With apologies to Gary Zukav, world-class physicist and author of “Dancing Wu Li Masters: An Overview of the New Physics.” I can’t resist turning a good phrase.
Chinese should be barred from Statistics. But, as dictatorial States will, they have no problem making up a False Reality and shoving it down people’s throats.
Vitriol? No – China has moved into Xi Full Lie now by again changing its statistical methodology for the third time in two weeks. Third time’s a charm? As one news organization called it: “Hubei Changes Virus Count Method With Data Mistrust Growing.” Oh-oh. You think?
Where would we be if the original methodology had remained “untweaked”? On our Peoplenomics site last Saturday we predicted that today, we might see a death toll of 2,562. The good news is the death toll has under shot our forecast and actually came in today at 2,130. We were about 20% high.
Similarly, we were expecting a “cases count” today of around 110,989. Again, good news as the “official” number is just 75,751. Did the virus really just stop? Hell no. How it’s being counted changed.
YOUR PROBLEM is to figure out whether this is (choose one) a) recalculation, b) misdirection, c) an outright lie to save the global economy.
What about cases, though? IF we made the same 20% error on the “cases” side, we should have seen a confirmed cases count today of around 92,000. Instead? China and the WHO roll with that 75,751 figure. We’re just crazy-enough to believe the real number (using the old method) would probably be around 92,000. But we’re not Xi whizzes…
What was it Mark Twain wrote? “There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Things haven’t changed when comes to humans, numbers, and denial. Chinese Roulette is the Big Game in town.
Nevertheless, we appreciate that the Chinese president is in a terrible financial fix: If the Chinese don’t pronounce the is virus passing, people will not go back to work. If that happens, the Chinese stock market will implode and take down the global bubble in the process. He doesn’t want that so let’s mix up the numbers again. Side bet on revision four being in our future?
Which may be used as an excuse ultimately, to make made-up-money (like Bitcoin, $9,610 this morning) illegal by governments anxious to keep people invested in “sanctioned financial vehicles.”
Meanwhile, though, those old (and easily-cleaned) gold and silver ducats you’ve been hoarding for years are waking up.
Gold is at a 7-year high today having touched $1,615.30 on the metal dealer Kitco.com’s site earlier. Silver fixed at $18.29. Since silver has multiple medical applications, and is a strong antibacterial, we reckon it could have a decent run. As always, this is not an investment tip…Just a report of real data any old damn-fool can find on the net. Being both, I’m Ure proof.
Stock Futures today aren’t sure how to play this global virus-drama. Down about 40-points earlier for the Dow. The balance of COVID headlines hint this mess is miles from solved.
- South Korea has its first death with 2.5 million housebound as a semi-isolation program kicks in with official encouragment.
- In Japan the first two deaths from the Diamond Princess outbreak have been reported. Repeat after me: “Didn’t you say it was a mistake to let people off the ship and it was premature?”: Yeah, uh-huh, that’d be me.
- And the stories about how Apple and other tech companies are eyeing the virus chill, again circles us back to forward-looking supply chain prospects.
While U.S. cases have remained stable at 15, we would not be surprised to see that edge up toward 22 by next Tuesday. Guessing beyond that,, how about the low 30’s the following week? Unless, of course, public health officials get very lucky.
Canada, meanwhile is holding at 8 cases, but our 12-day guess would be 12 to 14 cases. We’ll just have to wait and see.
My buddy the major thinks the coming of spring and warmer weather is the tonic…does marvels cutting down on common colds. Not to spritz cold water here, but what if it IS a bioweapon and heat makes it worse, not better?
We’ll just hold to our slow-motion plans to beef-up our hedges until the data becomes definitive.
We really like the NY Post’s honest appraisal of the democrat fiasco in Vegas last night.
The Post wasn’t the only media outlet reporting it, The Drudge Report poll this morning showed Bernie Sanders came in #1, followed by Amy Klobuchar at #2 and Warbucks Bloomberg in 3rd (Poke-a-Warren was 4th).
Some advice? We don’t trust online polls any more than we trust North Korea of Tehran.
It’s not that Drudge isn’t trying to poll fairly. Of course he is. It’s just that the candidates in the Deperation Party all know polls drive voters. It’s all part of the art of perception management. The presidential wannabe’s hire poll-stuffers and have code ready to midlead voters who can’t be trusted to think for themselves.
Meanwhile, we’ve been right predicting the Big Shot Money would attempt to Re-Screw Bernie. Almost heartening that the the two bit socialist beat Michael Warbucks and the salt-banning circus of rich dems.
In fairness to Michael Warbucks, though (and his insults of farmers aside, because they were taken out of context) he did a few things as New York mayor that make sense. Like his New York “black roof ban” which may not save us from climate change, but we’re huge fans of white elastomeric coatings on rooftops, ourselves. And the only sugar we use around here is the odd tablespoon of brown sugar or mollasses in BBQ sauce. But, that should be a matter of education and choice.
Bloomberg is proof of what, then? Eventually, if you talk enough, your foot will go in your mouth. Even if it doesn’t go all the way in, someone will maliciously edit so it looks like it did.
Bloomberg also shows that if you make-up enough new laws, a few will make sense (*like his smoking bans and the black roof ban). The rest? Well, maybve we have too many laws, already.
Philly Fed Survey
Just out – more gasoline for the bulls to latch onto in the Philly Fed outlook:
The diffusion index for current general activity rose nearly 20 points this month to 36.7, its highest reading since February 2017 (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increases (52 percent) this month exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (15 percent). The index for new orders increased 15 points to 33.6, its highest reading since May 2018. Over 50 percent of the firms reported an increase in new orders, up from 46 percent in January. The current shipments index increased 2 points. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes moved into positive territory this month, suggesting slightly higher unfilled orders and slower delivery times.:
Futures that had been falling were buoyed a bit by the data.
And the NY Fed Repo Depot? In with $65.25-billion to light ‘er up toward Dow 30,000.
Time to check where we are in the 140day mass murder cycle as a Gunman kills 9 at hookah bars near Frankfurt, Germany.
Look who’s buying cash flow: Morgan Stanley Is Buying E-Trade For $13 Billion, Outmaneuvers Archrival Goldman With Pivot To Retail.
With PPI up – which can sometimes foretell inflation to come – and with rates low, what’s not to love about buying a home? Housing Market Potential Reaches Two-Year High, According to First American Potential Home Sales Model.
Someone may be late for the party: Cleveland Browns player arrested after 157 pounds of marijuana found in a car. Don’t look now, but if that’s $300/ounce high-end shake, that’s like three quarters of a million worth. Just guessing it wasn’t seed & stems.
And it’s cold here in East Texas this morning with a high today of 45 and sub-freezing tonight. All part of A winter storm that could deliver black ice and accumulating snow across the South…We’ve put 4″ of rain in the gauge in the last 2-days, as well.
T’ain’t Climate – It’s Weather
Zeus the Cat – our associate Editor-in-Chief – refused to leave the comfort of the house this morning. “Just be sure and mention I’m taking a “Climate Day,” he explained. “Any democrat smart enough to read your site will understand purrfectly…” ( I assured him the term “democrat smart-enough” was an oxymoron.)
Sure enough – everyone is STILL blaming everyone else for climate. Confusing climante and seasonal variance of weather and yeah, climate has been chagning for a million years. No taxes and no hysteria.
The WaPo rolled today with Facing climate change, Boston must gird itself for an era of rising water — or be inundated. OMG – run from Boston!
More histrionics as the NY Times was trying to save the other coast in “What Rising Seas Mean for San Francisco.”
Delusion is a hard thing for people to get past – and the same dynamics that make economics so difficult to comprehend also drive climate insanity.
You see, in economics, inflation is sold as “prices going up.” In fact, it’s really the purchasing power of money going down. So it takes more money and that feels like prices going up – in a sense, they are. But it’s because money’s worthless. You following?
Similarly, sea level ain’t rising, necessarily, either. We’re not making a lot more water, are we?
Global subsidence is a real thing. Rain on America long enough, and it will all wash out into the Gulf of Mexico. As a matter of fact fact, you can find places along the east coast where pilings have moved many of feet due tro crustal movement over the past century.
Besides causing periodic mid-continent disasters – like the New Madrid earthquake – tectonic plate shift argues that in the long-term parts of the US will slide into the ocean off all three coasts.
All the tax money in the world can’t fix it. Our ancestors, lacking legions of financial engineers and climate grant writers with dreams of buying Tesla’s and idiot climate extremists and crooked media, just moved inland a bit. Port Royal slid into the ocean off Jamaica 1692 taking a city full of pirates and consorts with it. Nature just does things like that, once in a while.
If you don’t like the local odds of “rising sea levels” (which we figure is more like land movements) in places like Boston or the Bay area, put your mind at ease and move to higher ground.
Man’s greatest folly is money. It fuels the wrong-headed belief that we can buy off Nature. Sure, we can build a few more floating bridges, but compound interest on our existing National Debt will surely cause a global die-off long before Boston goes under water.
If you want to listen to the pip-squeaks and demagogues of climate, have at it. But take a lesson from Zeus the Cat.
It’s a scam – so use it like one. Take a “Climate Day” off. You might save Boston single-handedly.
Write when it warms up, or when Diogenes finds an honest candidate for office.