It was obvious looking at the emerging Globalist framework while doing the masters in the mid 1990’s, that the handwriting was already on the wall. Forensics had been done, evidence sorted and a jury empaneled.
The poor were out-screwing the well-off (and still are), there was a ceiling evident in personal consumption, there had been no “peace dividend” from the Cold War ending. And, eventually, all the players would go bankrupt. In stages.
The “convictions” of multiple counts of economic fraud were presented, variously, at the market lows in 2002-2003, the 2008-2009 bottom, and I expect, again shortly.
Is shortly 6-months or another two or three year rally? That’s the only decision requiring any deep study.
The fundamentals were (and remain) clear: We have allowed a world to evolve where the value of human labor fall like a rock. Jobs have been either outsourced to the most miserable of the Third World shitholes to crater unit labor costs, or first machines, and now automation and robotics is (in baseball terms) “on deck” to knock jobs out of the park.
We’re in a race with ourselves to become obsolete.
Every ask yourself “Who do I know personally that’s living happily ever-after?” Damn few are and there’s a structural economic reason: Our economy only has one mode. It is either growing or it’s over.
Structurally, we see the “best and brightest” giving up on the future, save a handful of ultra-techies. The rest are tying their tubes, visiting Dr. Snippet, going gay, lez, or somewhere else. Because the notion of traditional nuclear families was dashed on the rocks by the unholy left in education supported by the (communist) global elites – the real manipulators. All billionaires are equal, don’tcha know?
The global “shop-keeper economy” is not-yet dead. Even so, there have been numerous financial 9-1-1 calls and the patient has congestive economic failure. For now held steady by periodic transfusions of cash to the elites. A billionaire’s tax at the higher (functional) level.
But, we can see how this may all end badly. As outlined last week, we have a world ruled by an interlocking management team of self-made billionaires who have established a kind of “global communist détente. Seems the more money people make, the more liberal they become…generous with other people’s money.
It was in the news again this weekend – with Soros whining about Trump and how he’s upsetting the “club” which is busily trickling-down excess regulation and socialism while stifling personal freedoms and diluting American core values (hard work, ingenuity, innovation, and a strong independent streak) as fast as possible.
Which gets us to Sentencing Week. Starts tomorrow.
When we chatted Friday, it was fairly clear that the market this week would either break out – going to new highs – or we would begin a terrible third leg down. The first leg down was January-February, and we have been in what looks like a corrective Wave 2 bounce, since.
There are two ways “sentencing” could go at the extremes.
On the downside – and this argues for a mega-crash now without the luxury of a few more years to prep – we have the makings of a drought, and economy that will grow mostly through improvements in exports to bring down both the balance of trade and budget deficits. The Mueller “fishing and hookers” charade will eventually entrap someone who will -(to avoid jail)); mention Trump or his direct reports.
Should this be the work-out, then our Seven Major Systems of life may demand consideration.
Housing: In the event the economy hit a year or two long slide, do you have a place to live? Somewhere that you could safely rest without being on the hook for rent or a house payment?
Food: Do you have a budget plan that will keep putting calories in the family despite the cost of food perhaps doubling, or more? OPEC is trying to drive up prices, and while the drought has local cattlemen downsizing herds, capping meat prices for now, in six months to a year, prices could skyrocket.
Transportation: Silly to ask, but do you have a care? Have you looked over your auto loan docs to see if the finance people can come after other financial assets (savings, real estate and such) should you have to default in the worst case?
Communications: Suppose just for a minute, that due to trade conflict, hackers are given embedded code to hack backbone routers on the Internet. How do you handle conditions like stock trading, banking, and so forth? What is your cost to cancel cell, c able, and other non-essential communications?
Environment: Are you able to go 6-months without going to the store for a roll of toilet paper? A read of the Russian experience with collapse hints that might be an interesting investment. Along with heritage veggie seeds, perhaps a ganj seed or dozen, plus a sewing kit to keep your clothes patched. Got “Shoe Goo” and a fresh set of work boots?
Energy: Have you added to your home’s insulation? I was running figures over the weekend and despite the drought, we are still – on average year to date – down about two degrees from past years. Hit www.wunderground.com and use the “custom date range” under the history tab to compare each of the past five years where you live. The answer may surprise you, but as we’ve warned, global climate change has been going on since the Laurentide sheet withdrew. What IS new is that (like sexual variance marketing) selling “the weather” is another sure-fire sign just how bankrupt and “out-of-growth” our economy really is… Driving – by looking in the rearview mirror -doesn’t make sense to us.
Do you own more solar panels that we do? Travel less?
Finance: Last, but not least, if the week were to go very worst case and jobs growth reverses, do you have enough savings (the you can get to) to buy off the government from whom we all “rent our land?”
Shocks most people to put it this bluntly, but one of the biggest swindles in America was the transition from free-held, fee simple, outright ownership to allowing counties and states to tax property ownership. Which, if you haven’t figured it before, makes their “ownership right to collect rent (taxes) superior to yours.
Sum all these basics up and, as my friend Gaye Levy and I wrote in a book on topic several years ago, it’s time to start planning: 11 Steps to Living a Strategic Life: A Guide to Survival During Uncertain Times.
Or not. There is the Nanny State government, isn’t there?
Now the Good News
The odds are a bit better than 50-50 as we see it, that we will go on and hit new all time highs in the market over the next two years, or so. A 10 percent downside, maybe, tops. If more? That an OH S**T! moment.
We don’t think the Consumer Price Index – due tomorrow – will panic the world.
We think the Fed may be done raising rates *(and selling off troubled assets purchased in the 2009 debacle to bail out the bankster class). This being the case, 2 percent or 3 percent will not work as a long-term inflation target because it is still too low. Pension funds will still blow up under such a regimen.
We expect what will have to happen is retirement plans that go bust will just roll into Social Security and the assets tossed into the (misnamed) Social Security “Trust” Fund. This could have a dilution effect on pre-existing SS recipients, but what are you going to do when defined benefits plan resources aren’t there to be distributed?
The good news for federal retirees, is that even with pension troubles, they will continue to be treated royally. Their unions have enough clout even now to be a major force in DC.
With CPI tomorrow, Fed decision Wednesday, Inspector General report Thursday, and God knows what the Trump bashing post G7 will turn into, this is a great week to pay very close attention to details. Mueller-something Friday?
A major break to the upside and we have 2-years on parole. Time to get into personal financial rehab and gin up our options for each of the physical support systems.
A break to the downside – more than 10 percent, or so – and the clock may already have run out.
All rise! The Court of Economic Sentencing is now in session.
Write when you get rich,