We begin this morning with a brief recounting of the conversation I just had with my editor, Zeus the ‘Charlie Alfa Tango, Actual” who advises us on great spiritual and financial matters. (It’s what black cats do.)
If you haven’t seen the quotes yet, the Bitcoins that we had previously advised were “In the Great Hesitation” prior to a final upside blow-out, have blown out today and were up to $3,287.50 in the early going today, although it backed off in a few minutes to $3,270 and change.
I should take a bow here, since we have been telling you that a blow-off to the upside with BTC’s would likely come along about the same time the market was going through the roof.
This leaves us with very few expectations to be filled.
Although the BTC’s could nudge up to the $4,000 level, we are still not playing the dangerous game of top-calling. Getting that one wrong can be expensive.
Nonetheless, we have to acknowledge that when past bubbles, like the 1929 event, have gone through a “Great hesitation” and thence into the final (stratospheric) run-up phase of a bubble, an increase of 10-25% would not have been an unreasonable projection. So 25% on top of $3,300 call it, would put us just over the $4,200 level.
This is not to put that out as a target level. It’s just something to consider. The fifth wave up in any major move can end as soon as the Elliott wave principles are met.
These tend to specify that the fifth wave up should never be the smallest wave. That’s an honor reserved for the first wave up – except in the rare case of a fifth wave failure, which this no longer seems to be.
To put that into perspective, we can look at the wave 1 up in BTC’s and argue all day long about how big the first wave was.
At https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg1460ztgMzm1g10zm2g25zv we can look at a longer view of BTC’s and see that wave one up was likely the 2013-2014 period. Make sure to click on four year view under options.
Here, the BTCs we up from around $70 to about $1,150. We don’t need to be too precise on this stuff – it’s the big picture that matters. Call wave 1 up 1,080 points.
Again, as a generality, fifth waves up must be at least equal to wave 1.
Knowing this, we look at this chart to find a recent low in Bitcoins:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg180ztgMzm1g10zm2g25zv this time, however, click on the 6-month view.
What we see is a recent low (as part of a Great hesitation) around $1,950.
This means the minimum upside should be ($1,080 + 1,950) $3,030.
Since we have done that already today, we need to look at higher levels. In this case, 1.5 times the Wave 1 is worth thinking about.
The simple math on this ((1080 * 1.5)+1,950) = $3,570.
Many times, though, the move is 1.618 (Fibonacci number) or 1.75 to 1.8 times Wave 1.
We don’t just pull numbers out of thin air on this stuff.
But that doesn’t mean we have to play it, either.
Blockheads of Maryland
How many times have I told you in the past words to the effect “There must be something in the water of the Northeast that makes people crazy”? Quite a few, I’m sure.
So now we have a city (College Park) in Maryland that is looking at giving illegals – which they gratuitously call “undocumented immigrants” because illegal aliens is what they really are, the right to VOTE.
This is about the most insane thing I have heard of in a long time.
Please note that in the recent (troubled) elections in Venezuela, there was no allowing foreigners to vote. Why, if that had been permitted, I’m pretty sure the C.I.A. would have operated non-stop, round-the-clock voter airlifts to “swing” the vote in whatever direction they were buying.
By the same token, when the elections were pending in Ukraine, a good while back, the U.S. State Department since a neocon Princess to pass out cookies. But, alas, no airlifts for Americans so we could vote in Kiev.
When I read about the miscreants of Maryland trying to unilaterally allow non-citizen voting, I’m reminded of the dolts in Congress (and a recent White House space-holder) who seemed to think the same thing.
In short, they somehow believe that America doesn’t have borders – and they worked very hard to pull off that charade.
What many of the liberals missed was that by effectively scuttling borders, it cleared the way for ICE and DHS to stop and search pretty much anyone they felt like within 100 miles of the border. The ACLU (which we don’t often agree with)_ did get this one right, calling it the Constitution-Free Zone,.
All of which gets us down to a simple “call to action” this morning.
If you know anyone in College Park, Maryland, try to get them into treatment as soon as possible.
FAILING THAT, maybe you could get them on the waiting list for a brain transplant.
Those Zombies of Illinois
From the poster-kids for bankruptcy:
We are also appalled that the state of Illinois – already on the financial ropes and running low of fiscal responsibility – should be working on a reasonable management agenda. You know, cut costs, improve worker productivity and such.
But is this happening in the “Land of Blagojevich?”
I would offer that this is a terrible slight to the other occupants of the Oval who have been lumped into Presidents’ Day.
Like a bad game show, American politics has gone Komatsu.
You know…Komatsu, the Japanese outfit that makes those cool long-reach excavators? Why are we dead-set on burying our nation’s sanity?
With this kind of behavior in Illinois, we expect the pension funds will be passing the hat for a bail out one of these days.
You can put in the hat whatever you want, buy I’d suggest brains instead of money. What a change, huh?
Write when you get rich,