Back of the Envelope Economics (BotEE) class is now in session!
Look at how we continue replaying 1929:
If there is a correspondence between where we were and 1929 (late spring) and the recent (late spring) correction that may end this week, we could be about to replay the final rally of 1929.
Of course it won’t be the 68-days that it took to run from the breakout (June 27, 1929 on a weekly basis) to the all-time high in early September of 1929.
That’s because the market had Saturday trading. If we back that out, adding 20% to correct from 6-day a week to less manic 5-day weeks, we will more likely see a market peak 82-days hence. Around August 2nd.
That’s an interesting date and maybe it will work out slower, after all, the Fed is pulling the strings here. And their latest H.6 Money Stocks report says they have been pouring on the coal – a higher market is almost a given.
You can increase the run rate of M1 printing from 1.4 percent annualized (basis the 3-month) at the end of March to 3.9 percent at the end of May, and not have a major “leak into markets.”
Still, lots of news this week which will ultimately be blamed, even if we see the Fed wants things to go higher based on their print rate.
Not that we’re surprised:
Right now, the bear case is looking stronger…Bitcoin tumbles as hackers hit S.Korean exchange Coinrail.
We still figure Bitcoin will go into the history books as the modern – equally useless – analog to tulips! Made-up money creating made-up wealth with no intrinsic value except for the “good story” swallowed hook, line and sinker.
Adventures of Dim Un
President Trump’s efforts to reach a stand-down with North Korea got a typical NPR back-hand today. “Trump And Kim Eager To Declare Success In Singapore ‘No Matter What Happens'”
We will spare you such hot air, preferring to await news rather than front-running events. You apply the Dim Un label to who you will…
Speaking of The Bash
We wonder why Time is promoting a non-US standup comic as relevan?t “‘If This is a Witch Hunt, Then Witches Exist.’ John Oliver Returns to Mueller’s Russia Investigation.”
As with a certain (so-called) “news” network hiring Brits, we tend to be suspicious of any “news” org that promotes a 41-year old foreigner. Like the kneelers have some “special insight” since we kicked their asses back in 1776? Like we don’t have comics in ‘Merica?
Someone has an agenda…right?
IQ Research says the Brits are 7th brightest by IQ and we’re in ninth place. Watching too much British infiltrated TV, perhaps? Ah, colonialism, the gift that never stops giving.
Like social media, if you have time for late night TV, you’re wasting your life, as we see it.
Mostly bond issuances today, but tomorrow the CPI figures will be out, and up. Only question is how far.
Triple A Fuel Gauge pegs regular at $2.921 today. A year ago it was $.339 a gallon, so almost a 25% hike there.
You have to consider rent likely hasn’t come down, but the Fed could care less, since their calculus is based on “core” inflation – which is inflation less food and energy – like those increases aren’t real. Denial expected in the data.
“Let’s Get Bernie!”
Given a choice, a socialist Bernie is better than these folks: DNC votes to require Dem 2020 primary candidates be registered party members. The same people who sacked Bernie from getting a fair run in 2016.
Watch for G7 Aftermath
This may take a while to sink into people…but trade troubles aren’t going anywhere.
Futures are about even…my happy-dance shoes will remain in the closet today, looks like.
Moron the ‘morrow, then…