s an insult to our intelligence that all the high-powered medical types with their N-3,758 P-0.05 drug test results haven’t been able to count the bodies stacked up like cordwood. Nor – since we are on their third freaking method of reporting cases – is there any sign of a standard global case-counting method.
Not like we haven’t had reasons to already have such a process already in place: There was SARS, there was MERS, and long ago, what about Swine Flu? Where’s the plan, Stan?
Don’t get me wrong – I have a LOT of respect for the front line medical people. But, when it’s obvious that government are panicking because the implosion of China could take down Global Finance and Kick Off Depression 2.0 – yeah – lots of mental acuity is in order.
Things to Ponder Deeply
Think I’m nuts for seeing “Panic Avoidance” at a global level?
See? The rate of increase in the virus was HUGE and the death count just hit a low… Maybe you don’t have a brain like mine – one that turns any series of numbers into a chart – that’s just how I’m wired. Onion with that?
But we see other evidence that it’s worse that you’re thinking. The tells are all over if you follow the damn money.
CNN put it out Thursday: “Goldman Sachs warns of stock market correction.”
See the pattern here? From my February 11th column, I called your attention to this:
“MarketWatch had a real interesting story cross Monday: “Goldman Sachs says impact of coronavirus will be ‘limited,’ and these are the stocks to buy if it’s right .”
I also told you:
“That left my consigliere and me wondering by late Monday afternoon if someone wasn’t “talking their book” – a technique where major players sometimes say one thing (we’re heading higher ahead) while unloading (distribution) stock holdings to remaining “greater fools.” No conclusions, but we do have serious suspicions.”
Apparently this last little run-up in the market was a satisfactory distribution to the “weak hands” of the public – at least based on the run-around on Goldman’s assessment of COVD-19 impacts.
You know, it’s fun to read the news like this. Oh, sure, a bit conspiratorial sounding at times. But, how often do I have to tell you the Big Guns always talk their book toward the end of a market run? Like Irving Fisher’s famous gaffes back in 1929. When someone even hints at “permanent prosperity” or that “We can now avoid stock declines” – it’s almost a damn certainty you should be making exit plans.
Which gets us to the early futures: Where the Dow was only down 60 with 75-minutes to the open. Gold and silver – both easily disinfected – are doing just fine. Bitcoin is sitting at $9,708 but I’ve suffered too many hard drive crashes and virus attacks to trust out golden years to tech.
Belt and suspenders, that’s me. Seeds, well, barrel of diesel, and a case of Hoppe’s #9 to keep everything in good working order.
The rest of my time, I’m sitting back pondering the Big Whodunit: Ask yourself which country would have the most to gain from a bioweapon attack, if that’s what this bug is? Many a novel plot for the novel virus come to mind.
Screw it. Let’s take the payroll to Vegas.
In the “New Yellow Times” today we see how “Lawmakers Are Warned That Russia Is Meddling to Re-elect Trump.” What we want to know is whether this was an open meeting or is this is another demo-slam on Trump? AND where’s the full context of what was said? I know…don’t bother ’em with facts. This is about Trump-hate. A disease more damaging that COVID but at least it’s easier to detect.
Supposedly, this can’t happen, but…”30Y Yields Hit Record Lows, Gold Hits Record Highs.” Gold is supposed to be an inflation head and low rates are counter to that.
What is the Fed thinking? “The Federal Reserve thinks low rates have had only a ‘modest’ impact on stock market prices…” Hookah finance, we infer. Short term M-1 in table two of the H.6 money stocks still going up 7.8% annualized as Mugabenomics is the new American financial model. Coming to store shelves near you. Only $26-billion in made-up repo’s today, so look out below…
Nothing runs like a stock? Deere rises after tractor-maker reports better-than-expected earnings, says farming stabilizing.
Around the Ranch
Bunch of notes piling up on my desk to go through.
First for Big Al – thanks for the opportunity to hook up on Alignable or whatever that’s called – but Ure is on a “social diet.” I look at my LinkedIn account now and then, but FB and that? Seldom.
For serious Makers: You can now print METAL on your 3D printer. Sort, of, anyway. You get special filament from BASF Special Products (information here): Print off your 3D parts and then mail it off for “sintering.” (fusing the metal together). Ain’t cheap. $468 last time I looked on the MatterHackers website. But, out of stock. Not sure how they would handle a “plumbing part” that might be fitted onto a Good lock…if you follow. Tech’s gotta be making ATF nuts.
Ordered some doo-dads from Amazon to keep moving our house into being an “imaginered home.” Over the winter, a lot of stuff has accumulated on the screen porch, but as soon as the weather warms up, I’ll have it back looking like a glof club.
Interior of the house continues to evolve. In the dining room (south sea islands motif with reed walls and lots of bamboo, a pterodactyl will be flying shortly. Similarly, the one-off custom mural of the Golden Gate (from the Sausalito side, will shortly have a few (model) seagulls in the room to draw the eye into the mural… Love this kind of design. Like living in a house that’s multiple “movie set” rooms and we’re having tons of fun with it, as always. Big lumber run ahead…
Horse leasing? Yep. My (little) sister has one. Really works out well for all involved. I haven’t asked her yet, which is better for the environment – her leased horse or the Prius. Hard to dressage most Toyota products, though. Got any data on cow farts vs. horse farts?
Podcast #10 on Peoplenomics tomorrow…
We did our Texas early voting by mail yesterday. And no, we don’t think kids under 18-should be allowed to make their own decisions on chemical castration and sex change operations. We think the Megele Model of left-wing education ought to be oulawed in the process.
And no sign of spring yet – down into the low 30’s but we could sure use some teens to hold back the bug population this year.
Write when you get warm,