The 68-Day Screamer?

Back of the Envelope Economics (BotEE) class is now in session!

Look at how we continue replaying 1929:

If there is a correspondence between where we were and 1929 (late spring) and the recent (late spring) correction that may end this week, we could be about to replay the final rally of 1929.

Of course it won’t be the 68-days that it took to run from the breakout (June 27, 1929 on a weekly basis) to the all-time high in early September of 1929.

That’s because the market had Saturday trading.  If we back that out, adding 20% to correct from 6-day a week to less manic 5-day weeks, we will more likely see a market peak 82-days hence.    Around August 2nd.

That’s an interesting date and maybe it will work out slower, after all, the Fed is pulling the strings here.  And their latest H.6 Money Stocks report says they have been pouring on the coal – a higher market is almost a given.

You can increase the run rate of M1 printing from 1.4 percent annualized (basis the 3-month) at the end of March to 3.9 percent at the end of May, and not have a major “leak into markets.”

Still, lots of news this week which will ultimately be blamed, even if we see the Fed wants things to go higher based on their print rate.

Bitcoin:  $6,780

Not that we’re surprised:

Right now, the bear case is looking stronger…Bitcoin tumbles as hackers hit S.Korean exchange Coinrail.

We still figure Bitcoin will go into the history books as the modern – equally useless – analog to tulips!  Made-up money creating made-up wealth with no intrinsic value except for the “good story” swallowed hook, line and sinker.

Adventures of Dim Un

President Trump’s efforts to reach a stand-down with North Korea got a typical NPR back-hand today.  “Trump And Kim Eager To Declare Success In Singapore ‘No Matter What Happens'”

We will spare you such hot air, preferring to await news rather than front-running events.  You apply the Dim Un label to who you will…

Speaking of The Bash

We wonder why Time  is promoting a non-US standup comic as relevan?t  “‘If This is a Witch Hunt, Then Witches Exist.’ John Oliver Returns to Mueller’s Russia Investigation.”

As with a certain (so-called) “news” network hiring Brits, we tend to be suspicious of any “news” org that promotes a 41-year old foreigner.  Like the kneelers have some “special insight” since we kicked their asses back in 1776? Like we don’t have comics in ‘Merica?

Someone has an agenda…right?

IQ Research says the Brits are 7th brightest by IQ and we’re in ninth place.  Watching too much British infiltrated TV, perhaps?  Ah, colonialism, the gift that never stops giving.

Like social media, if you have time for late night TV, you’re wasting your life, as we see it.


Mostly bond issuances today, but tomorrow the CPI figures will be out, and up.  Only question is how far.

Triple A Fuel Gauge pegs regular at $2.921 today.  A year ago it was $.339 a gallon, so almost a 25% hike there.

You have to consider rent likely hasn’t come down, but the Fed could care less, since their calculus is based on “core” inflation – which is inflation less food and energy – like those increases aren’t real.  Denial expected in the data.

“Let’s Get Bernie!”

Given a choice, a socialist Bernie is better than these folks: DNC votes to require Dem 2020 primary candidates be registered party members.  The same people who sacked Bernie from getting a fair run in 2016.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders: Starbucks CEO ‘dead wrong’ on government-run healthcare.

Watch for G7 Aftermath

As G7 summit ended: Donald Trump lashes out at America’s key allies.

Answered, too: ‘Fair trade, fool trade’, Trump’s tweets spew ire on NATO allies, Trudeau.

This may take a while to sink into people…but trade troubles aren’t going anywhere.

Futures are about even…my happy-dance shoes will remain in the closet today, looks like.

Moron the ‘morrow, then…

12 thoughts on “The 68-Day Screamer?”

  1. Wow, George, it’s been a loooonnggg time since I’ve seen .339 gas. I’m guessing 1970 at least! Can you tell us where that station is, because I want to fill up my Prius!

  2. Well George you know this country is in a steep decline,morally,fiscally any area you wish to look at,the market means little to nothing and has ever since Greenspan decide to involve the Fed in it back in the 80’s,nothing but smoke and mirrors as the elites battle back and forth so see who can screw who, and its been mostly the working class that has come out on the short end, while this report and that report tells us everything is booming except the take pay of course,and what;s coming ain’t going to be pretty but necessary,well if we survive it that is…..

    • Not counting the spending bill..the way I read it.. The average millionaire is going to be the next stepping stone for the puppetmasters

  3. With all this information at my hand I still don’t know which way “the cat (Zeus) will jump,” excepting for the 200-period simple moving average. Great entertainment, though. :)

  4. I am currently in Facebook jail. For 3 days for being “rude and offensive”. Lmao got reported by some liberal women I know.

  5. New format is dull reductionist and depressing . Some ads might brighten things up a bit

  6. George l retired from the car business after 33 years 3 months ago. I need some information. I want to get into ham radio. There is a local club here. I want a heads up. What would you suggest for a $1000-$1500 expenditure. Tia.

  7. The reason the USA IQ is not at the top of the IQ ladder is irrelevant. Starting after WW II (The big one), the US began to aggressively import the best minds in the world from Germany & Asia & continues it until today even though the liberals are trying to offset it. That is why the US has the best research & technology. We have the best people & the most money. The smart ones who develop the new technology know it is better to live in the USA than the homeland.

    Secondly, we have garages & the freedom necessary where Steve Jobs like people can ferment & develop.

  8. “trade troubles aren’t going anywhere.”

    I totally see what our president is trying to do.
    America sells cookies..the baker (usa) has to buy the ingredients and equipment to make the cookies we sell..we sell them for a dollar but it costs us a dollar twenty to make them.
    And ten percent of the salesmen are keeping their profits in another country.
    He is just trying to even up the checkbook before we have to claim bankruptcy.

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