When I got up this morning, stock futures were up another 200 on the Dow and the balance of the market was looking bouncy as well.  Things have calmed down a bit.  But the big deal is the Fed statement tomorrow.

The problem – which we’ve repeated many times over – is that there has not been a “full recovery” in personal activities thanks to the virus (which will pass 30-million this week in global cases).  Sports has cratered, entertainment is on the ropes.  (When will the new Top Gun be out, anyway?).  Airlines are in trouble.  Cruise lines on the ropes… There’s a strong case the economy ought to be downn around the March lows…

But the Federal Reserve has -thus far – managed to “print-over Reality” by simply making up more money than this POS economy deserves.

In fairness, the Fed is hiding behind its “dual mandate” (full employment and l/t growth) but the idiots in Washington forgot that it’d be nice if “the money still meant something” when all’s said and done.

Instead, all the new money being made up is landing in stock operator (hedge) funds and in the 1 percent’s bank accounts.

The Stupid Ape Problem

Humans ain’t particularly clever, though we like to think so.  Is it too hard to line up the dysfunctional and “in your face” data?

  • Evidence for Bad Economy
    • 10-million fewer people working than a year ago.
    • Stocks don’t pay dividends – mostly its a Great Fool gamble and that prices will be higher when you sell
    • Fed owns quarter to a third of all mortgages
    • CV-19 continues
    • Fires continue
    • China is saber rattling
    • Another hurricane’s making landfall
    • Money creation seems to us 30-35% above “what’s reasonable”
    • Sports (almost have a trillion of economic activity) is toast
    • Race, gender, and shame have been industrialized
    • Rioting is backed by Marxist elements inside US and given quarter in liberalista cities
    • Coup attempt like following election regardness of outcome.
  • Evidence for Good Economy
    • Rising stock market
    • Rising real estate prices (which relates to “easy money”)

Wow…just wow.  Before we get too rational, come over to the press release emporium and let’s drink some more of the financial Kool-Aid

Imported Goods Prices – Empire State Data

Just out 11.3% or higher inflation peeks out from the latest import price data:

“U.S. import prices rose 0.9 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following advances of 1.2 percent in July and 1.4 percent in June. Higher prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the August increase. Prices for U.S. exports also advanced in August, ising 0.5 percent, after increasing 0.9 percent the previous month.

Meanwhile, latest Empire State Manufacturing numbers will likely make it into the Fed briefing books for today’s FOMC kick-off:  Outlook climbed 13 points to 17 but here’s what caught our eye:

“The general business conditions index rose thirteen points to 17.0, its third consecutive positive reading. Forty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 23 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index climbed nine points to 7.1, pointing to a modest increase in orders, and the shipments index rose seven points to 14.1, indicating a significant increase in shipments. “

I know it looks good but I find it hard to be convinced that the Fed can print across the chasm we’re in.  I guess even in plane crashes, there’s no actual pain until the ground’s hit.  We’ve still got ink and that’s like having altitude.

But if this isn’t serious enough for you, head over to John Williams’ ShadowStats site Monetary Charts here and scroll down to the logrithmic change charts.  Whee!!!

Sally’s Big Wet Spot

Eastern LooselyAnna, lower Missus Sloppy but my-oh-my:  Look at Alabama:

15 t0 30-inches of rain…and you want to bet a few places will get over 30?

Fires Update

Still closing in on Portland.  And, as you can see in this map, Lionshead and Beachie Creek are essentially merged:

To put this in perspective, Beachie Creek is about 190-thousand acres with just under 300 miles of perimeter while Lionshead has 170-thousand acres and a roughly 270-mile perimeter…

Big?  You bet – but even the Lionshead and Beachie complex pales in comparison to the CalFires battlegrounds:

The good news – in the South Bay – is that the SCU Lightning complex involing Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties was 98% contained as of last night.   Refreshingly balanced view over here on the SF Gate website.

By the way, when you read about the National Environmental Policy Act being – in  part – to blame?  Realize that was enacted by president Johnson in 1970.  Environmental groups have been playing “pin the policy with the donkey’s” on it since.

Up in Oregon, the Beachie fire is zero percent contained…so smoke from the coast fires will be with us into mid to late October. Sheesh.

Short Takes

Beachcombing still pays: Lost something? Almost 150 pounds of pot found off the Florida Keys.

See which media cover this if you don’t believe in anti-Trump bias:  In  a more rational world, this would be important. Israel, Arab states set to sign Trump-brokered deals in White House ceremony.

Dems “sanctioning lawlessness” is the GOP cry in Oregon as Oregon Republican Lawmakers React to Arrest of Dem House Speaker’s Aide in Portland Riots.

Sure wish we had more “real news” to report….

More for  Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow – with a ton of charts updated.

Write when you get rich,