Balloon Economy – Rally to Where?

When I got up this morning, stock futures were up another 200 on the Dow and the balance of the market was looking bouncy as well.  Things have calmed down a bit.  But the big deal is the Fed statement tomorrow.

The problem – which we’ve repeated many times over – is that there has not been a “full recovery” in personal activities thanks to the virus (which will pass 30-million this week in global cases).  Sports has cratered, entertainment is on the ropes.  (When will the new Top Gun be out, anyway?).  Airlines are in trouble.  Cruise lines on the ropes… There’s a strong case the economy ought to be downn around the March lows…

But the Federal Reserve has -thus far – managed to “print-over Reality” by simply making up more money than this POS economy deserves.

In fairness, the Fed is hiding behind its “dual mandate” (full employment and l/t growth) but the idiots in Washington forgot that it’d be nice if “the money still meant something” when all’s said and done.

Instead, all the new money being made up is landing in stock operator (hedge) funds and in the 1 percent’s bank accounts.

The Stupid Ape Problem

Humans ain’t particularly clever, though we like to think so.  Is it too hard to line up the dysfunctional and “in your face” data?

  • Evidence for Bad Economy
    • 10-million fewer people working than a year ago.
    • Stocks don’t pay dividends – mostly its a Great Fool gamble and that prices will be higher when you sell
    • Fed owns quarter to a third of all mortgages
    • CV-19 continues
    • Fires continue
    • China is saber rattling
    • Another hurricane’s making landfall
    • Money creation seems to us 30-35% above “what’s reasonable”
    • Sports (almost have a trillion of economic activity) is toast
    • Race, gender, and shame have been industrialized
    • Rioting is backed by Marxist elements inside US and given quarter in liberalista cities
    • Coup attempt like following election regardness of outcome.
  • Evidence for Good Economy
    • Rising stock market
    • Rising real estate prices (which relates to “easy money”)

Wow…just wow.  Before we get too rational, come over to the press release emporium and let’s drink some more of the financial Kool-Aid

Imported Goods Prices – Empire State Data

Just out 11.3% or higher inflation peeks out from the latest import price data:

“U.S. import prices rose 0.9 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following advances of 1.2 percent in July and 1.4 percent in June. Higher prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the August increase. Prices for U.S. exports also advanced in August, ising 0.5 percent, after increasing 0.9 percent the previous month.

Meanwhile, latest Empire State Manufacturing numbers will likely make it into the Fed briefing books for today’s FOMC kick-off:  Outlook climbed 13 points to 17 but here’s what caught our eye:

“The general business conditions index rose thirteen points to 17.0, its third consecutive positive reading. Forty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 23 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index climbed nine points to 7.1, pointing to a modest increase in orders, and the shipments index rose seven points to 14.1, indicating a significant increase in shipments. “

I know it looks good but I find it hard to be convinced that the Fed can print across the chasm we’re in.  I guess even in plane crashes, there’s no actual pain until the ground’s hit.  We’ve still got ink and that’s like having altitude.

But if this isn’t serious enough for you, head over to John Williams’ ShadowStats site Monetary Charts here and scroll down to the logrithmic change charts.  Whee!!!

Sally’s Big Wet Spot

Eastern LooselyAnna, lower Missus Sloppy but my-oh-my:  Look at Alabama:

15 t0 30-inches of rain…and you want to bet a few places will get over 30?

Fires Update

Still closing in on Portland.  And, as you can see in this map, Lionshead and Beachie Creek are essentially merged:

To put this in perspective, Beachie Creek is about 190-thousand acres with just under 300 miles of perimeter while Lionshead has 170-thousand acres and a roughly 270-mile perimeter…

Big?  You bet – but even the Lionshead and Beachie complex pales in comparison to the CalFires battlegrounds:

The good news – in the South Bay – is that the SCU Lightning complex involing Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties was 98% contained as of last night.   Refreshingly balanced view over here on the SF Gate website.

By the way, when you read about the National Environmental Policy Act being – in  part – to blame?  Realize that was enacted by president Johnson in 1970.  Environmental groups have been playing “pin the policy with the donkey’s” on it since.

Up in Oregon, the Beachie fire is zero percent contained…so smoke from the coast fires will be with us into mid to late October. Sheesh.

Short Takes

Beachcombing still pays: Lost something? Almost 150 pounds of pot found off the Florida Keys.

See which media cover this if you don’t believe in anti-Trump bias:  In  a more rational world, this would be important. Israel, Arab states set to sign Trump-brokered deals in White House ceremony.

Dems “sanctioning lawlessness” is the GOP cry in Oregon as Oregon Republican Lawmakers React to Arrest of Dem House Speaker’s Aide in Portland Riots.

Sure wish we had more “real news” to report….

More for  Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow – with a ton of charts updated.

Write when you get rich,

21 thoughts on “Balloon Economy – Rally to Where?”

  1. I thought up a law suit.

    Most of these stores are using the wrong kind of hand sanitizers at their doors. The sanitizers are “over alcoholized” and “hazardous”. Why, if someone doused their hands with store, door sanitizer then say lit a smoke in their car, but still on the store’s lot,*whoosh*, a Mac Don sized payout.

    • Wow; you got it figured out! Join the bandwagon; it only took 300 Bolsheviks to bring down the Soviet Union GLORIFIED in over 60 million mostly White Christians slaughtered.

      What do you think WW2 was really about?

      Who do you think really ended up in the concentration camps?

      How many innocent women and children were raped and murdered?

      Oh you mean, you and your children didn’t read about that in your history books or classes?

      SO, you think all that can’t happen here?


  2. Pretty amazing times we live in! I think every reasonable American knows the ‘hard’ coup will commence after the election. The one question – will DOJ and DOD intervene to stop the coup? In my view, there has been a very lackluster response by DOJ and DOD to stop the very obvious ‘softer’ coup happening right now. Just to ask a few obvious questions from the perspective of a old Marine officer:

    –Has DOJ defunded Antifa and BLM by confiscating bank accounts and other assets??
    –Has DOJ and local law enforcement taken down ‘safe houses’, vehicles, and other terrorist infrastructure??
    –Has DOJ/DOD taken down any of the heads of Antifa and BLM??
    –Have there been ANY arrests other than the street level riot type arrests??

    To the first 3 questions, I see a big ‘NO’. The 4th question appears to be a ‘NO’ although I allow that a few covert take downs may have occurred outside of the riot settings.

    As far as I can see, the American people are on their own and the PTB seem to have little active interest in taking down an obvious coup. No, it’s not conspiracy theory. It’s as real as Pearl Harbor and other attacks. It’s in your face as things could get here in America!

    • Kristallnacht: “The German authorities looked on without intervening.”

      Hmmm…… wait a minute. I can’t quite put my finger on it.

    • It looks to me that they’re all in on it, except for the issue of distributing the potential loot. We should NOT compare current US issues with the history of Germany during the late 20/early 30s. ;-(

      • The recycling of the European political symbols is part of an effort to build a mythology palatable to American youth in support of current leftist operations. There is nothing to it other than merchandising. The meme which attracts soldiers who can fight street battles and hold turf is the one which is fashionable with the leftist recruiters.

    • –Has DOJ defunded Antifa and BLM
      –Has DOJ …taken down … terrorist infrastructure??
      –Has DOJ/DOD taken down any of the heads of Antifa and BLM??
      –Have there been ANY arrests other than the street level riot type arrests??

      No, no, no, and no.

      DOJ (the Feds) only have jurisdiction over Federal property.
      DOJ can (and is) investigating people who’ve crossed State lines to foment rioting.
      DOJ isn’t picking up any players yet, because (at the behest of Messrs. Trump and Paul) it is trying to build a “money trail” which will stand up as evidence, in court.
      DOJ, in the form of the U.S. Marshall’s Service and the Secret Service, have taken the lead on investigations, since the degree of political infiltration into the FBI is still an unknown.

      The Insurrection Act makes it legal for the CiC to establish a military governorship and forcibly (if necessary) take over an (otherwise civilian) area within the United States.

      Messrs. Eisenhower and Bush43, respectively, made it possible for the Feds to override local rule, and local/State law, and administer Federal Law using the Military and the U.S. Marshall, WITHOUT invoking the Insurrection Act. Mr. Kennedy used the initial iteration of this to forcibly break down the level of racial discrimination in the South in general, and in Alabama in particular, and to hunt down & prosecute some murdering Klansmen whom State and local authorities refused.

      Mr. Trump does not, at this time, believe anything is sufficiently out of hand to justify his assumption of CiC over an American city or territory. (In other words, there’s an Election coming up for a lot of officials other than Da Prez. He’s waiting to see if people in Minnesota, Washington, and Oregon have had enough of Democratic politics to “vote da bums out”). He is also acutely aware that anything he does whatsoever will be spun as a “bad thing” by the media.

      The hard-core communists (BLM) and fascists (“ANTIFA”) promise to “burn it all down” if Trump is re-elected… ‘Thing is, they promised to “burn it all down” irrespective whomever the President might be, just months ago.

      Everyone in pretty much the entire world who has a nose to politics, knows the permanent funding source for each, (and for most of the “White-supremacist” and “skinhead” groups) is a certain Hungarian NAZI. What no one knows is how to trace the money through the myriad firewalls which have been constructed between this individual, and money or aid changing hands. Folks’ve been trying to catch him for nigh onto 30 years now, and no one has yet been successful. Interpol and MI-5 both gave up. I sincerely hope we don’t…

      I suggest you ensure your safety, then buy a great big bag of popcorn and some butter, and perhaps a case or 12 of your favorite beverage, and just watch the show. It may not be pretty, but it’s sureashell gonna be interesting…

  3. The SF Gate has plenty OF liberal phantasy (phantasy is sometimes confused with fantasy).
    There are no sawmills because the nuts said we have no need for sawmills.

    I quit reading Kalifnutso publications 35 years ago.

  4. Here is some news worth noting…

    After claiming that Apple watches are yesterday’s technology and that Neuralink is the future…

    Elon Musk has spent much of the past few weeks plugging Neuralink, a futuristic technology that aims to connect the human brain to a computer interface via an implanted computer chip.

    He says it could one day enable people to save and replay memories, and control cars and other devices with their minds. However, according to Musk Neuralink’s first priority will be “helping with dire brain injuries.”

    The company is currently testing the technology out on animals, and Musk conducted a live demonstration on August 28, during which the neural signals from a pig were displayed on a graph.

    • I have a hard time imagining a timeline for such tech, outside of those with severe non healing injuries. Human are awful at writing error free code and making secure hardware. Can you imagine the monthly patches for your Neuralink? Not me, maybe it could be made completely external over time with improvements in sensors. But never would have have anything with “software” installed in such a permanent risk adverse environment.

      Of course I cannot imagine why people still use Facebook, so there certainly could be big market for those companies that provide subsidized hardware so they can read your thoughts to collect even more personal information.

  5. George

    “Eastern LooselyAnna, lower Missus Sloppy but my-oh-my: Look at Alabama:”

    Me and the Mrs. are very grateful that the storm side stepped us in Slidell. The winds would have damaged our roof for sure!

    For those in it’s path we pray that the impact will be minimal!!

    We have both slogged thru storm waters before so we have had our turn in hell.

    For those who have not had that fun pray you never do.

  6. Star Trek, here we come,,we are Borg,,we are controlled,,and they willingly take the Mark of the Beast

    What say you ,,STUDLY,Andy, what does your cosmic insight think of this,computerized human animal? We could listen to Don Juan Matus’ opinion

    • “What say you ,,STUDLY,Andy, what does your cosmic insight think of this,computerized human animal? We could listen to Don Juan Matus’ opinion”


      Andy is on top of it.. I stopped in at the local craft store to get some diamond dust. Asked this beautiful woman if she seen any on the shelf. She asked why I explained the cardboard box project.. I made an andy type playful comment and ended up having a really good Andy style morning.. all because of a cardboard box and a smart azz comment who would have imagined.

  7. Some 20 years ago I used to listen to Michael Savage. Today I listened to him again, after a hiatus of several years.

    Conclusion: Yes it’s finished, there is no chance in hell to safe our previous lifestyle. Too few of US listened then — fewer listen now!!

    Sorry GU that all your writing will go down the proverbal drain. ;(((
    Ther’re just not enough of US vs. way too many of them, and then and then ther is this so-called DEMOCRACY ;-).

  8. Hi George good update as usual. Been away haven’t offered wit you may have noticed. Had a gut full of this bs. Massive shorts everything . Say nothing. Good honest update

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