Can charts tell us what to expect this coming week? In several areas – cryptos, bonds, inflation, and war – we have concerns about what charts are telling us about the future. An odd mix of regression channels, understanding how to apply the logistic function and implications of Elliott wave developments matter now. This morning, … Read More
I lost money in a short position Thursday. My loss? $14. How disaster was avoided was the diligent use of stops. Usually of the “on quote” variety. The core idea being every trade starts off being about a 50-50 proposition. (See Burton Malkiel et. al A Random Walk Down Wall Street). Based on work by … Read More
I suppose we should begin this morning’s roll by unveiling the new Consumer Price report just out from Labor: “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last … Read More
Election Day-After Limbo is a dandy time for this topic; voters have spoken and will change follow? (No) The general topic around here this week has been “How many people” are really needed in a company? There are several ways to approach the problem: Big picture, sampling of various companies by sector, and even building up … Read More
This being Election Day, we’re taking the unusual move of not talking about anything on the ballot – of is pretended to be so damn urgent that you have to vote for one clown, or another, who can’t change the Law of the Land single-handed, anyway. Have fun with that. We don’t know which one … Read More
There is a (sick) high art in Politics, American style. Non-Solution. Issues come up, are cast about as “major campaign issues” – planks in party platforms – and despite being there (in the case of abortion rights) for more than half a century, they just never seem to get solved. Mind you, I’m not the … Read More
A month or two back, Elaine mentioned that a couple of the stair treads on the short stairs (from the BBQ deck down to the shop walkway) were cracked and looking sketchy. This whole BBQ deck was a one-day build 10+ years ago. And those stairs were built with two risers, not three. So, maybe … Read More
When there is a “known” event of major magnitude on the way, markets often hint in advance what to expect. This is most often done with price changes. Markets running up ahead of an event are called “Buy the rumor” and the decline following is often labeled the “Sell the news” aspect. With (at best) … Read More
Much to cover before “off to the Courthouse” to pay our 2023 Property Taxes after a busy Thursday. Let’s begin by inspecting the Employment Situation Report (EmpSit) just out from Labor, shall we? “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor … Read More
Braced for a Crash-lection? Might consider it! The early futures were telling us little that we didn’t know after the market fell on its nose more than 500 Dow points Wednesday. As the Fed not only raised 3/4 percent but said another 1/2 percent was baked in the cake – and they will entertain ideas … Read More
If the first Industrial Revolution was water and steam power, while the second has been electricity and network-pushed, what will NEXT look like? It’s not a silly question, at all. And since the World may fall apart based on global economic consequences of War, Sanctions, Asset-Stripped Money, and little side issues like a die-off and … Read More
There is a really neat way of apprehending the nuances of futuring (watching for Observer expectations) that we kicked around Monday. It involves using a basic Boolean “truth table” to figure out where the odds are. If you want to skip this part, the bottom line (as of futures prices at 4:35 AM) looked like … Read More
Brevity makes another failed comeback attempt. As we are now in the best “working weather” of the year in East Texas. With the opening of the deer season just ahead, a week of fence line work, posting “No Hunting” signs and purple no-hunting paint looms. Fortunately, today and tomorrow look to be almost “economic news-free” … Read More