Consumer Price Chill

Is it real?  A major improvement in inflation prospects this morning in the new consumer price report:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter continued to rise in October, offsetting a decline in the gasoline index and resulting in the seasonally adjusted index being unchanged over the month. The energy index fell 2.5 percent over the month as a 5.0-percent decline in the gasoline index more than offset increases in other energy component indexes. The food index increased 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.2 percent in September. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in October, after rising 0.3 percent in September. Indexes which increased in October include rent, owners’ equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, recreation, and personal care. The indexes for lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, communication, and airline fares were among those that decreased over the month.

The AMAZING part is what this looks like based on screaming futures prices on Wall Street.

Pardon us while we barf.

The Fed core rate is still 4 percent which is double the long-term target.  Look for the Street to kill some bears today, though.

Now, go read the rest of this morning’s column with this change of sea state in mind.  And look what this does with the ghost lines.


25 thoughts on “Consumer Price Chill”

  1. “The food index increased 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.2 percent in September. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.”

    I wonder how far we have to drive to get that kind of sure isn’t that way here
    sounds more like wishful thinking or is it just more creative accounting by the administration.. lol lol lol

    • I found you a freezer!

      Manitowoc 3 door commercial freezer, fully functioning. The dimensions are 80″ tall (plus 4″ for the pallet) x 78″ wide x 34″ deep.

      Current Price $200.00 (this is probably all it’ll sell for, if it sells at all, even though it’s a $9k freezer…)

      You could keep the whole cow in this one — hair, teeth, and eyeballs included!

      Oh, and it’s made in Wisconsin…

      • wow that is nice thanks Ray.. I think I am going to put a bid on it.. I wonder what it would cost to ship it..
        still amazes me that the dishwasher sells in turkey for under five dollars.. I need something that is a commercial one Made in the USA..our first dishwasher lasted for over twenty years..but then it was made in the midwest not turkey or china.. luckily I have six freezers.. it just happened that the one that was the newest was the one to fail during the first power outage.. on top of it when they cut the power they cut the gas to.. so the backup generator didn’t kick in.. making a real mess.. a learning exercise..I did give thom a call and ordered more retort packages.. I was going to get the one pound packages to put bacon in.. but he told me how he does bacon in the half pound.. I am so going to do that.. I had asked about Hobart freezers.. but the price is out of my range of payment..

        • It will weigh closer to 600 pounds.

          Have you ever used U-Ship?

          U-Ship is an auction. You list what it is you want shipped, from where to where, and people will proffer bids, bidding on how much (how little?) they would charge to load, move, and unload your stuff.

          I suggest you preemptively register on U-Ship.

          You will have to register at Public Surplus and register a credit or debit card in order to bid. If you bid on something and the bidding exceeds $500, you will be required to make a “bid deposit” — a $50 hold on your ccard, which they release immediately if you don’t win the auction (unlike every other merchant.)

          The auction ending time is fluid. If there is a bid within five minutes of the time that’s listed as the auction close, ending time for the auction is extended by five minutes from the moment of that bid.

          Should you decide to actually bid on this freezer, if you win the auction, immediately post the particulars (pick-up and drop-off addresses, LxWxD in inches or feet, and estimated weight) on U-Ship. I have listed stuff on U-Ship and gotten initial offers above $1200, where later bids were under $400. The longer your listing goes, the lower the bids will be, as someone with a 30 or 40 foot trailer will get a transport job from Bay City or Saginaw (Caro is ~25 miles east of Saginaw), or a load of Christmas trees from Frankenmuth, and be able to transport a 6’x6′ box from Caro for virtually nothing.

          I have not purchased stuff in Caro, so I don’t know how easy-going they are. Public Surplus’ rule is: You have 5 business days to pay, after you receive the invoice. Each individual seller decides how soon your purchase must be gone, but they generally give you 5 days after the invoice is paid, to pick your stuff up, unless you contact them. I have dealt with sellers who demanded that stuff be picked-up within 5 days of receiving an invoice, 10 days of paying an invoice, 30 days after contacting the seller’s agent, or on a specific day at a specific time (and everywhere, in-between.) Generally, sellers are pretty laid-back if you contact them in a timely manner (the exception being those who require pick-up at a specific time. These people are emptying out a building or warehouse and they have to be gone by a specific time, so you gets yer stuff or it goes into a landfill…) I would guess that if you’re using U-Ship and ask the seller how to go about doing so, they’ll give you much leeway and walk you through the process of “3rd Party Pickups.”

          I DO suggest you poke around the Public Surplus site and see what all is up for auction (I pick a city, then run a search out 100 miles). PS is not the best government asset auction site, but it is the easiest to use. Also, I’ve seen listings of everything from a Piper Cherokee (airplane) to a professional zither, on the site (I actually bought a zither and a concert autoharp for my musician kid, once…)

      • I wasn’t sure what it weighed but put three hundred pounds for it.. not bad on uship.. about six hundred dollars so the whole thing will sell for about eight hundred delivered.. that isn’t bad at all.. and lots of space.. It would fit perfectly where the old one was.. nice.. going to see what I have to do to bid on it.. and get the bid in.. Thanks Again Ray I truly do appreciate that a lot….Made in wisconsin.. last me the rest of my life .. american made .. phew..

    • Drive time to the source is a good question.

      Maybe an $AMZN/$EBAY/$WMT index is a better measure.

      Ask @ $WMT for Pringles is $2.24 for a 5 oz package which amounts to about 140 chips. Each new chip crunch costs 1.6 cents. Crunch six or seven chips at a time and it starts adding up.


    and in other places in the world..

    Rev 16
    1And I heard a great voice out of the temple saying to the seven angels, Go your ways, and pour out the vials of the wrath of God upon the earth.

    2And the first went, and poured out his vial upon the earth; and there fell a noisome and grievous sore upon the men which had the mark of the beast, and upon them which worshipped his image.

    3.And the second angel poured out his vial upon the sea; and it became as the blood of a dead man: and every living soul died in the sea.

    4.And the third angel poured out his vial upon the rivers and fountains of waters; and they became blood. 5.And I heard the angel of the waters say, Thou art righteous, O Lord, which art, and wast, and shalt be, because thou hast judged thus. 6.For they have shed the blood of saints and prophets, and thou hast given them blood to drink; for they are worthy. 7.And I heard another out of the altar say, Even so, Lord God Almighty, true and righteous are thy judgments.

    8.And the fourth angel poured out his vial upon the sun; and power was given unto him to scorch men with fire. 9.And men were scorched with great heat, and blasphemed the name of God, which hath power over these plagues: and they repented not to give him glory.

    10.And the fifth angel poured out his vial upon the seat of the beast; and his kingdom was full of darkness; and they gnawed their tongues for pain, 11.and blasphemed the God of heaven because of their pains and their sores, and repented not of their deeds.

    12.And the sixth angel poured out his vial upon the great river Euphrates; and the water thereof was dried up, that the way of the kings of the east might be prepared. 13.And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs come out of the mouth of the dragon, and out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet. 14.For they are the spirits of devils, working miracles, which go forth unto the kings of the earth and of the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that great day of God Almighty. 15.Behold, I come as a thief. Blessed is he that watcheth, and keepeth his garments, lest he walk naked, and they see his shame. 16.And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue Armageddon.

    17.And the seventh angel poured out his vial into the air; and there came a great voice out of the temple of heaven, from the throne, saying, It is done. 18.And there were voices, and thunders, and lightnings; and there was a great earthquake, such as was not since men were upon the earth, so mighty an earthquake, and so great. 19.And the great city was divided into three parts, and the cities of the nations fell: and great Babylon came in remembrance before God, to give unto her the cup of the wine of the fierceness of his wrath. 20. And every island fled away, and the mountains were not found. 21. And there fell upon men a great hail out of heaven, every stone about the weight of a talent: and men blasphemed God because of the plague of the hail; for the plague thereof was exceeding great.

  3. you really believe that bullscheisse ??

    trading the the adjustment (s) to come.

    -I cant wrap my head around sheep still believing ANYTHING coming out of district of PEDOPHILIA & CORRUPTION.

    How many booster shotz did you Geniuses end up taking ?

  4. ‘Creative Accounting’ by the last administration has sent the Republican party to the poor house, election deniers’ stuck with legal bills… Swing State MI literally had State Republicans ‘swinging’ on each other (physical fights)…how low did they have to stoop to get that kind of deal lol!

    p.s. why do I get automated ‘duplicate comment’ reply, ‘you’ve already said that?

  5. Apparently they don’t include insurance rates in the inflation figures. Our homeowners’ insurance went up 44% at the start of this policy year. Given the fact they won’t pay for damages caused by war, insurrection or riot, we might be better off without insurance.

    • If you have no house loan, you might seriously consider going naked(no insurance). Put the insurance money aside and buy fire extinguishers. Stay aware, and live with greater awareness than the insured.

  6. Regards Mr. Ure,
    Your work means a lot to me, so in hopes of guidance I ask…

    With so many nations showing ‘hockey stick’ debt graphs at the same time and seemingly flippant deficit spending…
    Why should I care about trying to pay down my debts? Shouldn’t I just max out the credit I have left going after items and supplies (while I still can) that will serve me before the whole thing falls in on itself?
    How can so many countries have so much debt all at the same time? Who do they owe it to?
    It feels like the undertow that will only be disclosed by MSM after it has already happened.
    Like most, I’m not savvy to the finer economic intricacies, just foreboding and a collective Han Solo’s “I’ve got a bad feeling about this”.

    The rug is being pulled from under our feet by those that think they own the floor.

      • Look forward to next week’s PN. I need a landing zone.

        I spent the morning going to 3 nursing homes to visit 3 friends about my age. First stop, friend was on the toilet with a nurse wiping his butt. Second stop he was not there. He goes out for kidney dialysis 3 days a week. Only thing that keeps him alive. Third stop, he was out cold in a dead sleep (mid-morning).

        As I walked down the hallways to the rooms, I saw dozens of elderly residents sitting in their wheelchairs, some facing the wall, some asleep, some in obvious pain and a very few responding to a wave and a smile underneath the mask I was required to wear.

        I did notice that none of the TV screens were tuned to the news channels. That’s a blessing. In one home, there was a 50s comedy on the screen. In another, a sing-a-long video. People sat and stared.

        I work hard to take good care of myself and love sharing health suggestions with others on this site. I joke that I want to die healthy with my foot on the gas pedal. That said, I would not do well in a nursing home George. Not well at all, unless my mental faculties totally collapse.

        Really struggling with this one today.

        • BIC ure not alone with those thoughts of the unavoidable, but our belief of continuity of conscience gives us hope. having lost all parents and grandparents,,, we are near the end of the roller coaster ride, throttle on,
          only the dead don’t move,,, life is movement
          I still sing out ‘Zippity do dah,,, Cheers my good man,,, I’ve got stuff to do

        • Do you have kids?

          Move in with them, if possible, or have them move in with you.

          I hear it all the time: “I don’t want to impose on my kids.”

          Okay, then, move closer.

          Okay, then, move to an Independent Living facility closer to them.

          No Kids??? Still make a plan.

          Plan now for later.

          Have an 80 plus year old customer; he’s got Parkinson’s. He lives almost 200 miles from his 2 kids. He is starting to have mobility issues, and he’s lost a lot of weight. He’s lonely. He’s losing weight because he isn’t eating correctly. AND, Parkinson’s affects the vocal chords and eating ability so he has to work harder to get the same calories and nutrition as before.

          So, as a friend, I go over and assess his situation. I went to his house, huge, and the design is concrete floors. He tells me he is looking into an independent living facility close to his 2 children (he is on the outs with the daughter, but is on better terms with the son). He says he realizes he is having trouble walking and could fall. He realizes he wants to be closer to his children. His 2nd wife died over 6 years ago and he has been alone. He is living in an unclean and unsanitary situation because he cannot clean and he will not allow anyone in to help him. He is tired of eating alone. He makes his own breakfast but goes out for dinner. He wants to keep his house, so will lock it up when he’s gone, and while he can still drive, he will make the trip back to visit the house/area when he wants to, and when he passes away, the house will be sold as per his will/estate/wishes. He says he is interested in moving into independent living to be closer to his son and grandchildren, although, the relationships are not that good. He does not want to live with his son. I tell him plainly and nicely.

          1. Right now, YOU can make ALL the decisions for the rest of your life. AFTER one bad fall, you won’t be someone else will.
          2. Heal your relationships with your children, if possible. Being closer will make that easier.
          3. Living in an Independent Living place down the street from his son, means he will have and can sign up for 3 square meals a day, they have happy hour, they take you places, there are other people there for company and friendship, they clean your apartment once a week, they can help or do the laundry, there is room for you to park your car, etc.
          4. You can still drive 200 miles to check on your home and visit with old friends, but there may come a day, when you don’t want to make that drive, and you will already be set up and settled in your independent living situation.
          5. Go now while you are healthy enough to make new friends, develop new healthcare relationships, AND most importantly, set up everything the way that YOU like it, etc.

          2nd customer, 80. Bachelor. He has mobility issues, too. He already lives in a Independent Living facility, BUT, it transitions to Assisted Living. (Some even transition into nursing homes, at the very end….but not so, if not needed.)

          We have become close to these old fellas. Both are still driving. The 2nd one had me come over yesterday because he couldn’t get his key out of the ignition of his classic car. Turned out, he did not have the car in Park. He can barely put his huge feet in the car to begin with due to his mobility issues. He is using a walker now.

          First man needs to heed guidance and advice, but not necessarily from me.

          Second man is in the right place. His closest cousin is 1300 miles away. He already said he is too old to make that trip by car.

          I know all of this because I took care of a dear Dad and watched and went through it all.

          Dad’s keys were removed at 80. He got to keep his car, we disconnected the battery and it sat in the garage. He could not drive safely.

          These 2 old guys are lucky to still be driving.

          Do not ignore the warning signs.

          Make a plan.

          MOVE IT, if need be.

          STAY if that’s the best place for you.

          Make sure your paperwork is in order; the Durable Power of Attorney and Medical Health Directive, REALLY WORK so that family members or the one assigned can make decisions for you when you need help.

          One more story. Met my friend when she was 78. She lived to be 92. She was 1600 miles away from her 2 daughters. I became an adopted daughter, we had 14 wonderful years of friendship, and I eventually spent more time with her in those years than her daughters.

          She insisted on living alone to not impose on her children AND she was close to an Army base where she got good care for being an Army wife.

          Eventually, she was really alone. I encouraged her to move closer, many many times, she was stubborn, insisting she didn’t want to impose on them – missing out on so many wonderful times together.

          At 92, she finally decided to move, the one daughter couldn’t handle any stress, so I helped pack her Mom up, and hugged and kissed her goodbye promising to see her within a few months.

          Well she moved, and they had her move into an expensive independent living place in the same town. She did see more of one daughter.

          4 months later.

          I called her on Christmas Eve, she passed away Christmas Day. One of the daughter’s grieved so very badly and hard.

          I did not grieve because I had made a place and way for her, and sacrificed to do so, so had no regrets. She was a wonderful woman, person, and friend.

          Do NOT fear the Reaper. He comes for all, but for some of us, we already know how we are gonna go, and it isn’t going to be bad at all.

          So, God Bless You.

        • When I picture of a nursing home, I think of Joe Matheson — Morgan Freeman’s character in the Bruce Willis movie Red.

          That is the “Hollywood nursing home” which likely doesn’t exist in real life.

          One of my brothers passed away a few months back. As the result of a botched knee replacement, he spent his last seven years, bedfast in a nursing home. The nursing home in which he was imprisoned is a warehouse. $6000+ per month to occupy half of a 10×10 room, and seemingly half the times I’d visit, his roommate would be sitting in a puddle of his own urine. It is also allegedly one of the “best” nursing homes in the area.

          There is absolutely no effin’ way…

          I would shoot somebody and go to prison first — the levels of care and sanitation would be several orders of magnitude higher.

          There is no struggle, Bob. The nursing home route is the road most of George’s readership will never allow themselves to follow. It is simply unacceptable. I could never trade in my hammer for a shuffleboard pusher or my notepad for a BINGO card. The reason I take supplements and take my “old man meds” as prescribed is so I can die with my foot on the gas pedal (thanks — I really like that expression.) As I have said before, their purpose is not to make me live longer, but to make me live better, for whatever time I DO have.

          All I’ve got for you, my friend, is to take yer ABCDE plus choline and zinc, and keep that go-pedal mashed. I’m down to about six hairs, but the wind still feels good, blowing them around…

  7. The stock market is still going up from a short squeeze. If you want to play the stock crash meme, there is a hedge fund waiting to clean Ure plowshare. Can’t see anything but the title on this one, but it gives you the idea of what is happening:

    Pricing is no longer based on fundamentals, but is based on who hedge fund managers can con into floating bets against them into a market controlled by them. The hedge funds in turn are kept liquid by the Fed’s bottomless purse and no or low interest capital. The appearance of prosperity is a rigged corporate and Fed con game.

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