Before we “go deep” let’s get the housekeeping “news” items out of the way.
This being summer, we don’t want to work too hard, too fast, of course…, Sweat is for hourlies.
Weekly unemployment new filers look like this: Pay attention to the yellow highlights since these haven’t been buggered up with “seasonal” reworks. (We like our data ‘clean’ thanks!)
Then we get to the Philly Fed report:
“The diffusion index for current general activity edged down 1 point to 30.7 this month (see Chart 1). The index for new orders decreased 10 points to a reading of 22.2. Over 36 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders this month (down from 44 percent last month), while 14 percent reported decreases (up from 11 percent). The current shipments index rose 6 points to 27.2 in June. Over 41 percent of the firms reported increases in shipments this month, while 14 percent reported decreases.
After the Fed meeting Wednesday, we can see the market feeling a sense of hesitation. “Where, or where, will the FREE MONEY come from?” they’re wailing.
Short answer: Risk capital supposedly has long-term tax breaks to compensate for risk…at least that was the Big Lie told at the beginning. In a world awash in dead pools of free money? Well, it should be fun to watch.
A FEW minutes after the data came out, it was looking like a down 1/2 percent day on markets…don’t hold me to it. This is “Anything Goes Day.”
We’ve been watching the Elliott wave count evolve on the downside of Lumber prices. Under the $970 handle, as we told you to expect. Still on track is our fall deck replacement project. Which will be affordable by then.
My friend Chris Tyreman did a video this week which jumps into where’s the wood go and why such high prices:
Also a bit perplexing if you glance at it, is the oddly coordinated drop in the PGM (platinum-gold metals group) down on average around 3% this morning.
If there’s a big inflation fear, then PGM’s should be screaming higher as markets collapse, right?
Well, not really: The unifying-underlying linkage is all about U.S. dollar strength. When the dollar is strong, it takes “fewer dollars to buy the Dow, the lumber, and yes – even the gold, silver, and platinum.”
On the other hand, must be something going on with weather because the food sector of commodities is “uppish.”
Mainly beef is going up…but plentiful rain early hasn’t driven food prices through the roof. One of our vegan-leaning readers offered that “I say pray more people become vegetarians, 1 lb of beef takes 1800 gallons of water to produce.”
While that’s close, fact is all mammals – even people – need a minimum of about 1 gallon of water per day per 100 pounds of body weight. Real beef details over here. We can save climate through population reduction, right?
However, vegan zealots who then say “Think how much more food could be grown if you raised something other than beef!” have missed some facts.
This part of Texas is big beef country because cows eat grass. Vegans don’t. And since Slow Joe killed Keystone and such, the conversion cost from naturally seeding grass to row-cropping is ridiculous, especially when the grass holds in moisture.
But hay! (lol)
If you’re a vegan, I got some grassland you can eat.
Lost in Space
Yep. America has lost in space again: If you haven’t been keeping up with class try this Washington Post EXPLAINER: The significance of China’s new space station. Hmm… since Jeff Bezos is going up there, the least any good suck-up reporter could have done was gotta a snazzy quote from the Boss.
I know – not our job to fix the Washington Post. Hard enough keeping this little site working. Still… resume material and suck points matter, I’d have thought.
Sniping at Headlines
Someone wants your money: EU recommends lifting coronavirus restrictions on US tourists.
Summit yawns continue: Putin Says U.S.-Russia Summit ‘Constructive’.
Gee, yah think, Dept: Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2022 could be higher based on rising consumer prices. Hint: The bad news will be throttled during the repricing window.
Historical Revisionism becomes Critical Texas Theory in ‘Forget The Alamo’ Author Says We Have The Texas Origin Story All Wrong says the liberal (and then some) NPR.
CNN seems to be moving from climate alarmism to “crack is dangerous” in Rihanna’s Savage X Fenty line is offering crotchless, butt-revealing leggings. Butt weight! There’s more, lol…
In our “Still Dead, still Monetizing” file: Princess Diana would be ‘in complete favor’ of Prince Harry’s California move, had her own eye on Malibu: pal.
Reason is Off the Deep End
“Hear yee, hear yee! Comes now the case of Biden Economics versus Ure Reality. All rise!”
Since we have been courting disaster all week – and have beaten it off with a stick – seems only fair to launch one of our occasional trial balloons.
Counsel: “So, Ure, is it true you are a skeptic of the claims lodged by the Bidenista’s that you wantonly and recklessly impugn their efforts to preserve America’s Economy?”
Ure: “I will keep this simple, for you are a product of law school brainwashing. An idiot.
Although the former president was a “puss-chasing clown” with sides of egomania, paranoia, and let’s not leave out narcissism, he was on the path of resolving America’s abduction into a global government.
He was a successful developer. Thus, he could see how businesses rose and failed. Including and especially his own.
He therefore understood that in order for America to remain an autonomous government among hundreds, we would need to “call our own shots” as a country. Resource independence.
Counsel: “So, you are defending the former corrupt president who attempted to overthrow the government by force?”
Ure: “Don’t put words in my mouth. You lawyers and your left-wing press pals do far too much of that. What I said – you law school impaired moron – is that he instinctively knew that if we couldn’t make enough material goods – including food and energy to provide for domestic consumption – that we would fall before an onslaught of global leftist banksters of the Soros stripe. You did see where this “Hungary for power fellow” is buying lefties benches? Soros quietly drops $200,000 backing another far-left prosecutor in Virginia.
We are presently at a Great Inflection Point where – over the next two or three years – we’ll decide whether America will persist as a collection of freedom-based ideals, or be subjugated as nothing more than a brand in a Banker and Crook-owned world.”
Counsel: “Yet you call the current President’s economic success a sham and a fraud. How can you make such claims?”
Ure: “Biden doesn’t have an economic plan. He has a printing press. He has never been able to articulate any understanding of economics as a zero-sum system. Where, as Dr. Thurow pointed out, zoomed out all accounts balance.”
Counsel: “But to claim America is becoming (papers shuffle) ah…a Yard Sign Economy…What did you mean by that?”
Ure: “Stripped of an ability to make chips, consumables, and with the Bidenista’s having destroyed American Energy Independence in six short months, the effort to turn American-against-American is underway on multiple fronts: Racial, gender, climate, national origins, fund-raising, and divisive persuasion block politics.
Rather than focus on transient news, we try to keep this larger context in mind. Instead of rehashing the Fed, here are some stories that caught my eye this morning as telltales. Because these support the “yard sign” economy idea.
Now that we don’t make products – America’s new Growth Industry is picking fights rather than working things out:
- Texas’ ban on critical race theory in schools proves the GOP still doesn’t understand MLK’s message reports msnbc.com. Yet what the liberal media can’t fathom is that America should be about excellence, not quotas. Typical leftists backed brainwashing by media. To their credit, the story was labeled opinion. But we don’t have our hopes up. White shaming is an industry and watch for yard signs.
- Gender is a sales and marketing start-up in the yard sign economy, too. As Colorado Court Rules against Baker Who Refused to Make Gender Transition Cake. Gender-selling as courts, schools, and public places as an alternative to steel, energy, and electronics just feels like a crooked trade-off. Yard sign game.
- Fear selling on climate is all over, too: To Tackle Climate Change, Corporate Culture Will Need an Overhaul – Bloomberg for one. Yet, we have quietly walked light on the land for 30-years: Living on a small sailboat for 10+ and establishing a tree farm for almost 20 now. And we’re a solar co-gen operator, to boot. Out here it looks like “climate” is another yard sign industry.
- National origin fever has struck with so much vigor, being American born disqualifies home-grown poor from programs for immigrants only. Now, to our way of thinking, that’s reverse discrimination. And putting Kamala in charge of fixing it? AYFKM? Kamala Harris immigration: Texas Democratic Rep. urges VP to visit southern border. We aren’t holding our breath.
I could go on, but I’m disadvantaged because I still hold that Excellence should prevail over cheap political quotas. Sadly, I’ve always been “brain privileged.”
Counsel: “So what did you mean about the Web-Keeper Economy?”
Ure: “Economics provides us with templates. In B-school a lot is made of the
“shopkeeper economy” notion. You see, in Wikipedia, there are three specific levels to economies:
- Primary: involves the retrieval and production of raw materials, such as corn, coal, wood or iron. Coalminers, farmers and fishermen are all workers in the primary sector.)
- Secondary: involves the transformation of raw or intermediate materials into goods, as in steel into cars, or textiles into clothing. Builders and dressmakers work in the secondary sector.
- Tertiary: involves the supplying of services to consumers and businesses, such as babysitting, cinemas or banking. Shopkeepers and accountants work in the tertiary sector.
In a shopkeeper economy, you can’t do away with the primary and secondary businesses and have a shopkeepers-only country that makes any sense.
Yet, what have the Bidenista’s attacked: coal and basic energy production tools like Keystone. What we see left untouched is the fourth level that we label web-keeping. Businesses that do not provide new resource and only echo, websites and social that don’t add value, but which do support the furtherance of the Yard Sign economy. They fire up arguments.
And that’s the key point today.
Counsel: “Your witness.”
Around the Ranch
With the vegans upping their “cows and climate” clatter, I’ve booked some research time today to answer a question asked by a local cattleman:
“Say: you ever here-tell of any bakers being born in a loafing shed?”
Damned if I know, but sounds like something fun to research. I’ve been on a roll, here lately… crusty old geezer that I am…for butter or for wurst.
Write when you get rich,