Before we “go deep” let’s get the housekeeping “news” items out of the way.
This being summer, we don’t want to work too hard, too fast, of course…, Sweat is for hourlies.
Data Points
Weekly unemployment new filers look like this: Pay attention to the yellow highlights since these haven’t been buggered up with “seasonal” reworks. (We like our data ‘clean’ thanks!)
Then we get to the Philly Fed report:
“The diffusion index for current general activity edged down 1 point to 30.7 this month (see Chart 1). The index for new orders decreased 10 points to a reading of 22.2. Over 36 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders this month (down from 44 percent last month), while 14 percent reported decreases (up from 11 percent). The current shipments index rose 6 points to 27.2 in June. Over 41 percent of the firms reported increases in shipments this month, while 14 percent reported decreases.
After the Fed meeting Wednesday, we can see the market feeling a sense of hesitation. “Where, or where, will the FREE MONEY come from?” they’re wailing.
Short answer: Risk capital supposedly has long-term tax breaks to compensate for risk…at least that was the Big Lie told at the beginning. In a world awash in dead pools of free money? Well, it should be fun to watch.
A FEW minutes after the data came out, it was looking like a down 1/2 percent day on markets…don’t hold me to it. This is “Anything Goes Day.”
Commodity Check
We’ve been watching the Elliott wave count evolve on the downside of Lumber prices. Under the $970 handle, as we told you to expect. Still on track is our fall deck replacement project. Which will be affordable by then.
My friend Chris Tyreman did a video this week which jumps into where’s the wood go and why such high prices:
Also a bit perplexing if you glance at it, is the oddly coordinated drop in the PGM (platinum-gold metals group) down on average around 3% this morning.
If there’s a big inflation fear, then PGM’s should be screaming higher as markets collapse, right?
Well, not really: The unifying-underlying linkage is all about U.S. dollar strength. When the dollar is strong, it takes “fewer dollars to buy the Dow, the lumber, and yes – even the gold, silver, and platinum.”
On the other hand, must be something going on with weather because the food sector of commodities is “uppish.”
Mainly beef is going up…but plentiful rain early hasn’t driven food prices through the roof. One of our vegan-leaning readers offered that “I say pray more people become vegetarians, 1 lb of beef takes 1800 gallons of water to produce.”
While that’s close, fact is all mammals – even people – need a minimum of about 1 gallon of water per day per 100 pounds of body weight. Real beef details over here. We can save climate through population reduction, right?
However, vegan zealots who then say “Think how much more food could be grown if you raised something other than beef!” have missed some facts.
This part of Texas is big beef country because cows eat grass. Vegans don’t. And since Slow Joe killed Keystone and such, the conversion cost from naturally seeding grass to row-cropping is ridiculous, especially when the grass holds in moisture.
But hay! (lol)
If you’re a vegan, I got some grassland you can eat.
Lost in Space
Yep. America has lost in space again: If you haven’t been keeping up with class try this Washington Post EXPLAINER: The significance of China’s new space station. Hmm… since Jeff Bezos is going up there, the least any good suck-up reporter could have done was gotta a snazzy quote from the Boss.
I know – not our job to fix the Washington Post. Hard enough keeping this little site working. Still… resume material and suck points matter, I’d have thought.
Sniping at Headlines
Someone wants your money: EU recommends lifting coronavirus restrictions on US tourists.
Summit yawns continue: Putin Says U.S.-Russia Summit ‘Constructive’.
Gee, yah think, Dept: Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2022 could be higher based on rising consumer prices. Hint: The bad news will be throttled during the repricing window.
Historical Revisionism becomes Critical Texas Theory in ‘Forget The Alamo’ Author Says We Have The Texas Origin Story All Wrong says the liberal (and then some) NPR.
CNN seems to be moving from climate alarmism to “crack is dangerous” in Rihanna’s Savage X Fenty line is offering crotchless, butt-revealing leggings. Butt weight! There’s more, lol…
In our “Still Dead, still Monetizing” file: Princess Diana would be ‘in complete favor’ of Prince Harry’s California move, had her own eye on Malibu: pal.
Reason is Off the Deep End
“Hear yee, hear yee! Comes now the case of Biden Economics versus Ure Reality. All rise!”
Since we have been courting disaster all week – and have beaten it off with a stick – seems only fair to launch one of our occasional trial balloons.
Counsel: “So, Ure, is it true you are a skeptic of the claims lodged by the Bidenista’s that you wantonly and recklessly impugn their efforts to preserve America’s Economy?”
Ure: “I will keep this simple, for you are a product of law school brainwashing. An idiot.
Although the former president was a “puss-chasing clown” with sides of egomania, paranoia, and let’s not leave out narcissism, he was on the path of resolving America’s abduction into a global government.
He was a successful developer. Thus, he could see how businesses rose and failed. Including and especially his own.
He therefore understood that in order for America to remain an autonomous government among hundreds, we would need to “call our own shots” as a country. Resource independence.
Counsel: “So, you are defending the former corrupt president who attempted to overthrow the government by force?”
Ure: “Don’t put words in my mouth. You lawyers and your left-wing press pals do far too much of that. What I said – you law school impaired moron – is that he instinctively knew that if we couldn’t make enough material goods – including food and energy to provide for domestic consumption – that we would fall before an onslaught of global leftist banksters of the Soros stripe. You did see where this “Hungary for power fellow” is buying lefties benches? Soros quietly drops $200,000 backing another far-left prosecutor in Virginia.
We are presently at a Great Inflection Point where – over the next two or three years – we’ll decide whether America will persist as a collection of freedom-based ideals, or be subjugated as nothing more than a brand in a Banker and Crook-owned world.”
Counsel: “Yet you call the current President’s economic success a sham and a fraud. How can you make such claims?”
Ure: “Biden doesn’t have an economic plan. He has a printing press. He has never been able to articulate any understanding of economics as a zero-sum system. Where, as Dr. Thurow pointed out, zoomed out all accounts balance.”
Counsel: “But to claim America is becoming (papers shuffle) ah…a Yard Sign Economy…What did you mean by that?”
Ure: “Stripped of an ability to make chips, consumables, and with the Bidenista’s having destroyed American Energy Independence in six short months, the effort to turn American-against-American is underway on multiple fronts: Racial, gender, climate, national origins, fund-raising, and divisive persuasion block politics.
Rather than focus on transient news, we try to keep this larger context in mind. Instead of rehashing the Fed, here are some stories that caught my eye this morning as telltales. Because these support the “yard sign” economy idea.
Now that we don’t make products – America’s new Growth Industry is picking fights rather than working things out:
- Texas’ ban on critical race theory in schools proves the GOP still doesn’t understand MLK’s message reports msnbc.com. Yet what the liberal media can’t fathom is that America should be about excellence, not quotas. Typical leftists backed brainwashing by media. To their credit, the story was labeled opinion. But we don’t have our hopes up. White shaming is an industry and watch for yard signs.
- Gender is a sales and marketing start-up in the yard sign economy, too. As Colorado Court Rules against Baker Who Refused to Make Gender Transition Cake. Gender-selling as courts, schools, and public places as an alternative to steel, energy, and electronics just feels like a crooked trade-off. Yard sign game.
- Fear selling on climate is all over, too: To Tackle Climate Change, Corporate Culture Will Need an Overhaul – Bloomberg for one. Yet, we have quietly walked light on the land for 30-years: Living on a small sailboat for 10+ and establishing a tree farm for almost 20 now. And we’re a solar co-gen operator, to boot. Out here it looks like “climate” is another yard sign industry.
- National origin fever has struck with so much vigor, being American born disqualifies home-grown poor from programs for immigrants only. Now, to our way of thinking, that’s reverse discrimination. And putting Kamala in charge of fixing it? AYFKM? Kamala Harris immigration: Texas Democratic Rep. urges VP to visit southern border. We aren’t holding our breath.
I could go on, but I’m disadvantaged because I still hold that Excellence should prevail over cheap political quotas. Sadly, I’ve always been “brain privileged.”
Counsel: “So what did you mean about the Web-Keeper Economy?”
Ure: “Economics provides us with templates. In B-school a lot is made of the
“shopkeeper economy” notion. You see, in Wikipedia, there are three specific levels to economies:
- Primary: involves the retrieval and production of raw materials, such as corn, coal, wood or iron. Coalminers, farmers and fishermen are all workers in the primary sector.)
- Secondary: involves the transformation of raw or intermediate materials into goods, as in steel into cars, or textiles into clothing. Builders and dressmakers work in the secondary sector.
- Tertiary: involves the supplying of services to consumers and businesses, such as babysitting, cinemas or banking. Shopkeepers and accountants work in the tertiary sector.
In a shopkeeper economy, you can’t do away with the primary and secondary businesses and have a shopkeepers-only country that makes any sense.
Yet, what have the Bidenista’s attacked: coal and basic energy production tools like Keystone. What we see left untouched is the fourth level that we label web-keeping. Businesses that do not provide new resource and only echo, websites and social that don’t add value, but which do support the furtherance of the Yard Sign economy. They fire up arguments.
And that’s the key point today.
Counsel: “Your witness.”
Around the Ranch
With the vegans upping their “cows and climate” clatter, I’ve booked some research time today to answer a question asked by a local cattleman:
“Say: you ever here-tell of any bakers being born in a loafing shed?”
Damned if I know, but sounds like something fun to research. I’ve been on a roll, here lately… crusty old geezer that I am…for butter or for wurst.
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
I think the big deflation will be this fall.
Wage supports are everywhere. I’ll speak on MI. The Michigan minimum wage is $9.65.
9.65 x 40 = 386
The Governor using grants to business will “top-off” minimum to $15.00/HR. That’s a wage supplement of 5.35 per hour.
In addition,
The Governor is going to “incentivize” the unemployed by giving workers who go back to work, the $300.00 PUA as a worker bonus. That’s a second wage supplement of 7.50 per hour.
Government supplements exceed the actual minimum wage by
5.35 + 7.50 = (12.85/HR in government supplements.) 514.
Comments have been made “people may just walk away”. Is there anything left to save from the old system but the payments and supplements?
And speaking of payments. I’ve been hearing jewelry store commercials offering $12,000 interest free over 60 months. That’s $200.00 a month folks! Get $12,000 of jewelry on time for 60 easy monthlies.
Whitmer economic plan includes millions for boosted wages, small biz, childcare
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/06/03/gretchen-whitmer-economic-plan-boosted-wages-small-business-grants-no-cost-childcare/7521472002/
Whitmer: Michigan to use federal $300 unemployment bonus as back-to-work incentive
https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2021/06/14/michigan-use-federal-300-unemployment-bonus-back-work-incentive/7685662002/
“I think the big deflation will be this fall.
Wage supports are everywhere.”
Possible.. do you seriously think that prices will deflate that much to cover it all this fall??..
Could you live on fifteen dollars an hour?
Prices would have to drop a bunch and I mean a lot…. rent.. cheap in the slum rent is six hundred plus and costs.( building prices are going skyward and so will rent) . daycare for one child is two hundred plus per week and they don’t take them if they are sick.. average daycare for one child is over a grand a month and that is with govt. assistance do you seriously think that with the roughly two million kids at daycare age that they could come up with the two plus billion dollars to cover that expense.. I don’t think so.. . that just shot the fifteen bucks all to hell right there..
Health insurance.. theres another grand and that is if you can find an employer that will cover half of the cost of it.. ( around here employers don’t offer it.. and small employers.. can’t afford to..) there is couple of billion plus..
gas.. well what is it.. three bucks a gallon.. plus or minus.. there is another three hundred..
Home owners insurance.. food etc. etc.. for it to deflate to keep the economy going especially since one third of all home owners are on an eviction list and one third give or take used credit cards to keep afloat.. the list is pretty big.. so where do you cut.. drop all cable and cell phones.. that would save you three to four hundred.. we pay three for cable.. cell phone it depends on what you have.. quit buying at the mall.. eat rice and pasta.. OH wait those at the bottom already are..
the noodle is crumbling on that table.. and seriously you don’t have to be a harvard economics grad to see it at this point..from my perspective there would have to be a mass forgiveness of debt or a total reset..
But then what do I know.. I am already at the bottom.. and no one wants to see what is coming.. congress spending like there is no tomorrow sure isn’t going to help at this point..
anyway that is all from my perspective.. I may be wrong and they may have a rabbit they can pull out of that sack.. but.. I doubt it..
things were extremely fragile when they went option 2.. they should have gone option 1 but I get it…those in the want more directory wouldn’t have ever gone with that..
“with the roughly two million kids at daycare age”
in Michigan alone….
Could I live on $15.00? If I had too….
The 9.65/HR MI worker is being given government supplements of 12.85/HR for a total of 22.50 per hour worked.
I guess that means the business that hires minimum wage workers is no longer a going concern. They can’t afford labor. And never will be able to afford labor again at this rate.
The U.S. economy can no longer function without direct government intervention, in MI anyway.
That makes the person who legitimately pulled 22.50 an HR now equivalent to minimum wage.
ruttabegga – “Knock knock”
Vlad – “Who’s there ?”
World leaders, observers, Innocent Bystanders(prisonslaves) – “Nobody! ”
Dude G – needz to call the national Missing Persons (braincells) Hotline.
An incredible show of mental debility on display for the whole world to wonder at.
Which of the 2 meeting participants do U think have read and “distilled”
the fart of war – general tso…..unh had a bribem moment -apologies – Which 1 of the 2 meeting participants would guess have even read The Art of War -Sun Tzu ?
..thinking hear the Summer is going to be hotter than usual – aint that right Mr Pooooooteen ?…” Theres No Happiness in Life, There’s Only Mirage on the Horizon” 6/16/21 _VP
Holy Cow Gman ! p = braincell
Today sure looks like a golden opportunity to acquire some pm’s and other hard commodities on the relative cheap this fine morning
.
Unfortunately for coot this month – TGB turned into a Cup & Saucer, instead of a Cup & Handle..hate that when that happens – hence the reason for hedging.
All this means- at least to coot, that the new definition of TRANSITORY, according to g-roam kerrPOW!, is Commodity Buying Oppotrtunity…”I will gladly pay you, fedcoin, Tuesday(2022) for a real meat hamburger today” -geeroamkerPOW https://youtu.be/xs1kLkxOmqY
Since I dont fight the fed, too often, its time to go price shopping in geeroams Gold/Silver/Copper bargain basement – hey Chynah can you provide statistical/actual/any kind of proof rice controls have ever worked in modern history?
George, Ure PUNishing us all today!
Getting serious, let’s not forget the quaternary sector: The regulators and bureaucrats. These people make a living out of stifling the output and utility of the other three sectors. While there may be a point to minimal regulation, such as the prevention of theft and fraud, most such regulation and regulators are parasitic upon the real economy. We have so much of it today that the only hope is the underground sector. That’s certainly one reason that illegal weed still sells better than legal weed(FWIW, I don’t use). The entire police/prosecutor/jail paradigm is simply more of the same parasitic sector. Yes, we need law enforcement, but as always, we only need the minimum necessary to get ‘er done. The jails and prisons are not “correctional” facilities, they’re only useful to keep criminals(and others) off the streets while they hone their skills for when they return to prey on society. If there’s no victim, there’s no crime, but there’s still major profit for those who invest in this sector.
I truly wonder if there’s any hope for society. Individuals can survive and even thrive, but can society? Is every society destined to grow, thrive, and then decay absolutely? Must we endure a new dark age?
Venezuela keeps coming to mind. It’s the ideal location for a spaceport and has massive oil reserves, yet still needs to import refined products. That could easily change in a few short years if it wasn’t for the quaternary sector.
Hi George…
Not rich and stand little chance of ever being, but writing anyway.
Speaking of levels of economics, a book you and readers may or may not have run across yet is Charles Walters’ “Unforgiven – an American Economic System Sold for Debt and War”
https://www.amazon.com//Unforgiven-Charles-Walters-2002-07-01/dp/B01FKRS1PS/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=charles+walters+unforgiven&qid=1623942588&sr=8-2
Very few of us realize just how fragile our economy is, and how initially dependent we are upon those in the primary sector. No farmers/ranchers = no food. How many of us have the time, know-how and a place to produce our own food? A single farmer can support the output of about 2 non-farmers. And so the pyramid expands. Something to think about.
The book is quite readable and more than a little sobering.
(Please just sign me ‘Calyn’. Thanks)
That fact means little to the upside down thinking of the Communists in hiding in today’s political world. You might be interested in giving a listen to a gentleman from Romania that went through his country’s high inflation (it was never OFFISHULLY called “hyper-“) and how he and his family got through it. The Communists confiscated his father’s steam engine and threshing machine “for the greater good”, couldn’t figure out how to run it so, eventually, hired his father at a horrendously cheap rate to run it. Typical thinking of these people.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_8LF-QrJc-3h_XcE2qQA9g/videos
thanks for sharing Bill.. that was really enlightening..
AMEN Calyn…..
Many don’t see what those at the bottom are doing.. tax cuts for the rich who hide their wealth either through the loopholes in the tax code or offshore.. and expect those flipping burgers or waiting tables to pay for it all…
george what address do i post mail 2? the truth is out there i see , can you handle the truth ? anyway how about a bit of dean martin !! when the moon hits your eye like a big pizza pie thats deflation !!! and a bit of eye of the tiger for the USD . careful telling too many stories and roaming in mass vege herds . USD gunna get yah
Ure’s postal stuffy is
319 An County Rd 4416
Palestine, TX 75803
In, while it’s still, the semi “United States”
Trump’s appointed Justice Bremer wouldn’t let Texas Republicans reject Obamacare, since State of Texas does not levy fines for not having health insurance (some States do), guess yer stuck with excellent and reasonably priced healthcare (Elaine’s $100+ surgeries) , despite your hatred of it’s Democratic origins and named after a Black man!
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-06-17/supreme-court-upholds-obamacare-again-rejecting-gop-challenge-from-texas
Seaweed will help those cows reduce their methane emissions by 82%:
https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/feeding-cattle-seaweed-reduces-their-greenhouse-gas-emissions-82-percent
Grain fed cows (where most of their water costs come from – not the cow’s own daily rwater requirement) are not as healthy as free range grass fed cows, and buffalo
are even more environmentally friendly:
https://www.westernwatersheds.org/gw-cattle-v-bison/
Congrats again on getting yer site up and running so quickly (will you let us in on the costs and more details…about the guy who died, etc?)…and thanks to the ‘listener’ who recommnded Delbert McClinton,
interview w/ McClinton: (he hit 80!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9HbDsVqIKI
Lone Star Blues:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYfb3pXdbp4
troller, can you please provide us a reference or quote where George lamented that the ACA was colloquially named after Mr. Obama? You have impugned that he opposes the ACA on the grounds of being a racist. Show evidence, or I submit to this forum that you should be banned.
You are right CJ, I made a facetious bash (does anyone on this site have a sense of humor besides George?) he hasn’t specifically bashed on ACA care per se (but the rest of the Republican universe fought tooth and nail to dump ACA, without having a comparable replacement). George has/had been on the Obama/Democrats ‘autobash’ bandwagon for years (they are all Commie Socialists bringing us to ruin, according to George), in case you haven’t noticed. Sorry for my stupid ‘bashback’ attempt, and sorry for your own lack of humor about it.
Ban me! The UrbSurv party will not allow criticism or satire! Tow the party line, Chairman CJ!
My real goal is not to achieve harmonious consensus.
I just want the sells arms to both sides franchise.
Ain’t that the ‘Merican way?
Which wave book are you peeps using?? I’m using the “Frost & Prechter Elliot Wave Principle” Second Printing May 2020.
The glossary says:
Double Zigzag – Combination of two simple sub waves, labeled W and Y, separated by a corrective wave labeled X.
Look at Gold. I’d say the “X”wave ended June 11th which started March 8th. Now gold will be punished by the “Y” wave
The wave from 7/8/2020 to March 8th was not a Double Three or Triple Three so I’ve ruled those patterns out.
“We can save climate through population reduction, right?”
For us humans it would be the ONLY way,
all other discussions about it is major B/S.
Suspicious 0bervers Ben laid out how Universe takes care of that for us every 12,000 years or so coming to a planet near you soon. I’d recommend a concrete sarcophagus if you don’t plan on being here in the next ten years or so. I do – with or without health insurance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEv3HRIVPUQ
Wow 13.37 !!! Wow 13.37 !!!!! George baby and all my mates here brace yourself!!! Here come da juice !!! Bang
when it will all get interesting is…. IF… there are poor crops this year along with the economic turmoil already here.. and it will accelerate if there are poor crops again next year.. fear the walking dead..
Texas revisionist history claims the defenders of the Alamo were summarily executed. Was that ever really in doubt? The spin the revisionists put on that act of political terrorism agrees with my view: the defenders of the Alamo were victims of ethnic cleansing mass murder committed by military religious zealots. The defenders of the Alamo were martyred heroes of the highest order. Forget the revisionists, and remember what annexation of Texas by religious statists of any sort would entail. Freedom of religion requires an absence of a State religion.