After the Internet Bubble collapsed in 2000-2004, we came up with a “better mousetrap” way of looking at Markets.
Instead of looking at a single stock, or a single index, we decided that the “right way” to size up any (global financial) Casino would be to keep track of the TOTAL HANDLE. That is, how much money is “in play.”
Today, we’re pondering a damn-strange fact: When this logic is applied to the U.S. Markets (as an aggregate) we aren’t going anywhere:
What’s even more interesting is how the (various) players are trying to smooth-over what – in the longer view of data sets – may arguably be a long-term market top. You can look at comparisons with the 2006-2008 topping process before the Housing Bubble blew over. Or, as we prefer, the “gold standard” of collapse: 1929.
No matter how we cut it, though: We are watching the world’s best financial engineers trying to “paper their way through” disaster.
Promises to be quite the show – and a “surprise ending” is possible. Which will show up on our Peoplenomics subscriber side one of these days.
A Foo and His Goo, Dept.
“A Fool and his Gold are soon parted,” advised Thomas Tusser. (In a Mandela Effect check, though, Shakespeare said it on a different worldline…)
And so, while we have missed a second (or, is it third?) chance to become multimillionaires in Life, we’ve at least held to Core Values.
But let’s talk about Cryptos, anyway: Mark Cuban ‘Hit’ by Titan Crypto Crash As Coin’s Price Falls to Near Zero, reports newsweek.com.
Digital Warfare Rages
Fighting continues on the Digital Front: Internet outage: Airlines and bank websites go down in another major failure.
However, Allied Forces claim Police Bust Major Ransomware Gang Cl0p over on Vice.
Human progress has taken us from teenage gunslingers a century and a half back to codeslingers of today. Yep. Progress, that…
The early quote on BTC was down to $37,682 after kissing $40,000 earlier this week. The physics lesson? Do dead cats bounce if you get ’em high enough?
It’s not just Cryptos having their “Come to Jesus” moment, either: “Tesla and Other Bubble Stocks Have Deflated Just Like 2000, mentions the Wall Street Journal.
With the price of Lumber, breaking to the $900 handle this morning, and with copper only hesitating in its similarly dramatic fall, it’s enough to suggest that hyper-inflation’s arrival may not be so sudden, after all.
Mainstream Financial Press types – who hyped the (pardon this) living shit out of how lumber prices “…will add $40k to new home prices…” have gone strangely mute when the shoe is on the other foot.
With the Fed talking a rate hike in 2023, seems to us an End of the Long Wave Turning Point is upon us.
The last major interest-rate turn was the top in 1980-81 Oh, which was also a major recession period – I forget to mention these things sometimes – must be getting old, huh?
At any rate, this year the ultra-long-term slide of interest rates will pass 40. And this means what? The Long Wave Economic cycle is alive and well. What shows up to aid recovery, many times, is War. So be ready for the bum’s rush on Defense Spending.
The Federal Flywheel
Various economists over the years have argued that what drives economic recovery from all-time chuck-holes (like rates bottoming) is government spending.
We’ve explained many times in past columns how this works: Federal and other government employees pull-ahead of private-sector working stiffs like mad when times get bad.
Fact is, one of Elaine’s boys asked us about going to work for that big quasi-government place that moves packages and mail. Elaine was appalled, but my advice was “Hell yeah! Government’s the Big Growth Industry!”
Well, since that call more than a decade back, it has proven some of my best advice – ever!
Mr. Smug points to With Juneteenth, Federal Employees Now Get 44 Paid Days Off Each Year. I’m lobbying for a Native American holiday to balance things up a bit (everyone’s in the quota-checking business now).
Yet more evidence of the “flywheel effect” of government. Why, we could enjoy the economic equivalent of the Works Progress Administration – without having to admit to any economic malaise! Just add Holidays!
SupCo: ACA Economics?
Here’s your “Economic Conspiracy Theory du jour: We’re wondering if the decision wherein Court maintained the Affordable Care Act was because to end it now would throw the country into economic Depression, almost certainly?
Again, Massive Public healthcare – as long as average lifespans don’t go up too much (and CV19 helped, right), then it is economic stimulus, pure and simple.
Not that we’re complaining: Since our out of pocket for two total hip replacements for Elaine will be $4,500 max. Thanks, Medicare Advantage plans!
Speaking of the darling-missus who is now totally hip: She’s walking without a cane or walker, and looking as close to normal as you’ll find. Our cameras followed her to physical therapy Thursday morning:
People have a tough time believing she was born in ’43. Her amazing “age-proofing” offers a grand plot for a novel I have in mind. When time permits.
[I’ve never been clear on why readers prefer looking at pictures of Elaine and not me…hmm….]
Speaking of Eye Treats
Did you see where Victoria’s Secret DITCHES ‘Angels’ supermodels to redefine sexy with ‘diverse high-achievers’ like Megan Rapinoe? No, of course you didn’t notice. (Liar!)
Enough of the spoils of Life. Let’s get back to the killing and maiming department, shall we?
Our pet theory is they’re simply lost. No dunes and mountains to climb out in the Atlantic…
Climate Change Tracking
As the drought continues to settle-in over the West, two personal notes:
The first is that if you’re planning to head for Las Vegas, youngest daughter visiting there says a single Banana at a hotel is over $2.50, now. She’s also keeping an eye on Lake Mead water shortage: The shocking numbers behind the crisis.
Then there’s the firefighter/EMT son who’s expecting to go out on wildland fires, shortly. In fact, just to the right (on a map) of the Salt River project (and down a bit) “Telegraph and Mescal wildfires: Multiple Arizona communities evacuated, reports the Arizona Republic. 172,000 acres up in smoke.
This heatwave stuff has also started getting attention back east: ‘Mega-heat wave’ is peaking in the West, breaking records and intensifying drought, fires.
ENSO at work – that’s the el Nino North-South Oscillation. Made marketable by labeling it “climate change…”
Also check the visuals in Massive cloud Saharan dust sweeps over Atlantic toward US from AccuWeather.
Meantime, Texas news tipster Linda in Houston’s been eyeing the evolution of “Potential tropical Cyclone #3” – likely to make Missasloppy in coming days:
How about we christen the impact area LaMiBama? Nice ring to it…
We’ll supposedly get 3/4-inch of rain Monday. But I’ll hold off mowing until Sunday. Short grass seems to brown-out faster in the summer heat. And that “golf course look” is nice while it lasts.
New Madrid Jits?
Not exactly, but when the middle of the American continent makes noise, there is some reason to worry Magnitude 3.8 Earthquake Reported In Western Indiana; Some Felt It In Chicago Area.
Big Weekend Ahead
Summer shop notes in Sunday’s column.
Special Saturday Ham Radio edition because weekend after this is Ham Radio Field Day 2021. Rules and operating guidelines over here.
Peoplenomics tomorrow will update the charts.
And Ure’s truly will be plugging away on the new book with another chapter coming for PN subscribers next Wednesday.
Write when you get rich,